Core Insights - The report highlights a selection of stocks for November, including China Eastern Airlines, COSCO Shipping, and CATL, indicating potential investment opportunities in these companies [1] - The report emphasizes the performance of Shantui Construction Machinery, which reported a revenue of 10.488 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.36%, and a net profit of 838 million yuan, up 15.67% [9][10] - Longi Green Energy's third-quarter report shows a significant reduction in losses, with a net profit of -3.403 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, compared to -6.505 billion yuan in the same period last year, indicating operational stability [13][14] Fixed Income - The report discusses the outlook for bond market yields, suggesting that in the context of a "slow bull" market for A-shares and stagnant housing prices, long-term yields may remain in a volatile range [6][7] - It notes that low interest rates are often linked to low financing demand and asset values, with a historical comparison to Japan's low-rate era [6][7] Mechanical Equipment - Shantui Construction Machinery is identified as a leading manufacturer of bulldozers, with ongoing expansion in excavator and mining machinery businesses, and growth in overseas markets expected to enhance its growth potential [9][10][11] - The company achieved a gross margin of 20.53% and a net margin of 8.01% in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting effective cost control [11] Power Equipment - Longi Green Energy's performance shows a recovery trend, with a focus on optimizing gross margins and cash flow, and a strategic push against "involution" in the industry [13][15] - The company reported stable sales volumes for silicon wafers and components, with a notable increase in the sales of high-value BC components, indicating a competitive advantage [14][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - In the scenario where the A - share market turns into a "slow - bull" and housing prices do not rebound significantly, long - term bond yields are likely to remain in a volatile pattern, and the low - interest - rate state will basically stay the same [5][84][85]. - In the long run, China is probably in the "bear - steepening" phase of the yield curve as it emerges from the low - interest - rate state, but the speed of "bear - steepening" is uncertain. Long - term yields are expected to rise ahead of short - term yields, and short - term yields will tend to be stable before long - term yields continue to rise [5][84]. - The relationship between China's long - term yields and the real estate cycle has strengthened in recent years. The new 500 billion yuan policy - based financial instruments and the newly issued 500 billion yuan local government debt may ensure that the social financing growth rate at the end of this year is roughly similar to that at the end of the third quarter, without a significant increase [5][84]. - The central bank's decision to resume Treasury bond trading reflects its intention to maintain yield stability, and the bond market's volatile pattern may become more obvious. The base - money injection effect of Treasury bond trading may replace reserve requirement ratio cuts [5][84]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Low - Interest - Rate Period: Japan's Experience - The root cause of low interest rates is generally relatively low financing demand, and low interest rates and low asset values (except for fixed - income assets) are often two sides of the same coin. Japan entered a low - interest - rate era after the asset bubble burst in the 1990s [13]. - From 1990 - 1998, Japan's interest rates declined rapidly. The Bank of Japan cut interest rates 9 times from 1991 - 1995, and the 10 - year Japanese government bond yield dropped from about 8% in 1990 to below 1% in September 1998 [13]. - After 1998, Japanese bond yields entered a new low - level range. Japan's economy remained in a low - inflation state until the post - pandemic period when inflation increased, leading to a turning point in its long - term loose monetary policy [13]. - When the main inflation indicators (such as CPI growth) fluctuate around 0, short - term interest rates like the 1 - year Treasury bond yield may hit the bottom. Japan's CPI mainly fluctuated around 0 from the late 1990s to 2021, and the bond market did not react significantly to tax - induced inflation [16]. - During the low - interest - rate period, Japanese residents' risk appetite was low, and their cash and deposit scales grew rapidly. Japanese financial institutions' risk appetite weakened from the late 1990s to the first decade of the 21st century, with bonds replacing loans to some extent. The Japanese stock market rebounded first, but long - term yields did not rise until both housing and stock prices increased recently [19][21]. - Japan's real estate bubble burst in the 1990s, and housing prices remained low. The household leverage ratio stagnated and then declined in 2000, but increased again after 2020, followed by a real - estate market rebound [23][25]. - The relationship between asset prices and long - term interest rates may be based on the "balance - sheet effect." The bursting of the stock and housing bubbles in Japan led to a decline in long - term interest rates, while their subsequent rebounds may have repaired the household balance sheets [25]. 3.2 China's Bond Market and Inflation - China's recent inflation shows CPI remaining flat and PPI declining, similar to Japan's inflation trend since the early 1990s. Core CPI has stabilized, but food prices have offset core inflation, keeping CPI slightly down year - on - year [28][29]. - Food price growth has been restricted due to slow - growing catering consumption, which may be persistent. Short - term attention should be paid to the impact of climate and pests on the supply of edible agricultural products [30][31]. - PPI has been flat month - on - month and stable year - on - year. Since October 2022, it has declined year - on - year for 36 months, which may be affected by real - estate and export prices. Future PPI trends may affect CPI [35][37]. 3.3 China's Bond Market and Foreign Trade Environment - Since the trade friction this year, China's export volume has not been significantly affected. Exports to the US have declined, but those to the EU have increased, and those to Japan have been stable. Exports to ASEAN have offset the decline in exports to the US, EU, and Japan [41]. - The US's import tariff increase since April has negatively affected its foreign trade. The trade deficit as a percentage of GDP decreased from over 6% in Q1 to 3.5% in Q2, which is related to tariffs and the cooling of the US employment market [43]. - The main risk in the US employment market may come from the real - estate market. Production - type employment in the US private non - farm sector has not recovered to the pre - "subprime mortgage crisis" level, and service - type employment is a lagging variable, while production - type employment may be a leading variable [47]. - The US has recently experienced local credit risk exposure, and mortgage delinquency rates have increased. The impact of US credit risk exposure on trade policies and import demand needs to be analyzed in different scenarios [52][59]. - Although China's overall export volume is growing, the export price index declined year - on - year from July to September. Maintaining an appropriate level of exports to the US is significant for domestic inflation [58]. 3.4 China's Bond Market and Real Estate Market - The relationship between China's long - term yields and the real - estate cycle has strengthened in recent years, with household loan growth as the main transmission mechanism. Since 2021, the slowdown in household loan growth has affected long - term yields [61]. - China's household loan - to - GDP ratio has stabilized recently, similar to Japan's situation during the real - estate price trough. The sales area of commercial residential buildings is still bottom - fishing, and it will take time for the real - estate market to fully rebound [63][64]. 3.5 China's Bond Market and Incremental Policy Tools - Infrastructure investment affects long - term yields from the perspective of capital demand. In recent quarters, the sum of infrastructure and real - estate investment has declined [66]. - The newly established 500 billion yuan policy - based financial instruments and the newly issued 500 billion yuan local government debt are expected to ensure that the social financing growth rate at the end of this year is roughly similar to that at the end of the third quarter, without a significant increase [68][73]. 3.6 China's Bond Market and Monetary Policy: Implications of Resuming Treasury Bond Trading - The central bank's decision to resume Treasury bond trading reflects its intention to maintain yield stability. The price - discovery function of Treasury bond trading is more important than its liquidity - adjustment function [75]. - The resumption of Treasury bond trading may provide a channel for base - money injection, which may replace reserve requirement ratio cuts. Different scenarios of base - money injection will lead to different M2 growth rates [78][79]. 3.7 Conclusion and Outlook - Based on Japan's experience, China's short - term bond yields are mainly determined by monetary policy, while long - term yields are related to real - estate cycles. China's inflation is affected by core CPI, food prices, real - estate, and export prices [26][83]. - For long - term yields, three scenarios are possible: A - share turns "slow - bull" but housing prices do not rebound, long - term yields will fluctuate; A - share rises rapidly and housing prices rebound, long - term yields will rise; A - share has a turning point, long - term yields will fall again. The first scenario is the benchmark scenario [84][85].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Asset price recovery and systematic inflation restoration are conditions for the continuous rise of long - term yields. In the scenario of the A - share market transitioning to a "slow - bull" and no significant increase in housing prices, China's long - term yields may stabilize [2]. - On October 10, Trump issued a new tariff threat with an intended effective date of November 1. If China and the US can manage their differences quickly, the impact on the international financial market may be limited. The US economic slowdown signals are more obvious, and the impact of new tariffs on US Treasury bonds may be less than that of the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" [2]. - The outcome of the US government "shutdown" affects US Treasury bonds. If Democrats in Congress compromise, it is positive for US Treasury bonds; otherwise, it is negative. The US economic growth highly depends on information technology investment, and stock market volatility may cause economic stagnation. The US debt market also faces the uncertainty of the US Supreme Court's ruling on tariff policies [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs High - Frequency Data Scanning - **Bond Yields and Asset Prices**: Low interest rates are usually due to low financing demand. Low interest rates and low asset valuations are interrelated. In Japan, when major inflation indicators fluctuated around 0, short - term interest rates bottomed out. Long - term yields are closely related to asset prices. After short - term rates bottomed out in the 1990s, long - term yields continued to decline during the housing price downturn. Only recently, with the joint increase in housing and stock prices, have Japanese long - term interest rates risen. In the scenario of A - shares transitioning to a "slow - bull" and no significant increase in housing prices, China's long - term yields may stabilize [2][11][12]. - **US Tariff Threat**: On October 10, Trump issued a tariff threat scheduled to take effect on November 1. If differences are managed quickly, the impact on the international financial market may be limited. The US economic slowdown signals are more obvious, and new tariffs may have less impact on US Treasury bonds. The outcome of the government "shutdown" affects US Treasury bonds. US economic growth depends on information technology investment, and stock market volatility may lead to economic stagnation. The US debt market faces uncertainty from the US Supreme Court's tariff policy ruling [2][13][17]. - **Production Data**: In the week of October 10, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 2.66% week - on - week and 25.02% year - on - year; the Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased by 2.54% week - on - week and decreased by 23.38% year - on - year. The edible agricultural product price index increased by 0.60% week - on - week on September 26. The production data price index remained flat week - on - week on September 26 [2][21]. High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - The report provides multiple charts showing the relationships between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators, such as the relationship between the RJ/CRB price index year - on - year and export amount year - on - year, and the relationship between the production data price index year - on - year and PPI industrial year - on - year [26][28]. Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - The report presents charts on US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rates, initial jobless claims and unemployment rates, same - store sales growth rates and PCE year - on - year, etc., as well as the implied prospects of the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank for interest rate hikes or cuts [99][101][108]. Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - The report shows the seasonal trends of high - frequency data through charts, including the seasonal trends of indicators such as the average daily production of crude steel (decadal) and the production data price index [110]. High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The report provides charts on the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [166][167][173].