2026年2月，由于春节假期的影响，重卡市场未能延续1月份的增长态势。在这个传统淡季里，各家主要企业销量表现如何？ 请看第一商用车网带来的分析报道。 2月重卡销量同比小降，3月市场迎来旺季 根据第一商用车网最新掌握的数据，2026年2月份，我国重卡市场共计销售约7.5万辆（批发口径，包含出口和新能源），环比下降近3 成，比上年同期的8.14万辆下滑约8%。今年1-2月，我国重卡行业累计销量超过18万辆，同比增长约17%。 2020-2026年我国重卡市场销量月度走势图（单位：辆） 2026年2月重卡行业同比、环比双双下降的原因，主要是季节性的波动：春节月。2026年的春节假期是从2月中旬到2月下旬，2月16 日是除夕，比2025年除夕（1月28日）晚了19天。春节是中国人民家庭团圆的传统佳节，中国的老百姓不管多忙多累，都要回家团 聚，货运行业从业者同样如此。因此，春节所在月份必然是货车购买的淡季，只有等到正月十五元宵节以后，制造业复工复产拉动货运 业复工复产，旺盛的购车需求和传统商用车销售旺季才会如期到来。由于今年春节比去年春节晚了近20天，去年的卡车销售旺季是在2 月中旬以后才陆续到来的，因此，今年的卡车销 ...

总量上看，1月国产重卡销量10.5万台，同比增长46%，环比增长3% 智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，随着2026年重卡"以旧换新"政策确认继续实施，2026年重卡 国内销量有望达到76万，同比-5.3%。2025年以旧换新政策效果可观，重卡销量基数较高，但该行观察 到国内物流景气度尚可，在2017-21年高置换基数下，预计重卡销量下滑幅度有限。整体看批发销量， 该行认为2026年有望达到116万台，同比+1.5%，出口有望维持增长。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 1月重卡新能源渗透率19%。根据该行对重卡全生命周期成本(TCO)的测算，新能源重卡的TCO大致在年 度里程4.5至10万公里时最优。该行认为，随着技术成熟与成本下降，新能源重卡已具备内生增长动 力，2026年新能源渗透率有望继续增长，边际上应持续关注新能源重卡以旧换新政策落地情况。 风险提示：经济发展不及预期，原材料价格大幅上涨。 该行认为，1月重卡批发销量同环比增长的主要来自企业端的驱动，2025年主要重卡企业年度目标完成 度较好，因此结转了一部分销量到2026年，以确保2026年"开门红"，鼓舞经销体系和产业链合作伙伴的 信心。同时，批发" ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the heavy truck industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market benchmark [4]. Core Insights - In January, domestic heavy truck sales reached 105,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 46% and a month-on-month increase of 3% [2][4]. - The sales of domestic natural gas heavy trucks in January were 19,000 units, showing a year-on-year growth of 98% and a month-on-month growth of 50% [2][4]. - The sales of domestic new energy heavy trucks in January were 20,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 102% but a month-on-month decrease of 24% [2][4]. - The report anticipates that the heavy truck sales in China for 2026 will reach 760,000 units, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year, while wholesale sales are expected to reach 1.16 million units, an increase of 1.5% year-on-year [4]. Summary by Sections Heavy Truck Sales Performance - January's heavy truck sales were driven by corporate demand, with major manufacturers achieving good completion rates for their annual targets, leading to a portion of sales being carried over into 2026 [4]. - The penetration rate of natural gas heavy trucks in January was 18%, with significant growth expected due to lower operating costs for vehicles with high annual mileage [4]. - The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks was 19% in January, with expectations for continued growth as technology matures and costs decrease [4]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Weichai Power, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Foton Motor, CIMC Vehicles, and FAW Jiefang, all rated as "Overweight" [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the heavy truck industry [4]. Core Insights - In December, domestic heavy truck sales reached 103,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 22% but a month-on-month decrease of 9% [2][4]. - The total sales of domestic heavy trucks for the year 2023 amounted to 1.144 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 27% [4]. - The report anticipates that the domestic heavy truck sales in 2026 will reach 760,000 units, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year, while wholesale sales are expected to reach 1.16 million units, reflecting a 1.5% increase [4]. Summary by Sections Heavy Truck Sales Performance - December saw domestic natural gas heavy truck sales of 13,000 units, up 19% year-on-year but down 33% month-on-month [2][4]. - Cumulative sales of domestic natural gas heavy trucks for 2023 reached 190,000 units, also a 19% increase year-on-year [4]. - The penetration rate of natural gas in heavy trucks was 12% in December and 17% for the entire year [4]. New Energy Heavy Truck Sales - December recorded domestic new energy heavy truck sales of 27,000 units, a significant year-on-year increase of 139% and a month-on-month increase of 12% [2][4]. - Cumulative sales of domestic new energy heavy trucks for 2023 reached 192,000 units, marking a 175% year-on-year growth [4]. - The penetration rate for new energy heavy trucks was 26% in December and 17% for the year [4]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Weichai Power, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Foton Motor, CIMC Vehicles, and FAW Jiefang [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Haitong indicates that with economic recovery and the implementation of the "old-for-new" policy for heavy trucks in 2025, domestic heavy truck sales are expected to gradually rebound, with a projected sales volume of 1.067 million units in 2025, representing an 18% year-on-year increase [1] Summary by Sections Overall Sales Performance - In October, domestic heavy truck sales reached 106,000 units, marking a 60% year-on-year increase and a 1% month-on-month increase. Cumulatively, from January to October, total sales amounted to 928,000 units, reflecting a 24% year-on-year growth. The "old-for-new" policy continues to support strong terminal sales [2] Sales Structure - In October 2025, the sales proportions of semi-trailer tractors, cargo trucks, and incomplete vehicles within the heavy truck segment were 51.4%, 27.2%, and 21.4% respectively. This shows an increase in the share of heavy cargo trucks compared to 2024. In October, semi-trailer tractor sales were 59,000 units, up 83% year-on-year and 4% month-on-month [3] Focus on Natural Gas Heavy Trucks - In October, domestic natural gas heavy truck sales reached 22,000 units, a significant 197% year-on-year increase and a 2% month-on-month increase. Cumulatively, from January to October, natural gas heavy truck sales totaled 158,000 units, up 12% year-on-year. The penetration rate of natural gas in heavy trucks was 20% in October and 17% for the year-to-date [4] Focus on New Energy Heavy Trucks - In October, domestic new energy heavy truck sales were 20,000 units, representing a 176% year-on-year increase and a 7% month-on-month increase. From January to October, cumulative sales of new energy heavy trucks reached 141,000 units, also up 176% year-on-year. The penetration rate for new energy heavy trucks was 19% in October and 15% year-to-date [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price based on the closing price of 17.48 yuan on October 30, 2025, corresponding to PE ratios of 13, 11, and 9 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported revenue of 40.49 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.55%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.05 billion yuan, up 12.45% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, revenue reached 14.33 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 55.98% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.11% [1][2]. - The heavy truck export market remains robust, with Q3 2025 exports increasing by 22.91% year-on-year, and the company holds a market share of 47.77%, indicating strong competitive positioning [3]. - The implementation of the "old-for-new" policy is expected to stimulate domestic demand, as it includes subsidies for older heavy trucks, which will likely benefit the company as a leading player in the industry [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 7.12%, which is a decline compared to the previous year due to changes in revenue structure. The net profit margin stood at 3.80% [2]. - The company’s operating expenses showed a decrease in sales, management, and R&D expense ratios, attributed to improved scale efficiency [2]. Market Dynamics - The heavy truck market in China is experiencing a recovery, with wholesale sales of heavy trucks increasing by 58.07% year-on-year in Q3 2025. The company’s sales performance aligns closely with industry trends [2]. - The report highlights the favorable conditions in the export market, with the company benefiting from high demand and competitive pricing [3]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 56.16 billion yuan in 2025, 64.02 billion yuan in 2026, and 71.71 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 1.62 billion yuan, 1.87 billion yuan, and 2.17 billion yuan respectively [5][9]. - The report anticipates continued growth in earnings per share (EPS), projected at 1.38 yuan for 2025, 1.60 yuan for 2026, and 1.85 yuan for 2027 [4][5].