多晶硅：短期偏弱，关注前期低点支撑 工业硅：震荡偏强，多单持有 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号：F03129697 投资咨询证号：Z0020351 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 工业硅基本面数据跟踪 | 6 | | 第三章 | 多晶硅基本面数据跟踪 | 17 | 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 多晶硅综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 从供需来看，11月硅片排产环比10月降低1GW至59GW，折算多晶硅需求约11.8万吨。11月多晶硅产量11.5-12万 吨，多晶硅紧平衡。当前多晶硅上游库存25万吨左右，下游原料库存约17万吨，仓单及贸易商库存约4.5万吨。 从基本面来看，本月多晶硅供需边际好转，但下游硅片、电池价格承压且拉晶厂库存较高，现货价格进一步上涨较 为困难。10月多晶硅厂 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) plays a crucial role in serving the real economy, with its delivery amount accounting for approximately 60% of the total market and delivery volume around 30% in 2024 [2] - SHFE has established a strong connection between the derivatives market and production, trade, and downstream consumption enterprises through its network of 135 storage companies and 277 storage points nationwide [2] - The event held in Chengdu aimed to enhance the service capabilities of futures companies to better support the real economy, featuring insights from various departments of SHFE and experts from futures institutions [1][2] Group 2 - Companies in the bulk commodity sector face significant profit volatility due to high raw material costs and price fluctuations, making effective use of futures and options essential for stable operations [4] - For instance, Sichuan Shenglin New Materials Technology Co., Ltd., a recycled aluminum alloy producer, has seen its profit margins drop to only 2% to 3% due to market pressures [5] - The company has utilized hedging strategies with the assistance of local futures companies to mitigate operational risks and stabilize profits [6] Group 3 - The growth of industrial clients at Wukuang Futures Chengdu Branch has been attributed to improved service capabilities, with the average daily equity scale increasing over tenfold since 2021 and a compound annual growth rate of over 200% in new accounts [8][9] - The existing industrial clients are primarily in the new energy and metals sectors, participating in trading of lithium carbonate, copper, and aluminum, which complements the company's national layout [10] - With the support of the futures market, Shenglin New Materials is seeking to expand its production capacity and enhance its sales channels through the application for SHFE delivery brands [10]

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint Supply -产区雨水偏多至月底,原料价格上涨,短时成本端支撑胶价,中长线供应放量预期仍在;需求 - 半钢胎企业排产稳定,全钢胎企业出货平稳但部分库存攀升;隔夜美联储对12月降息前景偏鹰,胶价短期承压,后续关注主产区旺产期原料产出及宏观变化,若原料上量顺利胶价有下行空间,若不畅预计胶价在15000 - 15500附近运行 [1] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: 云南国富手机胶等部分现货价格有涨跌,如云南国富手机胶涨0.34%,泰标混合胶跌1.32% [1] - **Inter - monthly Spread**: 9 - 1价差等有变动,如9 - 1价差涨3.45%,1 - 5价差跌12.50% [1] - **Fundamental Data**: 8月部分国家产量有变化,如泰国产量降0.43%,印度产量涨11.11%;轮胎开工率、产量、出口量及橡胶进口量等有不同表现,如8月国内轮胎产量涨9.10%,9月轮胎出口量降10.65% [1] - **Inventory Change**: 保税区库存等有增减,如保税区库存降1.20%,上期所厂库期货库存涨6.28% [1] Group 2: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint 本周供应端到港量大增,但下游订单不足,周边港口价格下行,市场承压;盘面价格处相对低位,内外盘价格倒挂形成进口成本支撑,限制下方空间,供需双弱格局下,原木期货盘面预计仍将维持偏弱震荡运行 [3] Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: 原木期货部分合约价格下跌,如主力LG2601跌1元/立方米;部分现货价格下降,如江苏4米中A辐射松价格降10元/方 [3] - **Cost**: 人民币兑美元汇率及进口理论成本变化小,分别涨0%和0% [3] - **Supply**: 港口发运量和离港船数增加,如新西兰→中日韩港口发运量涨6.00%,离港船数涨4.55% [3] - **Inventory**: 全国针叶原木总库存减少,日均出库量增加,如库存降2.74%,出库量增2% [3] Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint - **Soda Ash**: 宏观因素使商品盘面利空,前期反弹停止;周产高位,刚需过剩,厂家库存转移至中下游;中期下游产能无大幅增量,需求延续刚需格局,供需承压;阶段性利空基本出尽,建议前期空单止盈离场,短期观望,等待反弹空机会 [4] - **Glass**: 宏观因素使商品盘面利空,前期反弹停止;前几日玻璃现货产销转暖带动盘面反弹,中下游补库,期现商采购积极;深加工订单季节性好转但仍弱,地产周期底部竣工缩量,行业需产能出清;前期盘面下跌利空基本兑现,建议前期空单离场,关注现货捕捉短多机会 [4] Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: 玻璃部分合约价格下跌,如玻璃2505跌2.81%,玻璃2509跌2.21% [4] - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: 纯碱部分合约价格下跌,如纯碱2505跌1.71%,纯碱2509跌1.34% [4] - **Supply**: 纯碱开工率和周产量下降,光伏日熔量下降,如纯碱开工率降1.72%,周产量降1.71%,光伏日熔量降0.84% [4] - **Inventory**: 玻璃厂库和纯碱厂库库存增加,纯碱交割库库存减少,如玻璃厂库增4.72%,纯碱厂库增2.54%,纯碱交割库降3.18% [4] - **Real Estate Data**: 新开工面积等有变化,如新开工面积涨幅0.09%,施工面积降2.43% [4] Group 4: Industrial Silicone Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint 工业硅现货价格上涨,期货价格先涨后回落;周度供应端产量增加,需求端产量下降或致累库施压价格;华东套利窗口打开或带来套保机会;焦煤价格上涨或带动期价;工业硅供应增加使价格承压,但有成本支撑,预计低位震荡,价格波动区间8500 - 9500元/吨 [5] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: 华东通氧SI5530等现货价格上涨,如华东通氧SI5530涨1.07%,华东SI4210涨0.52% [5] - **Inter - monthly Spread**: 部分合约价差有变动,如2512 - 2601价差涨200.00%,2601 - 2602价差跌66.67% [5] - **Fundamental Data**: 全国和部分地区工业硅产量、开工率有变化,如全国工业硅产量涨9.10%,新疆开工率涨22.09%;有机硅DMC等产量有增减,如有机硅DMC产量降5.78%,再生铝合金产量涨7.48% [5] - **Inventory Change**: 新疆厂库等库存有增减,如新疆厂库库存降0.28%,云南厂库库存涨1.47% [5] Group 5: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint 多晶硅现货价格小幅下跌,期货价格震荡下跌;供应端11月产量有望下降,周度产量和硅片产量均有3 - 4%降幅;需求端硅片排产增加但下游采购减少,库存增加;多晶硅高位震荡,关注平台公司成立、产量控制及需求端订单情况;期货升水现货均价,继续大幅上涨需关注上游套保套利空间 [7] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: N型复投料平均价等有涨跌,如N型复投料平均价跌0.10%,N型颗粒硅平均价持平 [7] - **Futures Price and Inter - monthly Spread**: 主力合约等价格和价差有变动,如主力合约跌0.07%,景月 - 连一价差跌16.06% [7] - **Fundamental Data**: 周度和月度多晶硅、硅片产量等有变化,如周度多晶硅产量降4.41%,月度硅片产量涨5.37% [7] - **Inventory Change**: 多晶硅和硅片库存增加,如多晶硅库存涨1.16%,硅片库存涨2.49% [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - For polysilicon: Hold long positions [1] - For industrial silicon: Wait for a full correction [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the polysilicon market, with progress in capacity integration and expected improvement in supply - demand, polysilicon futures are expected to rise and may hit a new high since listing. In the industrial silicon market, although the current inventory structure and production - demand situation lead to a weak price trend, the short - term downward space is limited, and long positions can be considered after a full correction [5][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Polysilicon - **Supply - demand analysis**: In October, silicon wafer production increased by 3GW to 62GW, corresponding to a polysilicon demand of about 124,000 tons. Polysilicon production was around 130,000 tons, with a slight inventory build - up. The current total inventory is about 500,000 tons. In November, southwest polysilicon capacity may significantly reduce production, and silicon wafer production is likely to stay above 50GW [5] - **Trading logic**: The main short - term negative factor is the non - transferable warehouse receipts of the November contract, but their impact on prices is limited. High - inventory manufacturers have no incentive to lower prices, so the spot price is expected to be stable with an upward bias in the short and medium term [5] - **Operation strategy**: Hold long positions for single - side trading; conduct reverse arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts; sell put options and buy call options [6] Industrial Silicon - **Supply - demand analysis**: This week, DMC weekly production decreased by 2.73% to 46,300 tons, polysilicon weekly production decreased by 1.28% to 31,500 tons. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 0.2 percentage points to 58.4%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 58.6%. Industrial silicon weekly production increased by 2.09% to 97,500 tons. The total number of open furnaces remained at 318. Industrial silicon social inventory increased by 0.7 million tons to 562,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory increased by 0.57 million tons to 170,600 tons, and downstream raw material inventory decreased by 0.2 million tons to 23,900 tons [7][27][28] - **Trading logic**: The current inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle", prone to positive feedback between futures and spot. The resumption of production by leading manufacturers and the expected decline in polysilicon production in November have led to weak futures prices. However, the acceptance of high - priced industrial silicon by downstream has increased, and the actual transaction price of spot has not significantly decreased. The short - term downward space is limited [7] - **Operation strategy**: Close short positions for single - side trading; no options or arbitrage strategies are recommended for now [8] Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Market trend**: This week, industrial silicon futures fluctuated weakly, with the main contract closing at 8,430 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price decreased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton [11] - **Downstream demand**: DMC production decreased by 2.73%, polysilicon production decreased by 1.28%, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 0.2 percentage points, and that of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 0.3 percentage points [14] - **Production**: Industrial silicon production increased by 2.09% to 97,500 tons this week. Yunnan, Sichuan, and Gansu reduced the number of open furnaces, while Xinjiang's leading manufacturers increased the number of open furnaces, and there are rumors of further increases [27] - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon social inventory increased by 0.7 million tons to 562,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory increased by 0.57 million tons to 170,600 tons, and downstream raw material inventory decreased by 0.2 million tons to 23,900 tons [28] - **Related product prices**: Industrial silicon spot prices weakened this week, while DMC and terminal product prices of organic silicon increased slightly [33][38] - **Raw material prices**: The price of Xinjiang refined coal decreased [50] Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Price trend**: This week, polysilicon spot prices increased. N - type polysilicon prices were in the range of 49.5 - 55 yuan/kg, and some low - price ranges of N - type re -投料 increased by 500 yuan/ton. Silicon wafer and battery prices remained stable, while some component prices increased [56][63][72] - **Component fundamentals**: Domestic component orders are average, with a neutral to high inventory. Component production in October decreased slightly to 46GW [81] - **Battery fundamentals**: Battery export demand is good, with a neutral inventory of 6.63GW. Due to the decrease in component production in October, battery production increased to 56GW [88] - **Silicon wafer fundamentals**: This week, the operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises increased, with a weekly production of 14.35GW. Silicon wafer inventory is 17.31GW, and the production in October was 62GW, an increase of 3GW compared to August [93] - **Polysilicon fundamentals**: This week, polysilicon production slightly decreased, and factory inventory increased slightly to 253,000 tons. The expected production in October is about 130,000 tons [98]

Core Insights - The aluminum industry in China is undergoing a significant transformation, moving from scale leadership to global competitiveness, with a focus on high-end applications and sustainable practices [2][4][13] Industry Overview - Binzhou, known as the "Aluminum Valley" of China, has established a complete industrial cluster from alumina, electrolytic aluminum to high-precision processed materials, with alumina capacity accounting for 25% and electrolytic aluminum capacity for 16% of the national total [4] - The industry is shifting from expansion in scale to quality and efficiency, and from single processing to full-chain collaboration, responding to global industrial upgrades and green low-carbon transitions [4][9] Innovations and Developments - The upcoming Binzhou Aluminum Expo will showcase innovations in the recycling system for aluminum, including efficient waste aluminum recovery and low-energy production processes, aligning with "green dual carbon" goals [9] - Advanced products such as aerospace-grade aluminum alloys, integrated die-casting aluminum components for electric vehicles, and precision aluminum foils for high-end electronics will be featured, highlighting the transition from basic processing to deep manufacturing [9][10] Collaborative Platform - The expo will serve as a connector for collaborative innovation across the industry chain, gathering over 300 leading enterprises and research institutions, facilitating connections from material research to application implementation [10][13] - The event represents a platform for showcasing the integration of regional clusters with global markets, emphasizing the industry's commitment to innovation and transformation [10][13] Future Outlook - The Binzhou Aluminum Expo is positioned as a window for the Chinese aluminum industry to convey its "innovative strength" and "transformation determination" to the world, marking a shift from quantity accumulation to quality leap [13][15]

Core Insights - Brunei's Guangxi Huahang Aluminum Industry (Brunei) has received the first import license for recycled aluminum, with the Brunei National Investment Fund committing to invest 30% of the total project cost, which amounts to 30% equity in the company [1] - The project aims to establish a stable import channel for recycled aluminum through the Brunei-Guangxi Economic Corridor, previously reliant on Malaysia and Indonesia [1] - The project will be developed in three phases, with an initial investment of 10 million Brunei dollars (approximately 56 million RMB) to achieve an annual production of 200,000 tons of recycled aluminum [1] Company Developments - The Huahang Aluminum project in Brunei plans to expand its production capacity through three phases, with total investments of 10 million, 20 million, and 200 million Brunei dollars, respectively, leading to a total annual production of 80 tons of aluminum products [1] - The company has achieved a 20% increase in the strength of recycled aluminum alloys and a 35% reduction in weight, with 30% of its annual capacity of 100,000 tons being exported [2] - The unique technology developed by the company allows for 95% recycling of aluminum, significantly reducing carbon emissions compared to electrolytic aluminum production [2] Industry Trends - The push for recycled non-ferrous metals is gaining momentum in China, with ports accelerating the expansion of overseas sourcing channels [3] - The establishment of innovative customs clearance models for recycled metals, such as the one implemented by Ningbo Customs for recycled copper, is being suggested for Guangxi to enhance its position in the global aluminum processing market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market is experiencing a short-term high-level fluctuation due to increased production in Xinjiang and strong coal prices providing cost support, despite overall inventory levels being high [3]. Supply - In Xinjiang, the weekly industrial silicon production increased by 0.15 million tons to 33.6 thousand tons, with the operating rate rising by 3.1% to 69.36% [2]. - In Yunnan, production slightly increased by 50 tons to 7,565 tons, while Sichuan's production remained stable at 2,135 tons [2]. Demand - The operating rates for recycled and primary aluminum alloys remained stable week-on-week, with a slight decrease in aluminum alloy spot prices [2]. - The weekly production of organic silicon DMC saw a minor increase, while spot prices remained stable; however, the production of polysilicon decreased by 200 tons to 31,000 tons, still at a high level [2]. Inventory - Social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.4 million tons to 543 thousand tons, remaining at a high level compared to the same period last year [2]. - Downstream industrial silicon inventory was stable at 221.5 thousand tons, and registered warehouse receipts totaled 49,874 hands, also stable week-on-week [2]. Price and Profit - As of September 19, the price in East China was 9,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton week-on-week, with a basis of -1,705 yuan/ton, down 460 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of silicon coal in Xinjiang increased by 200 yuan/ton to 1,500 yuan/ton, leading to a decrease in industrial silicon production profits week-on-week [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For polysilicon, the long - term price upward trend is certain, recommended to buy on dips in the medium - long term; short - term is volatile, and there may be a deep correction in futures prices. For industrial silicon, the short - term price may correct, but the decline is limited, and it is recommended to participate in long positions after a sufficient correction [4][6] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Polysilicon**: In September, silicon wafer production is expected to increase by 6GW to 58GW, corresponding to a polysilicon demand of about 116,000 tons. The polysilicon production is expected to remain around 130,000 tons. The total inventory in the polysilicon industry is close to 400,000 tons, and the downstream inventory is about 180,000 - 200,000 tons. Long - term price is likely to rise, short - term is volatile. Operation strategies include buying on dips for far - month contracts, and conducting reverse arbitrage for 2511 and 2512 contracts [4][5] - **Industrial silicon**: This week, DMC weekly production increased by 0.62% to 48,900 tons, polysilicon weekly production decreased by 0.60% to 31,200 tons, primary aluminum alloy operating rate increased by 1 percentage point to 57.6%, and recycled aluminum alloy operating rate remained flat at 55.5%. Industrial silicon weekly production increased by 2.75% to 95,500 tons. Social inventory increased by 20,000 tons to 539,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory increased by 3,100 tons to 176,700 tons, and downstream raw material inventory decreased by 2,700 tons to 221,600 tons. The short - term price may correct, and it is recommended to avoid short - term long positions, sell out - of - the - money put options or participate in long positions after a sufficient correction, and conduct reverse arbitrage for 11 and 12 contracts [6][7] Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Market Performance**: This week, industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 8,745 yuan/ton. Spot prices generally rose by 100 yuan/ton [10] - **Downstream Demand**: DMC production increased, polysilicon production slightly decreased, and aluminum alloy operating rate increased. DMC weekly production was 48,900 tons, polysilicon weekly production was 31,200 tons, primary aluminum alloy operating rate was 57.6%, and recycled aluminum alloy operating rate was 55.5% [13] - **Production**: This week, industrial silicon weekly production was 95,500 tons, a 2.75% increase. The number of furnaces in Xinjiang increased by 7, and it is expected that industrial silicon production will increase slightly in the future [25] - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 20,000 tons to 539,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory increased by 3,100 tons to 176,700 tons, and downstream raw material inventory decreased by 2,700 tons to 221,600 tons [26] - **Product Prices**: Industrial silicon spot prices strengthened, organic silicon - related product prices were stable, organic silicon intermediate operating rate increased slightly, and aluminum alloy operating rate increased slightly. Xinjiang refined coal prices and charcoal prices rose [31][35][41][45][48] Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Price**: This week, polysilicon spot prices decreased. N - type re - feedstock price was 49.1 - 54 yuan/kg, N - type dense material price was 48.1 - 52 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon price was 48 - 49 yuan/kg. The lower limit of rod - shaped silicon price decreased by 1,000 yuan/ton compared with last week, and granular silicon price remained stable [54][61] - **Silicon Wafer and Battery**: Silicon wafer and battery prices strengthened. Leading enterprises raised silicon wafer quotes, and battery prices increased accordingly. It is expected that battery quotes may continue to rise [62][68] - **Component**: Some component prices increased. Domestic photovoltaic component prices increased, and the cost - side supported the price increase. Some projects have accepted higher prices [69] - **Fundamental Data**: Component domestic orders are average, inventory is moderately high, and the production schedule in September is slightly increased to 45GW. Battery export demand is good, inventory is moderately high, and the production schedule is increased to 57GW. Silicon wafer enterprise operating rate increased, weekly production reached 13.88GW, inventory is 16.55GW, and the production in September is expected to be 58GW. Polysilicon production decreased slightly this week, and factory inventory increased to 234,200 tons. The production in September is expected to be flat compared with August, around 130,000 tons [77][83][88][93]

Group 1 - The core idea of the article is the emergence of a circular economy in the town of Laohekou, Hubei, which has attracted over 13,000 people to return for employment and entrepreneurship through the integration of employment and industry [1][2]. - Laohekou, as an old industrial base, has focused on cultivating and expanding the circular economy sector, establishing a resource recycling hub and creating over 420 returnee projects and 15 employment and entrepreneurship platforms [2]. - The local industry is accelerating the energy-saving and carbon-reduction transformation of recycled aluminum alloy casting production lines to enhance production capacity, particularly in the context of the booming new energy vehicle sector [2][4]. Group 2 - The local human resources department has organized specialized job fairs to connect job seekers with companies, resulting in significant employment opportunities and allowing workers to stay close to home [4]. - The integration of employment and industry, along with skills training and policy support, is driving a positive interaction between employment growth and industrial upgrading, contributing to high-quality development in the region [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive performance of the industrial silicon futures market, with the main contract reaching 8615.0 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 3.42% [1] - The central bank is implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on promoting a reasonable recovery in prices as a key consideration for monetary policy [1] - Supply-side analysis indicates that industrial silicon production is expected to rise due to favorable hedging opportunities for producers and reduced electricity prices in the southwest production areas during the abundant water period [1] Group 2 - Demand-side insights reveal that leading silicon material manufacturers in Yunnan are increasing production, alongside rising operating rates in Sichuan and Qinghai, resulting in a week-on-week increase in polysilicon output [1] - The operating rates of organic silicon enterprises continue to rise, while the operating rates of recycled aluminum alloy companies are on a downward trend due to raw material supply shortages and weak market demand [1] - The outlook for the industrial silicon market suggests no significant supply-demand contradictions, with a focus on range-bound trading influenced by the trends of coking coal and polysilicon [1]