Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On March 30, platinum and palladium prices opened low and closed high, showing a strong and volatile trend. PT2606 rose 2.66% to 497.50 yuan/gram, and PD2606 rose 0.61% to 357.30 yuan/gram [6]. - With the market's increasing concern about the inflation risk caused by high oil prices, the U.S. stock market fell, and the U.S. Treasury yield dropped from its high, supporting platinum and palladium prices. However, the tense situation between the U.S. and Iran, high geopolitical uncertainties, and high oil prices and the U.S. dollar index may limit the upside space of platinum and palladium [6]. - Eskom, South Africa's national power company, will raise electricity prices starting from April 1, which is expected to increase the energy costs in the mining and smelting of platinum and palladium. The supply elasticity at the mineral end may further tighten, providing medium - to long - term support for platinum and palladium prices [6]. - It is expected that platinum and palladium will likely maintain a range - bound and volatile trend in the short term. After the Middle East geopolitical situation becomes relatively clear, investors can consider going long on platinum unilaterally at low prices or continue to hold the [long platinum, short palladium] strategy [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Prices (Yuan/gram) - Platinum futures main contract closing price: The current value is 497.5, the previous value is 493.05, with a daily increase of 0.90% [4]. - Spot platinum (99.95%): The current value is 484, the previous value is 475, with a daily increase of 1.89% [4]. - Platinum basis (spot - futures): The current value is - 13.5, the previous value is - 18.05, with a daily change of - 25.21% [4]. - Lithium futures main contract closing price: The current value is 357.3, the previous value is 358.2, with a daily decrease of 0.25% [4]. - Spot lithium (99.95%): The current value is 354, the previous value is 348.5, with a daily increase of 1.58% [4]. - Lithium basis (spot - futures): The current value is - 3.3, the previous value is - 9.7, with a daily change of - 65.98% [4]. International Prices (15:00, USD/ounce) - London spot platinum: The current value is 1920.923, the previous value is 1892.8, with a daily increase of 1.49% [4]. - London spot palladium: The current value is 1419.574, the previous value is 1401.427, with a daily increase of 1.29% [4]. - NYMEX platinum: The current value is 1916.2, the previous value is 1894.5, with a daily increase of 1.15% [4]. - NYMEX palladium: The current value is 1417.5, the previous value is 1406.5, with a daily increase of 0.78% [4]. Internal - External 15:00 Spread (Yuan/gram) - USD/CNY central parity rate: The current value is 6.9223, the previous value is 6.9141, with a daily increase of 0.12% [4]. - Guangzhou platinum - London platinum: The current value is 14.41, the previous value is 17.59, with a daily change of - 18.11% [4]. - Guangzhou platinum - NYMEX platinum: The current value is 15.60, the previous value is 17.17, with a daily change of - 9.15% [4]. Other Spreads and Ratios - Guangzhou lithium - London aluminum: The current value is 0.29, the previous value is 6.17, with a daily change of - 95.27% [5]. - Guangzhou lithium - NYMEX lithium: The current value is 0.81, the previous value is 4.90, with a daily change of - 83.39% [5]. - Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/lithium ratio: The current value is 1.3924, the previous value is 1.3765, with an increase of 0.0159 [5]. - London spot platinum/lithium ratio: The current value is 1.3506, the previous value is 1.3532, with a decrease of 0.0025 [5]. Inventory (Troy Ounces) - NYMEX platinum inventory: The current value is 554,241, the previous value is 558,768, with a daily decrease of 0.81% [5]. - NYMEX palladium inventory: The current value is 248,374, the previous value is 248,374, with a daily change of 0.00% [5]. Position - NYMEX total platinum position: The current value is 61,473, the previous value is 67,292, with a daily decrease of 8.65% [5]. - NYMEX non - commercial net long platinum position: The current value is 16,898, the previous value is 16,198, with a daily increase of 4.14% [5]. - NYMEX total palladium position: The current value is 15,556, the previous value is 15,069, with a daily increase of 3.13% [5]. - NYMEX non - commercial net long palladium position: The current value is - 185, the previous value is - 1242, with a daily increase of 571.35% [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the fundamentals of LPG and propylene, including price movements, trading volumes, open interest, and industry operating rates. It also provides market information such as CP paper prices and domestic device maintenance plans, suggesting that the cost side of propylene is affected by geopolitical factors and there is an expectation of supply reduction. 3. Summary by Directory **Fundamental Tracking** - **Futures Market** - **LPG (PG)**: On March 16, 2026, the 2604 contract had a closing price of 5,734 with a daily increase of 1.60%, and a night - session closing price of 5,751 with a night - session increase of 0.37%. Trading volumes and open interest showed various changes. - **Propylene (PL)**: The 2604 contract had a closing price of 8,169 with a daily increase of 3.85%, and a night - session closing price of 8,263 with a night - session increase of 1.15%. Trading volumes and open interest also changed [1]. - **Spot Market** - **LPG (PG)**: Prices in different regions such as Shandong, East China, and South China showed different degrees of change. For example, Shandong civil LPG was priced at 5,550, down 184 from the previous day, and the main contract basis was 227, down 320 from the previous day. - **Propylene (PL)**: East China was priced at 8,350, unchanged from the previous day, and the main contract basis was 8, down 288 from the previous day [1]. - **Industry Operating Rates** - PDH operating rate was 63.23%, down 1.7 from the previous week; alkylation operating rate was 37.2%, unchanged; MTBE operating rate was 68.94%, up 1.22 from the previous week [1]. - **LPG Shipment Volume** - Global LPG shipments on March 15, 2026, were 12.3 tons, down 4.5 from the previous day; Asian shipments were 4.9 tons, down 2.3 from the previous day. Middle - East global shipments were 0.8 tons, unchanged from the previous day; Asian shipments were 0.8 tons, unchanged from the previous day [1]. **Trend Intensity** - LPG trend intensity: 1; propylene trend intensity: 1. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]. **Market Information** - **CP Paper Prices**: On March 13, 2026 (Singapore closing time), the April CP paper price for propane was 578 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; butane was 572 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton. The May CP paper price for propane was 586 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [6]. - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies have PDH device maintenance plans, including Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. Some maintenance start times are from 2023 to 2026, and some end times are still to be determined [7]. - **Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Many factories such as Rizhao (Zhonghai), Shangneng Petrochemical, and Dongchen Petrochemical have device maintenance plans, with different start and end times and loss amounts [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the propylene market, highlighting cost - side geopolitical disturbances and expected supply reduction. It also provides detailed data on the fundamentals of LPG and propylene [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking a. Futures Market - For LPG (PG), on March 11, 2026, the 2604 contract had a closing price of 5,447 with a daily increase of 3.32% and a night - session closing price of 5,624 with a night - session increase of 3.25%. The 2605 contract had a closing price of 5,288 with a daily increase of 3.28% and a night - session closing price of 5,450 with a night - session increase of 3.06%. The 2606 contract had a closing price of 5,136 with a daily increase of 2.51% and a night - session closing price of 5,290 with a night - session increase of 3.00%. - For propylene (PL), the 2604 contract had a closing price of 7,954 with a daily increase of 6.19% and a night - session closing price of 8,375 with a night - session increase of 5.29%. The 2605 contract had a closing price of 7,812 with a daily increase of 4.54% and a night - session closing price of 8,143 with a night - session increase of 4.24%. The 2606 contract had a closing price of 7,523 with a daily increase of 4.53% and a night - session closing price of 7,734 with a night - session increase of 2.80% [1] b. Spot Market - For LPG, the Shandong civil price was 5,030, down 1,390 from the previous day, with a main - contract basis of - 417, down 1,565. The East China import price was 6,920, unchanged from the previous day, with a main - contract basis of 1,573, down 175. - For propylene, the Shandong price was 8,325, down 475 from the previous day, with a main - contract basis of 513, down 814. The East China price was 8,700, down 175 from the previous day, with a main - contract basis of 888, down 514 [1] c. Industrial Chain Operating Rates - As of March 6, 2026, the PDH operating rate was 64.93, up 1.7 from the previous week. The alkylation operating rate was 37.2, down 1.99 from the previous day. The MTBE operating rate was 67.72, up 0.5 from the previous week [1] d. LPG Shipment Volumes - From the United States on March 11, 2026, the global shipment volume was 30.3 (in ten thousand tons), up 16.5 from the previous day. The Asian shipment volume was 19.5, up 15.1 from the previous day, and the Chinese shipment volume was 4.7, up 4.7 from the previous day. - From the Middle East, all shipment volumes to various regions were 0 on March 11, 2026 [1] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 1, and the trend intensity of propylene is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5] 3. Market Information - On March 11, 2026 (Singapore closing time), the April CP paper - cargo price for propane was 572 US dollars/ton, down 8 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the butane price was also 572 US dollars/ton, down 8 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The May CP paper - cargo price for propane was 569 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [6] - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans. For example, Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd.'s PDH device with a capacity of 15 started maintenance on May 12, 2023, and the end time is to be determined. - There are also domestic liquefied gas factory device maintenance plans. For example, Shangneng Petrochemical in Shandong had a full - plant maintenance from February 5, 2026, to March 5, 2026, with a normal production volume of 120 and a loss volume of 120 [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint No explicit core viewpoint is presented in the report. It mainly focuses on providing fundamental data and market information about LPG and propylene. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For LPG futures, on March 10, 2026, the 2604 contract closed at 5,272 with a daily decline of 6.13%, and the night - session closed at 5,220 with a decline of 0.99%. The trading volume was 255,167, an increase of 20,358 from the previous day, and the open interest was 60,028, a decrease of 18,452. Similar data is provided for other contracts (2605, 2606). For propylene (PL) futures, the 2604 contract closed at 7,490 with a daily decline of 3.03%, and the night - session closed at 7,293 with a decline of 2.63%. The trading volume was 256, an increase of 171 from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,297, a decrease of 21 [1]. - **Spot Market**: In the LPG spot market, prices and changes vary by region. For example, the price of Shandong civil LPG was 6,420, with a change of - 890 from the previous day, and the main - contract basis was 1,148, a decrease of 546. In the propylene spot market, the price of Shandong was 8,800, a decrease of 950 from the previous day, and the main - contract basis was 1,327, a decrease of 725 [1]. - **Industrial Chain开工率**: As of March 6, 2026, the PDH operating rate was 64.93%, an increase of 1.7 from the previous week; the alkylation operating rate was 39.19%, an increase of 0.39; the MTBE operating rate was 67.72%, an increase of 0.5 [1]. - **LPG Shipment Volume**: On March 10, 2026, the global LPG shipment volume from the US was 16.5 (in ten thousand tons), a decrease of 0.4 from the previous day; the shipment volume to Asia was 8.7, an increase of 4.1. From the Middle East, the global shipment volume was 0.0, a decrease of 4.6; the shipment volume to Asia was 0.0, a decrease of 4.6 [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 1, and the trend intensity of propylene is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [5]. 3.3 Market Information - On March 10, 2026 (Singapore closing time), the April CP paper - cargo price of propane was 580 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 13 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the price of butane was 580 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 13 US dollars/ton. The May CP paper - cargo price of propane was 575 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [6]. - Multiple domestic PDH plants have ongoing or planned maintenance. For example, Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. started PDH plant maintenance on May 12, 2023, with an undetermined end - date, and its production capacity is 15 [7]. - Several domestic LPG plants also have maintenance plans. For example, Shangneng Petrochemical in Shandong had a full - plant maintenance from February 5, 2026, to March 5, 2026, with a normal production volume of 120 and a loss volume of 120 [7].

Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On March 3, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract dropped significantly to 150,860 yuan/ton, a 12.3% decline from March 2. The basis strengthened notably to 16,940 yuan/ton, an increase of 18,160 yuan from the previous day [1][63]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest of the main contract shrank by 10.24% to 339,604 lots, while the trading volume expanded by 96.03% to 445,115 lots [1][64]. Industry Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: On March 3, the price of spodumene concentrate rose 5.91% to 19,075 yuan/ton, while the price of lepidolite concentrate remained stable. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate stayed at 85.72%. Upstream lithium salt producers showed strong reluctance to sell, leading to a tight supply [2][65]. - **Demand Side**: The prices of downstream products such as power ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate dropped by 2.34% and 4.72% respectively. According to the data from the Passenger Car Association on February 11, the sales volume of new energy vehicles increased year-on-year, but the cumulative year-on-year sales decreased. Downstream material manufacturers' purchasing intention increased when prices fell, but overall, there was strong wait - and - see sentiment [2][65]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 100,093 physical tons, showing a decreasing trend. Although the warehouse receipt data was not updated, the inventory decline indicated a de - stocking trend [2][66]. Price Trend Judgment In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating pattern. The supply side is supported by lithium ore costs but limited by producers' reluctance to sell. The demand side is supported by the growth of new energy vehicle sales but restricted by cautious downstream purchasing. The continuous decline in inventory eases the oversupply pressure. The overall market sentiment is bearish, but the low price may attract bargain - hunting [3][67].

Core Insights - The recent dramatic drop in gold and silver prices was triggered by the nomination of Kevin Warsh, a hawkish figure, as the Federal Reserve Chairman, leading to panic over a shift in monetary easing policies [5][9] - Gold experienced its largest single-day drop in 40 years, exceeding 12%, while silver saw a historic intraday crash of 36% [3][5] Group 1: Market Reactions - Kevin Warsh, known as an "inflation hawk," advocates for a significant reduction of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet from $6.6 trillion to below $5 trillion, causing market expectations for interest rate cuts to plummet from 40% to 15.5% [5] - Prior to the crash, gold had accumulated a 28% increase in January, and silver had surged by 54%, with relative strength indices (RSI) reaching 93.8 for silver and 90 for gold, marking a 40-year peak [5][7] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) raised silver futures margin requirements four times within the month to $25,000 per contract, leading to forced liquidations of high-leverage investors [5] Group 2: Historical Context - The recent crash bears similarities to historical collapses in 1979-1980 and 2011, where silver and gold experienced significant declines following retail investor exuberance and increased margin requirements [7] - In 1979-1980, silver fell from $50 to $10 (an 80% drop), and in 2011, it dropped from $49 to $18 (a 63% decline), with gold also experiencing substantial corrections [7] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Current recommendations suggest limiting gold allocation to 10% of liquid assets and silver to 5%, advising against leverage due to the risk of forced liquidation with a 7% drop under 5x leverage [9] - Key indicators to monitor include the U.S. dollar index, market performance in early February, Chinese industrial data, and statements from Federal Reserve officials, with a focus on signs of stabilization before re-entering the market [9] - The recent drop is viewed as a short-term risk release due to policy and leverage, while the long-term dynamics of de-dollarization and geopolitical uncertainties remain intact [9]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has experienced a historic surge, with COMEX gold prices breaking through $5600 per ounce, reaching $5626.8, and London gold nearing $5600, marking a significant increase in a short period [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - On January 26, COMEX gold first broke the $5000 mark, then reached $5100, and on January 28, it surged past $5200, $5300, and $5400, achieving a record of breaking seven hundred-dollar thresholds in just four trading days [2]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices also hit historical highs, with notable increases; for instance, Lao Miao gold reached 1722 yuan per gram, up 104 yuan in a single day [2]. Group 2: Market Analysis - Multiple authoritative institutions have expressed optimism about the long-term upward trend of gold prices, citing factors such as the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [2]. - Standard Chartered Bank noted that the expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by 2026 will reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, supporting its long-term price increase [2]. - Tianfeng Securities highlighted that the demand for gold as a safe haven due to economic and policy uncertainties, along with increased purchases by central banks, significantly influences gold pricing [2].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have maintained a level around $5,000 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 22%, marking the best start to a year since 1980. Despite multiple supportive factors for gold prices, analysts caution that unexpected resilience in the global economy may weaken safe-haven demand, potentially limiting future price increases [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Ole Hansen, the head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, indicated that speculative buying could push gold prices up to $5,500 per ounce. He identified three main concerns driving current gold prices: uncontrolled fiscal debt expansion, a weakening dollar due to the decline of American exceptionalism, and geopolitical uncertainties exacerbated by unpredictable presidential policies. However, he emphasized that these risk factors have not yet materialized significantly [1]. - The U.S. debt continues to grow, but the market is absorbing risk premiums through a steepening yield curve. Although the dollar is weakening, it has not collapsed, and multiple geopolitical fronts have not escalated into destructive conflicts. Hansen believes that while safe-haven demand may cool marginally, there is little basis for a significant price adjustment, suggesting that gold is more likely to enter a consolidation phase rather than a deep correction [1]. Latest Spot Gold Market Analysis - The expectation of peace may create short-term pressure on gold prices, but the market is more inclined to view this as a buying opportunity rather than a signal for a trend reversal. Additionally, the Trump administration's preference for a weaker dollar continues to exert pressure, with the dollar index experiencing a technical rebound after hitting a four-year low of 95.57, yet this does not alter the mid-term downtrend, providing solid underlying support for gold [3]. - Given the significant uncertainties surrounding the potential geopolitical agreement and the possible trust deficit, gold's safe-haven attributes will provide strong resilience against declines, allowing it to maintain price stability during a long-term bull market [3].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The international gold price reached 1135.49 yuan per gram, increasing by 20.96 yuan, a rise of 1.88% compared to the previous trading day, indicating a strong rebound [1] - The opening price for the day was reported at 1119.75 yuan per gram, with a daily high of 1137.55 yuan and a low of 1119.16 yuan [1] - A bullish sentiment is evident in the gold market, with 80% of Wall Street analysts and 71% of retail investors expecting an increase in gold prices for the upcoming week [4] Group 2: U.S. Rare Earth Investment - The U.S. government plans to invest $1.6 billion in domestic rare earth companies to strengthen the critical mineral supply chain, marking the largest investment in this sector by the Trump administration [2] - The government will acquire a 10% stake in USA Rare Earth, with a total payment of $2.77 million for 16.1 million shares at $17.17 each, alongside a $1 billion private financing round [2] - The investment is expected to yield an implied profit of approximately $490 million based on the current market price of $24.77 per share [2] Group 3: U.S.-India Trade Relations - U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that the 25% tariff imposed on Indian imports of Russian oil has led to a significant reduction in India's purchases, suggesting a potential for tariff removal if India continues to adjust its energy import strategy [3] - The tariff policy has been described as a "huge success," providing substantial benefits to the U.S. economy [3] - The potential removal of tariffs could reshape U.S.-India trade relations and influence the global energy trade landscape [3] Group 4: Future Gold Price Projections - Analysts predict that gold prices could exceed $5000, with a target of $6000 becoming mainstream among institutions due to geopolitical uncertainties and global demand for safe-haven assets [4] - The upcoming week will be crucial for monitoring economic indicators such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and consumer confidence, which could act as catalysts for price movements [4] - The current market conditions may represent a final opportunity for investors to position themselves before gold transitions from an "investment option" to a "strategic necessity" by 2026 [4]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Due to the resonance of supply disruptions and geopolitical uncertainties, platinum prices have significantly increased. The fundamentals are healthy and macro expectations are positive, so platinum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. It's advisable to consider long - position layouts on dips [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs New Dynamics and Reasons - South Africa, a major supplier of platinum - group metals, has declared a "national disaster state" due to floods, which may impact local mining production, logistics, and supply chain stability. Geopolitical and trade frictions still pose risks. Under the influence of supply - side disruptions and geopolitical risks, the precious metals sector has strengthened. As of the time of writing, the main platinum contract on GFEX has risen 9.71% to 681.7 yuan per gram [2] Fundamental Situation - Supply side: South Africa faces risks of power supply and extreme weather. With few new projects from mining companies, overall production is limited. It is expected that global platinum and palladium mine production will increase by 2.8% and 4.8% respectively in 2026, reaching 173.6 tons and 228.2 tons. - Demand side: In 2026, the global economic recovery will drive industrial demand to continue to pick up, and jewelry demand will also rise, offsetting the decline in automotive catalyst demand. Price fluctuations may stimulate investment demand. It is expected that global platinum demand will grow 0.7% to 266.1 tons, resulting in a supply - demand gap of 37.9 tons [3] Summary and Strategy - In the long term, the high concentration of platinum supply means continuous volatility risks, while demand will expand steadily driven by industry and investment. The "rate - cut + soft - landing" scenario will amplify price elasticity. With healthy fundamentals and positive macro expectations, platinum prices are expected to be volatile and strong. Consider long - position layouts on dips [4]