智通财经APP获悉，中泰证券发布研报称，近期债市修复的主线第一性为筹码交易。随着时间的推移， 货币宽松事件交易和TACO交易越来越临近"末日期权"行权点，再交易的性价比偏低。在未来赎回费率 调整的可能性、以及债券赚钱效应下降的过程中，各类机构在四季度配债都不可避免要对第二年进行展 望，但今年可能是过去几年最为谨慎的平均市场预期，也影响四季度配债力度。债市供需层面可能迎来 弱供给和弱需求。目前来看该行认为各类机构都面临，居民风险偏好提高下，对低风险、长久期品种 的"再配置"。另外，从今年下半年来看，科技牛和债牛的相关性越来越清晰。 债市机构定价权如何移动？节后的结构性行情，尤其是TACO交易下，公募参与量相比于今年4月份大 幅度降低，更多的是券商再次参与，该行推测可能还是中性策略为主，单边、重注交易不多。 总的来说，虽然短期内利差走的比较快比较急，给予了做窄利差交易机会，但中期趋势仍未转向。在未 来赎回费率调整的可能性、以及债券赚钱效应下降的过程中，各类机构在四季度配债都不可避免要对第 二年进行展望，但今年可能是过去几年最为谨慎的平均市场预期，也影响四季度配债力度。 债市供需层面：可能迎来弱供给和弱需求。目前来 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating information [23] Core Views - The bond market has experienced a structural market recently, but the structural repair market has become uncertain in the latter part of this week. It is necessary to discuss several main market concerns and issues [2][5] - The primary factor in the recent bond market repair is "chip trading." As time passes, the cost - effectiveness of re - trading for currency easing event trading and TACO trading is relatively low [2][6][8] - In the medium - term, the bond market trend has not changed. In the fourth quarter, various institutions' bond allocation will be affected by the outlook for the next year, and this year's market expectations are the most cautious in the past few years, which also impacts the bond allocation strength in the fourth quarter [2][17] - The bond market may face weak supply and weak demand. There is a "re - allocation" of low - risk and long - duration varieties due to the increase in residents' risk appetite. The supply of interest - rate bonds is less in the fourth quarter, and the strength of the "good start" is uncertain and may be relatively small [2][20] - The relationship between the technology sector and the bond market has changed this year. The marginal power of liquidity easing has weakened, and the re - balance of institutional behavior dominates the bond market. The correlation between the technology bull market and the bond bull market has become clearer [2][21][22] Summary by Directory 1. What is the primary factor in the recent bond market repair? - The reasons for the bond market repair include weakening high - frequency monthly growth indicators, the need for a "good start" in the fourth quarter, the "TACO" trading, the decline in the duration of public bond funds, and the high spread of some bonds [6] - It is essentially a "chip trading" at the weekly level after the rapid widening of various bond spreads. The overall profit - making effect in the market is not strong, and the certainty of time is greater than that of space. The cost - effectiveness of re - trading is low, and the bond fund chips are not yet in a tradable stage after clearing [6][8] 2. How to understand the current economic growth rate and economic structure? - In June this year, the two main logics for going long in the bond market were the weakening growth momentum and limited traditional incremental policies. A possible economic growth structure three years ago may represent a certain degree of "high - quality development" [11] - Traditional bond market research methods may not be applicable when the main source of risk - asset fluctuations shifts from the real - estate chain to the technology sector [11] 3. How does the pricing power of bond market institutions shift? - The bond market has experienced a structural decline in September and a structural repair after the holiday. The participation of public funds in the TACO trading has decreased significantly compared to April this year, and securities firms are more involved, mainly with neutral strategies [12][14] - In the short term, there are opportunities to narrow the spread, but the medium - term trend has not changed. The adjustment of redemption fees and the decline in the bond market's profit - making effect will affect the bond allocation of various institutions in the fourth quarter [17] 4. Bond market supply and demand - The bond market may face weak supply and weak demand. There is a "re - allocation" of low - risk and long - duration varieties due to the increase in residents' risk appetite [20] - The supply of interest - rate bonds is less in the fourth quarter, and the strength of the "good start" is uncertain and may be relatively small [20] 5. How to view the relationship between technology and bonds? - Historically, the correlation between the technology sector and the bond market was weak. But this year, the marginal power of liquidity easing has weakened, and the re - balance of institutional behavior has led to a "bear steep" situation in the bond market [21] - The technology sector's market value has exceeded that of the financial sector, and it has become a performance - driven sector. The impact of the real - estate chain on the A - share market has weakened significantly, and the correlation between the technology bull market and the bond bull market has become clearer [21][22]

Group 1 - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's resignation is expected to increase volatility in the Japanese bond market and stock market, with a focus on potential successors and the possibility of reviving "Abenomics" policies [1][2] - Japan's outstanding debt is nearing 250% of GDP, the highest among developed countries, with the next fiscal year's budget request hitting a record high for the third consecutive year [2][5] - The resignation of Ishiba may lead to further increases in long-term bond yields, which have already faced upward pressure due to fiscal uncertainty [2][5] Group 2 - The 30-year Japanese government bond yield recently surged to an unprecedented 3.285%, while the 20-year yield reached 2.69%, the highest since 1999, indicating a significant rise in borrowing costs for the government, businesses, and citizens [2][5] - The recent political landscape has shifted, with non-mainstream parties advocating for tax cuts and increased spending gaining more seats, leading to speculation about Ishiba's resignation [5][6] - Among the potential successors, Sanae Takaichi advocates for maintaining ultra-low interest rates to support economic recovery, which could be favorable for the stock market [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the bond futures market is experiencing a significant decline, influenced by a shift of funds from the bond market to the stock market due to a V-shaped rebound in A-shares and rising inflation expectations driven by domestic policies [1][2][3] - As of August 28, the 30-year main contract fell by 0.72%, the 10-year main contract fell by 0.19%, and the yields on major government bonds increased, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 2.15 basis points to 1.7865% [1][2] - The bond market adjustment shows that short-term bonds have smaller declines while long-term and ultra-long-term bonds experience larger drops, indicating a close correlation between long bonds and the stock market [3] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the current bond market adjustment is primarily driven by sentiment and changes in fund flows rather than a deterioration in the fundamentals, with a steepening yield curve indicating concerns over long-term inflation and fiscal pressures [3] - In the context of a strong stock market, the bond market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with potential for repeated bottom testing [3] - Investment strategies recommended include cautious observation for conservative investors, while aggressive investors may consider small positions for bottom-fishing, and combining bond investments with stock market strategies to hedge against potential downturns [4]

Group 1 - In July, the bond market experienced adjustments due to strong performance in other asset classes, leading to relative pressure on bonds [1] - The surge in prices of cyclical stocks and commodities like polysilicon and coking coal contributed to rising inflation expectations, causing bond yields to increase by approximately 10 basis points in July [1] - The current yield on the ten-year government bond has retreated to around 1.7% after commodity prices fell, still below the year's peak yield of 1.89% [1] Group 2 - Following interest rate adjustments, the overall yield on credit bonds showed a fluctuating upward trend in July, while credit spreads remained at low levels [2] - The current bond market is characterized by a stable funding rate, with R007 maintaining a consistent level aligned with policy rates [2] - The bond market is in a range-bound state, with strategies suggested to gradually increase holdings in long-term bonds at yield peaks and reduce holdings near 1.6% [2]