Group 1 - Precious metals market rebounds strongly after a brief correction, with silver reaching a 14-year high and leading the gains in the gold and silver sector [1] - As of 11:00 AM, New York silver rose by 1.50% to $43.58 per ounce, while Shanghai silver surged by 3.07% to ¥10,243 per kilogram [1] - Gold also experienced upward movement, with New York gold futures increasing by 0.43% to $3,721.8 per ounce, and Shanghai gold rising by 1.25% to ¥840.16 per gram [1] Group 2 - Silver's price increase is driven by speculative sentiment and growing industrial demand in sectors such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and semiconductors, maintaining a supply-demand imbalance [1] - The gold-silver ratio in the domestic market is around 83, while the international market is approximately 85, indicating potential for silver price correction as it remains above the historical range of 60-80 [1] - Multiple factors, including speculative sentiment, industrial fundamentals, interest rate cuts, and geopolitical uncertainties, are expected to enhance silver's price elasticity compared to gold [1] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance, as indicated by officials, reinforces market expectations for continued monetary easing, supporting precious metal prices [2] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are escalating, significantly boosting global market risk aversion and providing strong support for gold and silver prices [2] - The ongoing restructuring of military alliances in the region and the anticipated long-term conflicts are likely to sustain demand for gold and silver as traditional safe-haven assets [2] Group 4 - Overall, expectations of monetary policy easing, political and geopolitical uncertainties, along with bullish sentiment from institutions, are driving upward momentum in gold and silver prices [3] - Technically, key support for New York gold has risen to around $3,600, with potential to reach $3,800, while silver, benefiting from both financial and industrial demand, aims for a target of $45 after breaking through $43 [3] - Market corrections are viewed as opportunities for positioning, with gold and silver expected to remain in a long-term bullish trend [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical uncertainty persists, and the market fluctuates. The fuel oil futures show a short - term upward trend due to the short - term strengthening of the oil market sentiment, but the upside space of oil prices is limited considering geopolitical and macro uncertainties and the expected future loosening of the crude oil balance sheet [1]. - High - sulfur fuel oil is in the stage of structural adjustment and market re - balancing. The supply pressure has eased, but the upward driving force is not obvious. After the peak consumption season for power generation, it will face the pressure of increased Middle East exports. The FU valuation has been repaired, but new warehouse receipts and price differentials still face resistance [1]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil currently has limited market pressure, with low domestic production and a tightening overseas supply trend. In the medium - term, it faces the contradiction of demand share substitution and excess capacity, so the upward resistance is also large [1]. - Both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to be volatile and slightly strong in the short - term and face crude - oil - end suppression in the medium - term [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.07% at 2,880 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.23% at 3,529 yuan/ton [1]. - The limited progress in Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the dovish signals from Powell last week strengthened the short - term sentiment in the oil market, driving the rebound of energy - sector commodities. However, the upside space of oil prices is limited [1]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: The supply pressure has eased, but the upward driving force is not obvious. After the power - generation consumption peak season, it will face the pressure of increased Middle East exports. The FU valuation has been repaired, but 26,600 tons of new warehouse receipts were registered, and price differentials still face resistance [1]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The current market pressure is limited, with low domestic production and a tightening overseas supply trend. In the medium - term, it faces the contradiction of demand share substitution and excess capacity [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Volatile and slightly strong in the short - term, facing crude - oil - end suppression in the medium - term [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Volatile and slightly strong in the short - term, facing crude - oil - end suppression in the medium - term [2]. - Cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, and options: No specific strategies are provided [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - This week, the absolute price of crude oil dropped to $65 per barrel for Brent. The monthly spreads of crude oil in the three markets slightly declined. Geopolitical uncertainties resurfaced due to the possible misunderstanding of Russia's cease - fire requirements by the US envoy and Iran's actions. Fundamentally, global oil inventories increased this week, with a slight reduction in US commercial crude oil and refined products inventories. After the crude oil price decline, global refinery profits rebounded. The near - term crude oil fundamentals are volatile. Supply faces a decline risk due to sanctions on Iran and Russia, OPEC+ oil exports are expected to accelerate, and refinery operations in the third quarter are expected to be stronger than anticipated, supporting the monthly spread. However, the peak of the global supply - demand fundamentals has passed, and the absolute price of crude oil is expected to remain in a volatile pattern, with a forecasted decline to $55 - 60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy and the non - OPEC production start - up rhythm [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oil Price Data - From August 8 to August 14, 2025, WTI crude oil price increased by $1.31, BRENT by $1.21, and DUBAI by $0.76. Other related prices such as NYMEX RB, domestic gasoline, and domestic diesel also had corresponding changes [3]. 2. Daily News - The "Putin - Trump meeting" is set to be held at an Alaska US military base, with no plan to sign a results document. The US Treasury issued a waiver for the meeting. The uncertainty of the US - Russia peace negotiation increases the bullish risk premium for oil prices. Indian state - owned refineries are inquiring about purchasing Russian oil as the discount improves. Despite increased drone attacks on Russian refineries, Russia's oil product exports increased in early August, with fuel oil shipments reaching the highest level since the conflict began, offsetting the decline in diesel shipments [4][5]. 3. Regional Fundamentals - The EIA report shows that in the week of August 8, US crude oil exports increased by 259,000 barrels per day to 3.577 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production increased by 43,000 barrels to 13.327 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.036 million barrels to 427 million barrels (a 0.72% increase), and strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 226,000 barrels to 403.2 million barrels (a 0.06% increase). From July 25 - 31, the operating rate of major refineries in China slightly increased, and that of Shandong local refineries remained basically flat. China's refinery output showed a decline in gasoline and an increase in diesel, with corresponding changes in inventories and profits [5].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement further monetary easing, with an 80.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, driven by disappointing employment data and pressure from the Trump administration [1][2] - Gold is positioned to break out of its current trading range due to dual support from rising rate cut expectations and geopolitical uncertainties, with a recommendation to buy on dips [2][3] - Long-term prospects for gold remain positive due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, increasing de-globalization, and a weakening dollar, which are expected to support central banks' continued net purchases of gold [2][3] Group 2 - The demand for gold is anticipated to rise as global trade uncertainties and concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence grow, potentially leading to a significant rebound in gold prices [3] - WisdomTree forecasts that gold could reach $4000 per ounce by Q1 2026, driven by the erosion of the U.S. reputation as a reliable trading partner and the increasing demand for hard assets [3]

Core Viewpoint - Nornickel anticipates a decline in financial performance for the year due to low metal prices, high interest rates, a strong ruble, and global trade disputes [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Nornickel expects significant negative impacts on financial indicators due to high geopolitical uncertainty, escalating trade disputes, risks of global economic slowdown, and tightening monetary policies [1] - The company faces challenges from a strong ruble, low metal prices, inflation, and high debt servicing costs [1] - The Russian central bank's key interest rate of 20% is seen as a major drag on the economy, leading to a substantial slowdown this year [1] Group 2: Investment and Dividends - Difficult conditions have forced Nornickel to reduce investments and postpone certain projects [1] - The board of directors has recommended not to pay dividends for the 2024 performance, stating that increasing debt levels to pay dividends is inappropriate [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - Nornickel's vice president, Anton Berlin, predicts that the palladium market will remain balanced in 2025, while the nickel market will be oversupplied [2] - The automotive industry, a major consumer of these metals, is still in crisis [2] - Berlin criticized Indonesia for flooding the global market with cheap nickel, harming other producers, and noted that approximately 40% of nickel producers are currently operating at a loss [2] - Nornickel aims to ensure that global trade disputes do not affect its export volumes and intends to sell all of its produced products [2]

Group 1 - The domestic energy chemical sector showed positive performance on May 20, with fuel oil futures experiencing fluctuations and a price increase of 1.91% [1] - Japan's commercial aviation fuel inventory decreased to 750,500 kiloliters as of May 17, down from 761,400 kiloliters, indicating a reduction of 10,912 kiloliters [1] - Egypt's state-owned oil company announced a demand for 2 million tons of fuel oil for delivery in May and June, which, if fulfilled, would exceed seasonal levels [1] Group 2 - Southwest Futures noted that global trade demand is recovering, leading to a stronger fuel oil price after tax friction agreements are signed, supported by declining inventories in ARA, Singapore, and Fujairah [1] - According to Ruida Futures, the U.S. Treasury market instability may increase uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions, including potential Israeli strikes on Iran, could impact oil prices [2] - The fuel oil market is experiencing cautious procurement from downstream sectors, with a slight improvement in trading atmosphere [2]