Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals, particularly casting aluminum alloy, is experiencing a collective upward trend, with the main contract opening at 22,490.0 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 23,060.0 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 2.14% [1] - The market for casting aluminum alloy is showing a strong upward trend, supported by high aluminum prices and the implementation of the "Two New" policy in 2026, which has led to a slight increase in scrap aluminum prices, thereby strengthening the cost support for aluminum alloy [2] - Environmental policies and tight raw material supply are putting pressure on production costs, potentially leading to a reduction in output, while demand is weakening due to seasonal factors, resulting in a subdued market for spot transactions [2] Group 2 - The recycled aluminum alloy market is facing weak consumption, with prices rising but downstream die-casting enterprises struggling to accept these increases, leading to a decline in demand [3] - The operating rates of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises remain stable, but there is an accumulation of finished product inventory, indicating a mismatch between supply and demand [3] - The price of recycled aluminum alloy is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices in the short term, with a recommendation for cautious trading strategies [3]

多晶硅：价格波动较大，注意风险控制 工业硅：短期偏强，中期逢高沽空 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号：F03129697 投资咨询证号：Z0020351 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 工业硅基本面数据跟踪 | 6 | | 第三章 | 多晶硅基本面数据跟踪 | 17 | 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 多晶硅综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 从供需来看，12月硅片排产环比11月降低9GW至45GW，折算多晶硅需求约9万吨。12月多晶硅产量11.2万吨，多 晶硅延续累库趋势。当前多晶硅上游库存29万吨左右，下游原料库存约15万吨，仓单及贸易商库存约4万吨。 上周部分多晶硅企业上调现货报价至6.5万元/吨以上，西安光伏大会上下游各环节均发出自律倡议，产业链各环节 严控开工率和价格。从中长 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. In November, the supply and demand of the industrial silicon market will both decline, with a larger decline in supply. However, due to the large supply base and the replenishment of the spot market by cancelled warehouse receipts, there is still expected to be inventory accumulation pressure. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [1]. Polysilicon - It is expected to maintain a high - level range oscillation. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand decline, with inventory accumulation expected in each link, but strong spot support. The backwardation market structure will remain. For trading strategies, try to go long at around 50,000 for futures; hold or take profit on sell put options for options, and consider buying straddles if volatility decreases [2]. Tin - With strong fundamentals, a bullish view on tin prices is maintained. Hold previous long positions and pay attention to macro - end changes and the recovery of supply in Myanmar [4]. Aluminum - Alumina is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation, with the main contract operating in the range of 2,700 - 2,850 yuan/ton. Whether the market can rebound depends on the actual production cut scale of existing enterprises and the inventory inflection point. Electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract operating in the range of 21,100 - 21,700 yuan/ton. Focus on overseas monetary policy trends and domestic inventory destocking rhythm [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate. The supply - side pressure has gradually eased, and the demand side has shown a structural improvement. However, the terminal demand has remained stable, and there is limited upward momentum. The main reference range is 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton [7]. Copper - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices. Pay attention to macro - drivers such as overseas interest - rate cut expectations. The main reference range is 85,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - The macro - situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals remain weak. However, due to upstream production cuts and low valuations, the market may oscillate and repair. In the medium term, the abundant supply will still restrict the upward space of prices. The main reference range is 116,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of ADC12 is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and the change in downstream procurement rhythm [11]. Stainless Steel - The policy - driven effect is difficult to be directly transmitted in the short term, cost support is weakening, and the fundamental structure has not improved significantly. There is still pressure on the supply - side steel mill production schedule and social inventory, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate, with the main operating range of 12,300 - 12,700 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The market is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with the main reference range of 90,000 - 95,000 yuan. Although the market has a bullish sentiment, there is limited substantial new driving force [15]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Spot Prices and Basis - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon remained stable on November 25, 2025, while the basis of some varieties decreased. For example, the basis of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 20 yuan to 540 yuan, with a decline of 3.57% [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable, while the price of battery cells decreased. The main contract of polysilicon futures closed at 54,730 yuan/ton, up 1,415 yuan/ton [2]. - **Tin**: The spot prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin increased by 1,700 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.58%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 18.32 US dollars/ton, with a rise of 19.15% [4]. - **Aluminum**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 80 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.37%. The price of alumina in various regions remained stable [6]. - **Zinc**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 20 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.09%. The import loss was - 4,312 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32.69 yuan/ton [7]. - **Copper**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 375 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.43%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 378.62 yuan/ton, with a rise of 13.42% [8]. - **Nickel**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 800 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.68%. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.22% [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable on November 26, 2025. The refined - scrap price difference of some regions changed, such as the refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased by 80 yuan/ton, with a rise of 4.57% [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained stable at 12,700 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, while the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 100 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.79% [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The prices of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. decreased slightly on November 26, 2025. For example, the price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.11% [15]. Monthly Spreads - Different contracts of various metals showed different changes in monthly spreads. For example, in industrial silicon, the spreads of contracts such as 2512 - 2601 remained unchanged; in tin, the spread of 2601 - 2602 increased by 450 yuan/ton, with a rise of 107.14% [1][4]. Fundamental Data Production - **Industrial Silicon**: In November, the national industrial silicon production is expected to decline to around 400,000 tons. In October, the national industrial silicon production was 452,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.46%. The production in Xinjiang increased by 15.94%, while that in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The monthly production in October was 134,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.08%. The weekly production was 27,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.12% [2]. - **Tin**: In October, SMM refined tin production was 16,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 53.09%. The average operating rate was 66.81%, a month - on - month increase of 53.23% [4]. - **Aluminum**: In October, alumina production was 778,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%; electrolytic aluminum production was 374,210 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52% [6]. - **Zinc**: In October, refined zinc production was 617,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85% [7]. - **Copper**: In October, electrolytic copper production was 1,091,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62% [8]. - **Nickel**: In October, China's refined nickel production was 35,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84% [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 645,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.42%; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 286,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.06% [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: In October, the production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 enterprises) was 1,787,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72% [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In October, lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73% [15]. Import and Export - Different metals have different import and export trends. For example, the import of refined tin in October decreased by 58.55% month - on - month, and the export decreased by 15.33% month - on - month; the import of electrolytic aluminum in October increased by 0.61% month - on - month, and the export decreased by 15.18% month - on - month [4][6]. Operating Rate - The operating rates of different industries also vary. For example, the national operating rate of industrial silicon in October was 68.12%, a month - on - month increase of 9.98%; the operating rate of aluminum profiles was 52.10%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.95% [1][6]. Inventory Changes - Different metals have different inventory trends. For example, the social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.37% week - on - week; the SHEF inventory of tin decreased by 0.46% week - on - week [1][4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of supervision by the discipline inspection and supervision commission in ensuring the successful construction and operation of key industrial projects, such as the Smart Xinyuan recycled aluminum alloy high-end intelligent industry project in Wuzhou [1] - Wuzhou has 35 ongoing industrial projects, with the Smart Xinyuan project being a representative example, highlighting the city's efforts to address construction challenges through direct engagement with project management [1] - The city is leveraging its geographical advantages to implement the "East Integration" strategy, actively connecting with the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and expanding its market presence [1] Group 2 - The Wuzhou Discipline Inspection and Supervision Commission is focusing on political supervision in key areas such as port construction, industrial development, and park reforms, aiming to enhance economic development through targeted oversight [2] - The commission has developed a supervision checklist for 15 specific reform and development tasks related to industrial parks, emphasizing the importance of integrated development of ports, industries, and parks [2] - The commission employs various supervision methods, including "embedded supervision," to identify and resolve issues related to policy implementation and service efficiency for enterprises [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - For polysilicon, it is recommended to pay attention to the implementation of the platform company and sell on rallies [1]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to trade in a range, with a strategy of high - selling and low - buying [1]. Core Viewpoints - In November, polysilicon was in a tight balance, but the silicon wafer and battery markets faced pressure. If the polysilicon platform company is launched as rumored, the polysilicon futures may rise, but the upside is limited due to pessimistic demand expectations. For now, it's better to wait and see [4]. - The industrial silicon market is in a tight balance. The price is expected to trade in the range of (8700, 9500) yuan/ton, with limited downside and upside space in the short term [7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Polysilicon - From a supply - demand perspective, in November, the silicon wafer production schedule decreased by 1GW to 59GW compared to October, translating to a polysilicon demand of about 118,000 tons. The polysilicon production was 115,000 tons, resulting in a tight balance. There were about 270,000 tons of upstream inventory, approximately 160,000 tons of downstream raw material inventory, and about 45,000 tons of warehouse receipt and trader inventory. The silicon wafer and battery markets faced pressure due to increased hoarding risks and cash - flow needs of some manufacturers. If the polysilicon platform company is launched as rumored, the futures may rise, but the upside is limited. Currently, it's advisable to wait and see [4]. - Trading strategies: For the short term, wait for more certain opportunities; no arbitrage or option strategies are recommended [6]. Industrial Silicon - Supply - demand situation: This week, the DMC weekly production was 49,200 tons, a 1.03% increase; the polysilicon weekly production was 27,500 tons, a 3.24% decrease; the primary aluminum alloy operating rate was 59.8%, unchanged; the recycled aluminum alloy operating rate was 60.6%, unchanged. The industrial silicon weekly production was 89,100 tons, a 1.42% increase. The industrial silicon social inventory was 548,000 tons, a 2,000 - ton increase; the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 180,600 tons, a 5,200 - ton increase; the downstream raw material inventory was 232,600 tons, a 2,700 - ton decrease [7]. - Trading logic: After the silicone industry meeting, there was no expected production cut, and the industrial silicon market remained in a tight balance. Factories were reluctant to sell below 9,400 yuan/ton, and downstream acceptance of the price was high. The basis was at a relatively high level, limiting the downside of the futures price. Without a further reduction in supply, the upside momentum was also insufficient. It is expected to trade in the range of (8700, 9500) yuan/ton [7]. - Trading strategies: Trade in the range with high - selling and low - buying; no arbitrage or option strategies are recommended [7]. Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Market Trends**: This week, the industrial silicon futures first rose and then fell, with the main contract closing at 8,960 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot prices generally increased by 50 yuan/ton [11]. - **Downstream Demand**: This week, the DMC production increased by 1.03% to 49,200 tons, the polysilicon production decreased by 3.24% to 27,500 tons, the primary aluminum alloy operating rate remained at 59.8%, and the recycled aluminum alloy operating rate remained at 60.6% [14]. - **Production**: This week, the industrial silicon weekly production was 89,100 tons, a 1.42% increase. The total number of open furnaces was 261, a decrease of 3. An enterprise in Yili stopped production, and the number of open furnaces in Xinjiang decreased. There are no expected changes in Xinjiang, but some furnaces in Yunnan and Sichuan may stop, and the production is expected to decrease next week [25]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon social inventory was 548,000 tons, a 2,000 - ton increase; the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 180,600 tons, a 5,200 - ton increase; the downstream raw material inventory was 232,600 tons, a 2,700 - ton decrease [26]. - **Related Product Prices**: This week, the industrial silicon spot prices increased slightly; the DMC and terminal product prices of organic silicon also increased; the industrial silicon raw material prices remained stable [31][36][48]. - **Downstream Industry Data**: The operating rate of organic silicon intermediates increased slightly; the primary aluminum alloy operating rate increased slightly, and the recycled aluminum alloy operating rate strengthened [42][45]. Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Price Trends**: This week, silicon wafers and batteries saw significant price drops. The polysilicon prices were relatively stable, while the prices of silicon wafers and batteries decreased compared to the end of September and last weekend [53][54]. - **Component Data**: Recently, component enterprises started to implement the spirit of the association meeting and gradually raised component quotes. In November, some component enterprises reduced production, but terminal demand provided some support. The component production schedule was expected to be 46GW. European component inventory increased to 35.4GW, and domestic manufacturers' inventory was 30.3GW, at a moderately low level [62]. - **Battery Data**: Battery export demand was good, but specialized battery manufacturers' inventory reached 10.21GW, showing obvious inventory accumulation and pressuring battery prices. In November, the component production schedule decreased, and the battery production schedule was adjusted to 54GW [63]. - **Silicon Wafer Data**: This week, the silicon wafer enterprises' operating rate decreased, and the weekly production dropped to 12.78GW. Silicon wafers were produced on - demand, with an inventory of 18.72GW. The November production schedule was 59GW, a 1GW decrease from October [68]. - **Polysilicon Data**: This week, polysilicon production decreased slightly, and the factory inventory increased slightly to 271,000 tons. In November, Tongwei planned to gradually stop production in Yunnan, Sichuan, and Inner Mongolia, with a total annual production suspension scale of 370,000 tons. Its production is expected to decrease by 20,000 - 25,000 tons compared to October and another 10,000 tons in December. Some new capacities of Asian Silicon, Daquan Energy, and Xinte Energy are ramping up, while GCL Technology has a certain production cut plan. Overall, the November production is expected to decrease by about 20,000 tons compared to October [73].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polysilicon: Short - term weak, pay attention to the support at the previous low point [1] - Industrial silicon: Oscillating strongly, hold long positions [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polysilicon is in a tight - balance state in November, but it is difficult for the spot price to rise further. The futures price is weak in the short - term, and there may be support at the (51000, 52000) level after the November delivery [4]. - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are in a tight - balance state. The current inventory structure is conducive to a positive feedback between futures and spot prices. There may be positive news from the silicone enterprise meeting next week, and there may be production restrictions in Xinjiang due to weather, so it is more cost - effective to hold long positions [6]. Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Polysilicon - **Supply and demand**: In November, the silicon wafer production schedule decreased by 1GW to 59GW compared with October, corresponding to a polysilicon demand of about 11.8 tons. The polysilicon production is 11.5 - 12 tons, showing a tight - balance state. The upstream inventory is about 25 tons, the downstream raw material inventory is about 17 tons, and the inventory of warrants and traders is about 4.5 tons [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand situation of polysilicon has improved marginally this month, but the prices of downstream silicon wafers and batteries are under pressure, and the inventory of crystal - pulling factories is high. It is difficult for the spot price to rise further. The futures price is weak in the short - term due to the lack of upward momentum in the spot price and the non - implementation of the platform company. After the November delivery, the negative impact of warrants on the futures price is significantly reduced, and there may be support at the (51000, 52000) level [4]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: Short - term weak, wait and see; Arbitrage: None; Options: Sell put options when the price pulls back to the support level [5]. Industrial Silicon - **Supply and demand**: This week, the weekly output of DMC increased by 5.51% to 4.79 tons, the weekly output of polysilicon decreased by 5.05% to 2.91 tons. The operating rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys are 59.4% (up 0.2 percentage points) and 59.1% (unchanged) respectively. The weekly output of industrial silicon decreased by 7.85% to 9.09 tons. The social inventory decreased by 0.6 tons to 55.2 tons, the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan increased by 0.39 tons to 17.48 tons, and the downstream raw material inventory decreased by 0.26 tons to 23.66 tons [6][13][26][27]. - **Trading logic**: The current inventory structure of industrial silicon is "low at both ends and high in the middle", which is conducive to a positive feedback between futures and spot prices. The high operating rates of silicone and aluminum alloy provide certain support for the demand of industrial silicon. Although the production of polysilicon has decreased significantly this month, the large - scale production cuts of silicon factories in Yunnan and Sichuan have led to a tight - balance state in the supply and demand of industrial silicon. There may be positive news from the silicone enterprise meeting next week, and there may be production restrictions in Xinjiang due to weather, so it is more cost - effective to hold long positions [6]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: Hold long positions; Arbitrage: None; Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [7]. Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Market review**: This week, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated strongly, and the main contract closed at 9220 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price remained stable [10]. - **Downstream demand**: The weekly output of DMC increased by 5.51% to 4.79 tons, the weekly output of polysilicon decreased by 5.05% to 2.91 tons. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 0.2 percentage points to 59.4%, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy remained unchanged at 59.1% [13]. - **Output**: The weekly output of industrial silicon decreased by 7.85% to 9.09 tons, and the total number of open furnaces decreased by 42 this week. The number of open furnaces in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased significantly, while that in Inner Mongolia, Henan, and Ningxia increased slightly. The operating rate of silicon factories in the northwest has reached a high level, and there is no significant room for production increase in the future. It is expected that the output of industrial silicon will continue to decrease next week [26]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 0.6 tons to 55.2 tons, the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan increased by 0.39 tons to 17.48 tons, and the downstream raw material inventory decreased by 0.26 tons to 23.66 tons [27]. - **Product prices**: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable this week, and the prices of DMC and terminal products increased slightly [32][38]. - **Related product prices**: The prices of industrial silicon - related products remained stable, and the prices of silicone - related products increased slightly [32][38]. - **Intermediate fundamental data**: The operating rate of silicone intermediates increased slightly [43]. - **Aluminum alloy fundamental data**: The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased slightly, while that of recycled aluminum alloy remained unchanged [46]. - **Raw material prices**: The raw material prices remained stable [49]. Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Price trends**: This week, the spot price of polysilicon decreased slightly. The price of N - type re -投料 is 49.4 - 55 yuan/kg, the price of N - type dense material is 49 - 53 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon is 50 - 51 yuan/kg [53][56]. - **Downstream product prices**: The prices of some silicon wafers and batteries decreased slightly, while the component prices showed a mixed trend [62][66]. - **Component fundamental data**: Component enterprises are gradually raising component quotes. The production of some component enterprises has decreased this month, but the terminal demand provides certain support. The planned production of components in November is 46GW. The inventory of European photovoltaic components has increased to 35.4GW, and the inventory of domestic photovoltaic manufacturers' components is 31.2GW, which is at a moderately low level [79]. - **Battery fundamental data**: The export demand for batteries is good, and the inventory of professional battery manufacturers is 3.85GW, which is at a moderately low level. The battery production schedule has been adjusted down to 54GW in November [80]. - **Silicon wafer fundamental data**: This week, the operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises decreased, and the weekly output decreased to 13.45GW. The silicon wafer inventory is 17.52GW. The planned production of silicon wafers in November is 59GW, a decrease of 1GW compared with October [86]. - **Polysilicon fundamental data**: This week, the polysilicon output decreased slightly, and the factory inventory increased slightly to 25.9 tons. The planned production cuts of Tongwei Co., Ltd. in November will lead to a decrease of about 2 tons in the polysilicon output compared with October. The new production capacity of some enterprises is ramping up, and there is a certain production - cut plan for GCL Technology. Overall, the polysilicon output in November will decrease by about 2 tons compared with October [94].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) plays a crucial role in serving the real economy, with its delivery amount accounting for approximately 60% of the total market and delivery volume around 30% in 2024 [2] - SHFE has established a strong connection between the derivatives market and production, trade, and downstream consumption enterprises through its network of 135 storage companies and 277 storage points nationwide [2] - The event held in Chengdu aimed to enhance the service capabilities of futures companies to better support the real economy, featuring insights from various departments of SHFE and experts from futures institutions [1][2] Group 2 - Companies in the bulk commodity sector face significant profit volatility due to high raw material costs and price fluctuations, making effective use of futures and options essential for stable operations [4] - For instance, Sichuan Shenglin New Materials Technology Co., Ltd., a recycled aluminum alloy producer, has seen its profit margins drop to only 2% to 3% due to market pressures [5] - The company has utilized hedging strategies with the assistance of local futures companies to mitigate operational risks and stabilize profits [6] Group 3 - The growth of industrial clients at Wukuang Futures Chengdu Branch has been attributed to improved service capabilities, with the average daily equity scale increasing over tenfold since 2021 and a compound annual growth rate of over 200% in new accounts [8][9] - The existing industrial clients are primarily in the new energy and metals sectors, participating in trading of lithium carbonate, copper, and aluminum, which complements the company's national layout [10] - With the support of the futures market, Shenglin New Materials is seeking to expand its production capacity and enhance its sales channels through the application for SHFE delivery brands [10]

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint Supply -产区雨水偏多至月底,原料价格上涨,短时成本端支撑胶价,中长线供应放量预期仍在;需求 - 半钢胎企业排产稳定,全钢胎企业出货平稳但部分库存攀升;隔夜美联储对12月降息前景偏鹰,胶价短期承压,后续关注主产区旺产期原料产出及宏观变化,若原料上量顺利胶价有下行空间,若不畅预计胶价在15000 - 15500附近运行 [1] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: 云南国富手机胶等部分现货价格有涨跌,如云南国富手机胶涨0.34%,泰标混合胶跌1.32% [1] - **Inter - monthly Spread**: 9 - 1价差等有变动,如9 - 1价差涨3.45%,1 - 5价差跌12.50% [1] - **Fundamental Data**: 8月部分国家产量有变化,如泰国产量降0.43%,印度产量涨11.11%;轮胎开工率、产量、出口量及橡胶进口量等有不同表现,如8月国内轮胎产量涨9.10%,9月轮胎出口量降10.65% [1] - **Inventory Change**: 保税区库存等有增减,如保税区库存降1.20%,上期所厂库期货库存涨6.28% [1] Group 2: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint 本周供应端到港量大增,但下游订单不足,周边港口价格下行,市场承压;盘面价格处相对低位,内外盘价格倒挂形成进口成本支撑,限制下方空间,供需双弱格局下,原木期货盘面预计仍将维持偏弱震荡运行 [3] Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: 原木期货部分合约价格下跌,如主力LG2601跌1元/立方米;部分现货价格下降,如江苏4米中A辐射松价格降10元/方 [3] - **Cost**: 人民币兑美元汇率及进口理论成本变化小,分别涨0%和0% [3] - **Supply**: 港口发运量和离港船数增加,如新西兰→中日韩港口发运量涨6.00%,离港船数涨4.55% [3] - **Inventory**: 全国针叶原木总库存减少,日均出库量增加,如库存降2.74%,出库量增2% [3] Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint - **Soda Ash**: 宏观因素使商品盘面利空,前期反弹停止;周产高位,刚需过剩,厂家库存转移至中下游;中期下游产能无大幅增量,需求延续刚需格局,供需承压;阶段性利空基本出尽,建议前期空单止盈离场,短期观望,等待反弹空机会 [4] - **Glass**: 宏观因素使商品盘面利空,前期反弹停止;前几日玻璃现货产销转暖带动盘面反弹,中下游补库,期现商采购积极;深加工订单季节性好转但仍弱,地产周期底部竣工缩量,行业需产能出清;前期盘面下跌利空基本兑现,建议前期空单离场,关注现货捕捉短多机会 [4] Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: 玻璃部分合约价格下跌,如玻璃2505跌2.81%,玻璃2509跌2.21% [4] - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: 纯碱部分合约价格下跌,如纯碱2505跌1.71%,纯碱2509跌1.34% [4] - **Supply**: 纯碱开工率和周产量下降,光伏日熔量下降,如纯碱开工率降1.72%,周产量降1.71%,光伏日熔量降0.84% [4] - **Inventory**: 玻璃厂库和纯碱厂库库存增加,纯碱交割库库存减少,如玻璃厂库增4.72%,纯碱厂库增2.54%,纯碱交割库降3.18% [4] - **Real Estate Data**: 新开工面积等有变化,如新开工面积涨幅0.09%,施工面积降2.43% [4] Group 4: Industrial Silicone Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint 工业硅现货价格上涨,期货价格先涨后回落;周度供应端产量增加,需求端产量下降或致累库施压价格;华东套利窗口打开或带来套保机会;焦煤价格上涨或带动期价;工业硅供应增加使价格承压,但有成本支撑,预计低位震荡,价格波动区间8500 - 9500元/吨 [5] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: 华东通氧SI5530等现货价格上涨,如华东通氧SI5530涨1.07%,华东SI4210涨0.52% [5] - **Inter - monthly Spread**: 部分合约价差有变动,如2512 - 2601价差涨200.00%,2601 - 2602价差跌66.67% [5] - **Fundamental Data**: 全国和部分地区工业硅产量、开工率有变化,如全国工业硅产量涨9.10%,新疆开工率涨22.09%;有机硅DMC等产量有增减,如有机硅DMC产量降5.78%,再生铝合金产量涨7.48% [5] - **Inventory Change**: 新疆厂库等库存有增减,如新疆厂库库存降0.28%,云南厂库库存涨1.47% [5] Group 5: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint 多晶硅现货价格小幅下跌,期货价格震荡下跌;供应端11月产量有望下降,周度产量和硅片产量均有3 - 4%降幅;需求端硅片排产增加但下游采购减少,库存增加;多晶硅高位震荡,关注平台公司成立、产量控制及需求端订单情况;期货升水现货均价,继续大幅上涨需关注上游套保套利空间 [7] Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: N型复投料平均价等有涨跌,如N型复投料平均价跌0.10%,N型颗粒硅平均价持平 [7] - **Futures Price and Inter - monthly Spread**: 主力合约等价格和价差有变动,如主力合约跌0.07%,景月 - 连一价差跌16.06% [7] - **Fundamental Data**: 周度和月度多晶硅、硅片产量等有变化,如周度多晶硅产量降4.41%,月度硅片产量涨5.37% [7] - **Inventory Change**: 多晶硅和硅片库存增加,如多晶硅库存涨1.16%,硅片库存涨2.49% [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - For polysilicon: Hold long positions [1] - For industrial silicon: Wait for a full correction [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the polysilicon market, with progress in capacity integration and expected improvement in supply - demand, polysilicon futures are expected to rise and may hit a new high since listing. In the industrial silicon market, although the current inventory structure and production - demand situation lead to a weak price trend, the short - term downward space is limited, and long positions can be considered after a full correction [5][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Polysilicon - **Supply - demand analysis**: In October, silicon wafer production increased by 3GW to 62GW, corresponding to a polysilicon demand of about 124,000 tons. Polysilicon production was around 130,000 tons, with a slight inventory build - up. The current total inventory is about 500,000 tons. In November, southwest polysilicon capacity may significantly reduce production, and silicon wafer production is likely to stay above 50GW [5] - **Trading logic**: The main short - term negative factor is the non - transferable warehouse receipts of the November contract, but their impact on prices is limited. High - inventory manufacturers have no incentive to lower prices, so the spot price is expected to be stable with an upward bias in the short and medium term [5] - **Operation strategy**: Hold long positions for single - side trading; conduct reverse arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts; sell put options and buy call options [6] Industrial Silicon - **Supply - demand analysis**: This week, DMC weekly production decreased by 2.73% to 46,300 tons, polysilicon weekly production decreased by 1.28% to 31,500 tons. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 0.2 percentage points to 58.4%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 58.6%. Industrial silicon weekly production increased by 2.09% to 97,500 tons. The total number of open furnaces remained at 318. Industrial silicon social inventory increased by 0.7 million tons to 562,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory increased by 0.57 million tons to 170,600 tons, and downstream raw material inventory decreased by 0.2 million tons to 23,900 tons [7][27][28] - **Trading logic**: The current inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle", prone to positive feedback between futures and spot. The resumption of production by leading manufacturers and the expected decline in polysilicon production in November have led to weak futures prices. However, the acceptance of high - priced industrial silicon by downstream has increased, and the actual transaction price of spot has not significantly decreased. The short - term downward space is limited [7] - **Operation strategy**: Close short positions for single - side trading; no options or arbitrage strategies are recommended for now [8] Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Market trend**: This week, industrial silicon futures fluctuated weakly, with the main contract closing at 8,430 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price decreased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton [11] - **Downstream demand**: DMC production decreased by 2.73%, polysilicon production decreased by 1.28%, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 0.2 percentage points, and that of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 0.3 percentage points [14] - **Production**: Industrial silicon production increased by 2.09% to 97,500 tons this week. Yunnan, Sichuan, and Gansu reduced the number of open furnaces, while Xinjiang's leading manufacturers increased the number of open furnaces, and there are rumors of further increases [27] - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon social inventory increased by 0.7 million tons to 562,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory increased by 0.57 million tons to 170,600 tons, and downstream raw material inventory decreased by 0.2 million tons to 23,900 tons [28] - **Related product prices**: Industrial silicon spot prices weakened this week, while DMC and terminal product prices of organic silicon increased slightly [33][38] - **Raw material prices**: The price of Xinjiang refined coal decreased [50] Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Price trend**: This week, polysilicon spot prices increased. N - type polysilicon prices were in the range of 49.5 - 55 yuan/kg, and some low - price ranges of N - type re -投料 increased by 500 yuan/ton. Silicon wafer and battery prices remained stable, while some component prices increased [56][63][72] - **Component fundamentals**: Domestic component orders are average, with a neutral to high inventory. Component production in October decreased slightly to 46GW [81] - **Battery fundamentals**: Battery export demand is good, with a neutral inventory of 6.63GW. Due to the decrease in component production in October, battery production increased to 56GW [88] - **Silicon wafer fundamentals**: This week, the operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises increased, with a weekly production of 14.35GW. Silicon wafer inventory is 17.31GW, and the production in October was 62GW, an increase of 3GW compared to August [93] - **Polysilicon fundamentals**: This week, polysilicon production slightly decreased, and factory inventory increased slightly to 253,000 tons. The expected production in October is about 130,000 tons [98]

Core Insights - The aluminum industry in China is undergoing a significant transformation, moving from scale leadership to global competitiveness, with a focus on high-end applications and sustainable practices [2][4][13] Industry Overview - Binzhou, known as the "Aluminum Valley" of China, has established a complete industrial cluster from alumina, electrolytic aluminum to high-precision processed materials, with alumina capacity accounting for 25% and electrolytic aluminum capacity for 16% of the national total [4] - The industry is shifting from expansion in scale to quality and efficiency, and from single processing to full-chain collaboration, responding to global industrial upgrades and green low-carbon transitions [4][9] Innovations and Developments - The upcoming Binzhou Aluminum Expo will showcase innovations in the recycling system for aluminum, including efficient waste aluminum recovery and low-energy production processes, aligning with "green dual carbon" goals [9] - Advanced products such as aerospace-grade aluminum alloys, integrated die-casting aluminum components for electric vehicles, and precision aluminum foils for high-end electronics will be featured, highlighting the transition from basic processing to deep manufacturing [9][10] Collaborative Platform - The expo will serve as a connector for collaborative innovation across the industry chain, gathering over 300 leading enterprises and research institutions, facilitating connections from material research to application implementation [10][13] - The event represents a platform for showcasing the integration of regional clusters with global markets, emphasizing the industry's commitment to innovation and transformation [10][13] Future Outlook - The Binzhou Aluminum Expo is positioned as a window for the Chinese aluminum industry to convey its "innovative strength" and "transformation determination" to the world, marking a shift from quantity accumulation to quality leap [13][15]