点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 25H1，新项目与存量项目表现有所分化：1）上海项目实现扭亏为盈，上半年实现营业收入6582万元，净 利润366万元，公司力争全年实现盈利。2）西安项目客流实现较好增长，客单价保持稳定。3）广东（佛 山）项目在24年开业当年即盈利的高基数上，25H1收入同比回落；景区万人剧院正改造升级，长期增长潜 力较大。4）成熟项目中，杭州项目经营较稳健，25H1营收2.92亿元，同比-0.48%，五一期间《宋城千古 情》单日最高演出22场，验证其强大市场吸引力。丽江、三亚项目受当地市场环境影响，营收有所下滑。 桂林、九寨项目则延续增长势头。 营收规模负效应，叠加营销投入加大，净利率承压 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 公司发布25年半年度报告，25H1实现营业 ...

盈利预测、估值与评级：考虑经济环境影响，以及存量项目营收增长承压，我们下调25-27 年归母净利 润预测分别至10.53/11.76/13.09 亿元（较此前预测分别分别下调7.6%/11.2%/8.8%），折合25-27 年EPS 分别为0.40/0.45/0.50 元，当前股价对应PE 分别为22/20/18 倍。我们看好公司未来的长期发展前景，维 持"买入"评级。 风险提示：行业复苏不及预期，新项目运营不及预期。 营收规模负效应，叠加营销投入加大，净利率承压。25H1 公司轻资产业务确认收入下降，对成本费用 摊薄产生不利影响。25H1 公司毛利率为65.72%，同比-3.47pcts，期间费用率为15.22%，同比 +3.95pcts。其中，销售费用率/管理费用率分别为7.29%/6.58%，分别同比+2.79/-0.86pcts。销售费用率增 长主要系公司为应对市场竞争，主动加大营销投入，广告宣传和技术服务费同比增加。此外，新增演职 人员导致用工成本增加。综上，25H1 公司归母净利润率为37.01%，同比-9.74pcts。 轻资产拓展再结硕果，持续聚焦主业发展。25H1 公司新签青岛"丝路千古情" ...

Group 1 - The core management teams of several major real estate companies, including Vanke and Swire Properties, are undergoing significant changes, with at least 53 personnel changes reported in the commercial real estate sector in the first half of 2025 [1][3] - Nearly 10 companies, including Vanke Group, China Resources Land, and Longfor Group, have initiated organizational transformations, focusing on strategic adjustments and streamlining operations [3][4] - Leading commercial management companies in mainland China are forming composite teams that excel in both commercial operations and asset management, achieving breakthroughs in organizational efficiency and product iteration [4] Group 2 - Vanke's commercial segment is transitioning from a "commercial operator" to a "market-oriented asset management platform," with significant organizational restructuring underway [5] - Joy City Holdings has upgraded its commercial management center to a commercial division, emphasizing refined operations and capital loop capabilities to enhance asset value [7] - Hong Kong-based companies are increasingly integrating with the mainland market, actively recruiting talent and adjusting their business strategies to focus on high-end commercial properties [8][9] Group 3 - Swire Properties is enhancing its retail business in mainland China by promoting local executives to key positions, reflecting the importance of the mainland market to its core business [9][11] - Hong Kong Land is accelerating its strategic transformation by hiring several key talents to strengthen its operations in the mainland commercial real estate sector [12][14] - The new strategy aims to recover up to $10 billion by 2035, focusing on high-end commercial assets and enhancing the company's long-term sustainable growth [14] Group 4 - Major players in the commercial real estate sector are prioritizing talent acquisition and development, recognizing that skilled personnel are crucial for driving business forward [15][16] - China Resources Vientiane Life has launched a talent recruitment plan aimed at attracting senior management in commercial and property management sectors, with a comprehensive onboarding program [16][18] - A trend of experienced executives starting their own ventures is emerging, with notable figures like Ling Changfeng and Tian Weilong establishing new companies focused on asset management and urban renewal [19][21] Group 5 - Ling Changfeng's new company, Ningpu Development, is focusing on light asset management and has secured partnerships for significant urban renewal projects [21] - Tian Weilong's Jinlou Group is targeting urban renewal and community commercial projects, with a strategic focus on asset securitization [22][24] - The competitive landscape is intensifying as top executives transition to new roles, with a notable increase in personnel changes within the commercial real estate sector [24][25]

Core Insights - Hang Lung Properties has signed a 20-year lease with Baida Group for the B and C halls of Wulin Yintai, with an annual rent of approximately 150 million yuan, totaling around 3.3 billion yuan over the lease term [1] - This marks Hang Lung's first attempt to expand in mainland China through a light-asset model, moving away from its traditional heavy-asset approach of land acquisition, development, and operation [1][4] - The decision to lease instead of buy may be influenced by the challenges faced with the adjacent Baijingfang Phase II land, which has not progressed as expected [4] Project Overview - The Wulin Yintai complex has been a significant player in the beauty retail sector in Zhejiang and nationally, with Hang Lung's acquisition aimed at creating a large integrated complex of approximately 300,000 square meters, connecting with the West Lake 66 project [5][7] - West Lake 66 is positioned as a high-end commercial landmark in East China, comparable to Tokyo's Ginza, and is currently the only project under construction among Hang Lung's 11 projects in mainland China [4][7] Market Context - The Wulin business district is recognized as Zhejiang's first billion-yuan commercial area and is a central hub in Hangzhou, with the potential for West Lake 66 to challenge established players like Hangzhou Tower [7][10] - Despite the challenges faced by Hang Lung's existing high-end malls in mainland China, the company is betting on West Lake 66 to reverse its performance outside Shanghai, making Hangzhou a critical battleground for its future success [8][9] Competitive Landscape - The commercial landscape in Hangzhou is currently facing delays with several high-end projects, which may provide an opportunity for West Lake 66 to establish itself as a leading destination [9][10] - The addition of West Lake 66 to the Wulin business district could revitalize the area and enhance its competitive positioning against other luxury retail developments [10]