1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures, with the overall market showing a mixed pattern of "near - strong and far - weak" in the soybean market and complex driving factors for each variety. [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Short - term and intraday view is "oscillating weakly", medium - term view is "oscillating". The overall reference view is "oscillating weakly". [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The soybean market shows a "near - strong and far - weak" pattern due to the game between tight spot and weak expectations. US soybeans are in low - level oscillation, and Argentina's tariff reduction squeezes the US soybean market share. With the expected high - yield in Brazil, the support for far - month import costs declines. In the domestic market, the oil mill operating rate drops, and soybean auctions have high - price transactions, indicating short - term replenishment demand. In December, the arrival of imported soybeans may reach 9.5 million tons, and the state reserve continues to sell. The 05 contract corresponds to the period of concentrated soybean listing in South America, and the basis has weakened in advance. [5] 3.2 Soybean Oil (Y) - **View**: Short - term, intraday, and reference view is "oscillating strongly", medium - term view is "oscillating". [6][7] - **Core Logic**: The US soybean oil price needs to pay attention to the final implementation of the US biofuel policy, the implementation progress of Brazil's blending plan, and the evolution of the global soybean - palm oil price difference. The domestic soybean oil is still in the "weak reality" stage, and the de - stocking process of high inventory determines the price center. The contradiction between varieties is intensifying, and the domestic - foreign price difference of soybean oil is inverted. The wide - range oscillation range of the short - term soybean oil market is difficult to break. [7] 3.3 Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Short - term, intraday, and reference view is "oscillating strongly", medium - term view is "oscillating". [6][8] - **Core Logic**: The palm oil market shows a pulse - type rebound rather than a trend reversal, driven by short - covering and technical repair. However, palm oil has limited follow - up strength. The export decline in Malaysia in early December has widened, and production has increased month - on - month. The inventory pressure still affects the price. In the future, attention should be paid to Indonesia's biodiesel policy and the procurement rhythm of major importing countries. [8]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 生猪 豆类 | 日报 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 12 月 11 日 豆类日报 近强远弱持续 豆类油脂冲高回落 核心观点 12 月 11 日，豆类油脂期价冲高回落。豆一期价涨幅超 1%，期价反弹至多 条均线上方，伴随增仓 7000 手；豆二期价涨幅超 2%,期价延续前一日反弹趋 势，资金变化不大；豆粕期价低位震荡，期价承压于 5 日均线压力，资金继续 移仓远月 05，资金小幅流出；菜粕期价冲高回落，期价承压于 5 日均线压力， 形态整体偏弱，伴随增仓 1.1 万手。油脂期价冲高回落，豆油期价承压于 10 日均线压力，伴随增仓 2.5 万手；棕榈油期价震荡偏强，期价承压于 30 日均 线压力，最终收于 5 日均线下方，伴随增仓 2.4 万手；菜籽油期价涨幅超 1.5%， 期价承压于 30 日均线压力，资金变化不大。 近期豆类市场延续 "近强远弱"分化格局。核心驱动在于紧现货与弱预 期之间的博弈。美豆延续低位震荡，出口销售报告成关键变量，但阿根廷关税 下调挤压美豆市场份额，叠加南美巴西丰产预期，远月进口成本支撑下移。国 内市场呈现结构性矛盾： ...