Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices rose last Friday, hovering near historical highs, marking the seventh consecutive week of increases due to growing concerns over the economic impact of the U.S. government shutdown and expectations of interest rate cuts [1] - The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its second week, creating a stalemate with no strong pressure to resolve the situation, which raises economic concerns such as interruptions in federal employee salaries and project funding freezes [1] - If the shutdown extends to mid-October, the impact may worsen, potentially leading to broader risk aversion and pushing gold prices above $4,000, while a quick bipartisan compromise could see prices retreat to around $3,850 [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The key strength and weakness points for gold this week are at $3,820 and $3,750, respectively, indicating that as long as $3,820 holds, a strong upward trend is expected [4] - Gold has broken the $3,900 high, with expectations to reach $4,000, although this is based on market sentiment rather than specific reasons [2] - For silver, the international market saw significant adjustments, with a recent high of $48.3, maintaining a bullish outlook with targets of $49 and $50, while key support levels are at $46 and $45 [4] Group 3: Futures Market - Domestic gold futures (Shanghai Gold) experienced a decline before the National Day holiday, dropping from 873 to 855, but the trend remains bullish as it has rebounded to around 870 [5] - The silver futures market (2512 contract) closed at 10,920, with no night trading reflecting the recent downward movement, leading to a cautious stance until further analysis post-holiday [5]

美国疲弱就业数据引爆避险潮，上周五纳指跌超2%，美元重挫，美债飙涨，以太坊跌近6%。 美国7月非农新增就业7.3万远低于预期，前两月数据大幅下修25.8万。 非农数据疲软，特朗普甩锅：拜登任命的官员编制，罢免统计局局长！ 美联储内斗"公开化"：两高官称"就业依旧稳健"，两反对派发声明"等待是犯错"。 美联储理事库格勒宣布将于8月8日辞职。 威胁制裁，特朗普要求俄乌8月8日前达成协议，普京：如果有人对迄今俄乌和谈成果感到失望， 那是因为"期望过高"。 OPEC+原则同意9月再次大幅增产。 伯克希尔Q2净利润暴跌59%，现金储备接近历史高位，警告关税将打击业绩。伯克希尔对卡夫亨 氏的投资进行了38亿美元的巨额减计。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. military action against Iran's nuclear facilities is expected to trigger an instinctive market reaction, leading to a rise in oil prices and an increase in risk aversion among investors as they assess the potential global economic impact of the escalating tensions [1] Group 1 - Investors anticipate that the initial market response will be panic, resulting in higher oil prices at the market opening [1] - The uncertainty surrounding the situation is expected to cast a shadow over the market, increasing volatility, particularly in the oil sector [1] - There is a belief that the U.S. citizens worldwide will face risks due to the military action, further contributing to market uncertainty [1]