Market Overview - The financial markets experienced significant volatility in the first half of the year due to rapidly changing trade dynamics under President Trump, concerns over a potential economic recession, and worries about the expanding deficit threatening the U.S. safe-haven status [1] Currency Market - The U.S. dollar recorded its longest monthly decline since 2017 in June, with a year-to-date drop of approximately 10.8%, marking the worst first half since 1973 [3] - The euro appreciated by about 3.8% in June, with a cumulative increase of 13.8% in the first half, driven by concerns over tariffs impacting the economy and a weaker dollar [6] - The British pound saw a nearly 10% increase against the dollar in the first half, supported by a pause in interest rate cuts by the Bank of England and improving economic outlook [6] Gold Market - Gold prices rose by 25.8% in the first half of the year, with gold ETFs increasing by 25.9%, driven by geopolitical tensions and trade disputes boosting safe-haven demand [7] - Silver prices also surged, with a 24.9% increase in the first half, supported by both safe-haven and industrial demand [7] Oil Market - Crude oil prices experienced significant fluctuations, with an overall decline of about 9.6% in the first half, impacted by trade tensions and oversupply concerns from OPEC+ [9] - In June, oil prices briefly spiked to $80 due to tensions in the Middle East but quickly retreated as the situation stabilized [9] Equity Market - By the end of June, U.S. stock markets reached historical highs, driven by expectations of a trade agreement and renewed interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [11] - The S&P 500 index surpassed the 6200-point mark, reflecting a 25% increase from its April low, primarily fueled by strong performance in technology stocks [11] Market Resilience - Despite geopolitical shocks and trade uncertainties, the market demonstrated remarkable adaptability and resilience, attributed to stable economic and profit conditions [13] - Investors are advised to maintain diversified portfolios to navigate the high uncertainty period ahead of the upcoming earnings season [13]

Group 1 - The U.S. is expected to finalize a trade agreement before the July 9 deadline, which is positively impacting non-U.S. currencies [1] - Strong buying signals for the Euro are noted, while concerns over Federal Reserve rate cuts and budget deficits are weighing on the U.S. dollar [1] - The overall sentiment in the market is shifting towards a weaker dollar as these factors unfold [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment with 31% long positions and 69% short positions [3] - The S&P 500 Index has 74% long positions and 26% short positions, indicating a predominantly bullish outlook [3] - The Nasdaq Index reflects a strong bullish sentiment with 77% long positions [3] - The Dow Jones Index has 70% long positions, suggesting a positive market sentiment [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index shows a more balanced sentiment with 54% long and 46% short positions [3] - The German DAX 40 Index has 45% long positions and 55% short positions, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [3] Group 3 - In the forex market, the Euro to U.S. dollar pair has a significant long position of 87% [3] - The Euro to British pound pair shows a bearish sentiment with 35% long and 65% short positions [3] - The Euro to Japanese yen pair has a strong bullish sentiment with 92% long positions [3] - The Euro to Australian dollar pair also reflects a bullish sentiment with 92% long positions [3] - The British pound to U.S. dollar pair shows a bearish sentiment with 15% long and 85% short positions [3] - The British pound to Japanese yen pair has 27% long and 73% short positions, indicating a bearish outlook [3] - The U.S. dollar to Japanese yen pair is nearly balanced with 51% long and 49% short positions [3] - The U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar pair shows a bearish sentiment with 28% long and 72% short positions [3] - The U.S. dollar to Swiss franc pair has a strong bearish sentiment with only 9% long positions [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields is driven by concerns over deficits linked to Trump's tax reform, leading to a narrative of "Bond Vigilantes" [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Demand for the 20-year U.S. Treasury auction was weak, but not the worst, with a bid-to-cover ratio exceeding 5%, attracting market attention [1] - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating has exacerbated market sentiment, but its practical significance is limited and not a core concern for the market [1] - The prevailing market sentiment is bearish on U.S. Treasuries, with long-term yields likely to rise in the short term, although this may change if negative factors are fully priced in [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The "Bond Vigilantes" narrative may provide an opportunity for Trump to argue that the "One Big Beautiful Bill" can stimulate economic growth and address debt issues [1] - If U.S. economic data weakens and fiscal trajectories do not improve, long-term Treasuries may face increased selling pressure [1] - Future attention should be given to potential inflation rebounds and the release of Treasury supply following the resolution of the debt ceiling, which could drive yields higher [1]