格隆汇1月6日丨雅迪控股(01585.HK)发布公告，集团预期于截至2025年12月31日止年度录得的纯利不少 于人民币29亿元，而2024年同期录得的纯利则为人民币12.7亿元。预期纯利增加主要由于电动两轮车销 售增加及优化产品结构所致。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the stock index may continue a relatively strong trend, but attention should be paid to the impact of overseas geopolitical events on market risk appetite. In the long - term, the stock index is expected to rise in 2026 based on 2025 [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have various trends, including price increases, oscillations, and potential reversals, with corresponding investment strategies recommended [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Short - term, the stock index may continue to be strong, and in the long - term (2026), it is expected to rise on the basis of 2025 due to factors like continuous policy efforts, inflation recovery, capital market reform, and the support of Central Huijin [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks, and the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price has further increased due to weak industry fundamentals but positive macro sentiment and continuous premium. However, short - term adjustment risks should be guarded against, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but positive macro sentiment and the early fermentation of supply - tightness expectations are likely to keep the price strong [1]. - Alumina: The supply side has a large release space, and the weak industry fundamentals put pressure on the price. However, the current price is near the cost line, so it is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, recent negative factors have been mostly realized, and market sentiment is volatile, leading to price oscillations [1]. - Nickel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about supply due to Indonesian events, slow inventory accumulation, and unconfirmed Indonesian policies are likely to keep the short - term price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices and control risks [1]. - Stainless Steel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about raw - material supply, a rebound in nickel - iron prices, a slight reduction in social inventory, and an increase in January production plans are likely to keep the short - term futures price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices, and enterprises should wait for opportunities to sell and hedge [1]. - Tin: The industry association's initiative has put pressure on the price, but considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa, the supply may still be affected. After a short - term decline, the downward space is limited, and low - long opportunities near the support level are recommended [1]. - Precious Metals: Geopolitical risks and international - order uncertainties have boosted the demand for hedging, making the price strong in the short - term. However, the high VIX of silver indicates potential risks. Platinum and palladium are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and platinum can be bought at low prices or a [long - platinum short - palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - Iron Ore: There is a combination of weak reality (weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation) and strong expectation (potential supply disturbances from energy - consumption control and anti - involution). The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, while the far - month contract has upward potential [1]. - Steel (including Rebar): The valuation of the price is not high, and it is not recommended to short. Positions in cash - and - carry arbitrage can take rolling profits [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand are acceptable, and the valuation is low, so the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure to oscillate [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply and demand, low valuation, and limited downward space, and may oscillate under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal: The fourth - round spot price cut has started. After the futures price dropped to the corresponding position and rebounded, attention should be paid to whether it can reach a new low during the implementation of the price cut. There is a high possibility of wide - range oscillations [1]. - Coke: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact on the price [1]. - Fuel Oil: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five - Year Plan's rush - work demand is falsified, the supply of Marey crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The cost is strongly supported, the spot - futures price difference is low, and the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate [1]. - Rubber: For natural rubber, the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate, and the price oscillates. For BR rubber, the futures position has declined, the price increase has slowed down, the processing profit is gradually repaired, it maintains high - level operation in terms of production and inventory, and the spot trading is weak [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp increase, and the domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the recovery of exports to India since the end of November [1]. - MEG: Two sets of MEG devices in Taiwan, China, are planned to stop production due to efficiency reasons. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news, and the downstream polyester operating rate is over 90%, with better - than - expected demand [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to fluctuate closely following the cost [1]. - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to reduce prices due to continuous losses, while buyers keep pressing prices due to weak downstream demand and profit compression. The market is in a weak - balance state, and the short - term upward momentum depends on overseas market drive [1]. - Steam: The upward space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - Propylene: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, the cost is strongly supported by high - level propylene monomers and rising crude - oil prices, and there is a risk of rising crude - oil prices due to intensified geopolitical conflicts [1]. - PVC: The global production in 2026 is expected to be low, but currently, new capacity is being released, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak [1]. - Chlorine: The inventory pressure in Shandong is large, the supply pressure is high due to high - level operation and few overhauls, the non - aluminum demand is in the off - season, and the cost support is weakened by the rising price of liquid chlorine [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, providing strong cost - end support. Geopolitical conflicts in the US, Venezuela, and the Middle East have increased the short - term risk premium. The EIA weekly C3 inventory is in an accumulation trend, with a temporary slowdown in overseas demand. The domestic PDH maintains high - level operation but is deeply in deficit, and the overseas olefin blending - oil demand is acceptable [1]. New Energy and Silicon Industry - Polysilicon: There is production increase in the northwest and decrease in the southwest. The December production plan has decreased. A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation in the fourth quarter has increased marginally. Large enterprises are willing to support the price but not to deliver. The short - term speculative sentiment is high [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is the traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles, the energy - storage demand is strong, the supply - side production resumption has increased, and the price has risen rapidly in the short - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be negative, but it may reverse under themes such as seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel. If the price gaps up due to geopolitical events, short - selling can be considered [1]. - Soybean Oil: It follows the trend of other oils in the short - term, and waiting for the January USDA report is recommended [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: News of blocked trader purchases and Australian seed imports has led to a large rebound in the single - side price and the 1 - 5 spread, but it is difficult to change the subsequent loosening of the fundamental situation. A decline in sentiment is expected, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [1]. - Cotton: The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, with rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and attention should be paid to factors such as the central government's No. 1 Document in the first quarter of next year, planting - area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a large supply of domestic new - crop sugar, with a strong consensus on short - selling. If the futures price continues to fall, the cost support is strong, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital side [1]. - Corn: The grass - roots grain - selling progress is relatively fast, the current port and downstream inventory levels are still low, and most traders have not started strategic inventory building. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the futures price is expected to have limited decline and then maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [1]. - Soybeans: Attention should be paid to the adjustment in the January USDA report and the impact of Brazilian harvest selling pressure on CNF premiums. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak, while the M03 - M05 spread is expected to be in a positive - arbitrage situation in the short - term, but caution should be exercised due to potential changes in customs policies, soybean auctions, and directional policies [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug - of - war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottom - rebounding, and the downward space of the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward - driving factors in the spot - futures market. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Livestock - Hogs: The spot price has gradually stabilized recently, with demand support. The slaughter weight has not been fully cleared, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the stock index is expected to remain relatively strong as it broke through the previous oscillation range last week. In 2026, the rapid rise phase driven by liquidity and market risk preference may have ended, and the A - share "slow - bull" pattern is entering the second half. With macro - policy support, inflation warming, and capital market policy guidance, the stock index is expected to rise further in 2026 compared to 2025. Futures traders can use the futures discount structure to enhance the winning rate of long - position strategies [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Interest Rates and Bond Markets - DR001 closed at 1.24 with a - 0.21bp change, DR007 at 1.69 with a 9.30bp change, GC001 at 2.04 with a 20.00bp change, and GC007 at 2.05 with a 2.50bp change. SHBOR 3M was at 1.60 with no change, and LPR 5 - year was at 3.50 with no change. The 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese government bonds were at 1.34, 1.61, and 1.86 respectively, with changes of 0.50bp, 1.25bp, and 0.20bp. The 10 - year US Treasury bond was at 4.12 with a - 2.00bp change [3]. - The central bank conducted 4823 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 673 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net investment was 4150 billion yuan. This week (December 29, 2025 - January 4, 2026), 6227 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature [3][4]. Stock Indexes and Futures - The closing prices and changes of major stock indexes: the CSI 300 rose 0.26% to 4651, the SSE 50 rose 0.06% to 3037, the CSI 500 rose 0.38% to 7459, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.04% to 7597. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 21426 billion yuan, a slight increase of 33 billion yuan. Industry sectors showed more declines than increases [5][6]. - The trading volume and position changes of stock index futures: IF volume was 94429 with a - 1.8% change, and its position was 281129 with a 1.9% change; IH volume was 41166 with a 4.2% change, and its position was 88407 with a 1.3% change; IC volume was 117475 with a 4.2% change, and its position was 288847 with a 4.7% change; IM volume was 163327 with a 2.3% change, and its position was 372661 with a 3.0% change [5]. - The current, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts of IF had an average premium of 3.55%, 3.21%, 2.85%, and 3.36% respectively; IH had 0.81%, 0.73%, 0.17%, and 0.71% respectively; IC had 0.50%, 3.91%, 4.77%, and 7.38% respectively; IM had 0.99%, 7.14%, 8.29%, and 10.38% respectively [7].

2025 年 12 月 29 日 星期一 ➢ 每日大市点评 12 月 24 日，周三港股仅交易半天。恒生指数呈现窄幅震荡，最终上升 44 点（0.2%），收报 25,818 点；恒生科技指数 升 10 点（0.2%），收盘报 5,499 点；半天成交 952 亿元。南向资金净流出 11.8 亿元。周三半导体个股走强，据报道称， 中芯国际（981 HK）以对部分产能实施涨价，涨幅约 10%,中芯国际走强，盘中一度上涨 5%。有报道称，明年一月将近 2200 班来往中日的航班取消，导致航空股下跌。 美股方面，上周五因假日走势平静。三大指数窄幅波动，市场情绪受到美国经济韧性和企业盈利预期支撑，但同时假期 因素导致投资者参与度较低。道琼斯指数收盘跌 20 点（0.01%），报 48,710 点；纳斯达克指数跌 20 点（0.1%），报 23,593 点；标普 500 指数跌 2 点，收报 6,929 点。能源板块下跌，国际油价在节后小幅回落，加上市场对全球经济增长 放缓可能抑制能源需求的担忧，埃克森美孚（XOM US）跌 0.1%；雪佛龙（CVX US）跌 0.3%。 行业动态： 汽车板块：禾赛科技（2525 HK） ...

这不是教科书式的意外，这是市场的日常戏码，预期拉高以后，资金会选择兑现，尤其是那些从11月24日开始就探底回升、抱着美联储转向预期躺票的成长 股们，它们涨得够多了，谁还不想落袋为安？ 机构资金高度抱团在少数科技、新能源等前期强势板块轮动，其他板块却持续疲软，这种极致分化让指数难以形成普涨合力，哪怕外面有风，也只是吹到人 群的边沿，中心仍旧冷清。 谁不紧张？市场开始问，美联储会不会因为政治压力偏离控制通胀的目标？一旦这种信任受损，美债的"无风险"光环就会黯淡，美元体系的稳定性也会被打 问号，全球资本流向和风险偏好可能重构，这种不确定性短期内压过了降息带来的利好，难怪市场反应平淡。 别忘了，全球流动性不是美联储单枪匹马主导，日本那头也在归位，日本央行前官员甚至预测到2027年可能有四次加息，这意味着全球"便宜钱"的来源在收 紧，哪怕美联储放水，其他地方收紧也会部分抵消效果，亚太市场资金面面临压力，这个结构性变化比一两次政策动作更值得警惕。 再看基本面，美国科技公司甲骨文发布财报后股价盘后暴跌超11%，这事儿像一枚信号弹，炸开了人们对AI等前期热门板块泡沫的担忧，情绪通过全球市场 传导，迅速波及A股科技板块，说明哪 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Uranium Industry expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company for the year 2025 to be between 1.6 billion and 1.65 billion yuan, representing an increase of 9.70% to 13.13% compared to the projected net profit for 2024 [2] Summary by Category - **Financial Performance** - The projected net profit for 2025 is estimated to be between 1.6 billion and 1.65 billion yuan [2] - This represents a growth of 9.70% to 13.13% compared to the expected net profit for 2024 [2]

格隆汇10月17日｜尽管市场对美国经济基本面愈发担忧，认为AI热潮可能掩盖潜在风险，但华尔街分 析师对美国企业盈利前景却日益乐观。据Yardeni Research追踪的数据，10月华尔街分析师持续上调盈 利预期，使衡量净上调修正占总预期变动比例的指标升至四年来最高水平。标普500指数净盈利修正指 数（NERI）本月上升0.6个百分点，自5月触及28个月低点-7.8%以来已连续五个月上涨。此次反弹的速 度与幅度也引人注目。这五个月的飙升是NERI自2020年12月以来的最大单次改善。NERI数据显示，分 析师对盈利预期的上调正在更广泛地发生，11个板块中有7个的上调修正多于下调，为2024年8月以来最 多，高于8月的5个板块。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，就在美股逼近历史高点之际，分析师对企业盈利的乐观情绪正显露疲软迹象，这意 味着在本财报季，美股涨势可能遭遇阻碍。 花旗一项追踪美国企业盈利预期调整的指数——即分析师上调与下调盈利预期的数量对比——自8月以 来首次持平。与此同时，标普500指数的预期市盈率已达22倍，高于过去十年近19倍的平均水平。 Evercore ISI策略师Julian Emanuel在一份报告中指出，盈利对股价的影响将"将呈现分化且剧烈的态势， 难以成为推动指数上行的催化剂"，他还补充称，当前市场已处于"接近完美定价"的状态。 Calvasina指出："对于标普500指数成分股中的那些市值龙头企业而言，市场对其盈利的情绪正处于关键 转折点。" 另一方面，摩根士丹利的策略师则认为，当前盈利预期调整广度的恶化，与10月通常较弱的季节性趋势 相符。他们在报告中写道："鉴于我们预计2026年企业盈利预期将进一步改善，我们认为当前的调整只 是市场后续上行前的短暂停顿。" 上周，受人工智能领域乐观前景及美国经济稳健表现的推动，美股创下历史新高。但随后，特朗普针对 中国发出的关税威胁扭转了市场情绪。不过，周一美股期货价格呈现反弹趋 ...

格隆汇10月13日｜在美股徘徊于纪录高位之际，分析师对企业盈利的乐观情绪正在降温，显示本轮行情 在财报季中可能遭遇阻力。花旗集团追踪美国企业盈利预期调整的指数（衡量上调与下调预测数量之 比）近期首次自8月以来转为持平。同时，标普500指数的远期市盈率达22倍，高于过去十年平均水平近 19倍。Evercore ISI策略师Julian Emanuel指出，财报季的股价反应预计将"剧烈分化"，难以成为推动指 数上行的催化剂，当前市场估值"几乎已反映完美预期"。RBC资本市场策略师Lori Calvasina表示，与上 季度相比，本季企业超预期盈利的比例预计将放缓，因为关税带来的冲击更大，"对于市值最大的公司 而言，盈利情绪正处在关键转折点。" 来源：格隆汇APP ...

目前美股"对（美国）政府停摆不以为意，更多关注的是企业盈利的乐观预期，以及美联储可能进一步 降息的前景。" *美股三大股指涨跌不一，标普500指数、纳指双双创新高 *AMD收高23.71%，与OpenAI达成算力协议 *政坛动荡持续，法国概念股哀鸿遍野 "目前，股市对（美国）政府停摆不以为意，更多关注的是企业盈利的乐观预期，以及美联储可能进一 步降息的前景，"爱德华兹资产管理公司（Edwards Asset Management）首席投资官罗伯特·爱德华兹 （Robert Edwards）称，"我们认为，因政府停摆引发的任何显著市场回调，都是投资者的'黄金购物 日'机会。即便面临政府停摆和劳动力市场的不确定性，我们仍相信标普500指数有望在年底前突破7000 点。" AMD在图形处理器领域的主要竞争对手英伟达（Nvidia）在消息公布后股价承压。英伟达收跌1.12%。 其他龙头科技股中，特斯拉收涨5.45%，微软涨2.17%，谷歌涨2.07%，奈飞涨0.87%，Meta涨0.72%，亚 马逊涨0.63%，苹果跌0.52%。 热门中概股以涨为主，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收高1%。小牛电动收盘飙高23%。老虎证券涨2 ...