来源：中国新闻网 编辑：万可义 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 英国建筑业陷入长期低迷 中新社伦敦1月7日电 (记者 欧阳开宇)标普全球与英国采购与供应特许协会7日联合发布的调查显示，英 国建筑业产出在2025年12月连续第12个月萎缩，陷入长期低迷，反映出行业面临的多重压力仍未缓解。 数据显示，12月英国建筑业采购经理人指数(PMI)为40.1，虽较11月创下的5年半低点39.4略有回升，但 仍远低于50的荣枯分界线，且低于英国媒体普遍预测的42.5。这一读数意味着行业收缩态势仍在持续， 仅下滑速度略有放缓。 标普全球市场情报经济总监蒂姆·摩尔指出，英国建筑公司持续面临严峻的商业环境，工作量不断下 降，需求疲软与客户信心不足是核心症结。尽管此前困扰行业的预算政策不确定性有所缓解，但企业支 出决策延迟的问题仍未改善，导致年底业务渠道持续疲软。 英国媒体分析称，此次行业低迷始于2025年初，受多重因素叠加影响。英国财政大臣里夫斯去年11月公 布的年度预算案包含大规模增税计划，虽多数措施延迟实施，但前期政策不确定性已抑制企业投资意 愿；高利率环境推高融资成本，叠加原材料短缺、劳动力技能缺口等结构性问题，进一步加剧行业 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the UK services sector showed unexpected performance in October, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 52.3, indicating expansion and the strongest business outlook since October 2024 [1] - The services sector output and new orders both rebounded in October, driven by strong domestic market demand, which is a key growth driver for the industry [1] - Employment in the services sector has stabilized, with a significant slowdown in layoffs since September, reflecting improved business confidence regarding market prospects [1] Group 2 - The services sector's cost inflation rate has dropped to its lowest level since November 2024, providing important support for the decline in inflation [1] - The Bank of England is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4% during the upcoming monetary policy meeting, closely monitoring price changes in the services sector to assess inflationary pressures [2] - The collaborative improvement between the services and manufacturing sectors suggests that the UK economy may have moved past its previous sluggish period, gradually showing signs of recovery [2]

Core Insights - The UK's preliminary Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October is reported at 51.1, an increase from the final value of 50.1 in the previous month [1] Economic Indicators - The increase in the PMI indicates a positive shift in economic activity, suggesting potential growth in the UK economy [1]

Group 1 - The UK export demand is declining at the fastest rate since April, following the announcement of global tariff policies by the US President Trump, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropping from a one-year high of 53.5 in August to 51 [1] - Both the service and manufacturing sectors contributed to the decline, with factory output shrinking and overseas new orders reaching their worst performance in five months, indicating weak sales to the US and Europe [1][5] - The report highlights the ongoing damage from US tariff policies, despite the UK facing lower export barriers compared to most countries, posing challenges for the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, in addressing public finance issues amid ongoing economic weakness and geopolitical tensions [5] Group 2 - The chief business economist at S&P Global, Chris Williamson, indicated that the warning signs of economic weakness have been raised, which may lead to a more dovish stance in the Bank of England's policy discussions [5] - Companies reported a slowdown in input price growth, with the rate of increase falling from a three-month high last month, although suppliers are attempting to pass on rising labor costs amid ongoing increases in energy bills and food prices [5] - Manufacturing output is declining at the fastest rate since March, while service sector activity growth is also slowing due to weak domestic demand and heightened geopolitical tensions, leading employers to continue reducing jobs for the past 12 months [5]

Core Insights - The S&P Global July China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is reported at 49.5, which aligns with the original Caixin PMI figure [1] Group 1 - The PMI value of 49.5 indicates a contraction in the manufacturing sector, as it is below the neutral level of 50 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the gold market is experiencing a downturn, with prices expected to consolidate below $3,400 in the short term, influenced by upcoming significant U.S. economic data releases [1][2] - On July 24, gold prices fell sharply, closing down $44.44 or 1.3% at $3,387.22 per ounce, primarily due to reports of the U.S. and EU nearing a tariff agreement, which diminished safe-haven demand [2] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose by 3.5 basis points to 4.384%, pushing the real yield to 1.994%, further suppressing gold prices [2] Group 2 - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming U.S. initial jobless claims data, expected to be 227,000, and the durable goods orders month-on-month change, projected to drop from 16.4% in May to -10.8% [2] - The market is awaiting the release of the U.S. Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, with expectations for the July Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value at 52.6 and the services PMI at 53.0 [2] - Analysts suggest that if either PMI index falls below 50.0, indicating a contraction in economic activity, the U.S. dollar may weaken, potentially benefiting gold prices [2][3] Group 3 - Technical analysis shows that after reaching a five-week high of $3,438, gold prices reversed and fell to around $3,380, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating a weakening buying momentum [6] - If gold breaks above $3,400, the next resistance level is at the June 16 high of $3,452, with a further target towards the historical high of $3,500; conversely, if it remains below $3,400, it may test lower levels at $3,350 and subsequently the 20-day and 50-day moving averages at $3,343 and $3,338 respectively [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Eurozone's composite PMI fell to 50.8 in June from 52.2 in May, marking a five-month low and below analysts' expectations of 50.5, indicating a challenging economic environment [1][4]. Economic Performance - The services PMI dropped to 51.3 in June, the lowest level this year, down from 53.1 in May, reflecting a slowdown in new orders and business confidence [5]. - The manufacturing PMI remained in contraction at 46.5, slightly improving from 46.1 in May, but still well below the 50 mark, indicating ongoing demand weakness [8]. Country-Specific Insights - Germany's composite PMI fell to 49.8 in June from 52.4 in May, indicating significant economic challenges, with both services and manufacturing sectors showing weakness [9]. - France's economic performance deteriorated further, with a composite PMI of 45.7 in June, down from 48.9 in May, indicating deep recessions in both services and manufacturing sectors [10]. Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that the Eurozone economy may face greater pressure in the latter part of the year due to weak consumer confidence and inflation remaining above the ECB's 2% target [12]. - The ECB's recent rate cuts may limit further monetary easing, as inflation has recently dropped below the target, and the central bank is expected to pause further rate reductions [12].

Group 1 - The Bank of England is focusing more on the S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and has warned of increased volatility in GDP data [1] - The PMI is viewed as a more stable indicator of economic conditions compared to official GDP data, which showed a strong recovery of 0.7% in Q1 [3] - There are concerns that relying on PMI could lead to misleading conclusions about actual economic growth, as it reflects sentiment rather than concrete growth [3][7] Group 2 - The PMI showed almost zero growth in Q1, with a decline into contraction territory in April due to uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies, before rebounding to flat in May [3] - The services sector, which constitutes the largest part of the UK economy, is showing strong performance despite the PMI's mixed signals [7] - Political events have significantly impacted PMI and other business surveys, often leading to sharp declines, while official data like GDP and unemployment rates have remained stable [7] Group 3 - There is a risk that different indicators are sending conflicting signals about demand, necessitating more time for the Bank of England to understand the driving forces behind economic growth [8]