标普全球市场情报经济总监蒂姆·摩尔指出，尽管11月26日预算案公布前的政策不确定性导致部分重大 支出决策延迟，但国内市场客户需求的韧性仍让多数企业保持乐观。这一积极态势对将经济增长列为首 要任务的财政大臣里夫斯而言，无疑是利好消息。 值得关注的是，当前市场普遍预期英国央行将于本月召开的货币政策会议上维持4%的基准利率不变。 英国央行正密切追踪服务业价格变化以评估通胀压力，而PMI数据显示价格涨势放缓，或为货币政策调 整提供更多空间。 分析认为，服务业与制造业的协同改善，预示英国经济可能已度过此前的疲软期，逐步显现复苏迹象。 但预算案公布前的增税预期仍让部分企业在关键决策上保持谨慎，未来经济复苏力度仍需观察政策落地 后的实际效果。(完) 中新社伦敦11月5日电 (欧阳开宇 刘施岑)标普全球5日公布的调查数据显示，英国服务业10月表现超预 期，采购经理人指数(PMI)攀升至扩张区间高位，企业对未来一年的业绩展望创下2024年10月以来最强 水平，同时通胀压力呈现显著减弱态势。 数据显示，英国10月服务业PMI终值升至52.3，高于9月的50.8，延续扩张势头。作为英国经济的核心支 柱，服务业产出与新订单在10月同 ...

每经AI快讯，10月24日消息，英国10月综合采购经理人指数(PMI)初值为51.1，上月终值为50.1。 ...

Group 1 - The UK export demand is declining at the fastest rate since April, following the announcement of global tariff policies by the US President Trump, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropping from a one-year high of 53.5 in August to 51 [1] - Both the service and manufacturing sectors contributed to the decline, with factory output shrinking and overseas new orders reaching their worst performance in five months, indicating weak sales to the US and Europe [1][5] - The report highlights the ongoing damage from US tariff policies, despite the UK facing lower export barriers compared to most countries, posing challenges for the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, in addressing public finance issues amid ongoing economic weakness and geopolitical tensions [5] Group 2 - The chief business economist at S&P Global, Chris Williamson, indicated that the warning signs of economic weakness have been raised, which may lead to a more dovish stance in the Bank of England's policy discussions [5] - Companies reported a slowdown in input price growth, with the rate of increase falling from a three-month high last month, although suppliers are attempting to pass on rising labor costs amid ongoing increases in energy bills and food prices [5] - Manufacturing output is declining at the fastest rate since March, while service sector activity growth is also slowing due to weak domestic demand and heightened geopolitical tensions, leading employers to continue reducing jobs for the past 12 months [5]

Core Insights - The S&P Global July China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is reported at 49.5, which aligns with the original Caixin PMI figure [1] Group 1 - The PMI value of 49.5 indicates a contraction in the manufacturing sector, as it is below the neutral level of 50 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the gold market is experiencing a downturn, with prices expected to consolidate below $3,400 in the short term, influenced by upcoming significant U.S. economic data releases [1][2] - On July 24, gold prices fell sharply, closing down $44.44 or 1.3% at $3,387.22 per ounce, primarily due to reports of the U.S. and EU nearing a tariff agreement, which diminished safe-haven demand [2] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose by 3.5 basis points to 4.384%, pushing the real yield to 1.994%, further suppressing gold prices [2] Group 2 - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming U.S. initial jobless claims data, expected to be 227,000, and the durable goods orders month-on-month change, projected to drop from 16.4% in May to -10.8% [2] - The market is awaiting the release of the U.S. Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, with expectations for the July Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value at 52.6 and the services PMI at 53.0 [2] - Analysts suggest that if either PMI index falls below 50.0, indicating a contraction in economic activity, the U.S. dollar may weaken, potentially benefiting gold prices [2][3] Group 3 - Technical analysis shows that after reaching a five-week high of $3,438, gold prices reversed and fell to around $3,380, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating a weakening buying momentum [6] - If gold breaks above $3,400, the next resistance level is at the June 16 high of $3,452, with a further target towards the historical high of $3,500; conversely, if it remains below $3,400, it may test lower levels at $3,350 and subsequently the 20-day and 50-day moving averages at $3,343 and $3,338 respectively [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Eurozone's composite PMI fell to 50.8 in June from 52.2 in May, marking a five-month low and below analysts' expectations of 50.5, indicating a challenging economic environment [1][4]. Economic Performance - The services PMI dropped to 51.3 in June, the lowest level this year, down from 53.1 in May, reflecting a slowdown in new orders and business confidence [5]. - The manufacturing PMI remained in contraction at 46.5, slightly improving from 46.1 in May, but still well below the 50 mark, indicating ongoing demand weakness [8]. Country-Specific Insights - Germany's composite PMI fell to 49.8 in June from 52.4 in May, indicating significant economic challenges, with both services and manufacturing sectors showing weakness [9]. - France's economic performance deteriorated further, with a composite PMI of 45.7 in June, down from 48.9 in May, indicating deep recessions in both services and manufacturing sectors [10]. Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that the Eurozone economy may face greater pressure in the latter part of the year due to weak consumer confidence and inflation remaining above the ECB's 2% target [12]. - The ECB's recent rate cuts may limit further monetary easing, as inflation has recently dropped below the target, and the central bank is expected to pause further rate reductions [12].

Group 1 - The Bank of England is focusing more on the S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and has warned of increased volatility in GDP data [1] - The PMI is viewed as a more stable indicator of economic conditions compared to official GDP data, which showed a strong recovery of 0.7% in Q1 [3] - There are concerns that relying on PMI could lead to misleading conclusions about actual economic growth, as it reflects sentiment rather than concrete growth [3][7] Group 2 - The PMI showed almost zero growth in Q1, with a decline into contraction territory in April due to uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies, before rebounding to flat in May [3] - The services sector, which constitutes the largest part of the UK economy, is showing strong performance despite the PMI's mixed signals [7] - Political events have significantly impacted PMI and other business surveys, often leading to sharp declines, while official data like GDP and unemployment rates have remained stable [7] Group 3 - There is a risk that different indicators are sending conflicting signals about demand, necessitating more time for the Bank of England to understand the driving forces behind economic growth [8]