Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic bond market continued to be bullish, mainly driven by the loose inter - bank funds. The Fed cut interest rates as expected and restarted balance - sheet expansion, with a neutral dot - plot result [8]. - The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds across all tenors declined, mostly by around 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the active 10 - year treasury bond 250016 was reported at 1.83%, down 0.5bp [9]. - The inter - bank liquidity further eased. There were 180.8 billion yuan in maturities in the open market today, and the central bank injected 118.6 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 6.22 billion yuan. The inter - bank funds sentiment index was stable, and the funds trended towards looseness [10]. - The domestic fundamentals have weakened marginally since mid - year, especially the accelerated decline in the investment sector still poses a significant drag on credit expansion. The Politburo meeting in December set the tone of "continuing the moderately loose monetary policy", so the risk of a significant adjustment or a bear market in the bond market should be limited. However, the policy - makers mentioned cross - cycle adjustment again, indicating that loose policies may not be implemented in the short term. Coupled with institutional concentrated selling triggered by the new public - fund regulations, market short - term volatility has increased [11]. - From a valuation perspective, as the bond market has adjusted continuously, interest rates are returning to a reasonable pricing level. The deviation from the policy rate is narrowing, and the basis has rebounded above the historical median, indicating that the current market is not pricing in next year's interest - rate cuts, and futures have slightly over - adjusted compared to spot bonds. If market sentiment improves in the future, futures have some room for catch - up growth. In the short term, inflation remains weak, with PPI weaker than expected, suggesting that the pressure of oversupply is still high. The fundamentals still support the bond market. Overseas, the Fed's balance - sheet expansion is faster than expected, which is expected to maintain a loose overseas liquidity environment. The domestic expectation of monetary easing has not yet heated up, waiting for further policy guidance, and the strength of allocation funds remains cautious [12] Industry News - He Lifeng, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice - Premier of the State Council, met with Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund. They exchanged views on the current international economic and financial situation and continued cooperation. He Lifeng said that China's economy has been performing steadily and well this year, and China is confident and capable of maintaining sustainable and healthy economic development [13]. - He Yadong, Spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce, said that the Ministry of Commerce will take the full - scale customs - clearance operation as an opportunity to vigorously promote institutional opening - up and strive to build the Hainan Free Trade Port into an important gateway leading China's opening - up in the new era [13]. - He Yadong mentioned in a regular press conference that China and the EU held a trade - remedy dialogue this week and will continue consultations next week. The China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products proposed a solution representing the industry's overall stance, and the two sides have achieved certain results through multiple rounds of consultations [14]. - At a regular press conference, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun responded to a question about Mexico's new import - export tariff bill. He emphasized that going against the trend of economic globalization and practicing protectionism is harmful to both parties. He hoped that Mexico would correct its wrong practices and work together with China to maintain the overall situation of bilateral economic and trade relations [14] Data Overview Treasury Bond Futures Quotes - The trading data of treasury bond futures on December 11, including contract information such as TL2512, TL2603, etc., covering pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open - interest change [6] Money Market - The inter - bank funds further loosened. The central bank achieved a net withdrawal of 6.22 billion yuan in the open market. The weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits decreased by 1.14bp to 1.2768%, the 7 - day rate fluctuated around 1.45%, and the 1 - year AAA certificate - of - deposit rate fluctuated between 1.64% and 1.66% [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decision by the Mexican Senate to implement new import and export tariffs on certain products from various Asian countries, including China, ranging from 5% to 50% starting next year. The Chinese government expresses concern over this move, labeling it as a step towards protectionism and urging Mexico to correct this approach to maintain healthy bilateral trade relations [1]. Group 1 - The Mexican Senate has passed a new tariff law that will impose tariffs of 5% to 50% on products from several Asian countries, including China, starting next year [1]. - The Chinese government, represented by spokesperson Guo Jia Kun, has responded to this development, emphasizing the negative impact of protectionism and urging Mexico to reconsider its decision [1]. - The Chinese government advocates for cooperation to maintain the overall stability of bilateral economic and trade relations between China and Mexico [1].

Core Viewpoint - The "reciprocal tariff policy" proposed by Trump is expected to significantly impact China's private and small to medium-sized enterprises, leading to increased operational costs, reduced overseas orders, and potential job losses due to industry chain shifts [1][3][4] Group 1: Impact on Enterprises - High tariffs will increase operational costs for companies, leading to a substantial reduction in overseas orders and potential relocation of industry chains, which may result in employment and livelihood issues [1][3] - Companies are advised to diversify their sales channels, enhance product quality, and increase research and development efforts to turn challenges into opportunities [1][3][4] - The impact of the tariff policy is expected to be particularly severe on small and medium-sized enterprises, which may struggle to adapt quickly [12][13] Group 2: Government Recommendations - Government should implement targeted policies for affected industries and regions, avoiding a one-size-fits-all approach [1][6] - Specific measures include developing domestic markets, boosting consumption, and providing tax relief and export tax rebates to support enterprises [1][5][6] - Local governments are encouraged to facilitate connections between export companies and non-U.S. markets [5][6] Group 3: Industry Responses - Many companies are exploring market diversification, with plans to enter emerging markets such as ASEAN, Europe, and Latin America [3][4] - A significant number of businesses are considering shifting from export to domestic sales or exploring other overseas markets due to increased tariff burdens [4][5] - The overall sentiment among businesses is cautiously optimistic, with many already adjusting their operational strategies in response to the tariff changes [4][5] Group 4: Economic Projections - The tariff policy is estimated to impact China's GDP by approximately 1.6 percentage points, with significant effects on employment, particularly in export-oriented sectors [7][11] - The potential loss of 6 to 8 million jobs is anticipated due to the ripple effects of reduced exports [7][11] - The long-term trend indicates a shift towards de-coupling between the U.S. and China, necessitating a focus on domestic consumption and resilience in supply chains [13][14]

博鳌亚洲论坛原秘书长、中国入世谈判首席代表龙永图 博鳌亚洲论坛原秘书长、中国入世谈判首席代表龙永图出席梧桐夜话，并就Deepseek等热点话题发表了自己的看法。他表示，DeepSeek的横空出世激发了 社会大众对于中国经济的乐观情绪，"新的科学技术正在非常深刻的改变全球经济格局，也给中国经济带来新的希望。而且，新的科学技术是不以人的意志 为转移的，美国政治干扰也不可能，这是应对逆经济全球化最重要的一个力量。" 3月26日，凤凰网财经联合长江商学院共同举办"2025博鳌•凤凰网梧桐夜话暨长江商学院之夜"交流晚宴，活动盛邀业界知名人士及权威专家共聚一堂， 就"AI 革命与全球经济新格局"这一主题进行讨论与分享。 【 热门视频推荐 】 点击在 看 持续关注↓↓↓ 那么，该如何应对当今环境下的逆全球化，如何应对特朗普带来的不确定性？龙永图认为要做好两点：一是依靠内需，二是经济结构改革，"只能依靠我们 自己，把自己的事情做好，把主动权掌握在自己手里。" ...