周四，东证指数14天相对强弱指数（RSI）约为79，超过预示市场可能进入超买区域的阈值。该基准指数去年7月也曾处于这一区 间，随后不到一个月便遭遇抛售。 日本股市的持续上涨已推动部分市场指标逼近去年崩盘前的水平，此前美日贸易协定将股指推至历史新高。 "当市场开始如此快速上涨时，我确实认为需要警惕去年8月的情况重演，"安本日本有限公司股票主管荒川久志（Hisashi Arakawa） 表示，"虽然本轮涨势并非由日元驱动，但我一定会密切关注去年夏季出现的那些危险水平。" 去年8月，日本央行意外加息、行长植田和男的鹰派言论以及美国经济担忧共同导致日股暴跌。尽管日本央行此后成功提高了政策利 率而未重蹈覆辙，且宏观环境已转变为以美国关税政策为主要驱动因素，但部分技术指标显示日股当前脆弱程度与去年抛售前夕如 出一辙——当时东证指数同样处于历史高位。 乐天证券数据显示，周四东证指数较25日均线高出逾5%，这一偏离幅度历来预示着市场调整——2021年9月和2022年3月出现类似偏 离后，市场均出现下跌。 "随着8月'夏季淡季'临近、成交量萎缩，市场在快速上涨后可能面临波动，"MCP资产管理日本策略师大冢理恵子（Rieko O ...

Group 1: U.S. Stock Market Performance - The U.S. stock indices closed higher on Friday, with the non-farm employment data for May exceeding expectations, alleviating recession fears [1] - The S&P 500 index surpassed the 6000-point mark for the first time since February 26, with year-to-date gains of 2.02% for the S&P 500, 1.13% for the Nasdaq, and 0.51% for the Dow Jones [2] Group 2: Diverging Opinions on Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategist, Lakos Bujas, reversed his previous bearish outlook, now predicting the S&P 500 will close at 6000 points this year, citing a potential short squeeze and increased buying from institutional investors [5] - Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett issued a warning that the global stock market, after reaching new highs, is approaching a technical "sell" signal, indicating a potential market correction [5][6] Group 3: Global Capital Flows and Asian Market Attraction - In May, foreign investors bought approximately $10.6 billion worth of Asian stocks, marking the largest net inflow in 18 months [12][13] - Goldman Sachs raised its earnings growth forecast for the Asia-Pacific region, excluding Japan, to 9%, driven by stronger macroeconomic growth in China and the U.S. [14] - Major financial institutions, including Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and HSBC, are optimistic about China, citing valuation advantages and low investor positioning in Chinese stocks [15][16][17][18]

Group 1 - Global stock markets are approaching a technical "sell" signal after reaching historical highs, with a warning from Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett about the risk of a market collapse due to excessive investor enthusiasm [1][2] - Approximately 84% of national stock indices are above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with a threshold of 88% triggering preset sell conditions [2] - Year-to-date, global equity funds have attracted around $515 billion in inflows, potentially marking the second-highest record in history, while cash funds saw an influx of $94.8 billion in the past week, indicating a shift towards safer assets [2]