Core Viewpoint - Zegna Group has completed a second round of investment in the Canadian high-end trail running shoe brand Norda, indicating a strategic shift towards expanding its investment portfolio beyond traditional menswear brands [1][3] Group 1: Investment and Strategic Moves - Zegna's investment in Norda aligns with its goal to connect with a new generation of consumers, reflecting a structural shift in global fashion from formal wear to activewear [4] - The partnership with Norda represents a potential beginning for Zegna to become a multi-brand lifestyle giant, as it seeks to prove its growth prospects to the secondary market post-IPO [4] - Zegna's interest in Norda began shortly after the launch of Norda's first shoe in 2021, showcasing a long-term vision for collaboration [3] Group 2: Brand and Market Positioning - Norda, founded in 2020, focuses on lightweight design and material innovation, appealing to both professional trail runners and urban consumers with its minimalist aesthetic [1][3] - The brand's rapid growth, reportedly doubling in size annually, necessitates significant capital investment to sustain its development [4] - Norda's pricing positions it as one of the most expensive running shoe brands, with products typically priced around 2000 yuan, and collaborative products with Zegna reaching up to 6600 yuan [7] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Norda's emergence mirrors that of On, a successful running shoe brand that transitioned from a niche market to a broader lifestyle symbol, indicating potential for similar growth [6][9] - The brand has secured a strategic partnership with top sports retailer Tmall, which will manage its operations in China, enhancing its market presence [6] - Despite its potential, Norda faces stiff competition from established brands like On, HOKA, and Salomon in the rapidly growing trail running market, necessitating continuous innovation and market balance [9]

Core Viewpoint - Lululemon's third-quarter revenue and earnings per share exceeded expectations, leading to an 11% increase in stock price after the announcement. The company also raised its full-year revenue guidance for 2025, despite facing increased competition and the resignation of CEO Calvin McDonald on January 31 [1][3][14]. Financial Performance - **Revenue**: Lululemon reported a 7% increase in net revenue for the third quarter, reaching $2.6 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $2.48 billion. Comparable sales grew by 1%, with a 2% increase when adjusted for constant currency [4]. - **Gross Profit**: The gross profit for the third quarter rose by 2% to $1.4 billion, while the gross margin decreased by 290 basis points to 55.6% [5]. - **Operating Profit**: Operating profit fell by 11% to $435.9 million, with the operating margin declining by 350 basis points to 17.0% [6]. - **Earnings Per Share**: The earnings per share for the third quarter was $2.59, exceeding analyst expectations of $2.25, compared to $2.87 in the third quarter of 2024 [7]. Store and Inventory Data - **Store Count**: The company added 12 new stores in the third quarter, bringing the total to 796 stores [8]. - **Inventory**: Inventory at the end of the third quarter increased by 11% year-over-year to $2 billion, compared to $1.8 billion at the end of the third quarter of 2024 [8]. Regional Performance - **Americas**: Net revenue in the Americas declined by 2%, with comparable sales down by 5% [8]. - **International**: The international segment saw a 33% increase in net revenue, with comparable sales up by 18% [8]. Future Guidance - **Fourth Quarter 2025**: The company expects net revenue to be between $3.5 billion and $3.585 billion, a year-over-year decline of 3% to 1%, which is below analyst expectations of $3.59 billion [9]. - **Full Year 2025**: Lululemon anticipates full-year net revenue between $10.962 billion and $11.047 billion, aligning with market expectations and representing a 4% year-over-year growth [11]. The expected earnings per share for the full year is between $12.92 and $13.02, slightly above analyst expectations of $13 [12]. Leadership Changes - CEO Calvin McDonald will resign on January 31, with the board seeking a successor. Marti Morfitt will take on additional responsibilities as executive chairman during the transition [12][13]. McDonald will remain as a senior advisor until March 31 [13]. Market Challenges - Lululemon faces increasing pressure from competition and market challenges, including tariff impacts and a decline in U.S. consumer spending. The company is working to enhance product appeal and accelerate product development cycles [16][20]. The CEO's departure follows pressure from founder Chip Wilson, who has called for a renewed focus on product quality [18][19].

Core Insights - The company reported a 1.0% year-on-year decline in revenue for the first nine months of 2025, totaling $6,017.4 million, with manufacturing revenue increasing by 2.3% [1] - The average selling price of footwear rose by 3.2% to $20.88 per pair, despite a 1.3% decrease in manufacturing gross margin due to uneven capacity utilization and rising labor costs [1] - The revenue contribution from Baosheng decreased by 7.9% year-on-year to $1,785.7 million, reflecting a decline in both USD and RMB terms [1] Revenue and Profitability - The company experienced a seasonal improvement in profitability in Q3 2025, driven by a robust order mix that offset the decline in shipment volume [2] - The global consumer market showed steady growth, particularly in the US back-to-school sales, although new tariff policies and geopolitical tensions created uncertainties [2] - The company maintained a demand-driven production strategy to enhance production scheduling flexibility, which contributed to improved profit margins in Q3 [2] Long-term Outlook - The company remains optimistic about the long-term prospects of the sports industry, driven by increasing awareness of sports and health, especially with upcoming international sporting events [2] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of $8.2 billion, $8.6 billion, and $9.1 billion, along with net profits of $370 million, $410 million, and $460 million respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - Lululemon has faced significant challenges in 2025, with disappointing earnings reports indicating a slowdown in revenue growth and a decline in net profit, leading to a sharp drop in stock price and negative analyst ratings [1][3][22] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Lululemon's revenue grew only 6.9% year-over-year to $4.896 billion, while inventory increased by 19.5% [1] - The company's net profit fell by 4% to $685 million, marking the first decline since 2021 [1] - Same-store sales in the Americas, which account for over 70% of revenue, have been declining for several consecutive quarters, and the growth rate in the Chinese market dropped from 26% to 7% year-over-year [1] Market Position and Analyst Sentiment - Analysts from major firms like Barclays, Bank of America, and HSBC have downgraded their ratings or target prices for Lululemon, with Randal Konik highlighting signs of brand decline [3][4] - Lululemon's stock has halved in value this year, making it the worst performer in the S&P 500 [1] Brand Strategy and Competition - Lululemon's attempts to diversify its product offerings, including men's clothing and footwear, have diluted its appeal to its core demographic [3][4] - The brand is compared to Victoria's Secret, which also faced decline after failing to adapt to changing consumer preferences [3][4] Consumer Trends - The shift in consumer preferences towards more relaxed and comfortable clothing has impacted Lululemon's core product, the yoga pant, which has seen a decline in popularity [15][16] - Reports indicate that the market share of leggings has decreased from 47% to 39% in the first quarter of 2023, while wide-leg pants have seen a 40% increase in search interest [15][16] Emerging Competitors - New brands like Vuori and Alo Yoga are gaining traction, with Vuori projected to reach $1 billion in sales this year and Alo Yoga's revenue expected to grow significantly due to effective visual marketing strategies [9][12][14] - Both competitors are strategically opening stores near Lululemon locations, capturing market share from the established brand [14] Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, Lululemon remains a significant player in the market, being the third global sports brand to reach a valuation of $10 billion [21][22] - The company acknowledges the need for innovation and adaptation to maintain its market position amidst evolving consumer preferences and competitive pressures [22]

今年以来，lululemon 股价已跌去四成。 文丨朱丽琨 制图丨黄帧昕 编辑丨钱杨 黄俊杰 6 月 27 日早晨，三里屯的路人好奇地驻足注视着上百位瑜伽爱好者的一举一动。他们坐在各自的瑜伽垫上，聆听着一位身姿轻盈的 "大 使"（Ambassador）给出的口令和序列，延伸他们的肢体，控制他们的呼吸。他们面朝 lululemon 最新的三里屯门店，简洁的白色流线型格栅右上方 悬挂着这个品牌鲜亮的 logo 标识。之前多年，这个三层独栋的位置属于快时尚巨头 H&M。 在此之前，lululemon 在三里屯太古里北区下沉广场靠近电梯的位置待了 7 年半，如今它挪到了三里屯太古里南区沿街路口，与阿迪达斯的独栋相 邻。 lululemon 起步靠的是一款黑色的女士瑜伽裤。创始人奇普·威尔逊（Chip Wilson）第一本书的名字就叫《Little Black Stretchy Pants》（小黑弹力 裤）。如今，这个品牌已经不再那么强调瑜伽、不再那么强调女性。中国区的新任品牌大使是 F1 车手和电影里扮演拳击手、瘦了 100 斤的明星。 lululemon 现在也卖拖鞋、头绳、跑鞋和男士休闲衬衫——它看着更像一个综合 ...