调研报告—铝合金 、smingfTable_Title] 华东再生铝调研： 废料紧缺给予强支撑，仓单或为博弈核心 | | | 报告日期： 2025 年 7 月 22 日 [Table_Summary] ★关键调研结论及分析 废铝采购较为紧张，主要受制于以下三点：a）进口受限：美国 "232"调查豁免废铝关税，精废价差快速扩大，美国虹吸全球 废铝资源。此外，马来堵港、泰国环境污染等因素导致市场加剧 失衡格局。b）国内废铝增量有限，但需求扩增：部分铝板带箔 厂为降本逐渐提升废铝比例，而近两年废铝报废高峰尚未来临。 c）结构上部分大厂仅采购大型带票回收商：因废铝回收端市场 集中度较低，废铝市场对买方存在信息不对称壁垒，部分大厂为 规避采购风险仅接受大型带票打包厂货源，造成可采范围较小。 开工情况：调研企业开工率高于行业平均（行业平均低于 50%）， 具备 50-60%以上的铝液直供比例，最长铝液直供运输可达 300km。其中 ADC12 生产占比差异较大，范围在产量的 20-50% 左右。销售方面，企业下游订单均以长协为主，普遍有账期。 成本：税负方面，江苏及上海的企业综合税负预计高出安徽 2 个百分点，但部分企业 ...

Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Paper Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] - Sugar: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Apple: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the market operability is poor, with a focus on waiting and seeing [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of various soft commodities show different trends, and the influencing factors include supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, and macro - economic factors. The investment strategies for different commodities mainly include waiting and seeing, intraday trading, or taking appropriate positions at low prices [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices pulled back today. The basis of domestic cotton spot sales was firm, and spot trading was average. The rise in Zhengzhou cotton was due to tight commercial cotton inventories and the possibility of a soft squeeze. Cotton yarn prices rose, but market trading did not improve significantly. As of the end of June, cotton commercial inventory was 2829800 tons, a decrease of 628900 tons from the end of May. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct intraday trading [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, rainfall in the main producing areas in the second half of June affected the sugarcane harvest, and the sugarcane crushing volume decreased year - on - year. The sugar - making ratio increased year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In June 2025, China imported 420000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 392300 tons; imported syrup and premixed powder was 115500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103500 tons. Although Guangxi had an increase in production this year, due to the fast sales pace, inventory decreased year - on - year, and the spot pressure was relatively light. It is expected that sugar prices will remain volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. Early - maturing apples were on the market, and cold - storage apple prices weakened. The demand for apples was low due to the large supply of seasonal fruits and hot weather. As of July 18, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 734100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 42.55%. The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season output estimate. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU&MR rose slightly, and BR rose significantly. The domestic prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber continued to rise. The global natural rubber supply is gradually entering the high - yield period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate rebounded last week. The downstream demand improved, the rubber supply increased, the natural rubber inventory increased, and the synthetic rubber inventory decreased. The market sentiment improved, and there were potential policy benefits. The strategy is to go long on rebounds [5] Paper Pulp - Today, pulp prices continued to rise. As of July 17, 2025, the inventory of mainstream ports in China was 2181000 tons, a 0.2 - million - ton increase from the previous period. China's pulp imports in June were still relatively high. Currently, the import inventory is high year - on - year, the pulp supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or buy lightly at low prices [6] Timber - The futures price continued to rebound, and the mainstream spot price remained stable. As of July 18, the average daily outbound volume of 13 ports in China was 62400 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 6.12%. The total port inventory was 3.29 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 70000 cubic meters. Due to poor profits, the shipment volume of New Zealand timber will remain low, but domestic demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see [7]