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饲料养殖周度报告-20250815
Xin Ji Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 11:55
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA供需 report was unexpectedly bullish, causing US soybeans to return above 1000 cents. Under the influence of anti - dumping measures on domestic rapeseed, the performance of double - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) was differentiated, with rapeseed meal showing more volatility and soybean meal remaining relatively stable due to import cost support [35]. - Currently, the domestic soybean supply is abundant, and oil mills have high soybean meal inventories. Downstream feed enterprises maintain high - inventory rolling, resulting in weak short - term follow - up buying willingness and sluggish soybean meal transactions at oil mills [35]. - In the short term, influenced by the cooling sentiment in the rapeseed sector and news of customs inspections in some areas, short - term trading is recommended for soybean meal; rapeseed meal is more volatile, and short - term trading should be accompanied by risk prevention [36]. - In the long term, the global soybean supply is ample, limiting the sustained upward momentum of the soybean sector [37]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Prices**: As of August 14, the closing price of the main soybean meal futures contract (M2601) was 3157 yuan/ton, up 2.77% from August 6; the main rapeseed meal futures contract (RM509) was 2686 yuan/ton, down 2.15%; the main corn futures contract (C2511) was 2281 yuan/ton, up 0.97%; the main live hog futures contract (LH2511) was 13900 yuan/ton, down 0.79%; the main egg futures contract (JD2510) was 3189 yuan/ton, down 5.60% [4]. - **Spot Prices**: On August 14, the spot price of 43% protein soybean meal in Shandong was 3000 yuan/ton, up 3.81% from August 6; the average price of rapeseed meal in China was 2600 yuan/ton, down 2.26%; the aggregated price of second - grade corn with 14.5% moisture in Bayuquan Port was 2310 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average daily slaughter price of commercial hogs in Henan was 13.76 yuan/kg, down 1.43%; the average price of eggs in the main producing areas in China was 3.07 yuan/jin, up 5.50% [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Cost - end**: In the next 6 - 10 days, most areas in the main US soybean - producing states will have higher - than - normal temperatures, and half of the areas will have precipitation close to the median. The USDA's August report showed that although the 2025/26 US soybean yield per acre increased from 52.5 bushels to 53.6 bushels, the sown area decreased from 83.4 million acres to 80.9 million acres, and the production decreased from 4.335 billion bushels to 4.292 billion bushels, reaching the sixth - highest in history. The USDA lowered the 2025/26 US soybean ending inventory to 290 million bushels, lower than the market expectation of 351 million bushels and the July forecast of 310 million bushels, hitting a three - year low. In July, Brazil's soybean exports reached 12.25 million tons, a record high for the same period. From January to July, Brazil's cumulative exports of oil crops reached 77.2 million tons, the first time to exceed this level in the same period of previous years. As of August 6, Argentine farmers had pre - sold 28.83 million tons of 2024/25 soybeans, 870,000 tons more than a week ago [7]. - **Supply - Import**: Affected by Brazil's strong exports and concerns about supply due to Sino - US trade uncertainties, China's soybean imports in July reached a record high for the same period for the third consecutive month. In July, China imported 11.67 million tons of soybeans, a 4.8% decrease from June but still the highest for the same period in history, an 18.5% increase from the same period in 2024. The total soybean imports in the first seven months of this year reached 61.04 million tons, a 4.6% year - on - year increase. The market expects soybean imports in August and September to remain above 10 million tons, with most coming from Brazil. However, China has not booked any US soybean cargoes for the fourth quarter, raising concerns about a potential supply shortage [7]. - **Demand - Pressing and Transaction**: As of the week ending August 8, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.1775 million tons, with an operating rate of 61.21%. On August 14, the total soybean meal transaction volume was 73,700 tons, 2900 tons less than the previous day, and the spot transaction volume was 28,700 tons. The weekly average showed that the total soybean meal transaction volume was 511,980 tons, and the spot transaction volume was 70,920 tons. Currently, the domestic soybean supply is abundant, oil mills have high soybean meal inventories, and downstream feed enterprises maintain high - inventory rolling, resulting in weak short - term follow - up buying willingness and sluggish soybean meal transactions at oil mills [7]. - **Inventory**: As of the week ending August 8, the soybean inventory was 7.1056 million tons, an 8.38% increase from the previous week and a 0.59% decrease from the same period in 2024; the soybean meal inventory was 1.0035 million tons, a 3.66% decrease from the previous week and a 31.74% decrease from the same period in 2024 [7]. 3.3 Supply - end - **Import**: As of August 14, the CNF price of Brazilian soybeans was 497.00 US dollars/ton, up 12 US dollars/ton from the previous week; the CNF price of US West Coast soybeans was 454.00 US dollars/ton, up 17 US dollars/ton from the previous week [11][12]. - **Pressing**: As of the week ending August 14, the soybean crushing profit was 209.40 yuan/ton, up 56.50 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of the week ending August 8, the domestic oil mill's weekly soybean crushing volume was 2.359 million tons, up 129,500 tons from the previous week. As of August 8, the domestic soybean oil mill operating rate was 60%, an increase of 3 percentage points from the previous week [15]. 3.4 Inventory - end - As of August 14, the imported soybean port inventory was 6.7355 million tons, a decrease of 108,000 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean port inventory is at a near - five - year low. As of August 1, the oil mill's soybean meal inventory was 960,900 tons, a decrease of 16,700 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the domestic mainstream oil mill's soybean meal inventory is at a near - five - year medium level [18]. 3.5 Demand - end - As of August 8, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal at domestic mainstream oil mills was 500,700 tons, an increase of 222,400 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, it is at a near - five - year high level [22]. 3.6 Pig - end No specific content was provided for analysis in the given text. 3.7 Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Due to the cooling sentiment in the rapeseed sector and news of customs inspections in some areas, short - term trading is recommended for soybean meal; rapeseed meal is more volatile, and short - term trading should be accompanied by risk prevention [36]. - Long - term: The global soybean supply is ample, limiting the sustained upward momentum of the soybean sector [37]. 3.8 Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning The focus includes the weather in production areas, trade relations, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [38].
【早间看点】欧盟或允许零关税进口一定额度且符合条件的印棕,加拿大6月菜籽压榨环比升3.0%-20250730
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 05:10
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight and spot market conditions of various commodities including palm oil, soybean, and related products, along with important fundamental information such as weather in the US, international and domestic supply - demand situations, macro - economic news, and capital flows in the market [1][2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Conditions - **Futures**: The closing prices and daily and overnight price changes of commodities like Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, and US soybean futures are presented. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 10 (BMD) is 4283.00, with a daily increase of 0.35% and an overnight increase of 0.68% [1]. - **Currencies**: The latest prices and price changes of the US dollar index and multiple currencies against the US dollar are provided, such as the US dollar index at 98.90, up 0.25% [1]. Spot Market Conditions - **Futures and Spot**: The spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2509, DCE soybean oil 2509, and DCE soybean meal 2509 in different regions are given. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2509 in North China is 9050, with a basis of 130 and no change in basis from the previous day [2]. - **Imported Soybean Quotes**: The CNF premiums and CNF quotes of imported soybeans from different regions are shown, like the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans is 266 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 469 dollars per ton [4]. Important Fundamental Information - **Weather in Production Areas**: The future weather outlook of US soybean - producing states from August 3rd to 7th shows that the temperature is close to the average and precipitation is mostly above the median. The Midwest planting belt has rising temperatures and relatively high soil moisture [5][7]. - **International Supply - Demand**: The EU and Indonesia reached an agreement on palm oil trade, with the EU allowing zero - tariff imports of a certain quota of Indonesian palm oil. Indonesia is expected to export over 500 tons of palm oil to India in 2025. Brazil's July soybean and soybean meal export forecasts are lower than the previous week. EU's 2025/26 imports of palm oil, soybean, soybean meal, and rapeseed are all lower than the same period last year. Canada's June rapeseed crushing volume increased by 3.0% month - on - month [9][10][11]. - **Domestic Supply - Demand**: On July 29th, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 152% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills increased significantly, and the operating rate of oil mills rose. The national soybean oil port inventory increased by 2.8 tons compared to the previous week [14]. Macroeconomic News - **International News**: The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.6%. The US consumer confidence index in July is 97.2, higher than the expected value [15]. - **Domestic News**: On July 29th, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was reported at 7.1511, up 44 points. The Chinese central bank conducted 4492 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net investment of 2344 billion yuan [18]. Capital Flows On July 29th, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 38.56 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital outflow of 0.57 billion yuan, including an outflow of 9.38 billion yuan from agricultural product futures and 8.29 billion yuan from chemical futures, while black - series futures had a net capital inflow of 33.2 billion yuan. Index futures had a net capital outflow of 38 billion yuan [21].
油料日报:大豆花生表现分化,产区天气成焦点-20250723
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 05:31
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][4] Core View of the Report - The performance of soybeans and peanuts is diverging, with the focus on the weather in the production areas. The soybean futures rose while the peanut futures weakened. The market is influenced by factors such as auctions, planting conditions, and weather forecasts [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybean 2509 contract was 4232.00 yuan/ton, up 33.00 yuan/ton or 0.79% from the previous day. - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A09 + 68, down 33 or 32.14% from the previous day. - Market news: Northeast soybean prices were stable today. On July 21, 42032 tons of soybeans planned by CGC were all sold with premiums. Future rainfall in Northeast China is expected to increase, benefiting soybean growth. Anhui has mild drought [1][2] Strategy - Neutral [3] Peanut View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 8140.00 yuan/ton, down 66.00 yuan/ton or 0.80% from the previous day. - Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8700.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis was PK10 + -40.00, up 66.00 or -62.26% from the previous day. - Market news: The domestic peanut market was stable. The raw material acquisition in the production areas has basically ended, and the cold storage goods are mainly traded. The short - term upward momentum of peanuts has weakened, and the price is suppressed by the expected increase in production and the decline in planting costs [3][4] Strategy - Neutral [4]
豆系研究周报:产区天气暂时无忧,CBOT大豆涨幅受限-20250721
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 13:12
Report Title - 【国富豆系研究周报】产区天气暂时无忧,CBOT大豆涨幅受限 [1] Core View - The weather in the production areas is temporarily worry - free, and the increase of CBOT soybeans is limited [1] Summary by Directory I. Market Review - The review includes soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil [4] II. Production Area Weather - Focuses on the weather in the US soybean production areas [4] III. International Supply and Demand - Covers the supply and demand of US, Brazilian, and Argentine soybeans [4] IV. Domestic Supply and Demand - Analyzes the supply and demand of soybean oil and soybean meal [4] V. Domestic and International Oil Futures and Spot Prices, and Spread Situations - Includes basis, monthly spread, variety spread situations, FOB quotes, and CFTC position situations [4]
国泰君安期货研究周报:农产品-20250706
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-06 12:49
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: It is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term pressure comes from the复产 situation. If there is excessive inventory accumulation from August to September or poor demand sentiment in China and India, it is suitable for seasonal short - allocation, mainly using the 9 - 1 reverse spread strategy. There is still room for price pressure to be released due to the concentrated listing of European rapeseed and potential downward pressure on crude oil. In the second half of the year, there are potential positives in production and demand. After the fundamental problems are digested in the third quarter, there may be opportunities to go long on palm oil at low positions [4][5][9]. - **Soybean Oil**: It is also in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. Currently, inventory is accumulating rapidly, but it may peak in July. After the third quarter, if there are issues in soybean imports, there may be opportunities to go long on soybean oil and narrow the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil. Attention should be paid to the expected change in palm oil inventory inflection point and the US soybean oil biodiesel policy [8][9]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: It is expected that the prices of soybean meal and soybean No.1 futures will fluctuate. For soybean meal, attention should be paid to US trade agreements, US soybean production area weather, and the July USDA supply - demand report. For domestic soybeans, the spot market is stable, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the soybean market [22]. - **Corn**: It is expected to run in a volatile manner. CBOT corn has risen, wheat prices have increased, and corn starch inventory has risen. The futures market has declined due to import corn auctions, but the supply - demand imbalance pattern remains unchanged [42][44][47]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, it is in low - level consolidation, with a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation. Domestically, it lacks guidance and is in narrow - range consolidation, with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern continuing [79][108]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton is in a low - level volatile market, affected by the higher - than - expected US cotton planting area and the approaching deadline of US tariff policy. Domestic cotton futures are also in a volatile trend, with price support from concerns about tight domestic cotton inventory, but limited upward momentum due to poor downstream conditions [109][110][126]. - **Hogs**: The spot price is running strongly, with tight supply at the beginning of the month and decreased demand. The futures price is also running strongly [130]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Situation**: Palm oil followed crude oil and US soybean oil, with the 09 contract rising 1.15%. Soybean oil had weak reality trading, with the 09 contract falling 0.72% [4]. - **This Week's Situation**: Palm oil is in an oscillatingly strong pattern, but there are uncertainties in Malaysian production from June to August. Indonesian prices are high, and the market is sensitive to the reduction of US soybean oil supply. Soybean oil inventory may peak in July, and there are potential positives after the third quarter [5][8]. - **Market Data**: Palm oil main - continuous contract had an opening price of 8,366 yuan/ton, a closing price of 8,472 yuan/ton, and a weekly increase of 1.15%. Soybean oil main - continuous contract had an opening price of 7,994 yuan/ton, a closing price of 7,944 yuan/ton, and a weekly decrease of 0.72% [11]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Last Week's Situation**: US soybean futures prices rose mainly due to the rise of US soybean oil and potential progress in US - China trade negotiations. Domestic soybean meal futures prices were mixed, and soybean No.1 futures prices were weak [17][18]. - **International Market Fundamentals**: US soybean net sales increased week - on - week, the excellent - good rate was flat, Brazilian soybean CNF premiums and import costs increased, and the USDA planting area report was positive while the quarterly inventory report was negative [18]. - **Domestic Spot Situation**: For soybean meal, trading volume increased, pick - up volume decreased, basis decreased, inventory increased, and soybean crushing volume decreased. For soybean No.1, the price was stable in the north and rose slightly in the south, and new beans in the northeast were growing well [21][22]. Corn - **Market Review**: In the spot market, corn prices rose in the week of July 4. In the futures market, prices fell due to import corn auctions, and the basis strengthened [42][43]. - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn rose due to expected rainfall. Wheat prices increased, and import corn auctions were active. Corn starch inventory increased, and the futures market declined due to policy - driven imports, but the supply - demand imbalance remained [44][45][47]. Sugar - **This Week's Market Review**: Internationally, the US dollar index decreased, the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate decreased, WTI crude oil prices fell, and New York raw sugar prices fell. Fund net long positions decreased significantly. Domestically, the spot price in Guangxi rose slightly, and Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell slightly, with a slightly higher basis [77][78]. - **Next Week's Market Outlook**: Internationally, it is in low - level consolidation, with a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation. Domestically, it lacks guidance and is in narrow - range consolidation, with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern continuing [79]. Cotton - **Situation as of July 4**: ICE cotton fell 1.28% after the release of the US cotton planting area report. Domestic textile enterprises' operating conditions did not improve, and domestic cotton futures were oscillatingly strong, with limited upward momentum due to poor downstream conditions [109][110]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, US cotton export sales data showed different trends in different periods. Other major cotton - producing and consuming countries had different situations in planting, production, and trade. Domestically, cotton spot trading was weak, prices were stable, and downstream trading was still light [114][115][121]. Hogs - **This Week's Market Review (June 30 - July 6)**: In the spot market, hog prices were running strongly, with tight supply and decreased demand. In the futures market, the price was also running strongly, and the basis decreased slightly [130].
豆粕周报:进口成本抬升,连粕震荡收涨-20250609
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 03:10
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the CBOT July soybean contract rose 15.75 to close at 1058 cents per bushel, a 1.51% increase; the soybean meal 09 contract rose 42 to close at 3010 yuan per ton, a 1.42% increase; the South China soybean meal spot price fell 60 to close at 2820 yuan per ton, a 2.08% decrease; the rapeseed meal 09 contract fell 29 to close at 2608 yuan per ton, a 1.1% decrease; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price fell 30 to close at 2460 yuan per ton, a 1.2% decrease [4]. - After the China - US presidential call, trade concerns eased, the market atmosphere improved, and US soybeans closed higher with weekly fluctuations. The US soybean sowing season is nearing its end and started well. Domestic oil mills' operating rates are at a high level, and soybeans and soybean meal are in an inventory - building rhythm, with supply becoming more abundant and spot prices under slight downward pressure. Boosted by trade sentiment, US soybeans rose. Coupled with the decline in Brazilian farmers' selling enthusiasm and the increase in premiums, the Dalian soybean meal contract fluctuated upwards. There is an expectation of improvement in China - Canada trade relations, and the rapeseed sector showed weakness due to sentiment, with rapeseed meal closing lower with fluctuations [4][7]. - The US soybean crop condition report shows a good start. The weather forecast indicates that overall precipitation in the production areas is higher than normal, but the central - western production areas are relatively dry, which may put pressure on regional crop growth. Continued attention should be paid to weather changes. After the China - US presidential call, trade sentiment improved, and further negotiation progress should be monitored. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are continuously increasing, supply is becoming more abundant, and spot prices are still under pressure, limiting the upward range of the futures market. The far - month contracts are still strongly supported, and the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate slightly upwards in the short term. In addition, attention should be paid to the evolution of China - Canada trade relations and its potential impact on the rapeseed sector [4][11]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean price on June 6 was 1058.00 cents per bushel, up 15.75 (1.51%) from May 30. The CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans was 447.00 dollars per ton, up 6.00 (1.36%); the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans was 457.00 dollars per ton, up 1.00 (0.22%). The Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the futures market was 81.71 yuan per ton, down 13.59 from the previous period. The DCE soybean meal 09 contract was 3010.00 yuan per ton, up 42 (1.42%); the CZCE rapeseed meal 09 contract was 2608.00 yuan per ton, down 29 (1.1%). The spot price of soybean meal in East China was 2840.00 yuan per ton, down 20 (0.70%); in South China, it was 2820.00 yuan per ton, down 60 (2.08%). The spot - futures price difference in South China was - 190.00 yuan per ton, down 102 from the previous period [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **US Soybeans**: The US soybean sowing progress as of June 1, 2025, was 84%, lower than the market expectation of 86%. The emergence rate was 63%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 67%, lower than the market expectation of 68%. As of May 27, about 17% of the planting areas were affected by drought. The weekly export inspection volume as of May 29 was 26.83 tons, in line with expectations. The current - market - year export net sales increased by 19.4 tons. The cumulative export sales volume in the 2024/2025 season was 4865 tons, with a sales progress of 96.6%. The US soybean crushing volume in April was 607 million short tons, and the cumulative crushing volume from September 2024 to April 2025 was 4924 million short tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.94%. The crushing profit as of May 30 was 2.11 dollars per bushel, down 1% from the previous week [8][9]. - **Brazilian and Argentine Soybeans**: As of May 31, the 2024/2025 Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 99.8%. The estimated soybean export volume in June was 1255 tons, lower than last year's 1383 tons. As of June 4, the Argentine soybean harvest progress was 88.7%, and the estimated 2024/2025 harvest was about 5000 tons [10]. - **Domestic Situation**: As of May 30, the inventory of major oil mills' soybeans was 582.88 tons, up 22.25 tons from the previous week; the soybean meal inventory was 29.8 tons, up 9.11 tons; the unexecuted contracts were 369.29 tons, up 33.89 tons. The national port soybean inventory was 705.4 tons, up 30.1 tons. As of June 6, the weekly average daily trading volume of national soybean meal was 11.94 tons (9.59 tons for spot and 2.35 tons for forward contracts), the average daily pick - up volume was 20.12 tons, the major oil mills' crushing volume was 224.46 tons, and the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 6.31 days [10][11]. Industry News - Strategic Grains significantly revised down the EU's 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast to 1860 tons, lower than the April forecast of 1900 tons but about 11% higher than the 2024/2025 production. It also revised down the EU's 2025/26 sunflower seed and soybean production forecasts [12]. - The IMEA in Brazil's Mato Grosso state maintained its 2025/26 soybean planting area forecast at 1300.82 million hectares, up 1.67% from the previous year; the yield per unit area was expected to be 60.45 bags per hectare, down 8.81%; the production was expected to be 4718.44 tons, down 7.29% [13]. - As of June 1, the EU's 2024/25 palm oil imports were 263 tons, down from 324 tons last year; soybean imports were 1294 tons, up from 1213 tons; soybean meal imports were 1768 tons, up from 1408 tons; rapeseed imports were 640 tons, up from 519 tons [13]. - As of May 28, Argentine farmers sold 90.89 tons of 2024/25 soybeans, with a cumulative sales volume of 1787.65 tons. They also sold 2.71 tons of 2025/26 soybeans, with a cumulative sales volume of 12.84 tons [14]. - A commodity research institution maintained its 2025/26 Ukrainian rapeseed production forecast at 325 tons. The weather conditions in Ukraine have been mixed in the past two weeks, with the western region being cool and wet and the eastern region being warm and dry [15]. - The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina indicated that the current - year soybean yield per unit area is developing better than expected, and the estimated 2024/25 soybean harvest is about 5000 tons and 4900 tons of corn [15]. Relevant Charts - The report includes multiple charts such as the US soybean continuous contract trend, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival price, RMB spot exchange rate trend, regional crushing profit, management fund CBOT net position, soybean meal futures and spot price trends, US soybean production area precipitation and temperature, Argentine soybean harvest progress, US soybean export - related data, US oil mill crushing profit, soybean meal trading and pick - up volume, and port and oil mill inventory data [16][17][18][21][35][36][40][43][47][49][53][54][55].
供应逐步恢复,连粕或弱势震荡
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-05-19 01:51
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, the CBOT July soybean contract fell 1.25 to close at 1051 cents per bushel, a decline of 0.12%; the September bean meal contract remained flat; the South China bean meal spot price dropped 80 to 3060 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.55%; the September rapeseed meal contract fell 38 to 2513 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.49%; and the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price dropped 60 to 2370 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.47% [4][7]. - U.S. soybeans first rose and then fell. The May USDA report was bullish, and the extension of the clean fuel tax credit boosted prices. However, the expected U.S. biodiesel mandatory blending target was much lower than expected, and the sharp decline in U.S. soybean oil drove soybeans down. The U.S. soybean sowing maintained a relatively fast pace, and the weather conditions were good. The oil mill operating rate rebounded, the expected supply of bean meal increased, the spot price was under pressure to fall, and the basis declined. In the weak reality pattern, the Dalian bean meal fluctuated weakly [4][7]. - The weather in the U.S. soybean - producing areas is good, and the sowing season may proceed smoothly. Recently, the U.S. biodiesel policy has high uncertainty, which intensifies the market volatility. There is no theme to drive the market, and U.S. soybeans are likely to fluctuate. In China, the oil mill operating rate has rebounded, the supply is gradually recovering, the inventories of oil mills and feed enterprises have both increased, the trading demand declined last week, and the spot price is still under pressure. Since the rapeseed meal inventory is still available, as the bean meal spot price falls, the substitution demand increases, and rapeseed meal is still under short - term pressure. Overall, both bean meal and rapeseed meal may fluctuate weakly [4][12]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT July soybean contract fell 1.25 to 1051 cents per bushel, a decline of 0.12%. The CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans increased by 1 to 434 dollars per ton, a rise of 0.23%, and that of U.S. Gulf soybeans increased by 4 to 457 dollars per ton, a rise of 0.88%. The Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the disk increased by 8.08 to 83.74 yuan per ton. The DCE bean meal contract remained flat at 2899 yuan per ton. The CZCE rapeseed meal contract fell 38 to 2513 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.49%. The bean - rapeseed meal price difference increased by 38 to 386 yuan per ton. The East China spot price dropped 200 to 3000 yuan per ton, a decline of 6.25%, and the South China spot price dropped 80 to 3060 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.55%. The South China spot - futures price difference dropped 80 to 161 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The May USDA report showed that in the 2024/2025 season, U.S. soybean export demand was raised by 25 million bushels to 1.85 billion bushels, and the ending inventory dropped to 350 million bushels. For the 2025/2026 new - season U.S. soybean balance sheet, the yield per acre was 52.5 bushels, the output was 4.34 billion bushels, which was in line with expectations. In terms of demand, the crushing demand increased to 2.49 billion bushels, the export demand decreased to 1.815 billion bushels, and the ending inventory dropped to 295 million bushels. The report was generally bullish [8]. - As of the week of May 11, 2025, the U.S. soybean planting progress was 48%, higher than the market expectation of 47%, the previous week's 30%, and last year's 34%, with a five - year average of 37%. The emergence rate was 17%, compared with 7% in the previous week, 15% last year, and a five - year average of 11%. As of the week of May 6, about 15% of the U.S. soybean planting areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and higher than last year's 11%. The weather forecast shows that the northern U.S. soybean - producing areas may have more precipitation, which may slow down the sowing progress, but the weather conditions in other areas are good, which is conducive to maintaining a relatively fast sowing pace [8]. - As of the week of May 8, 2025, the net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the current market season increased by 282,000 tons to 377,000 tons. The cumulative export sales volume of U.S. soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 48 million tons, with a sales progress of 95.3%, higher than last year's 92.1%. China did not purchase U.S. soybeans that week, and the cumulative purchase volume in the current season was 22.48 million tons [9]. - The NOPA crushing report showed that the U.S. soybean oil inventory in April 2025 was 1.527 billion pounds, higher than the market expectation of 1.412 billion pounds and the March 2025 level of 1.498 billion pounds. The U.S. soybean crushing volume in April 2025 was 190.226 million bushels, higher than the market expectation of 184.642 million bushels and lower than the March 2025 level of 194.551 million bushels [9]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing profit was 1.78 dollars per bushel, up from 1.75 dollars per bushel the previous week. The truck quotation of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 47.98 cents per pound, down from 49.03 cents per pound the previous week. The price of 48% protein bean meal in Illinois soybean processing plants was 290.38 dollars per short - ton, up from 287.08 dollars per short - ton the previous week. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 10.63 dollars per bushel, down from 10.71 dollars per bushel the previous week [10]. - Conab data showed that as of the week of May 10, 2025, the harvesting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 98.5%, higher than the previous week's 97.7%, last year's 95.6%, and the five - year average of 97.6%. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in May were expected to reach 14.27 million tons, higher than last year's 13.47 million tons [10]. - The Buenos Aires Exchange reported that the Argentine soybean harvesting progress was 64.9%, up from 44.9% the previous week, and the harvesting work accelerated. In the next 15 days, the weather in the producing areas will be relatively dry, which is conducive to the progress of harvesting [10]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 5.3491 million tons, an increase of 602,700 tons from the previous week and 1.1634 million tons from the same period last year. The bean meal inventory was 101,200 tons, an increase of 19,100 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 458,000 tons from the same period last year. The unexecuted contracts were 4.7368 million tons, an increase of 436,000 tons from the previous week and 221,900 tons from the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 6.234 million tons, an increase of 702,000 tons from the previous week and 620,200 tons from the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the daily average trading volume of national bean meal was 78,100 tons, including 40,600 tons of spot trading and 37,500 tons of forward trading. The previous week's daily average total trading volume was 264,600 tons. The daily average pick - up volume of bean meal was 157,000 tons, up from 151,000 tons the previous week. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 1.9055 million tons, up from 1.846 million tons the previous week. The inventory days of bean meal in feed enterprises were 5.14 days, up from 4.45 days the previous week [11]. Industry News - Brazil's foreign trade secretariat (Secex) data showed that Brazil exported 4,766,710.61 tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of May, with a daily average export volume of 794,451.77 tons, a 24% increase compared with the daily average export volume of 639,843.92 tons in May last year. The total export volume in May last year was 13,436,722.31 tons [13]. - The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (IMEA) reported that the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso from May 5 - 9 was 612.80 reais per ton, down from 623.09 reais per ton the previous week. The bean meal price in that week was 1690.10 reais per ton, and the soybean oil price was 5735.94 reais per ton [13]. - The U.S. House of Representatives Tax Committee proposed to extend the 45Z clean fuel tax credit policy to December 31, 2031, and cancel the impact of indirect land - use change (ILUC) on tax - credit assessment, which may significantly reduce the compliance costs of biofuel producers. Biodiesel producers using soybean oil as raw materials are expected to be the main beneficiaries [13]. - If the U.S. and China fail to reach a new trade agreement, U.S. soybean exports may decline by 20%, and the price will plummet. The U.S. soybean export volume may drop from the initial 1.865 billion bushels to 1.5 billion bushels, and the farm price may drop to 9.10 dollars per bushel in the 2025/2026 season, compared with the USDA's forecast of 10.25 dollars per bushel [14]. - CONAB's May forecast data showed that the expected output of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 168.3418 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.6205 million tons (14%) and a month - on - month increase of 472,000 tons (0.3%). The expected sowing area was 47.6127 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 1.4631 million hectares (3.2%) and a month - on - month increase of 97,000 hectares (0.2%). The expected yield per hectare was 3.54 tons, a year - on - year increase of 334.7 kilograms (10.5%) and a month - on - month increase of 2.7 kilograms (0.1%) [15]. - A commodity research report showed that Australia's rapeseed output in the 2025/2026 season was expected to be 6.2 million tons, in line with the USDA's monthly supply - and - demand report. The forecast range was between 5.7 - 6.3 million tons. Most areas in Australia were dry in the past two weeks. In the next 15 days, the key rapeseed - producing areas in New South Wales are expected to receive above - average rainfall, while other areas in Australia will remain dry until the end of the month. The seasonal weather model shows that Australia's rainfall and temperature in June will be normal, which may relieve the current drought and help the early growth of crops [16]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of U.S. soybean continuous contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival price, RMB spot exchange rate, regional crushing profit, bean meal main contract trend, spot - futures price difference of bean meal, management fund CBOT net position, regional bean meal spot price, bean meal M 9 - 1 inter - month price difference, U.S. soybean - producing area precipitation and temperature, Argentine soybean harvesting progress, U.S. soybean cumulative export sales volume to the world, U.S. soybean weekly net sales volume, U.S. soybean cumulative sales volume to China, U.S. soybean weekly export volume, U.S. oil mill crushing profit, bean meal weekly average pick - up volume, bean meal weekly average trading volume, port soybean inventory, oil mill soybean inventory, oil mill weekly crushing volume, oil mill crushing operating rate, oil mill bean meal inventory, and feed enterprise bean meal inventory days [17][18][19][22][24][26][28][30][32][34][38][40][42][43][45][47][49][51][52][53].
油脂:两报告落地,国内盘面反应平淡
Zi Jin Tian Feng· 2025-05-15 08:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the palm oil market and related industries, covering aspects such as production, price, weather, and profit. It presents data on international palm oil production, prices of various oils, import and processing profits, weather conditions in palm oil - producing regions, and biodiesel processing and blending profits, as well as the demand - side situation of the oil market [4][8][11][128]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil Production and Market Data - MPOB data shows that in the 4th period, the palm oil production situation includes aspects such as the production of smallholders and large - scale plantations, with a 14% increase in production in certain areas compared to the previous period, and a 20% increase in the 4th period compared to the 3rd period in some regions [4]. - The prices of international soybeans from different origins (Ukraine, Brazil, Germany, etc.) and various international oils (Russian sunflower oil, Indonesian CPO, etc.) are presented, with price fluctuations over different time points from March to May 2025 [8][12]. - The FOB price spreads of different oils, such as the price spreads between Malaysian and Indonesian RBD Olein, and between Argentine soybean oil and Indonesian CPO, are analyzed [15][17]. 3.2 Import and Processing Profits - The palm oil on - the - plate profit for different shipping dates (from October to May) is presented, showing profit fluctuations over time [30]. - The import and processing profits of Brazilian soybean oil and Canadian rapeseed are also analyzed, with historical data from 2021 - 2025 and the average value from 2021 - 2024 [31]. 3.3 Weather Conditions in Palm Oil - Producing Regions - Weather data for multiple palm oil - producing regions in Malaysia (Sabah, Sarawak, Pahang, Johor) and other areas (Kalimantan, Sumatra, Jambi, Riau) are provided, including soil moisture, average weekly temperature, daily rainfall, and rainfall and temperature forecasts [38][51][65]. 3.4 Biodiesel - The processing profit and blending profit of US biodiesel are analyzed, with historical data from 2007 - 2025 and the average value from 2007 - 2024 (for processing profit) and 2021 - 2024 (for blending profit) [129][131]. 3.5 Demand - Side Situation - The weekly trading volume of different oils (palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean oil) is presented, showing the trading volume changes from April 15 to May 9, 2025 [141][142].