格隆汇10月13日｜在美股徘徊于纪录高位之际，分析师对企业盈利的乐观情绪正在降温，显示本轮行情 在财报季中可能遭遇阻力。花旗集团追踪美国企业盈利预期调整的指数（衡量上调与下调预测数量之 比）近期首次自8月以来转为持平。同时，标普500指数的远期市盈率达22倍，高于过去十年平均水平近 19倍。Evercore ISI策略师Julian Emanuel指出，财报季的股价反应预计将"剧烈分化"，难以成为推动指 数上行的催化剂，当前市场估值"几乎已反映完美预期"。RBC资本市场策略师Lori Calvasina表示，与上 季度相比，本季企业超预期盈利的比例预计将放缓，因为关税带来的冲击更大，"对于市值最大的公司 而言，盈利情绪正处在关键转折点。" 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Core Viewpoint - Palantir's stock price has dropped over 9% on Tuesday, marking the fifth consecutive trading day of decline, with a total drop of over 15% in five days despite reporting its first quarterly revenue exceeding $1 billion since its IPO [2] Financial Performance - Palantir reported a quarterly revenue exceeding $1 billion for the first time since its IPO, which initially led to a stock price peak [2] - The stock has increased over 100% since 2025, but the forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at 245 times, significantly higher than major tech companies like Microsoft, Apple, Meta, and Alphabet [2] Valuation Concerns - Analysts indicate that Palantir needs to generate $60 billion in revenue over the next 12 months to achieve a valuation comparable to its peers [2] - The majority of analysts have rated Palantir as a sell or hold [2] Short Selling Perspective - Andrew Left, founder of the well-known short-selling firm Citron Research, believes Palantir is "significantly overvalued" and suggests that the stock has more than 70% downside potential [2]

Group 1 - Hedge funds sold technology stocks at the fastest pace in 12 months as the S&P 500 index reached a historical high [1] - The S&P 500 index has risen approximately 28% since its low in 2025, while the Nasdaq Composite index has increased by 38% during the same period [1] - The forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 index reached 23.11, near a five-month high, indicating elevated valuations compared to the past decade [1] Group 2 - The consumer staples sector saw the highest net buying volume among U.S. stocks last week, with hedge funds increasing their positions for four consecutive weeks [2] - The stocks being purchased primarily belong to companies in food and beverage, as well as personal care products, indicating a shift towards more stable investments [2]

Group 1 - The Japanese stock market is experiencing a significant rise, with some market indicators approaching levels seen before last year's crash, driven by the US-Japan trade agreement pushing indices to historical highs [1] - Concerns are raised about the current market's vulnerability, as technical indicators show similarities to the situation before last year's sell-off, particularly with the Tokyo Stock Exchange index (TSE) reaching a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) of approximately 79, indicating potential overbought conditions [1] - The TSE index is currently more than 5% above its 25-day moving average, a deviation historically associated with market corrections, as seen in September 2021 and March 2022 [4] Group 2 - The recent rise in the TSE index has not been accompanied by an increase in trading volume, suggesting a lack of strong market confidence [7] - As the summer season approaches and trading volume decreases, the market may face volatility following the rapid increase, with many companies likely to adopt cautious outlooks during the earnings season due to tariff impacts [10] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio of the TSE index has reached 15.7 times, nearing the 15.87 times level seen before last August's decline, although it remains cheaper compared to US stocks [10]