Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The US soybean futures price fluctuates narrowly, and the market still focuses on the actual implementation of US soybean exports to China. The domestic double - meal market generally maintains a weak and volatile trend. Overseas, although Chinese buyers have resumed purchasing US soybeans, they will continue to buy Brazilian soybeans. Domestically, the spot market shows a stalemate situation between supply and demand, and the spot price shows a certain resistance to decline. [40] - The rapeseed meal market has weak trading, and the core focus is on the arrival and customs clearance process of Australian rapeseed, which directly affects the short - term supply expectation. [40] - In the short term, the market is in a supply - demand stalemate. Soybean meal focuses on the actual implementation of US soybean exports to China, while rapeseed meal focuses on the arrival and customs clearance of Australian rapeseed. In the long - term, changes in trade relations are still the key driving force for the supply side of double - meal. [40][41] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Main Feed and Aquaculture Futures and Spot Price Trends - **Soybean Meal**: The closing price of the futures main contract M2601 on December 4, 2025, was 3,040, a weekly decrease of 15 or 0.49%. The spot price was 3,020, a weekly increase of 10 or 0.33%. [4] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The closing price of the futures main contract RM601 was 2,422, a weekly decrease of 47 or 1.90%. The spot price was 2,500, a weekly decrease of 50 or 1.96%. [4] - **Corn**: The closing price of the futures main contract C2601 was 2,287, a weekly increase of 44 or 1.96%. The spot price was 2,295, a weekly increase of 20 or 0.88%. [4] - **Pig**: The closing price of the futures main contract LH2601 was 11,385, a weekly decrease of 200 or 1.73%. The spot price was 11.23, a weekly decrease of 0.04 or 0.35%. [4] - **Egg**: The closing price of the futures main contract JD2601 was 3,138, a weekly decrease of 144 or 4.39%. The spot price was 3.06, a weekly increase of 0.07 or 2.34%. [4] Fundamental Analysis Cost Side - **Weather**: In the next 6 - 10 days, the temperatures in the main soybean - producing states in the US are all lower than normal, and the rainfall is mostly higher. [9] - **US Soybeans**: As of the week ending October 30, the net increase in US soybean export sales in the current market year was 1.2485 million tons, a 14% decrease from the previous week and a 19% increase from the average of the previous four weeks, with net sales to the Chinese mainland of 232,000 tons. [9] - **Brazil**: On December 4, Brazilian government data showed that Brazil's soybean exports in November increased by 64% year - on - year to 4.2 million tons. [9] - **Argentina**: The estimated soybean output in Argentina in the 2025/26 season is 46.9 million tons, the same as the previous forecast, but the early - season sowing is continuously delayed, and the soil moisture in the Pampas planting belt is declining. [9] Supply - **Imports**: In October, China imported no soybeans from the US for the second consecutive month, but the total soybean imports reached a record high of 9.48 million tons. Imports from Brazil were 7.12 million tons, a 28.8% year - on - year increase, accounting for 75.1% of the total imports, and imports from Argentina were 1.57 million tons, a 15.4% year - on - year increase. Since the beginning of 2025, China's soybean imports from the US have reached 16.82 million tons, a 11.5% year - on - year increase. [9] Demand - **Pressing**: Recently, the soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills is relatively high, and the soybean meal inventory continues to accumulate, approaching the high level of 1.2 million tons. It is expected that the soybean arrival volume in December will decrease slightly, with a total monthly pressing volume of about 8.6 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills at the end of the month will be around 0.9 million tons. [9] - **Transaction**: On December 4, the soybean meal transaction of domestic mainstream oil mills decreased. The trading volume was 89,800 tons, a decrease of 75,900 tons from the previous day. The spot trading volume was 55,800 tons, a decrease of 17,900 tons from the previous day, and the basis trading volume was 34,000 tons, a decrease of 58,000 tons from the previous day. The average transaction price was 3,092.74 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.76 yuan/ton from the previous day. [9] Inventory - **Oil Mill Inventory**: In the 48th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills increased to 7.3396 million tons, a 2.65% increase from the previous week and a 47.57% increase year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory increased to 1.2032 million tons, a 4.49% increase from the previous week and a 44.18% increase year - on - year. The unexecuted contracts decreased to 3.881 million tons, a 15.54% decrease from the previous week and a 5.28% decrease year - on - year. [9] Supply - Side Import - As of December 4, the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans was $476.00 per ton, a decrease of $14 per ton from the previous week, and the CNF import price of US West Coast soybeans was $494.00 per ton, a decrease of $2 per ton from the previous week. [17] Supply - Side Pressing - As of the week of December 4, the soybean pressing profit was - 58.60 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.90 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of the week of November 28, the weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.2568 million tons, a decrease of 68,600 tons from the previous week, and the operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 57%, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous week. [25] Inventory - Side - As of December 4, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 8.3868 million tons, a decrease of 4,400 tons from the previous week, and it was at an extremely high level in the past five years seasonally. As of November 28, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 1.0734 million tons, an increase of 16,900 tons from the previous week, and it was at an extremely high level in the past five years seasonally. [29] Demand - Side - As of November 28, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal of domestic mainstream oil mills was 100,800 tons, a decrease of 131,900 tons from the previous week, and it was at a moderately high level in the past five years seasonally. [33] Rapeseed Meal Supply - Side - The content provides historical data on rapeseed import volume, rapeseed meal production, and expected rapeseed arrival volume in China, but no new summary data is given. [36] Rapeseed Meal Demand and Inventory - Side - The content provides historical data on rapeseed meal inventory, supply, demand,提货 volume, apparent consumption, and trading volume in China, but no new summary data is given. [38] Strategy Recommendation - **Short - Term**: The market is in a supply - demand stalemate. Soybean meal focuses on the actual implementation of US soybean exports to China, and rapeseed meal focuses on the arrival and customs clearance of Australian rapeseed. [40] - **Long - Term**: Changes in trade relations are still the key driving force for the supply side of double - meal. [41] Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning - The focus is on the weather in the producing areas, US soybean exports to China, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans. [42]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA供需 report was unexpectedly bullish, causing US soybeans to return above 1000 cents. Under the influence of anti - dumping measures on domestic rapeseed, the performance of double - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) was differentiated, with rapeseed meal showing more volatility and soybean meal remaining relatively stable due to import cost support [35]. - Currently, the domestic soybean supply is abundant, and oil mills have high soybean meal inventories. Downstream feed enterprises maintain high - inventory rolling, resulting in weak short - term follow - up buying willingness and sluggish soybean meal transactions at oil mills [35]. - In the short term, influenced by the cooling sentiment in the rapeseed sector and news of customs inspections in some areas, short - term trading is recommended for soybean meal; rapeseed meal is more volatile, and short - term trading should be accompanied by risk prevention [36]. - In the long term, the global soybean supply is ample, limiting the sustained upward momentum of the soybean sector [37]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Prices**: As of August 14, the closing price of the main soybean meal futures contract (M2601) was 3157 yuan/ton, up 2.77% from August 6; the main rapeseed meal futures contract (RM509) was 2686 yuan/ton, down 2.15%; the main corn futures contract (C2511) was 2281 yuan/ton, up 0.97%; the main live hog futures contract (LH2511) was 13900 yuan/ton, down 0.79%; the main egg futures contract (JD2510) was 3189 yuan/ton, down 5.60% [4]. - **Spot Prices**: On August 14, the spot price of 43% protein soybean meal in Shandong was 3000 yuan/ton, up 3.81% from August 6; the average price of rapeseed meal in China was 2600 yuan/ton, down 2.26%; the aggregated price of second - grade corn with 14.5% moisture in Bayuquan Port was 2310 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average daily slaughter price of commercial hogs in Henan was 13.76 yuan/kg, down 1.43%; the average price of eggs in the main producing areas in China was 3.07 yuan/jin, up 5.50% [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Cost - end**: In the next 6 - 10 days, most areas in the main US soybean - producing states will have higher - than - normal temperatures, and half of the areas will have precipitation close to the median. The USDA's August report showed that although the 2025/26 US soybean yield per acre increased from 52.5 bushels to 53.6 bushels, the sown area decreased from 83.4 million acres to 80.9 million acres, and the production decreased from 4.335 billion bushels to 4.292 billion bushels, reaching the sixth - highest in history. The USDA lowered the 2025/26 US soybean ending inventory to 290 million bushels, lower than the market expectation of 351 million bushels and the July forecast of 310 million bushels, hitting a three - year low. In July, Brazil's soybean exports reached 12.25 million tons, a record high for the same period. From January to July, Brazil's cumulative exports of oil crops reached 77.2 million tons, the first time to exceed this level in the same period of previous years. As of August 6, Argentine farmers had pre - sold 28.83 million tons of 2024/25 soybeans, 870,000 tons more than a week ago [7]. - **Supply - Import**: Affected by Brazil's strong exports and concerns about supply due to Sino - US trade uncertainties, China's soybean imports in July reached a record high for the same period for the third consecutive month. In July, China imported 11.67 million tons of soybeans, a 4.8% decrease from June but still the highest for the same period in history, an 18.5% increase from the same period in 2024. The total soybean imports in the first seven months of this year reached 61.04 million tons, a 4.6% year - on - year increase. The market expects soybean imports in August and September to remain above 10 million tons, with most coming from Brazil. However, China has not booked any US soybean cargoes for the fourth quarter, raising concerns about a potential supply shortage [7]. - **Demand - Pressing and Transaction**: As of the week ending August 8, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.1775 million tons, with an operating rate of 61.21%. On August 14, the total soybean meal transaction volume was 73,700 tons, 2900 tons less than the previous day, and the spot transaction volume was 28,700 tons. The weekly average showed that the total soybean meal transaction volume was 511,980 tons, and the spot transaction volume was 70,920 tons. Currently, the domestic soybean supply is abundant, oil mills have high soybean meal inventories, and downstream feed enterprises maintain high - inventory rolling, resulting in weak short - term follow - up buying willingness and sluggish soybean meal transactions at oil mills [7]. - **Inventory**: As of the week ending August 8, the soybean inventory was 7.1056 million tons, an 8.38% increase from the previous week and a 0.59% decrease from the same period in 2024; the soybean meal inventory was 1.0035 million tons, a 3.66% decrease from the previous week and a 31.74% decrease from the same period in 2024 [7]. 3.3 Supply - end - **Import**: As of August 14, the CNF price of Brazilian soybeans was 497.00 US dollars/ton, up 12 US dollars/ton from the previous week; the CNF price of US West Coast soybeans was 454.00 US dollars/ton, up 17 US dollars/ton from the previous week [11][12]. - **Pressing**: As of the week ending August 14, the soybean crushing profit was 209.40 yuan/ton, up 56.50 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of the week ending August 8, the domestic oil mill's weekly soybean crushing volume was 2.359 million tons, up 129,500 tons from the previous week. As of August 8, the domestic soybean oil mill operating rate was 60%, an increase of 3 percentage points from the previous week [15]. 3.4 Inventory - end - As of August 14, the imported soybean port inventory was 6.7355 million tons, a decrease of 108,000 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean port inventory is at a near - five - year low. As of August 1, the oil mill's soybean meal inventory was 960,900 tons, a decrease of 16,700 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the domestic mainstream oil mill's soybean meal inventory is at a near - five - year medium level [18]. 3.5 Demand - end - As of August 8, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal at domestic mainstream oil mills was 500,700 tons, an increase of 222,400 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, it is at a near - five - year high level [22]. 3.6 Pig - end No specific content was provided for analysis in the given text. 3.7 Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Due to the cooling sentiment in the rapeseed sector and news of customs inspections in some areas, short - term trading is recommended for soybean meal; rapeseed meal is more volatile, and short - term trading should be accompanied by risk prevention [36]. - Long - term: The global soybean supply is ample, limiting the sustained upward momentum of the soybean sector [37]. 3.8 Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning The focus includes the weather in production areas, trade relations, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term due to a mix of bullish and bearish factors, including the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations, US soybean planting weather, and the arrival of imported soybeans [10][11][13]. - The soybean market will also be in an oscillatory pattern, influenced by Sino - US trade relations, South American soybean harvests, and domestic supply - demand dynamics [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Hints Not explicitly presented in the provided content. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations reached a short - term agreement, which is positive for US soybeans. However, good planting weather in the US led to a short - term pull - back in the US soybean market. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean planting, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May. After May Day, domestic soybean inventories rebounded from a low level, while soybean meal inventories remained low. The soybean and soybean meal markets returned to an oscillatory pattern due to the outcome of the Sino - US tariff war [13]. - Reduced profits in domestic pig farming led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal weakened after May Day, but tight supply supported post - holiday price expectations. With reduced pressure from the Sino - US tariff war, soybean meal entered a short - term oscillatory and weakening pattern [13]. - Low domestic soybean meal inventories supported short - term price expectations. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff war meant that soybean meal would remain volatile in the short - term, awaiting clarification of South American soybean yields and further developments in the Sino - US tariff war [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors For Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low domestic soybean meal inventories at oil mills, and uncertainties in the US soybean - producing area weather [14]. - Bearish factors: high arrival volume of imported soybeans in May, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [14]. For Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support from imported soybeans and expected increased demand for domestic soybeans [15]. - Bearish factors: continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest, increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans by China, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season [15]. 4. Fundamental Data Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides data from 2015 - 2024, showing trends in harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio, indicating an overall upward trend in production and ending inventory over the years [22]. USDA's Monthly Supply - Demand Reports in the Past Six Months Data from November 2024 to May 2025 shows changes in harvest area, yield, production, ending inventory, old - crop exports, crushing volume, and soybean production in Brazil and Argentina [23]. US Soybean Planting and Growth Progress in 2024 It details the sowing, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, leaf - falling, and harvesting progress from April to November, as well as the comparison of the excellent - good rate with the previous year and the five - year average [24][25][26]. Brazil's Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress in 2024/25 It shows the planting rate from November 2024 to January 2025 and the harvesting rate from February to May 2025, along with comparisons with the previous year and the five - year average [27][28]. Argentina's Soybean Planting Progress in 2024/25 The planting rate from November 2024 to January 2025 is presented, with comparisons to the previous year and the five - year average [29]. 5. Position Data Not explicitly presented in the provided content. 6. Trading Strategies For Soybean Meal - Futures: US soybeans are expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark in the short - term, and soybean meal will be oscillatory and weakening. For the M2509 contract, short - term trading within the range of 2800 - 3000 is recommended [17]. - Option strategy: Sell out - of - the - money put options [19]. For Soybeans (Bean 1) - Futures: The A2507 contract is expected to oscillate between 4100 and 4300, and short - term trading within this range is advised [20]. - Option strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [20]. 7. Next Week's Focus Points - Most important: US soybean - producing area planting weather, Sino - US trade relations and the follow - up of the tariff war, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [76][77]. - Second - most important: Domestic soybean meal demand, domestic oil mill inventories, and downstream procurement [78]. - Less important: Macroeconomic factors, the situations in the Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestine conflicts [78].