Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the London platinum and palladium markets trended weaker in a volatile manner. The Fed maintained interest rates as expected, and future policies will depend on data. The expectation of a rate cut in March this year has weakened, but there is still an expectation of a rate cut in the second half of the year. The escalating geopolitical situation between the US and Iran may provide potential safe - haven support for platinum and palladium prices. [7] - The EU postponed the 2035 internal combustion engine ban and strengthened vehicle exhaust emission standards, increasing the demand for platinum in automotive catalysts by about 450,000 ounces this year. Although the global passenger car sales are slightly adjusted downwards, the increasing penetration of hybrid and hydrogen - fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand curve for platinum. The IEA's latest hydrogen outlook also confirms that the cumulative installed capacity of PEM electrolyzers is expected to exceed 17GW by 2030, providing potential upside for platinum prices. [7] - In the short term, there are many global macro - disturbance factors, and high market volatility may continue. In the medium - to - long term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium will still dominate the trading rhythm. The uncertainty of South Africa's power supply and Russia's exports, along with the implementation of new vehicle emission policies, make platinum more resilient than palladium. The supply - demand pattern divergence may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market trend. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - The London platinum and palladium markets trended weaker in a volatile manner this week. The Fed's interest - rate decision was in line with market expectations. The expectation of a rate cut in March has weakened, but there is still a possibility in the second half of the year. The US - Iran situation may support prices. [7] - The EU's new policies on vehicle emissions will increase the demand for platinum in automotive catalysts. The long - term demand for platinum may improve. The market will be volatile in the short term, and the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" trend may continue in the medium - to - long term. The resistance and support levels for London platinum are $2,800/oz and $2,600/oz respectively, and for London palladium are $2,100/oz and $1,900/oz respectively. [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - On Friday, there was concentrated profit - taking in the precious - metals market, leading to a significant correction in the platinum and palladium markets. As of January 30, 2026, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's palladium futures contract 2606 rose 6.81% week - on - week to 464.05 yuan/gram, while the platinum futures contract 2606 fell 8.07% week - on - week to 630.55 yuan/gram. [8][12] - The net long positions of NYMEX platinum and palladium continued to diverge. As of January 20, 2026, the net long position of NYMEX platinum was 21,782 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 8.50%, and that of NYMEX palladium was - 2,762 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 4.43%. [13][17] - The basis of NYMEX platinum and palladium futures contracts weakened this week. [18] - NYMEX platinum inventory decreased, while palladium inventory increased. As of January 29, 2026, NYMEX platinum inventory was 655,182.10 ounces, a week - on - week decrease of 1.61%, and palladium inventory was 224,021.17 ounces, a week - on - week increase of 3.59%. [22][26] - The ratio of NYMEX platinum to COMEX gold has significantly increased compared to the beginning of 2025. [27] - Recently, the positive correlation between platinum prices and NYMEX platinum exchange inventory and US Treasury real yields has rebounded. [32] 3.3 Industry Supply - Demand Situation - As of December 2025, the import and export volumes of platinum and palladium both increased. [37] - The demand for platinum in automotive exhaust catalysts is marginally weakening. The total global demand for platinum and palladium is showing a mild slow - down trend. Due to geopolitical conflicts and power - supply disruptions, the global supply of platinum and palladium is decreasing. The price difference between London and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange for platinum and palladium has become stable. [43][52][56] 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - This week, the US dollar index continued to weaken, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield remained basically unchanged. [60]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a 90% probability of a 0.25% interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, but concerns about persistent inflation may lead to a more hawkish tone in the FOMC statement and Chairman Powell's press conference [1][3] Economic Data and Rate Cut Expectations - The October JOLTs job openings data showed 7.67 million positions, exceeding expectations, indicating resilience in the labor market [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is currently at 87.4%, but there are risks of a "hawkish cut" where Powell may emphasize inflation risks, raising the bar for future easing [3][4] Geopolitical Risks and Gold Support - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East issues, continue to provide safe-haven support for gold [3] - Despite short-term fluctuations in risk sentiment, long-term uncertainties are expected to support gold prices [3] Central Bank Gold Demand - Global central bank demand for gold remains strong, with China's central bank increasing its gold reserves for 16 consecutive months [3] - The World Gold Council projects that global central bank gold purchases will remain high through 2026, providing structural support for gold prices [3] Dollar and Gold Price Dynamics - Weak U.S. economic data and rising rate cut expectations are putting pressure on the dollar, which in turn supports gold prices [3] - However, the risk of profit-taking due to rapid short-term price increases in gold should be monitored [3] Federal Reserve Communication and Market Impact - The upcoming policy statement may emphasize "uncertainty" regarding future paths and reiterate "data dependence," which could signal a more cautious approach to rate cuts [4] - Any new language regarding the "magnitude and timing of adjustments" could indicate a more hawkish stance, potentially supporting the dollar and suppressing gold prices [4] Internal Disagreement within the Fed - There may be a "dual divergence" within the Fed, with some members favoring no change and others advocating for larger cuts, reflecting high uncertainty in policy paths [4] - Powell's communication style post-rate cut will be crucial, as any emphasis on inflation risks could reverse current dovish sentiment, leading to a rebound in the dollar and higher bond yields, which would pressure gold and silver prices [4] Technical Analysis of Gold - Current gold prices are around $4199.29 per ounce, with resistance at $4220 and support near $4150 [2][6] - Short-term trading dynamics indicate a potential for upward movement if key resistance levels are broken, but caution is advised due to the risk of a pullback [6]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have retreated to around $4,210 as traders take profits ahead of key economic data releases, while silver remains supported by a resilient macro environment and expectations of a potential 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the release of the ADP employment report, gold prices increased, reflecting concerns over a slowing labor market as private sector layoffs reached 32,000, significantly worse than the expected addition of 40,000 jobs [2]. - The market anticipates a shift in Federal Reserve policy, with Treasury Secretary Yellen indicating that certain sectors of the economy are showing signs of weakness, reinforcing expectations for a rate cut [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold is maintaining a bullish trend, supported above the $4,170-$4,180 range, despite recent fluctuations [3]. - Silver prices have shown resilience, attempting to break through key resistance levels around $58.60-$58.80, with a potential target of $60.00 if upward momentum continues [3]. - Platinum prices rebounded after a previous decline, stabilizing above the $1,620-$1,630 support level, with further gains possible if it remains above $1,650 [3].

Group 1: Gold Futures Market Performance - On October 21, the main gold futures in Shanghai reported a price of 993.96 yuan per gram, with an increase of 2.01% [1] - The opening price for the main gold futures was 990.00 yuan per gram, reaching a high of 1001.96 yuan and a low of 982.28 yuan during the day [1] Group 2: Macro News - U.S. President Trump announced an agreement with Russian President Putin to hold another summit to discuss ending the Ukraine war, with the Kremlin confirming the meeting plans but not disclosing specific dates [1] - Western nations have intensified efforts to curb Russian oil sales, with Trump stating that India will stop purchasing Russian oil and the UK imposing sanctions on top Russian oil companies [1] - Ukrainian President Zelensky is scheduled to meet with Trump in Washington to seek military and energy support [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed support for another interest rate cut at the end of the month due to concerning signs in the labor market, while another governor, Milan, advocated for a more aggressive rate cut approach [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its economic growth forecast for Asia but warned that escalating U.S.-China tensions could heavily impact the region deeply integrated into global supply chains [1] Group 3: Institutional Views on Precious Metals - The current precious metals market is characterized by mixed factors, entering a phase of high-level fluctuations [2] - Ongoing U.S. government shutdown and unresolved U.S.-China tensions provide solid safe-haven support, limiting the downside for gold prices [2] - With market consensus on the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cut in October and ongoing U.S.-China negotiations potentially leading to easing tensions, the momentum for significant further increases in precious metals is diminishing [2] - The market currently lacks strong catalysts for new direction, suggesting a period of consolidation and waiting for new directional guidance [2]