后面几年，管浩阳从钢铁出发，把能力圈逐步拓展到建筑、建材、有色、化工、煤炭等多个行业，用九 年的深耕形成了全周期品的研究图谱，也担当起西部利得基金研究部周期组组长。 他坦言，尽管周期行业同属大类资产，但不同子行业间的壁垒极高。比如钢铁是典型的国内周期，关注 点集中在政策与需求，而有色则是海外周期主导，比如铜、铝的价格更多受全球供需影响。此外，有色 行业细分品类众多，贵金属、工业金属、能源金属的逻辑差异巨大，这种跨领域的研究，既是对能力的 考验，也是对耐心的磨练。 而此次他拟管的西部利得资源鑫选混合，是他在深耕了九年周期股研究后，担任基金经理的第一只产 品。 西部利得基金/供图 当逆全球化风潮愈演愈烈，资源品的战略重要性正在得到市场共识。 2020年以来，一场从煤炭到黄金，再到铜、银、稀土等资源品的大宗商品行情迅速扩散，资源股投资重 回投资者视野。近日，证券时报记者专访了西部利得基金新任基金经理管浩阳，从研究员到即将掌舵新 基金西部利得资源鑫选混合，他正将历经九年打磨的周期股研究框架投入实战。 在管浩阳看来，当前时点投资资源股，供给比需求重要，贝塔比个股重要。这场已经启动五年的大宗商 品行情可能仍有机会，资源品 ...

Market Performance - The A-share market showed strong performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.46% to 3875.53 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.05%, and the ChiNext Index up by 2.29% [1] - The total trading volume for A-shares was 2.78 trillion yuan, slightly down from the previous day's 2.83 trillion yuan [1] Macro Factors - The market's upward movement is driven by dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials, leading to heightened expectations for interest rate cuts in September [3] - The probability of the Fed maintaining rates in September is at 12.6%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut is at 87.4% [3] Pharmaceutical Sector Insights - The overall pharmaceutical sector is experiencing marginal improvement in mid-year performance, aligning with market expectations [4] - Revenue and net profit growth rates for the first half of 2025 are projected at 6.9% and 56.1%, respectively, with gross margins expected to rise to 77.7% [4] Innovation Drug Sector - The innovation drug sector is identified as a high-growth area, benefiting from improved risk appetite among investors [3][4] - The sector is expected to see continued support from mid-year performance recovery, favorable policies, and industry logic [4] Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on biotech and biopharma breakthroughs, particularly those with international potential [7] - Traditional pharmaceutical companies are expected to see value reassessment, with strong growth and international expansion driving valuation recovery [9] Future Catalysts - Key catalysts for the innovation drug sector in the second half of the year include ongoing policy support, upcoming clinical data releases, and accelerated international collaborations [10] - The upcoming industry conferences and clinical data disclosures are anticipated to enhance market sentiment and fundamental support for the sector [10] ETF Performance - The Innovation Drug ETF (517110) and the Sci-Tech Innovation Drug ETF (589720) have shown significant single-day gains of 6.05% and 5.02%, respectively [1][11] - These ETFs cover a wide range of innovative drug companies, providing a diversified investment approach within the sector [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Warren Buffett's investment in ConocoPhillips, highlighting the lessons learned from the investment's poor performance during the 2008 financial crisis and the cyclical nature of resource stocks [2][5][9]. Investment History - Buffett first invested in ConocoPhillips in 2006, acquiring 17.94 million shares at a cost of $1.067 billion. He significantly increased his stake in 2008 when oil prices peaked, spending $7 billion to buy an additional 70 million shares [3]. - The price of oil surged from $30 per barrel in 2003 to a peak of $147 per barrel in 2008, leading to a belief that prices would continue to rise [2][3]. Financial Performance - Following the 2008 financial crisis, oil prices plummeted, causing ConocoPhillips' stock price to drop from over $90 to below $40. Buffett sold most of his shares in 2009, incurring a loss of $2.6 billion [3][4]. - The actual annualized return from investing in ConocoPhillips since 2006 is 5.34%, and since 2008, it is only 3.27%, both trailing behind the S&P 500 [4]. Lessons Learned - The investment in ConocoPhillips is viewed as a significant mistake by Buffett, who acknowledged that he failed to accurately assess oil price trends and industry cycles [6][7]. - The management of ConocoPhillips made poor decisions, such as overpaying for acquisitions at the peak of the market, which led to high leverage and reduced return on equity [8][9]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - Resource stocks exhibit strong cyclical characteristics, making it challenging to predict their cycles. It is advised that investors consider entering these stocks only during clear cyclical lows [9]. - Long-term returns in resource stocks depend not only on price cycles but also on the management's ability to allocate capital effectively. Companies that acquire quality assets at low prices during downturns tend to perform better [9][10].