来源：金十数据 国外 1. 瑞银：上调黄金价格预期，明年有望升至5000美元 瑞银周一将其2026年前三季度的黄金目标价上调至每盎司5000美元，并预计到2026年底，金价将回落至 每盎司4800美元，高于此前预测的每盎司4300美元。该行预计，在实际收益率较低、全球经济担忧持续 存在以及美国国内政策不确定性（尤其是与中期选举和财政压力上升有关）的支撑下，黄金需求在2026 年将稳步上升。瑞银在报告中称："如果政治或金融风险增加，金价可能会攀升至5400美元/盎司（之前 预期为4900美元/盎司）。" 2. HDFC证券：金银处于超买区域，价格将面临进一步的修正压力 在周一高度波动的交易中，现货白银跌幅一度扩大至8%，现货黄金回落至4400美元/盎司下方，HDFC 证券大宗商品高级分析师Saumil Gandhi表示，"黄金和白银价格周一从纪录高位回落，因交易商在创纪 录的涨势后获利了结。"Gandhi进一步指出，黄金和白银在更高的时间周期内都处于超买区域，这是一 个谨慎的信号，表明在涨势延续前需要进行健康回调。他表示："我们预计，随着投资者在月底和年底 调整和重新平衡头寸，金价将面临进一步的修正压力。" 3 ...

Group 1: US Bond Market - The volatility of the US bond market is expected to record its largest annual decline since 2009, with the ICE BofA MOVE index dropping to approximately 59, the lowest level since October 2024 [1] - The index has decreased from around 99 at the end of 2024, indicating one of the most significant annual declines since data began in 1988, second only to the crash in 2009 [1] Group 2: South Korea's Export Growth - Strong growth momentum in South Korea's exports is likely to continue into December, with a median forecast of an 8.3% year-on-year increase, slightly down from 8.4% in November [2] - Imports are expected to rise by 2.4%, resulting in a trade surplus of $10 billion for December, up from a revised surplus of $9.74 billion in the previous month [2] - The growth is supported by strong external demand and a recent trade agreement with the US, which is anticipated to bolster manufacturing output and export growth [2] Group 3: Indonesia Stock Market - Despite foreign capital outflows, Indonesia's stock market is on track to achieve its best performance in eleven years, driven by the increasing influence of local retail investors [2] - The Jakarta Composite Index has risen nearly 22% year-to-date, marking the largest annual increase since 2014 [2] - Retail investors are actively buying speculative stocks, seeking higher returns amid declining bond yields, despite concerns from foreign investors regarding economic growth and government spending risks [2] Group 4: Copper Market - Copper prices are poised to achieve the longest consecutive increase since 2017, with a recent rise of 2.2% to $12,493 per ton, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the market [3] - The increase is driven by expectations of heightened supply chain pressures and the need for buyers to complete purchases before potential tariffs are imposed [3] - Supply issues from major copper-producing countries, including Indonesia, Chile, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, are central to the market dynamics, with warnings of severe copper supply shortages by 2026 [3] Group 5: Precious Metals Market - Spot silver experienced a drop of up to 8%, while gold fell below $4,400 per ounce, as traders took profits after record highs [4] - Both gold and silver are currently in overbought territory, suggesting a need for a healthy correction before any continuation of the upward trend [4] - Analysts expect further price correction for gold as investors adjust and rebalance their positions towards the end of the month and year [4]

在经历了年底强劲反弹后，黄金与白银市场周一遭遇剧烈抛售。由于年末市场流动性稀薄加剧了价格波动，交易员大举获利了结，导致贵金属价 格全线跳水，终结了近期的单边上涨行情。 现货黄金盘中一度下跌5%，创下自10月21日以来的最大单日跌幅，也是今年第二次出现如此幅度的单日暴跌。 白银的跌势更为惨烈，盘中跌幅一度达到11%，创下自2020年9月以来最大的单日跌幅。 两种金属均从刚创下的历史高位大幅回撤，显示出此前迅猛的涨势已引发市场对行情过热的担忧。 投机氛围消退与保证金上调 白银价格的逆转发生在其飙升至每盎司84美元上方数小时之后。此前，来自中国的强劲投资需求一度推高了银价，导致上海现货白银较伦敦价格 的溢价升至每盎司8美元以上，创下历史最大价差纪录。 据彭博援引China Futures Ltd.分析师Wang Yanqing表示："投机氛围非常浓厚。市场围绕现货供应紧张进行炒作，目前的情况有点极端。" 为遏制风险，交易所已开始采取行动。据CME Group Inc.声明，部分Comex白银期货合约的保证金将从周一上调。当交易所提高保证金要求时， 交易员必须投入更多现金来维持头寸，资金不足的投机者被迫减仓或平仓。W ...

【12月29日现货金银价格从纪录高位回落】12月29日，周一交易高度波动，现货白银跌幅一度扩大至 8%，现货黄金回落至4400美元/盎司下方。HDFC证券大宗商品高级分析师称，黄金和白银价格周一是 因交易商在创纪录涨势后获利了结，才从纪录高位回落。该分析师还指出，金银在更高时间周期内处于 超买区域，是谨慎信号，涨势延续前需健康回调。他预计，因投资者在月底和年底调整及重新平衡头 寸，金价将面临进一步修正压力。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

Core Viewpoint - Analysts suggest that after a record surge, silver prices need a breather, indicating a potential market correction ahead [2][3][5] Group 1: Impulsive Surge Detachment from Fundamentals - Despite existing macroeconomic and supply-demand factors that previously drove silver prices up, the current surge is characterized as "impulsive" and largely disconnected from real-world economic conditions [3][9] - The recent price increase appears to exceed what fundamental factors can support, with the rebound occurring in a manner that lacks broad market logic [8][10] - Analysts warn that the U.S. deficit situation has not materially changed, and other assets traditionally seen as hedges against currency devaluation, such as Bitcoin and stock indices, have lost direction [9] Group 2: Historical Data Indicates Weak Future Returns - Historical data suggests that after experiencing a 100% increase in a single year, assets typically face weaker returns in subsequent years [4][12] - Analysts note that while such strong annual returns are rare, they often lead to lackluster performance in the following year, indicating potential challenges ahead for silver [12] - Recommendations include selling silver and large tech stocks as investors approach 2026, while maintaining positions in gold for those seeking to hedge against currency devaluation [13] Group 3: Technical Indicators Show Overbought Conditions - Technical analysis indicates that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for silver has reached 68, nearing overbought territory, suggesting a potential price correction [14] - The 50-day moving average for silver is currently above the 200-day moving average, reinforcing the notion of an overbought state [14] - Analysts recommend that investors consider locking in profits and waiting for a market pullback before re-entering [15]

Group 1 - The current trading price of London gold is above $4,335, with a reported price of $4,341.94 per ounce, reflecting an increase of 0.93% [1] - The highest price reached was $4,347.10 per ounce, while the lowest was $4,297.39 per ounce, indicating a short-term oscillating trend for gold [1] Group 2 - Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee suggested a cautious approach, advocating for waiting for more information before considering further interest rate cuts [2] - Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester emphasized the need to maintain sufficiently high interest rates to continue applying downward pressure on inflation, contributing to rising U.S. Treasury yields and stabilizing the dollar index at 98.44 points [2] - The employment data environment remains unclear, with key reports for November and parts of October delayed due to the government shutdown, expected to be released on December 16 [2] Group 3 - After reaching a low of $3,886.51, gold prices have rebounded and are currently near the high of $4,353.36 [3] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen to around 72, entering the traditional overbought territory, indicating strong short-term price momentum but also some technical correction pressure [3] - The MACD indicator shows both DIFF and DEA lines above the zero axis, with the MACD histogram remaining positive, suggesting that the medium-term bullish trend has not fundamentally changed [3]

周二，白银在从历史高点回落，关键技术指标显示，为期六天的反弹已将其推入超买区域；黄金在前一交易日触及六周高位后也跌超1%。 早盘，白银一度下跌2.4%。交易员一直押注供应持续紧张以及美联储将再次降息，这对无收益的贵金属是利好。然而，14日相对强弱指数（RSI）显示，近 期的投机狂热可能来得太快、太猛了，读数超过70表明动能过热。 盛宝银行的大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen表示，这推动了风险情绪的回暖，从而稳住了市场并引发了一些获利了结。他补充说，白银正在经历"自然回调"， 但只要价格守住每盎司54.5至55美元，大趋势就依然完好。 因市场押注白银供应将持续紧张，白银在前两个交易日上涨了超过8%。自从10月份创纪录数量的金属流入伦敦以缓解历史性的挤仓以来，其他交易中心也 面临压力。 道明证券的高级大宗商品策略师Daniel Ghali在一份报告中表示："白银现在的走势已经超出了理性的动能范畴。"他指出，"所有类别的需求预期都在下降， 使得投资需求成为今天的主要驱动力"，并引用了伦敦场外交易市场实物交易疲软作为证据。 金银比也跌至一年多来的最低点，这是白银"跑得太快"的另一个指标。交易员有时将这种极端情况视为 ...

Group 1 - The Japanese stock market is experiencing a significant rise, with some market indicators approaching levels seen before last year's crash, driven by the US-Japan trade agreement pushing indices to historical highs [1] - Concerns are raised about the current market's vulnerability, as technical indicators show similarities to the situation before last year's sell-off, particularly with the Tokyo Stock Exchange index (TSE) reaching a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) of approximately 79, indicating potential overbought conditions [1] - The TSE index is currently more than 5% above its 25-day moving average, a deviation historically associated with market corrections, as seen in September 2021 and March 2022 [4] Group 2 - The recent rise in the TSE index has not been accompanied by an increase in trading volume, suggesting a lack of strong market confidence [7] - As the summer season approaches and trading volume decreases, the market may face volatility following the rapid increase, with many companies likely to adopt cautious outlooks during the earnings season due to tariff impacts [10] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio of the TSE index has reached 15.7 times, nearing the 15.87 times level seen before last August's decline, although it remains cheaper compared to US stocks [10]

Group 1: U.S. Stock Market Performance - The U.S. stock indices closed higher on Friday, with the non-farm employment data for May exceeding expectations, alleviating recession fears [1] - The S&P 500 index surpassed the 6000-point mark for the first time since February 26, with year-to-date gains of 2.02% for the S&P 500, 1.13% for the Nasdaq, and 0.51% for the Dow Jones [2] Group 2: Diverging Opinions on Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategist, Lakos Bujas, reversed his previous bearish outlook, now predicting the S&P 500 will close at 6000 points this year, citing a potential short squeeze and increased buying from institutional investors [5] - Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett issued a warning that the global stock market, after reaching new highs, is approaching a technical "sell" signal, indicating a potential market correction [5][6] Group 3: Global Capital Flows and Asian Market Attraction - In May, foreign investors bought approximately $10.6 billion worth of Asian stocks, marking the largest net inflow in 18 months [12][13] - Goldman Sachs raised its earnings growth forecast for the Asia-Pacific region, excluding Japan, to 9%, driven by stronger macroeconomic growth in China and the U.S. [14] - Major financial institutions, including Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and HSBC, are optimistic about China, citing valuation advantages and low investor positioning in Chinese stocks [15][16][17][18]

Group 1 - Global stock markets are approaching a technical "sell" signal after reaching historical highs, with a warning from Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett about the risk of a market collapse due to excessive investor enthusiasm [1][2] - Approximately 84% of national stock indices are above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with a threshold of 88% triggering preset sell conditions [2] - Year-to-date, global equity funds have attracted around $515 billion in inflows, potentially marking the second-highest record in history, while cash funds saw an influx of $94.8 billion in the past week, indicating a shift towards safer assets [2]