英国9月份私营部门增长放缓 智通财经APP获悉，一项备受关注的调查显示，自美国总统特朗普宣布全球关税政策以来，英国出口需求正以四月以来最快速度下滑。标普全球周二发布的 初值数据显示，采购经理人指数(PMI)初值从8月达到的一年高点53.5降至51。 该读数虽仍高于50的荣枯分界线，但低于经济学家预期的53。服务业和制造业双双拖累指标下行，本月工厂产出萎缩加剧。标普全球的海外新订单总量指标 创下五个月来最差表现，企业报告称对美国和欧洲的销售出现疲软。 该报告凸显出美国关税政策的持续损害——尽管英国面临的出口壁垒低于大多数国家。这也反映出财政大臣雷切尔·里维斯面临的挑战：在增长持续疲软、 地缘政治紧张加剧的背景下，她需在11月26日的预算中填补公共财政的又一个窟窿。 随着增税猜测甚嚣尘上，企业对未来一年前景的乐观情绪也在减弱。 标普全球市场情报首席商业经济学家克里斯·威廉姆森表示："经济疲软的警报已经拉响，这可能会促使英国央行的政策辩论转向更鸽派立场。" 企业报告称投入价格增长压力有所缓解，增速从上月的三个月高点回落。但受访企业指出，供应商正试图转嫁上升的用工成本，同时能源账单和食品价格持 续上涨。 制造业产出以 ...

标普全球7月中国通用制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)为49.5(原财新PMI)。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the gold market is experiencing a downturn, with prices expected to consolidate below $3,400 in the short term, influenced by upcoming significant U.S. economic data releases [1][2] - On July 24, gold prices fell sharply, closing down $44.44 or 1.3% at $3,387.22 per ounce, primarily due to reports of the U.S. and EU nearing a tariff agreement, which diminished safe-haven demand [2] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose by 3.5 basis points to 4.384%, pushing the real yield to 1.994%, further suppressing gold prices [2] Group 2 - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming U.S. initial jobless claims data, expected to be 227,000, and the durable goods orders month-on-month change, projected to drop from 16.4% in May to -10.8% [2] - The market is awaiting the release of the U.S. Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, with expectations for the July Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value at 52.6 and the services PMI at 53.0 [2] - Analysts suggest that if either PMI index falls below 50.0, indicating a contraction in economic activity, the U.S. dollar may weaken, potentially benefiting gold prices [2][3] Group 3 - Technical analysis shows that after reaching a five-week high of $3,438, gold prices reversed and fell to around $3,380, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating a weakening buying momentum [6] - If gold breaks above $3,400, the next resistance level is at the June 16 high of $3,452, with a further target towards the historical high of $3,500; conversely, if it remains below $3,400, it may test lower levels at $3,350 and subsequently the 20-day and 50-day moving averages at $3,343 and $3,338 respectively [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Eurozone's composite PMI fell to 50.8 in June from 52.2 in May, marking a five-month low and below analysts' expectations of 50.5, indicating a challenging economic environment [1][4]. Economic Performance - The services PMI dropped to 51.3 in June, the lowest level this year, down from 53.1 in May, reflecting a slowdown in new orders and business confidence [5]. - The manufacturing PMI remained in contraction at 46.5, slightly improving from 46.1 in May, but still well below the 50 mark, indicating ongoing demand weakness [8]. Country-Specific Insights - Germany's composite PMI fell to 49.8 in June from 52.4 in May, indicating significant economic challenges, with both services and manufacturing sectors showing weakness [9]. - France's economic performance deteriorated further, with a composite PMI of 45.7 in June, down from 48.9 in May, indicating deep recessions in both services and manufacturing sectors [10]. Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that the Eurozone economy may face greater pressure in the latter part of the year due to weak consumer confidence and inflation remaining above the ECB's 2% target [12]. - The ECB's recent rate cuts may limit further monetary easing, as inflation has recently dropped below the target, and the central bank is expected to pause further rate reductions [12].

Group 1 - The Bank of England is focusing more on the S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and has warned of increased volatility in GDP data [1] - The PMI is viewed as a more stable indicator of economic conditions compared to official GDP data, which showed a strong recovery of 0.7% in Q1 [3] - There are concerns that relying on PMI could lead to misleading conclusions about actual economic growth, as it reflects sentiment rather than concrete growth [3][7] Group 2 - The PMI showed almost zero growth in Q1, with a decline into contraction territory in April due to uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies, before rebounding to flat in May [3] - The services sector, which constitutes the largest part of the UK economy, is showing strong performance despite the PMI's mixed signals [7] - Political events have significantly impacted PMI and other business surveys, often leading to sharp declines, while official data like GDP and unemployment rates have remained stable [7] Group 3 - There is a risk that different indicators are sending conflicting signals about demand, necessitating more time for the Bank of England to understand the driving forces behind economic growth [8]