Group 1 - The company bond ETF (511030) has seen a 0.03% increase, marking three consecutive days of gains, with the latest price at 106.19 yuan. Over the past year, the ETF has accumulated a rise of 2.18% [1] - The trading volume for the company bond ETF was 0.48% with a transaction value of 1.05 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume over the past month was 22.76 billion yuan [1] - The latest scale of the company bond ETF reached 21.876 billion yuan, setting a new record since its inception [1] Group 2 - Institutions indicate that social financing (社融) may see a year-on-year increase in June, with expected new loans around 2 trillion yuan and a social financing increment of 3.8 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 8.8% [4] - The secondary market for government bonds showed varied trading activities, with large banks buying 10.1 billion yuan, while city commercial banks sold 33.1 billion yuan. Overall, bond funds have accumulated a net purchase of approximately 170 billion yuan in bonds with a maturity of 20 years or more since the beginning of the year [4] - The company bond ETF (511030) is the only credit bond ETF in the market with a scale exceeding 20 billion yuan, qualifying for both the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation's pledge library and the Shanghai Stock Exchange's margin trading [4][7]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report on the industry investment rating is provided in the content Group 2: Core Views - Forecasts for June 2025 include 2.1 trillion yuan in new loans, 3.8 trillion yuan in social financing, M2 reaching 329.2 trillion yuan with a YoY growth of 7.9%, M1 (new caliber) YoY growth of 2.5%, and a social financing growth rate of 8.8% [2] - New loans in June may be close to the same period last year. The growth of individual loans is expected to be 500 billion yuan, corporate credit 1.55 trillion yuan, and non - bank inter - bank loans 50 billion yuan. The growth of individual short - term loans is expected to be 150 billion yuan, and individual medium - and long - term loans 350 billion yuan. Corporate short - term loans are expected to increase by 500 billion yuan, corporate medium - and long - term loans by 950 billion yuan, and bill financing by 100 billion yuan [3] - The growth rate of the new - caliber M1 is expected to rebound in June, while the M2 growth rate remains stable. The new - caliber M1 growth rate at the end of June is expected to be 2.5%, and the old - caliber M1 growth rate +0.4%, both rebounding month - on - month. The M2 growth rate at the end of June is expected to be 7.9%, basically unchanged from the end of last month [3] - Social financing in June may increase year - on - year. The social financing increment in June is predicted to be 3.8 trillion yuan, with the increase mainly from government bonds and net corporate bond financing. The social financing growth rate at the end of June is expected to be 8.8%, up 0.1 percentage point month - on - month. For the whole year, new loans (social financing caliber) are expected to increase slightly year - on - year, government bond net financing to expand significantly year - on - year, and the social financing growth rate may rise first and then fall, with an end - of - year rate of about 8.3% [3] - Interest rate bonds are expected to fluctuate narrowly in the third quarter. There is a continued bullish view on long - duration urban investment bonds and capital bonds with a yield of over 2%. In 2026, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates significantly, presenting prominent opportunities for short - and medium - term US bonds [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Forecast of New Loans - Based on past credit release rules and industry observations, it is predicted that new loans in June 2025 will be 2.1 trillion yuan. The growth of individual loans is expected to be 500 billion yuan, corporate credit 1.55 trillion yuan, and non - bank inter - bank loans 50 billion yuan. Due to weak credit demand, new loans in July may be low [2][3] Forecast of M1 and M2 Growth Rates - Since January 2025, the central bank has adopted a new M1 caliber. It is expected that the new - caliber M1 growth rate at the end of June will be 2.5% and the old - caliber M1 growth rate +0.4%, both rebounding month - on - month. The M2 growth rate at the end of June is expected to be 7.9%, basically unchanged from the end of last month, indicating a slow improvement in economic activity [3] Forecast of Social Financing - The social financing increment in June 2025 is predicted to be 3.8 trillion yuan, an increase from 3.3 trillion yuan in June 2024. The increase mainly comes from government bonds and corporate bond net financing. The social financing growth rate at the end of June is expected to be 8.8%, up 0.1 percentage point month - on - month. For the whole year, social financing is expected to increase year - on - year, and the growth rate may rise first and then fall [3] Bond Market Outlook - In the third quarter, interest rate bonds are expected to fluctuate narrowly. There is a continued bullish view on long - duration urban investment bonds and capital bonds with a yield of over 2%, as well as urban investment dim - sum bonds and US dollar bonds. The perpetual bonds of Minsheng, Bohai, and Hengfeng Banks are strongly recommended, and opportunities in insurance sub - debt are worth attention. In 2026, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates significantly, presenting prominent opportunities for short - and medium - term US bonds [3]

Group 1: Company Bond ETF (511030) - As of July 1, 2025, the Company Bond ETF is priced at 106.11 yuan, with a cumulative increase of 2.17% over the past year as of June 30, 2025 [1] - The latest scale of the Company Bond ETF reached 21.821 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception [1] - The ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past 17 days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 1.538 billion yuan, totaling 6.249 billion yuan, averaging 368 million yuan per day [1] - Over the past five years, the net value of the Company Bond ETF has increased by 13.29% [1] Group 2: National Bond ETF (511020) - As of July 1, 2025, the National Bond ETF (5-10 years) is priced at 117.53 yuan, with a cumulative increase of 1.14% over the past three months as of June 30, 2025 [3] - The latest scale of the National Bond ETF (5-10 years) reached 1.496 billion yuan, a new high in the past three months [3] - The ETF has recorded a net inflow of 31.7321 million yuan recently, with a total of 63.4714 million yuan over the past five trading days [3] Group 3: National Development Bond ETF (159651) - As of July 1, 2025, the National Development Bond ETF is priced at 106.23 yuan, with a cumulative increase of 1.84% over the past year as of June 30, 2025 [4] - The manufacturing PMI for June was reported at 49.7%, indicating a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points, continuing the improvement trend [4] - The economic growth for Q2 is expected to remain stable, with GDP growth projected to be no less than 5% [4] Group 4: Market Overview and Trends - In June, the net buying of interest rate bonds by bond funds reached 486.2 billion yuan, with 113 billion yuan in bonds with a maturity of 20 years or more [5] - The market is expected to see narrow fluctuations in interest rate bonds in the short term, with a focus on long-term city investment bonds and capital bonds [5] - Recent adjustments in the Hong Kong stock market are related to profit-taking and the requirement for state-owned insurance companies to invest 30% of new premiums in A-shares, presenting an opportunity [5]