Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Asset price recovery and systematic inflation restoration are conditions for the continuous rise of long - term yields. In the scenario of the A - share market transitioning to a "slow - bull" and no significant increase in housing prices, China's long - term yields may stabilize [2]. - On October 10, Trump issued a new tariff threat with an intended effective date of November 1. If China and the US can manage their differences quickly, the impact on the international financial market may be limited. The US economic slowdown signals are more obvious, and the impact of new tariffs on US Treasury bonds may be less than that of the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" [2]. - The outcome of the US government "shutdown" affects US Treasury bonds. If Democrats in Congress compromise, it is positive for US Treasury bonds; otherwise, it is negative. The US economic growth highly depends on information technology investment, and stock market volatility may cause economic stagnation. The US debt market also faces the uncertainty of the US Supreme Court's ruling on tariff policies [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs High - Frequency Data Scanning - **Bond Yields and Asset Prices**: Low interest rates are usually due to low financing demand. Low interest rates and low asset valuations are interrelated. In Japan, when major inflation indicators fluctuated around 0, short - term interest rates bottomed out. Long - term yields are closely related to asset prices. After short - term rates bottomed out in the 1990s, long - term yields continued to decline during the housing price downturn. Only recently, with the joint increase in housing and stock prices, have Japanese long - term interest rates risen. In the scenario of A - shares transitioning to a "slow - bull" and no significant increase in housing prices, China's long - term yields may stabilize [2][11][12]. - **US Tariff Threat**: On October 10, Trump issued a tariff threat scheduled to take effect on November 1. If differences are managed quickly, the impact on the international financial market may be limited. The US economic slowdown signals are more obvious, and new tariffs may have less impact on US Treasury bonds. The outcome of the government "shutdown" affects US Treasury bonds. US economic growth depends on information technology investment, and stock market volatility may lead to economic stagnation. The US debt market faces uncertainty from the US Supreme Court's tariff policy ruling [2][13][17]. - **Production Data**: In the week of October 10, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 2.66% week - on - week and 25.02% year - on - year; the Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased by 2.54% week - on - week and decreased by 23.38% year - on - year. The edible agricultural product price index increased by 0.60% week - on - week on September 26. The production data price index remained flat week - on - week on September 26 [2][21]. High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - The report provides multiple charts showing the relationships between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators, such as the relationship between the RJ/CRB price index year - on - year and export amount year - on - year, and the relationship between the production data price index year - on - year and PPI industrial year - on - year [26][28]. Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - The report presents charts on US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rates, initial jobless claims and unemployment rates, same - store sales growth rates and PCE year - on - year, etc., as well as the implied prospects of the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank for interest rate hikes or cuts [99][101][108]. Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - The report shows the seasonal trends of high - frequency data through charts, including the seasonal trends of indicators such as the average daily production of crude steel (decadal) and the production data price index [110]. High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The report provides charts on the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [166][167][173].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The next - stage monetary policy may focus on maintaining ample liquidity while preventing the use of liquidity for long - bond speculation. The 1 - year Treasury bond yield may stabilize around the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate, and the DR007 rate's fluctuation center may approach the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate. The upward adjustment pressure on long - term yields may ease, but reasons for a downward trend are insufficient [3]. - The US 2Q GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was revised up by 0.5 percentage points to 3.8%, but the year - on - year growth rate dropped to 2%. The US GDP growth may slow down. The US PCE inflation expanded in August, but the sustainability of consumer demand expansion is questionable. If the Fed cuts interest rates slowly, it may later be forced to cut them faster [3]. - The producer price index continued to decline month - on - month. The average wholesale price of pork and the price index of edible agricultural products decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities in September 2025 was slightly lower than that in September 2024 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Prudence Perspective on Long - Term Yields - The third - quarter regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee proposed to strengthen the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, observe and evaluate the bond market from a macro - prudent perspective, and pay attention to changes in long - term yields. The next - stage monetary policy may focus on maintaining liquidity while preventing long - bond speculation [3]. - The 1 - year Treasury bond yield approaching the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate may reflect the market's expectation of no interest rate cuts or hikes. The DR007 rate's fluctuation center is higher than the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate. To cooperate with fiscal policies, the 1 - year Treasury bond yield may stabilize around the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate, and the DR007 rate may further approach it. The upward adjustment pressure on long - term yields may ease, but a downward trend is unlikely [3]. 3.2 US GDP Data Revision and PCE Price Increase - The US 2Q GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was revised up by 0.5 percentage points to 3.8%, but the year - on - year growth rate dropped to 2%. Given the slowdown in non - farm employment growth, US GDP growth may slow down [3]. - The year - on - year increase in the US PCE price in August expanded by 0.1 percentage points to 2.7%. The expansion of PCE inflation was mainly due to the rebound in the nominal growth rate of personal consumption, but the consumer confidence index in September dropped. The sustainability of consumer demand expansion is questionable. If the Fed cuts interest rates slowly, it may later be forced to cut them faster [3]. 3.3 Producer Price Index and Commodity Prices - In the week of September 27, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.94% month - on - month and 25.25% year - on - year. The Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased by 0.89% month - on - month and decreased by 32.56% year - on - year. The price index of edible agricultural products in the week of September 19 decreased by 0.10% month - on - month and 13.24% year - on - year [3]. - Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices increased by 1.50% and 1.02% respectively on average week - on - week. The average weekly price of LME copper spot increased by 0.74%, and that of aluminum decreased by 1.95%. The copper - gold ratio decreased by 1.53% week - on - week [3]. - The domestic cement price index increased by 2.03% week - on - week, the South China iron ore index decreased by 0.04% on average week - on - week, the operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of over 2 million tons decreased by 0.16% week - on - week, the inventory of rebar decreased by 2.75% week - on - week, and the rebar price index increased by 0.18% week - on - week. The producer price index in the week of September 19 decreased by 0.20% month - on - month and 5.11% year - on - year [3]. 3.4 Real Estate Market - From September 1 - 25, 2025, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was about 21.8 million square meters per day, slightly lower than the 22.9 million square meters per day in September 2024 [3]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The report presents various high - frequency data, including domestic long - and short - term interest rate indicators, US non - farm employment and economic growth, US personal consumption growth, and high - frequency data's week - on - week changes [3][11][14]. - It also shows the comparison between high - frequency data and important macro - indicators, important high - frequency indicators in the US and Europe, the seasonal trends of high - frequency data, and high - frequency traffic data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [6].

巴克莱：解雇鲍威尔恐将适得其反 金十数据7月21日讯，巴克莱利率策略团队在最新报告中警告，解雇美联储主席鲍威尔非但不会加速 FOMC降息进程，反而可能引发政策反噬。报告指出："若市场质疑美联储独立性导致通胀预期升温、 长期收益率攀升，FOMC甚至可能延长按兵不动周期或重启加息。"策略师认为，即便任命新美联储主 席也难以实质性放宽货币政策，因其仍需与其他11位FOMC票委达成共识。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rise in long-term yields is partially attributed to concerns regarding government fiscal policies [1] Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller highlights that part of the increase in long-term interest rates is linked to worries about government finances [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that long-term yields are rising amid concerns from overseas buyers [1] Group 1 - The increase in long-term yields is linked to worries expressed by international investors [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Market concerns about the adverse impact of large - scale tax cuts and weak demand for the 20 - year US Treasury bond auction led to a significant rise in long - term yields and a sharp decline in US stock indices. Multiple departments issued policies to support small and micro - enterprise financing, aiming to ease their financing difficulties and stabilize market expectations. It is expected that the stock index will continue its recovery trend [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Policy support for small and micro - enterprises: Eight departments including the Financial Regulatory Administration jointly issued measures to increase the supply of various types of loans, guide banks to manage loan interest rates, and reduce additional loan fees. Overseas, a new tax bill extended Trump's tax - cut policies and cut government spending, causing concerns about increased federal debt. The 20 - year US Treasury bond auction had poor results, indicating weak market demand [1] - Stock index performance: A - share indices rose. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.21% to 3387.57 points, and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.83%. Coal, non - ferrous metals, and power equipment sectors led the gains, while beauty care, electronics, media, and social services sectors declined. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was around 1.2 trillion yuan. US stock indices fell, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 1.91% to 41860.44 points. In the futures market, only the basis of IH recovered, the trading volume of IF increased, and the open interest of IC rose [2] 2. Strategy - The market's concerns about the tax bill and weak Treasury bond auction demand led to a decline in US stocks. The policies for small and micro - enterprises are expected to help the stock index continue to recover [3] 3. Macro - economic Charts - Include charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury bond yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury bond yields and A - share style trends [6][11][10] 4. Spot Market Tracking Charts - Table 1 shows the daily performance of major domestic stock indices on May 21, 2025. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all increased, with daily increases of 0.21%, 0.44%, and 0.83% respectively [13] 5. Futures Market Tracking Charts - Table 2 shows the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures. The trading volume of IF increased, and the open interest of IC rose [15] - Table 3 shows the basis of stock index futures. Only the basis of IH recovered on the day [35] - Table 4 shows the inter - delivery spread of stock index futures [40]