投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 7 月 31 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 区间震荡 | 政策预期兑现，焦煤宽幅震荡 | | | | | 偏强 | | | | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 区间震荡 | 多空交织，焦炭宽幅震荡 | | | | | 偏强 | 偏弱 | | | 备注： 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡偏强 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：本轮上涨主要逻辑在于"反内卷整治"以及后续国家能源局综合司 108 号文提出的 "超产整治 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Coke**: On July 30, the coke main contract closed at 1,676.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 4.00%. The current fundamental pressure on coke is not significant, and the expected improvement in the medium - to - long - term supply - demand pattern of coking coal provides cost - side support. After a short - term correction, coke futures strengthened again [3][31]. - **Coking Coal**: The main logic for the recent rise was "anti - involution rectification" and "over - production rectification". However, the actual impact of the industry policies remains to be verified. Since the night session last Friday, the coking coal main contract has corrected. After the policy expectations were fulfilled, coking coal futures continued to adjust widely. In the short term, the release of positive sentiment led to a phased price correction, but in the long term, the coal price center is expected to gradually rise [4][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In June 2025, the national issuance of new bonds was 62.81 billion yuan, including 10.1 billion yuan of general bonds and 52.71 billion yuan of special bonds [7]. - On July 30, Mongolia's ETT Company held an online auction for coking coal. The starting price of Meng 5 clean coal was 86.8 US dollars/ton, and all 12,800 tons were sold at 95.2 US dollars/ton [8]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1,420 yuan/ton | +7.58% | +16.39% | - 15.98% | - 28.64% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1,390 yuan/ton | +0.72% | +19.83% | - 14.20% | - 24.86% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 1,240 yuan/ton | +20.39% | +43.35% | +5.08% | - 22.50% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian coal) | 1,480 yuan/ton | +0.68% | +22.31% | - 0.67% | - 28.50% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi coal) | 1,650 yuan/ton | +10.00% | +32.00% | +7.84% | - 17.09% | [9] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,676.5 yuan/ton | +4.00% | 1,722.0 yuan/ton | 1,632.0 yuan/ton | 54,649 | 7,422 | 29,358 | - 1,823 | | Coking Coal | | 1,117.0 yuan/ton | +2.71% | 1,172.0 yuan/ton | 1,061.0 yuan/ton | 1,748,394 | 157,517 | 307,743 | - 29,947 | [13] 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts related to coke and coking coal inventories, including the inventories of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, ports, and others, as well as charts on domestic steel - mill production, Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement, coal - washing plant production, and coking - plant operation [14][15][17][20][23][26][27][28][29][30]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Coke**: The coke market has strong potential. With low fundamental pressure and cost - side support from coking coal, coke futures are expected to maintain strength after a short - term correction [3][31]. - **Coking Coal**: In the short term, the market will experience wide - range adjustments due to policy expectations and the release of positive sentiment. In the long term, the coal price center is expected to gradually rise as the industry undergoes capacity optimization and upgrading [4][32].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Both coking coal and coke are expected to operate strongly in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, with coking coal driven by improved fundamental expectations and coke supported by the fourth price increase and cost from coking coal [1][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - **Coking Coal (JM2509)**: Short - term: oscillating and strong; Medium - term: oscillating and strong; Intraday: rising; Overall view: strong operation. The core logic is the improved fundamental expectations [1] - **Coke (J2509)**: Short - term: oscillating and strong; Medium - term: oscillating and strong; Intraday: rising; Overall view: strong operation. The core logic is the fourth price increase [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Coking Coal (JM)**: - Spot price: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at Ganqimao Port is 1200.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16.50% [5] - Driving factors: "Anti - involution rectification" and "over - production rectification" policies, but the actual impact needs verification. After capacity optimization and upgrading, the long - term fundamentals are expected to improve, and the futures return to a strong trend after a short - term correction [5] - **Coke (J)**: - Futures performance: On the night session of July 29, after two days of correction, the market became optimistic again, and the main contract rose by more than 6% [6] - Spot price: The fourth price increase was implemented on July 29, and the FOB price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at the port rose to 1420 yuan/ton [6] - Supply: As of July 25, the combined daily average coke output of independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 111.76 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.46 tons [6] - Profit: The profit per ton of coke for 30 independent sample coking plants this week was - 54 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan/ton [6] - Demand: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 242.23 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.21 tons but 2.62 tons higher than the same period last year [6] - Overall situation: The fundamental pressure of coke is not large, and the medium - and long - term improvement expectation of coking coal provides cost support, so the futures strengthen again after a short - term correction [6]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Coke**: On July 29, the main coke contract closed at 1,633 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.62%. The trading volume was 47,227 lots, and the open interest was 31,181 lots, a decrease of 2,353 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quoted price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1,370 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.79%; the ex - warehouse price at Qingdao Port was 1,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.45%. Positive news supported the low - level rebound of coke futures, but after the short - term release of optimistic sentiment, coke futures entered a phased correction due to the unverified impact of coal mine over - production rectification on coking coal output [5][30]. - **Coking Coal**: On July 29, the main coking coal contract closed at 1,120.5 points, with an intraday decline of 6.63%. The trading volume was 1,590,877 lots, and the open interest was 337,690 lots, a decrease of 55,427 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quoted price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 1,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16.50%, and the cost of futures warehouse receipts was about 1,177 yuan/ton. The price increase was mainly due to "anti - involution rectification" and "over - production rectification", but the actual impact of these policies remains to be verified. In the short term, there is still a risk of correction, but in the long term, the coal price center is expected to gradually rise after the capacity optimization and upgrading of the coal industry [6][31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - **Real Estate**: From July 21 to July 27, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.4137 million square meters, a week - on - week increase of 34.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.6%. The total transaction area of second - hand housing was 2.1341 million square meters, a week - on - week increase of 5.8% and a year - on - year increase of 4% [8]. - **Coking Coal Auction**: On July 29, Mongolia's small TT company held an online auction for coking coal. The starting price of Meng 4 raw coal was 78 US dollars/ton, and all 1.0048 million tons were sold at a price of 78.5 US dollars/ton, excluding tax. The supply location is the supervision area of Ganqimaodu Port in China, and the supply time is within 360 days after payment, with the final supply date being July 29, 2026 [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Coke**: The quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port had a current price of 1,370 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.79%, a month - on - month increase of 12.30%, and a year - on - year decrease of 18.93%. At Qingdao Port, the price was 1,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.45%, a month - on - month increase of 20.69%, and a year - on - year decrease of 13.58% [10]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 1,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16.50%, a month - on - month increase of 38.73%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.69%. The Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,480 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.68%, a month - on - month increase of 22.31%, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.67%. The Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10.00%, a month - on - month increase of 32.00%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.84% [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Coke**: The closing price of the main contract was 1,633 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.62%. The highest price was 1,639 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1,573.5 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 47,227 lots, a decrease of 15,715 lots, and the open interest was 31,181 lots, a decrease of 2,353 lots [13]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the main contract was 1,120.5 points, with a decline of 6.63%. The highest price was 1,129.5 points, the lowest was 1,050 points, the trading volume was 1,590,877 lots, and the open interest was 337,690 lots, a decrease of 55,427 lots [13]. 3.4 Related Charts The report provides multiple charts showing the inventory of coke and coking coal (including independent coking plants, steel mills' coking plants, ports), domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and rod procurement, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [14][26][29]. 3.5 Future Outlook The views on coke and coking coal are consistent with the core views, emphasizing the short - term correction risk and long - term improvement in the fundamentals of the coal industry [30][31].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term view for both焦煤 and焦炭 is a decline, while the medium - term view is oscillating strongly. The reference view for both is oscillating adjustment. For焦煤, after the release of optimistic sentiment, it experiences a short - term high - level correction, but the long - term fundamentals are expected to improve. For焦炭, after a continuous rise, it has a phased correction [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1品种观点参考 - For焦煤 2509, the short - term is a decline, the medium - term is oscillating strongly, the intraday is a decline, and the reference view is oscillating adjustment due to the phased release of sentiment and subsequent callback [1]. - For焦炭 2509, the short - term is a decline, the medium - term is oscillating strongly, the intraday is a decline, and the reference view is oscillating adjustment because of the cooling of market sentiment and high - level decline [1]. 3.2主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 - **焦煤（JM）**: In July, with the release of positive news, the long - term supply - demand pattern of焦煤 has an expectation of improvement, driving the main contract up. But after the rapid price increase, the market fluctuates greatly, and the main contract has a significant callback on Friday night. The "anti - involution rectification" and "over - production rectification" are the main reasons for the rise, but the actual impact of policies needs verification. After the release of optimistic sentiment, the short - term high - level correction occurs. In the long - run, the coal price center is expected to gradually rise [5]. - **焦炭（J）**: On the night of July 28, the main contract of焦炭 continued to correct, with a 3.79% decline. After a continuous rise, it has a phased correction. As of July 25, the total daily output of independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants increased by 0.46 tons week - on - week. The profit per ton of 30 independent sample coking plants is - 54 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan/ton. The daily output of hot metal of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.21 tons week - on - week, but is 2.62 tons higher than the same period last year. After the strong - expectation - driven rise in July, the short - term correction occurs [6].