#报告 纽约梅隆银行2026展望：6个关键问题——全球经济平衡、央行路径及影响、美元转折点、美股估值以及AI赢家。None (@None):None ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that South Korean investors have significantly increased their holdings in U.S. stocks, reaching a record $170 billion by the end of October, nearly doubling since the beginning of the year [1] - South Korean retail investors are adopting aggressive trading strategies reminiscent of "Squid Game," heavily investing in high-volatility stocks such as IonQ and Beyond Meat, contributing to heightened market volatility in the U.S. [1] - The demand for ETFs has surged, with notable inflows into U.S. long-term treasury ETFs, leading to a total asset value of approximately 282.54 trillion KRW in domestic ETFs, surpassing the 280 trillion KRW mark [1] Group 2 - According to Goldman Sachs' chief global equity strategist, the high valuation of U.S. stocks is expected to limit future return potential, with the S&P 500 index projected to have an annualized return of only 6.5% over the next decade, while emerging markets may achieve an annualized return of 10.9% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is currently at a historically expensive level but has not yet reached a bubble stage [1] Valuation Discrepancy - The valuation gap between the most expensive and the cheapest stocks in the U.S. market is around the 75th to 80th percentile historically, indicating that only about 25% of historical periods have had a more extreme valuation gap [1] Historical Context - The co-founder of AQR Capital Management, Cliff Asness, has only identified two clear market bubbles in his career: during the internet bubble and around 2019, although he may have been early in his assessment during the latter [1] Long-term Outlook - High valuations do not necessarily indicate an imminent market crash, but they may suggest disappointing long-term returns [1]

Group 1 - The global stock market experienced an overall decline this week, with the US market down by 1.59% and other global markets down by 0.58% [3] - The Asia-Pacific region saw significant volatility, particularly with declines in South Korea and Japan [4] - Chinese assets remained relatively strong, with the A-share CSI All Share Index rising by 0.63% for three consecutive weeks [6] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market outperformed the A-share market, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 1.29% this week [7] - Chinese assets are currently valued slightly lower than the global market average, providing a degree of protection against potential downturns [8] Group 3 - Market fluctuations this week were primarily driven by uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in December [9] - The Federal Reserve did lower rates in October, but the decision for December remains uncertain [10] - Long-term expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve will continue to lower interest rates [11] Group 4 - The US stock market reached a high valuation at the end of October and early November, marking the first instance of overvaluation in the past year [12][13] - Following this, the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indices have seen a valuation correction, returning to a normal but slightly elevated level [14][15] Group 5 - Current valuations in the US stock market are not particularly low, but they do not indicate a significant bubble [16] - Historical comparisons show that the Nasdaq's valuation during the 1990s internet bubble exceeded 100 times, whereas it currently hovers around 30 times [17] Group 6 - There are two types of bear markets: one occurring during economic recessions with slow or declining corporate earnings, and another during periods of normal economic growth with short bear markets [18] - The US stock market has experienced long bear markets following the bursting of bubbles, such as the 2000 internet bubble and the 2008 financial crisis [19][20] Group 7 - Despite the potential for future economic downturns and long bear markets, the US stock market has shown relatively good earnings growth in recent years, primarily experiencing short bear markets [24] - Current valuations in the US stock market are not low enough to present significant buying opportunities [25] Group 8 - A global stock market star rating chart indicates that the market was undervalued during previous periods in 2018, 2020, and 2022, with current ratings around 3.0 stars, suggesting a relatively low valuation [27] - The global stock index can be accessed through various funds, although there are currently no global stock index funds available in mainland China [29] Group 9 - The company has launched a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" that diversifies investments across US, UK, Hong Kong, and A-share indices to track the global stock market [30] - There are limitations on the purchase amounts for overseas market funds, typically capped at around 100 yuan [32] Group 10 - A new edition of the book "The Long-Term Investment Secret" has been released, which has been influential in the investment field for over 30 years [35] - The book emphasizes that stocks are the best long-term investment vehicle and provides extensive data on asset class returns over the past two centuries [36]

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a significant decline on November 4, with all three major indices closing lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.53% to 47,085.24 points, the S&P 500 dropped by 1.17% to 6,771.55 points, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 2.04% to 23,348.64 points [2][3] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index saw a sharp decline of over 4%, heavily impacting the overall performance of the US stock market [1][5] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks mostly declined, with Tesla dropping over 5%, Nvidia down nearly 4%, and Google falling over 2%. Only Apple saw a slight increase of 0.43% [3][4] - Airline stocks collectively suffered, with American Airlines and United Airlines both falling over 5%, and Delta Airlines dropping nearly 5% [4] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector faced significant losses, with Micron Technology falling over 7% and Intel declining by more than 6%. Other companies like ARM, Qualcomm, and Microchip Technology also saw declines exceeding 4% [5] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market experienced a widespread downturn, with Bitcoin briefly falling below the $100,000 mark. Over 47,000 traders were liquidated within a 24-hour period [9][11] - Bitcoin's price recovered slightly to $101,247, while Ethereum saw a decline of approximately 8.7% [9][10] Economic Context - Concerns have been raised by several Wall Street executives regarding the current valuation levels of the US stock market, suggesting a potential significant sell-off in the near future. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon indicated a possible 10% to 20% correction within the next 12 to 24 months [7]

Market Overview - On November 4, US stock markets experienced a significant decline, with all three major indices closing lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.53% to 47,085.24 points, the S&P 500 dropped by 1.17% to 6,771.55 points, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 2.04% to 23,348.64 points [4][5] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index saw a sharp decline of over 4%, negatively impacting the overall performance of US stocks [3][7] - Major technology stocks mostly fell, with Tesla down over 5%, Nvidia down nearly 4%, and Google down over 2%. Only Apple saw a slight increase of 0.43% [5][6] Sector Performance - The airline sector faced collective losses, with American Airlines and United Airlines both dropping over 5%, and Delta Airlines falling nearly 5% [6] - In the semiconductor sector, Micron Technology fell over 7%, Intel dropped more than 6%, and several other companies like ARM and Qualcomm also experienced declines of over 4% [7] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw a widespread decline, with Bitcoin briefly falling below the $100,000 mark. Over 47,000 traders faced liquidation within 24 hours [2][11] - As of the latest update, Bitcoin recovered slightly to above $101,000, while Ethereum's decline was around 8.7% [11][13] Economic Context - The US federal government has been in a shutdown for 35 days, matching the previous record set during Trump's presidency. This shutdown is expected to continue as attempts to pass a temporary funding bill have failed [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street executives warn that despite strong corporate earnings, current valuation levels are concerning, with a potential market correction of over 10% expected in the next 12 to 24 months [1][2]. Valuation Concerns - Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick and Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon express worries about the current valuation levels of U.S. stocks, predicting a possible 10% to 20% correction in the near future [2]. - Solomon notes that while technology stock valuations are fully priced, this does not apply to the entire market [5]. - Capital Group's Mike Gitlin highlights that most investors view market valuations as reasonable to full, with few considering stocks to be cheap [7]. - Pick mentions the risks of policy errors and geopolitical uncertainties in the U.S. market [6]. Market Correction as a Healthy Adjustment - Wall Street executives agree that market corrections should be seen as a normal and healthy development rather than a crisis signal [8]. - Solomon emphasizes that 10% to 15% corrections are common even in positive market cycles and do not alter fundamental capital allocation judgments [9][10]. - Pick encourages investors to welcome the possibility of cyclical corrections, describing them as healthy developments [11][12]. Positive Outlook for Asian Markets - Despite concerns over U.S. stock valuations, both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley maintain an optimistic outlook for Asian markets [3][15]. - Goldman Sachs expects continued interest in China from global capital allocators due to recent positive developments, highlighting China as a major global economy [16]. - Morgan Stanley expresses bullish sentiments towards China, Japan, and India, identifying unique growth narratives in these markets [17]. Pick specifically points out investment opportunities in China's AI, electric vehicles, and biotechnology sectors, as well as Japan's corporate governance reforms and India's infrastructure development [17].

Market Trends & Investment Strategies - UBS addresses ten frequently asked questions from clients regarding investment management [1] - The report covers topics such as whether US stock valuations are too high [1] - It also discusses whether gold can regain its upward momentum [1] - Strategies for managing US dollar exposure are included [1] - Investment management approaches for dealing with geopolitical risks are also addressed [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced significant volatility last week, closing lower amid mixed signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate expectations, with the S&P 500 index down 0.31% and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.65% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding high stock valuations were interpreted as a warning against current market overheating, putting pressure on liquidity-dependent tech stocks [1] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for August rose 0.2% month-over-month, aligning with market expectations and alleviating some market sentiment on Friday [1] - Despite high valuations, the market remains optimistic about potential interest rate cuts in October and December, suggesting continued expectations for accommodative policies from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2: QDII Fund Dynamics - The overall premium level of QDII funds slightly rebounded last week, particularly notable in U.S. broad-based funds, which averaged a 1.68% increase, indicating renewed investor interest in these assets [1] - Several QDII funds, especially those focused on U.S. stocks, have seen adjustments in daily subscription limits, which may impact investor strategies and market liquidity [2] - The performance of various QDII funds will be influenced by macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve policy movements, with a focus on inflation pressures and employment data changes [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the future of AI investment depends on market willingness to finance future dreams, with concerns about whether AI is a bubble or not [1][5] - The U.S. GDP growth for Q2 was revised to 3.8%, indicating strong consumer spending despite a weak job market, with business investment growing at 7.3% [1][2] - The strong consumer activity and stable prices provide the Federal Reserve with confidence to follow through with planned interest rate cuts, with a consensus among decision-makers for a gradual approach [3] Group 2 - Major tech companies are forming partnerships, such as Nvidia investing $100 billion in OpenAI, which creates a closed-loop funding system that boosts market confidence in the AI industry [3][4] - The AI sector has seen over $600 billion in investments over the past two years, but revenue remains low at approximately $35 billion, raising questions about the sustainability of such investments [4] - Historical context suggests that while AI has the potential to transform industries, the market may experience significant volatility, and not all early players will succeed [5]