01 消费，需要继续加油加火！ 8月13日尾盘，央行公布7月金融数据。 新增社融11600亿元，同比增长3893亿元，低于市场一致预期的14100亿元；新增人民币贷款（金融机构口径）-500亿元，低于市场一致预期的-150亿元， 也是自2005年7月以来首次转负。 尤其是，7月新增居民贷款-4893亿元，同比少增2793亿元，新增居民短债、中长贷分别为-3827、-1100亿元，同比少增1671、1200亿元，继4月后再度呈 现"双负"状态。 居民短贷主要是个人经营性贷款、信用卡透支、消费贷款等。 所以这种低迷背后，折射出来的就是居民上杠杆消费的意愿偏弱，对当下和未来缺乏足够安全感。 高层当然早就有所准备。 7月31日，国常会部署实施个人消费贷款贴息政策与服务业经营主体贷款贴。 8月12日，三部门印发《个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施方案》—— 9月起，个人消费贷和消费领域服务业经营贷，均将享受1个百分点财政贴息，政策暂定持续一年。 精准支持 个人消费 、 刺激 消费！ 贴息的钱，中央财政 负担 90% 、 地方扛10%。覆盖 6家国有大型商业银行、12家全国性股份制商业银行、5家其他个人消费贷款发放机构，包括 ...

Core Viewpoints - The article emphasizes the importance of establishing a solid material foundation before pursuing spiritual satisfaction, highlighting the impulsive consumption habits of the younger generation and the long-term consequences of such behavior [1][2][4]. Group 1: Consumption Behavior - The article discusses the impulsive consumption behavior of the younger generation, exemplified by a case of a tenant who prioritizes car loans over paying rent and utilities [1]. - It contrasts this with the author's own experience of saving diligently to purchase property, which has proven to be a more valuable investment compared to the depreciating value of luxury goods [1][5]. - The concept of delayed gratification is introduced, illustrated by a candy experiment where only a small percentage of children could wait for a greater reward, suggesting that many struggle with long-term financial planning [2][4]. Group 2: Social Implications of Saving - The article raises concerns about the broader social implications of widespread saving behavior, questioning how a collective focus on frugality could lead to reduced consumption and increased unemployment [3][4]. - It argues that while individual saving is beneficial, if everyone adopts the same mindset, it could harm the economy and lead to job losses [3][4]. Group 3: Personal Reflections on Spending - The author reflects on personal experiences of saving money during college, expressing regret over not spending on experiences that could have created lasting memories [7][8]. - There is a discussion on the balance between saving and spending, emphasizing the need for young individuals to learn financial responsibility while also enjoying life [6][11]. Group 4: Generational Perspectives - The article highlights the differences in financial perspectives between generations, noting that older generations may not fully understand the spending habits of younger individuals [12][14]. - It suggests that societal diversity in consumption habits is essential, and that each generation has its own unique financial challenges and opportunities [12][14].

Core Insights - The proportion of families with over one million yuan in savings in China is significantly lower than commonly perceived, estimated at only 0.1% of the total population, translating to approximately 1.4 to 1.5 million households [3][6] - The average savings per capita in cities like Beijing may suggest a higher likelihood of million-yuan households, but this overlooks the reality of income inequality and the burden of mortgage debt [1][6] Summary by Categories Savings Data - In a nationwide survey conducted by the central bank in 2015, it was found that 99.63% of depositors had savings below 500,000 yuan, indicating that only 0.37% had savings exceeding this threshold [3] - The estimated number of households with savings over one million yuan is around 1.4 to 1.5 million, which is a small fraction of the total population [3] Economic Factors - The average annual income for a typical family in China is around 100,000 yuan, making it challenging to save significant amounts after daily expenses [4] - With a saving rate of 50,000 yuan per year, it would take approximately 20 years to accumulate one million yuan in savings [4] Asset Structure - Real estate constitutes 77% of household assets in China, while financial assets account for only 23%, indicating a heavy reliance on property for wealth accumulation [4] - The total personal mortgage debt exceeds 38 trillion yuan, affecting many families' ability to save due to high monthly payments [4] Consumer Behavior - The trend of excessive consumption is prevalent, particularly among the post-90s generation, with 90% of this demographic reportedly having an average debt of 127,000 yuan [4] - This lifestyle leads to many young individuals not only lacking savings but also accumulating significant debt [4]

Core Insights - The pursuit of financial freedom has become a significant goal for many individuals, with personal savings often used as a benchmark for economic strength [1] - To surpass 98% of households in China, an individual needs to have savings exceeding 500,000 yuan, which only about 2% of the population currently achieves [1][4] Group 1: Savings Trends - The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an increase in savings enthusiasm among the population, yet the number of individuals with substantial savings remains low [1] - Many young people are struggling with savings, with some only managing to save a few thousand yuan despite working hard for several months [4] - The phenomenon of "moonlight clan" individuals, who spend their entire monthly income, is prevalent, with some even borrowing money to meet their consumption desires [4][7] Group 2: Consumption Habits - The rise of "premature consumption" is linked to a consumer culture driven by abundant advertising and the availability of credit tools like credit cards and online loans [7] - This consumption pattern poses risks, as losing a source of income can lead to significant financial distress and damage to credit ratings [7] Group 3: Housing Market Impact - A significant portion of personal finances is directed towards real estate, with soaring property prices making home ownership increasingly difficult for many [7][10] - Monthly salaries are often consumed by mortgage payments, leaving little room for savings, compounded by additional costs for home renovations and furnishings [10] Group 4: Rising Living Costs - The overall increase in living costs, including daily expenses and education for children, further strains individuals' ability to save [10][11] - Medical expenses for aging parents also contribute to financial pressures, making it challenging for many to accumulate savings [11]

我国居民储蓄率长期高于国际平均水平，这源于国人将存款视为重要的安全保障。三年疫情的冲击更强化了这种观念，储蓄成为应对失业、疾病等风险的最 后防线，尤其在股票、基金等投资市场波动较大的背景下，银行存款的安全性更显突出。 近期央行公布的数据显示，中国存款总额高达227万亿元，位居全 球第一。然而，这一巨额数字包含了企业和政府存款，而仅就居民存款而言，截至六月末已达到惊人的132.21万亿元。 若以14.1亿人口平均计算，人均存款达到9.4万元；按三口之家计算，平均每个家庭存款则高达28.26万元。这一数据引发了众多网友的热议，不少人自嘲拖 了人均存款的后腿。然而，平均数并非中位数，多数人的实际存款低于平均水平实属正常现象。 那么，为何在人均存款高达9.4万元的情况下，仍有大量国人存款不足甚至负债累累呢？这背后存在着多重复杂因素： 首先，中国社会贫富差距悬殊。招商银行数据显示，仅2%的人口掌握着80%的存款，其余98%的人口仅分享剩余的20%。这种极度不均衡的财富分配格局， 使得人均存款数据无法真实反映多数人的经济状况。 其次，收入与支出之间的矛盾日益突出。多数居民月收入仅为数千元，却面临着巨大的生活压力。除了日常 ...

Core Insights - TikTok Shop has regained its position in Thailand, surpassing the U.S. and Indonesia in both gross merchandise value (GMV) and growth rate, with Thailand achieving a GMV of $25-30 billion and a quarterly growth of 217% [2][4] - The rise of Thailand as a leading market for TikTok Shop reflects its unique position in Southeast Asia, where it has been less impacted by regulatory pressures compared to other countries like Indonesia and Vietnam [2][10] Group 1: Market Performance - TikTok Shop's global GMV reached $10 billion in Q1 2025, marking a 42% year-over-year increase [2] - Thailand's TikTok Shop achieved a GMV of $25-30 billion, while the U.S. and Indonesia reported GMVs of $20-25 billion and $15-20 billion, respectively [2] - Thailand's TikTok Shop is the first to achieve both growth rate and volume "double champion" status [2] Group 2: E-commerce Landscape - Southeast Asia's e-commerce GMV is projected to reach $159 billion in 2024, with video commerce's share increasing from under 5% in 2020 to 20% [4] - Thailand has a high online shopping rate, with 96.2% of respondents aged 16 and above shopping online weekly, the highest globally [4][5] - The number of influencers in Thailand is expected to grow from 2 million to 3 million, with many engaged in live commerce [6] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Thai users spend an average of 1.8 hours daily on TikTok Shop, significantly higher than traditional e-commerce platforms [7] - Young consumers in Thailand exhibit strong spending power, often engaging in pre-spending behaviors [7] - Social media significantly influences shopping habits, with local celebrities driving product popularity [7] Group 4: Regulatory Environment - Thailand is perceived as the most welcoming Southeast Asian country for Chinese e-commerce platforms, contrasting with the regulatory challenges faced in Indonesia and Vietnam [8][10] - The Thai government is revising foreign ownership laws to attract more foreign investment, which could benefit platforms like TikTok Shop [11] Group 5: Challenges and Adaptation - The Thai market is experiencing a shift in cross-border e-commerce regulations, with new VAT laws impacting foreign sellers [12][15] - TikTok Shop has implemented compliance policies for cross-border stores, requiring registration for sales exceeding 180,000 THB [15] - Despite the potential for explosive sales, understanding local market dynamics is crucial for success in Thailand [15][16]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant disparity in consumer spending between the United States and China, with the U.S. leading at $15 trillion compared to China's $6.7 trillion despite China's larger population of 1.4 billion [1][10]. Group 1: Consumer Behavior - American consumers tend to embrace a culture of forward consumption, often relying on credit, with an average debt of $141,500 per person and about 40% of the population in debt [3][5]. - In contrast, Chinese consumers prioritize savings and financial security, reflecting a cultural inclination towards frugality and risk management [12][15]. - The average annual salary in the U.S. is $45,000, while China's disposable income was only 32,000 RMB in 2020, limiting the latter's consumer spending capacity [10][15]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The article discusses how the disparity in consumer spending affects economic growth, as insufficient consumer demand can lead to unsold products and hinder investment [11]. - The U.S. has a well-established social security system that supports consumer spending even during unemployment, fostering a culture of spending [12]. - China is working to narrow the income gap with the U.S. and enhance consumer spending power through stable income growth initiatives [18]. Group 3: Housing and Cost of Living - High housing prices in China, particularly in first-tier cities, create significant financial burdens for residents, limiting their disposable income for consumption [15]. - In the U.S., housing costs are relatively manageable, with policies in place to alleviate financial pressure on homeowners [15][17]. - The overall cost of living, including prices for goods, also contributes to the higher consumer spending in the U.S., as illustrated by the price comparison of jeans between the two countries [17].

图片来自网络 美国之所以鼓励超前消费、贷款消费，用经济学家的话来说就是：美国当时生产力的增长，已经远远超 过了消费能力的增长。 消费跟不上生产力的时候，正确的处理方式应该是让生产力增长慢下来，等等消费能力的增长。可是美 国的企业等不及，毕竟生产出来的大量产品如果卖不出去，就全砸在自己手里了。于是，就呼吁大家贷 款消费。 问题是，贷款说白了就是借钱，借来的钱终归是要还的。 你想慢慢还？那不妨来看看现实有多残酷。 1929年8月，美国贷款炒股刚刚创下了历史记录。 20世纪20年代，美国诞生了一批民用消费产品，洗衣机、浴缸、咖啡机、收音机、烘干机等，成为了中 产阶级的标配。美国政府、美国银行更是鼓励所有人超前消费，花明天的钱，享受今天的生活。于是， 贷款消费成为了美国社会的主流，谁要是钱包里没几张信用卡，都不好意思出门。 1929年9月3日，道琼斯工业指数被推到了386点的历史最高值，比1921年整整增长了六倍还要多。 1929年9月4号，道琼斯指数开始全面下跌，跌了10个百分点。当时大伙以为这就是一次正常的回调，正 常的股市波动。 1929年10月24号，美国华尔街终于迎来了著名的 "黑色星期四" 。 这一天，从 ...