Group 1 - The company bond ETF (511030) has seen a 0.03% increase, marking three consecutive days of gains, with the latest price at 106.19 yuan. Over the past year, the ETF has accumulated a rise of 2.18% [1] - The trading volume for the company bond ETF was 0.48% with a transaction value of 1.05 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume over the past month was 22.76 billion yuan [1] - The latest scale of the company bond ETF reached 21.876 billion yuan, setting a new record since its inception [1] Group 2 - Institutions indicate that social financing (社融) may see a year-on-year increase in June, with expected new loans around 2 trillion yuan and a social financing increment of 3.8 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 8.8% [4] - The secondary market for government bonds showed varied trading activities, with large banks buying 10.1 billion yuan, while city commercial banks sold 33.1 billion yuan. Overall, bond funds have accumulated a net purchase of approximately 170 billion yuan in bonds with a maturity of 20 years or more since the beginning of the year [4] - The company bond ETF (511030) is the only credit bond ETF in the market with a scale exceeding 20 billion yuan, qualifying for both the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation's pledge library and the Shanghai Stock Exchange's margin trading [4][7]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report on the industry investment rating is provided in the content Group 2: Core Views - Forecasts for June 2025 include 2.1 trillion yuan in new loans, 3.8 trillion yuan in social financing, M2 reaching 329.2 trillion yuan with a YoY growth of 7.9%, M1 (new caliber) YoY growth of 2.5%, and a social financing growth rate of 8.8% [2] - New loans in June may be close to the same period last year. The growth of individual loans is expected to be 500 billion yuan, corporate credit 1.55 trillion yuan, and non - bank inter - bank loans 50 billion yuan. The growth of individual short - term loans is expected to be 150 billion yuan, and individual medium - and long - term loans 350 billion yuan. Corporate short - term loans are expected to increase by 500 billion yuan, corporate medium - and long - term loans by 950 billion yuan, and bill financing by 100 billion yuan [3] - The growth rate of the new - caliber M1 is expected to rebound in June, while the M2 growth rate remains stable. The new - caliber M1 growth rate at the end of June is expected to be 2.5%, and the old - caliber M1 growth rate +0.4%, both rebounding month - on - month. The M2 growth rate at the end of June is expected to be 7.9%, basically unchanged from the end of last month [3] - Social financing in June may increase year - on - year. The social financing increment in June is predicted to be 3.8 trillion yuan, with the increase mainly from government bonds and net corporate bond financing. The social financing growth rate at the end of June is expected to be 8.8%, up 0.1 percentage point month - on - month. For the whole year, new loans (social financing caliber) are expected to increase slightly year - on - year, government bond net financing to expand significantly year - on - year, and the social financing growth rate may rise first and then fall, with an end - of - year rate of about 8.3% [3] - Interest rate bonds are expected to fluctuate narrowly in the third quarter. There is a continued bullish view on long - duration urban investment bonds and capital bonds with a yield of over 2%. In 2026, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates significantly, presenting prominent opportunities for short - and medium - term US bonds [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Forecast of New Loans - Based on past credit release rules and industry observations, it is predicted that new loans in June 2025 will be 2.1 trillion yuan. The growth of individual loans is expected to be 500 billion yuan, corporate credit 1.55 trillion yuan, and non - bank inter - bank loans 50 billion yuan. Due to weak credit demand, new loans in July may be low [2][3] Forecast of M1 and M2 Growth Rates - Since January 2025, the central bank has adopted a new M1 caliber. It is expected that the new - caliber M1 growth rate at the end of June will be 2.5% and the old - caliber M1 growth rate +0.4%, both rebounding month - on - month. The M2 growth rate at the end of June is expected to be 7.9%, basically unchanged from the end of last month, indicating a slow improvement in economic activity [3] Forecast of Social Financing - The social financing increment in June 2025 is predicted to be 3.8 trillion yuan, an increase from 3.3 trillion yuan in June 2024. The increase mainly comes from government bonds and corporate bond net financing. The social financing growth rate at the end of June is expected to be 8.8%, up 0.1 percentage point month - on - month. For the whole year, social financing is expected to increase year - on - year, and the growth rate may rise first and then fall [3] Bond Market Outlook - In the third quarter, interest rate bonds are expected to fluctuate narrowly. There is a continued bullish view on long - duration urban investment bonds and capital bonds with a yield of over 2%, as well as urban investment dim - sum bonds and US dollar bonds. The perpetual bonds of Minsheng, Bohai, and Hengfeng Banks are strongly recommended, and opportunities in insurance sub - debt are worth attention. In 2026, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates significantly, presenting prominent opportunities for short - and medium - term US bonds [3]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - In June 2025, the manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, supported by tariff delays and the implementation of existing policies [2][5] - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.5%, indicating a slight improvement in the service sector [2][7] - The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.7%, reflecting an overall acceleration in business activities [5][7] Group 2: Company Overview - Guangzhou Development (600098.SH) - Guangzhou Development is a comprehensive energy platform controlled by the Guangzhou Municipal Government, with a diversified energy industry system including power, energy logistics, gas, new energy, and energy finance [2][9] - As of the end of 2024, the total installed power capacity of the company was 10.26 GW, with significant contributions from coal, gas, wind, and solar power [2][9] - The company has maintained stable performance with continuous dividends for 26 years, achieving a net profit of 1.732 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.73% [2][9] Group 3: Business Segments - The company focuses on thermal power in the Greater Bay Area, benefiting from a decline in coal prices, which enhances the performance elasticity of thermal power [2][10] - The new energy business is rapidly developing, with plans to reach an installed capacity of 8 GW by the end of 2025 [2][10] - The gas segment, primarily in Guangzhou, has shown steady growth, with gas sales volume reaching 2.166 billion cubic meters in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 26.18% [2][11] Group 4: Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.849 billion, 2.120 billion, and 2.373 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.74%, 14.70%, and 11.91% respectively [2][11] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 12, 10, and 9 for the years 2025 to 2027 [2][11]

Group 1: Company Bond ETF (511030) - As of July 1, 2025, the Company Bond ETF is priced at 106.11 yuan, with a cumulative increase of 2.17% over the past year as of June 30, 2025 [1] - The latest scale of the Company Bond ETF reached 21.821 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception [1] - The ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past 17 days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 1.538 billion yuan, totaling 6.249 billion yuan, averaging 368 million yuan per day [1] - Over the past five years, the net value of the Company Bond ETF has increased by 13.29% [1] Group 2: National Bond ETF (511020) - As of July 1, 2025, the National Bond ETF (5-10 years) is priced at 117.53 yuan, with a cumulative increase of 1.14% over the past three months as of June 30, 2025 [3] - The latest scale of the National Bond ETF (5-10 years) reached 1.496 billion yuan, a new high in the past three months [3] - The ETF has recorded a net inflow of 31.7321 million yuan recently, with a total of 63.4714 million yuan over the past five trading days [3] Group 3: National Development Bond ETF (159651) - As of July 1, 2025, the National Development Bond ETF is priced at 106.23 yuan, with a cumulative increase of 1.84% over the past year as of June 30, 2025 [4] - The manufacturing PMI for June was reported at 49.7%, indicating a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points, continuing the improvement trend [4] - The economic growth for Q2 is expected to remain stable, with GDP growth projected to be no less than 5% [4] Group 4: Market Overview and Trends - In June, the net buying of interest rate bonds by bond funds reached 486.2 billion yuan, with 113 billion yuan in bonds with a maturity of 20 years or more [5] - The market is expected to see narrow fluctuations in interest rate bonds in the short term, with a focus on long-term city investment bonds and capital bonds [5] - Recent adjustments in the Hong Kong stock market are related to profit-taking and the requirement for state-owned insurance companies to invest 30% of new premiums in A-shares, presenting an opportunity [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - The report presents basic data including the ChinaBond Composite Index at 254.4, the ChinaBond Long/Medium and Short - term Index at 245.4/209.1, the 10 - year inter - bank treasury bond yield at 1.65, and the enterprise/company/convertible bond scales at 70.2/23.7/6.9 trillion respectively [4] Summary by Related Catalog Government Debt Issuance - **Total Net Financing of Treasury Bonds and New Local Bonds**: In the 24th week (6/9 - 6/15), it was 2704 billion yuan, and in the 25th week (6/16 - 6/22), it was 2048 billion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative general deficit was 5.1 trillion yuan, with a progress of 43.4%, exceeding the same period last year [1][7] - **Net Financing of Government Bonds**: In the 24th week, it was 2190 billion yuan, and in the 25th week, it was 2594 billion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative amount was 6.8 trillion yuan, 3.6 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, mainly due to the rapid issuance of special bonds for replacing implicit debts and treasury bonds [1][7] - **Net Financing of Treasury Bonds**: In the 24th week, it was 2621 billion yuan, and in the 25th week, it was 1351 billion yuan. The total annual net financing of treasury bonds is 6.66 trillion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative amount was 3.1 trillion yuan, with a progress of 47.1%, exceeding the same period in the past five years [1][8] - **Net Financing of Local Bonds**: In the 24th week, it was - 430 billion yuan, and in the 25th week, it was 1243 billion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative amount was 3.7 trillion yuan, 2.1 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1][10] - **New General Bonds**: In the 24th week, 13 billion yuan was issued, and in the 25th week, 272 billion yuan was issued. The local deficit in 2025 is 8000 billion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative issuance was 3610 billion yuan, with a progress of 45.1%, exceeding the same period last year [1][10] - **New Special Bonds**: In the 24th week, 71 billion yuan was issued, and in the 25th week, 425 billion yuan was issued. The planned issuance of new special bonds in 2025 is 4.4 trillion yuan. As of the 24th week, the cumulative issuance was 1.6 trillion yuan, with a progress of 37.5%, exceeding the same period last year. Special new special bonds of 3196 billion yuan and land reserve special bonds of 1699 billion yuan have been issued. The cumulative disclosed acquisition of idle land projects covers 4176 parcels, with a capital scale (including proposed) of about 4564 billion yuan [2][14] - **Special Refinancing Bonds**: In the 24th week, 267 billion yuan was issued, and in the 25th week, 527 billion yuan was issued. As of the 24th week, the cumulative issuance was 1.7 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 84% [2][28] - **Urban Investment Bonds**: In the 24th week, the net financing was - 6 billion yuan, and in the 25th week, it is expected to be - 383 billion yuan. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is about 10.4 trillion yuan [2][30]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since April 29, the interest rates of credit bonds have been oscillating downward. The 5-year, 6-year, and 7-year medium-term notes have performed well. The historical percentile of the valuation of industrial bonds with a maturity of over 5 years is generally between 3% and 7% [15]. - Local governments are implementing various measures to boost economic development, aiming to transform into "service-oriented governments" and enhance the competitiveness of local enterprises and cities [5][67]. - In the financial bond market, the yields of various financial bond varieties have declined, and the credit spreads have actively narrowed. The current preferred strategy is the coupon strategy. For Tier 2 perpetual bonds, institutions with stable liability ends can consider extending the duration in advance [5][6][87]. Summary by Related Catalogs 5y+ Industrial Bonds Selection - Consider central state-owned enterprises with significant social responsibilities and influence, such as China Chengtong and China Guoxin. For example, 25 Chengtong Holdings MTN001 has a remaining term of 9.9836 years and a ChinaBond exercise valuation of around 2.17% [15]. - Focus on provincial state-owned enterprises with investment or both urban investment and industrial attributes, like Nantong Metro, Shandong Hi-Speed, and Yuexiu Group. Institutions with high return requirements can consider Shuidi Group and Shaanxi Tourism Group. For instance, 25 Shuidi Group MTN007 has a remaining term of 2.9479 + 2 years and a ChinaBond exercise valuation of around 2.56%, and 25 Shaanxi Tourism V1 has a remaining term of 9.8603 years and a ChinaBond exercise valuation of around 3.27% [16]. - Pay attention to large provincial comprehensive investment entities, such as Fujian Investment & Development Group, which is involved in industries like electricity, gas, financial services, and railways [16]. - Focus on high-grade long-term credit bonds with good liquidity, such as Kunpeng Capital, Hengjian Holdings, and China Everbright Group. China Everbright Group has over 10-year outstanding bonds worth 3 billion yuan and a valuation of about 2.2% [17]. Urban Investment Bonds and Regional Macroeconomics Local Governments Stimulate the Economy with Various Measures - Local governments are implementing measures in various aspects, including boosting consumption, talent cultivation, salary mechanisms, institutional opening, attracting foreign investment, urban renewal, debt resolution, platform transformation, and supporting private enterprises, to enhance local market cultivation, guide enterprise transformation, and encourage scientific research innovation [5][67]. - Examples include Guangzhou's plan to boost consumption, Shenzhen's deepening of reform and opening up, Shanghai's promotion of the replication and implementation of pilot measures in the free trade zone, Shandong's support for the high-quality development of the private economy, and the improvement of the development index of small and medium-sized enterprises [46][51][56][60][66]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on "major economic provinces" with good development momentum and debt management, such as Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Anhui, Shanghai, and Beijing. Consider extending the duration to 5 years [71]. - Pay attention to regions where significant policies or substantial funds for debt resolution have been implemented, such as Chongqing, Tianjin, Guangxi, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Gansu, Guizhou, and Yunnan. Consider a duration of 3 - 5 years [72]. - Focus on prefecture-level cities with strong industrial bases and financial support, such as cities in Hunan, Hubei, Henan, Sichuan, Chongqing, Shaanxi, Guangxi, Shanxi, and Jiangxi. Consider a duration of 2 - 3 years [73][76][78]. Financial Bond Weekly Views - The yields of various financial bond varieties have declined, and the credit spreads have actively narrowed. The current preferred strategy is the coupon strategy. For Tier 2 perpetual bonds, institutions with stable liability ends can consider extending the duration in advance. There is still a certain positive carry in short- and medium-term Tier 2 perpetual bonds, and opportunities for spread compression can be explored [6][87]. - The credit spreads of commercial bank bonds with a maturity of over 4 years are at a historical percentile of over 20% since 2022, with greater room for compression. The credit spreads of Tier 2 perpetual bonds with a maturity of over 5 years are also at a historical percentile of over 20%, with potential for spread compression and the possibility of obtaining excess returns in a downward interest rate cycle [6]. - The yield curves of 4-year and 6-year bonds have convex points, providing good riding effects [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The report presents the weekly observation data of government debt, including the net financing and issuance progress of various types of government bonds, as well as the net financing and balance of urban investment bonds [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalog Government Debt Overall Situation - The net financing of national debt plus the issuance of new local bonds were 214 billion yuan in the 23rd week (6/2 - 6/8) and 268.9 billion yuan in the 24th week (6/9 - 6/15). As of the 23rd week, the cumulative general deficit was 4.7 trillion yuan, with a progress of 41.1%, exceeding the same period last year [1][6] - The net financing of government bonds was 248.5 billion yuan in the 23rd week and 217.5 billion yuan in the 24th week. As of the 23rd week, the cumulative amount was 6.6 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 3.7 trillion yuan, mainly due to the rapid issuance of special bonds for replacing hidden debts and national debt [6] National Debt - The net financing of national debt was 19.8 billion yuan in the 23rd week and 26.05 billion yuan in the 24th week. The total net financing of national debt for the whole year is 6.66 trillion yuan. As of the 23rd week, the cumulative amount was 2.9 trillion yuan, with a progress of 43.1%, exceeding the same period in the past five years [1][7] Local Debt - The net financing of local debt was 5.05 billion yuan in the 23rd week and -4.3 billion yuan in the 24th week. As of the 23rd week, the cumulative amount was 3.7 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 2.1 trillion yuan [1][10] New General Debt - The issuance of new general debt was 0.87 billion yuan in the 23rd week and 0.13 billion yuan in the 24th week. In 2025, the local deficit is 80 billion yuan. As of the 23rd week, the cumulative amount was 35.97 billion yuan, with a progress of 45%, exceeding the same period last year [1][10] New Special Debt - The issuance of new special debt was 0.73 billion yuan in the 23rd week and 0.71 billion yuan in the 24th week. In 2025, the arrangement for new special debt is 4.4 trillion yuan. As of the 23rd week, the cumulative amount was 1.6 trillion yuan, with a progress of 37.3%, exceeding the same period last year [2][13] - Special new special bonds worth 26.04 billion yuan have been issued, and land reserve special bonds worth 10.83 billion yuan have been issued. The disclosed projects for acquiring idle land have covered 4,176 parcels of land, with a capital scale of about 45.64 billion yuan [2][13] Special Refinancing Bonds - The issuance of special refinancing bonds was 2.77 billion yuan in the 23rd week and 2.67 billion yuan in the 24th week. As of the 23rd week, the cumulative amount was 1.7 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 84% [2][27] Urban Investment Bonds - The net financing of urban investment bonds was -0.97 billion yuan in the 23rd week and is expected to be -2.91 billion yuan in the 24th week. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is about 10.5 trillion yuan [2][28][31]

Core Insights - The report focuses on the performance of three categories of wealth management products: cash management products, pure fixed income products, and "fixed income + options" products [1] Cash Management Products - The average annualized yield for public cash management products over the past six months is 1.62% as of May 8 [9] - The highest yield in this category is from "Suyin Wealth Management Qiyuan Currency No. 2 (ESG Theme) G," with an average annualized yield of 2.635% [9] - Other notable products include "Jiaoyin Wealth Management Stable Enjoy Cash Add Benefit (Enjoy Version) No. 52 C" with a yield of 2.558% and "Suyin Wealth Management Qiyuan Cash No. 6 JS" with a yield of 2.393% [9] Pure Fixed Income Products - The average yield for public pure fixed income products with an investment period of 2-3 years is 3.52% over the past year [4] - A significant 98.16% of these products achieved positive quarterly returns over the past year [4] - The top-performing product is "Hangyin Wealth Management Happiness 99 Abundant Fixed Income 23003 (Stable Low Volatility)," with a net value growth rate of 5% [4] - The second-best is "Hangyin Wealth Management Happiness 99 Longevity 23002 (Stable Low Volatility)," with a growth rate of 4.86% [4] - Both top products heavily invest in urban investment bonds, with the first product having 89.19% of its net asset value in such bonds [4][5] "Fixed Income + Options" Products - The average net value growth rate for public "fixed income + options" products over the past six months is 0.68% [12] - The highest growth rate in this category is from "Zhaoyin Wealth Management Zhaorui Global Asset Momentum Two-Year Open 10 Fixed Income Class A," with a growth rate of 2.64% [12] - The second highest is "Zhaoyin Wealth Management Zhaorui Global Asset Momentum Fourteen-Month Open 8 Fixed Income Class A," with a growth rate of 2.11% [12]