燃料油日报 | 2025-08-27 策略 高硫方面：短期震荡偏强，中期面临原油端压制 低硫方面：短期震荡偏强，中期面临原油端压制 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 地缘不确定性仍存，盘面震荡运行 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.07%，报2880元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.23%，报3529 元/吨。 俄乌和谈实质性进展有限，叠加上周鲍威尔释放的一些偏鸽信号，油市短期情绪走强，并带动能源板块商品反弹。 考虑到地缘与宏观的不确定性以及原油平衡表未来转松的预期，油价上方空间或有限。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，高硫燃料油处于结构调整与市场再平衡的阶段，前期供应压力有所缓和，但上行驱动 仍不明显。在发电终端消费旺季结束后，市场还将面临中东燃料油出口增加的压力。此外，由于对交割资源受阻、 仓单压力缓和的预期，上周五以来FU估值明显修复，盘面结构走强。但昨日有2.66万吨新仓单注册，内外盘价差 与月差从低位反弹后依然面临阻力。 低硫燃料油方面，当前市场压力有限，国产量维持低位，海外供应有再度收紧的态势，外盘月差结构小幅走强。 中期视角下，低硫燃料油依然面临需求份额被替代、剩 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - This week, the absolute price of crude oil dropped to $65 per barrel for Brent. The monthly spreads of crude oil in the three markets slightly declined. Geopolitical uncertainties resurfaced due to the possible misunderstanding of Russia's cease - fire requirements by the US envoy and Iran's actions. Fundamentally, global oil inventories increased this week, with a slight reduction in US commercial crude oil and refined products inventories. After the crude oil price decline, global refinery profits rebounded. The near - term crude oil fundamentals are volatile. Supply faces a decline risk due to sanctions on Iran and Russia, OPEC+ oil exports are expected to accelerate, and refinery operations in the third quarter are expected to be stronger than anticipated, supporting the monthly spread. However, the peak of the global supply - demand fundamentals has passed, and the absolute price of crude oil is expected to remain in a volatile pattern, with a forecasted decline to $55 - 60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy and the non - OPEC production start - up rhythm [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oil Price Data - From August 8 to August 14, 2025, WTI crude oil price increased by $1.31, BRENT by $1.21, and DUBAI by $0.76. Other related prices such as NYMEX RB, domestic gasoline, and domestic diesel also had corresponding changes [3]. 2. Daily News - The "Putin - Trump meeting" is set to be held at an Alaska US military base, with no plan to sign a results document. The US Treasury issued a waiver for the meeting. The uncertainty of the US - Russia peace negotiation increases the bullish risk premium for oil prices. Indian state - owned refineries are inquiring about purchasing Russian oil as the discount improves. Despite increased drone attacks on Russian refineries, Russia's oil product exports increased in early August, with fuel oil shipments reaching the highest level since the conflict began, offsetting the decline in diesel shipments [4][5]. 3. Regional Fundamentals - The EIA report shows that in the week of August 8, US crude oil exports increased by 259,000 barrels per day to 3.577 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production increased by 43,000 barrels to 13.327 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.036 million barrels to 427 million barrels (a 0.72% increase), and strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 226,000 barrels to 403.2 million barrels (a 0.06% increase). From July 25 - 31, the operating rate of major refineries in China slightly increased, and that of Shandong local refineries remained basically flat. China's refinery output showed a decline in gasoline and an increase in diesel, with corresponding changes in inventories and profits [5].

Core Viewpoint - Nornickel anticipates a decline in financial performance for the year due to low metal prices, high interest rates, a strong ruble, and global trade disputes [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Nornickel expects significant negative impacts on financial indicators due to high geopolitical uncertainty, escalating trade disputes, risks of global economic slowdown, and tightening monetary policies [1] - The company faces challenges from a strong ruble, low metal prices, inflation, and high debt servicing costs [1] - The Russian central bank's key interest rate of 20% is seen as a major drag on the economy, leading to a substantial slowdown this year [1] Group 2: Investment and Dividends - Difficult conditions have forced Nornickel to reduce investments and postpone certain projects [1] - The board of directors has recommended not to pay dividends for the 2024 performance, stating that increasing debt levels to pay dividends is inappropriate [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - Nornickel's vice president, Anton Berlin, predicts that the palladium market will remain balanced in 2025, while the nickel market will be oversupplied [2] - The automotive industry, a major consumer of these metals, is still in crisis [2] - Berlin criticized Indonesia for flooding the global market with cheap nickel, harming other producers, and noted that approximately 40% of nickel producers are currently operating at a loss [2] - Nornickel aims to ensure that global trade disputes do not affect its export volumes and intends to sell all of its produced products [2]

Group 1 - The domestic energy chemical sector showed positive performance on May 20, with fuel oil futures experiencing fluctuations and a price increase of 1.91% [1] - Japan's commercial aviation fuel inventory decreased to 750,500 kiloliters as of May 17, down from 761,400 kiloliters, indicating a reduction of 10,912 kiloliters [1] - Egypt's state-owned oil company announced a demand for 2 million tons of fuel oil for delivery in May and June, which, if fulfilled, would exceed seasonal levels [1] Group 2 - Southwest Futures noted that global trade demand is recovering, leading to a stronger fuel oil price after tax friction agreements are signed, supported by declining inventories in ARA, Singapore, and Fujairah [1] - According to Ruida Futures, the U.S. Treasury market instability may increase uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions, including potential Israeli strikes on Iran, could impact oil prices [2] - The fuel oil market is experiencing cautious procurement from downstream sectors, with a slight improvement in trading atmosphere [2]