Group 1: Report Date and Title - The report is dated March 4, 2026, and focuses on tin, suggesting to pay attention to macro - sentiment [1] Group 2: Analysts' Information - The analysts are Liu Yuxuan (Investment Consulting Qualification No.: Z0020476) and Tang Wenhao (Futures Practicing Qualification No.: F03152608) [2] Group 3: Fundamental Data Futures and Spot Prices - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 394,890 with a daily decline of 12.00%, and the night - session closing price was 387,840 with a decline of 8.31%. The LME Tin 3M electronic disk closed at 49,785 with a decline of 5.77% [2] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 464,400, an increase of 1,501 from the previous day, and the open interest was 39,535, a decrease of 10,412. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 1,444, an increase of 742, and the open interest was 21,561, an increase of 75 [2] Inventory and Warehouse - Receipt Data - The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 11,316, a decrease of 215. The inventory of LME Tin was 7,730, an increase of 260, and the cancelled - warrant ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2] Spot and Price - Spread Data - The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 412,950, a decrease of 21,050 from the previous day; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 406,600, a decrease of 27,000. The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread remained unchanged at 19. The spread of the near - month contract to the consecutive - first contract was 197,780, a decrease of 46,950, and the spot - to - futures main - contract spread was 11,710, an increase of 22,120 [2] Industrial Chain Price Data - The price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 396,950, a decrease of 21,050; the price of 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi was 400,950, a decrease of 21,050. The price of 63A solder bar was 272,750, a decrease of 13,500, and the price of 60A solder bar was 260,750, a decrease of 13,000 [2] Group 4: Macro and Industry News - The conflict between the US and Iran reignited "inflation concerns", and the probability of the Fed's second interest rate cut this year dropped to 50%. Wang Yi had a phone call with the Israeli Foreign Minister. Saudi Aramco is exploring a plan to export oil via the Red Sea to avoid the Strait of Hormuz. The stock markets of Japan and South Korea tumbled [2][4] Group 5: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of tin is -1, with a range of [-2, 2], where -2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [3]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have maintained a level around $5,000 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 22%, marking the best start to a year since 1980. Despite multiple supportive factors for gold prices, analysts caution that unexpected resilience in the global economy may weaken safe-haven demand, potentially limiting future price increases [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Ole Hansen, the head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, indicated that speculative buying could push gold prices up to $5,500 per ounce. He identified three main concerns driving current gold prices: uncontrolled fiscal debt expansion, a weakening dollar due to the decline of American exceptionalism, and geopolitical uncertainties exacerbated by unpredictable presidential policies. However, he emphasized that these risk factors have not yet materialized significantly [1]. - The U.S. debt continues to grow, but the market is absorbing risk premiums through a steepening yield curve. Although the dollar is weakening, it has not collapsed, and multiple geopolitical fronts have not escalated into destructive conflicts. Hansen believes that while safe-haven demand may cool marginally, there is little basis for a significant price adjustment, suggesting that gold is more likely to enter a consolidation phase rather than a deep correction [1]. Latest Spot Gold Market Analysis - The expectation of peace may create short-term pressure on gold prices, but the market is more inclined to view this as a buying opportunity rather than a signal for a trend reversal. Additionally, the Trump administration's preference for a weaker dollar continues to exert pressure, with the dollar index experiencing a technical rebound after hitting a four-year low of 95.57, yet this does not alter the mid-term downtrend, providing solid underlying support for gold [3]. - Given the significant uncertainties surrounding the potential geopolitical agreement and the possible trust deficit, gold's safe-haven attributes will provide strong resilience against declines, allowing it to maintain price stability during a long-term bull market [3].

Core Viewpoint - The new round of tariffs introduced by President Trump is having a profound impact on the global economy, leading to a slowdown in U.S. imports and raising concerns about global growth and inflation [1] Group 1: Currency Impact - The U.S. dollar index has dropped 8.4% year-to-date, nearing its lowest level since spring 2022, reflecting the dollar's poor performance against six major currencies [1] - The weakening of the dollar is attributed not only to Trump's trade policies but also to a new "revenge tax" proposal in the recent U.S. fiscal legislation, which may further undermine international investors' confidence in the U.S. market [1] Group 2: Global Capital Flows - The "revenge tax" could suppress global surplus capital inflow into U.S. capital markets, negatively impacting the dollar [2] - Despite a weak Eurozone economy and recent interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank, the euro has appreciated 11% against the dollar this year, indicating a broader trend of strengthening global currencies [2] Group 3: Long-term Challenges - The softening dollar may benefit U.S. exporters by enhancing their international competitiveness, but it poses long-term challenges for U.S. financial markets [2] - The U.S. trade deficit relies heavily on foreign capital inflows, which support the stock market and keep Treasury yields low; maintaining these inflows is crucial for the dollar's long-term stability [2]