Core Viewpoint - Guotai Junan has established an "all-weather" asset allocation framework consisting of Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA), Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA), and Major Event Review Adjustments to guide investment decisions [1][2] Asset Allocation Framework - The framework aims to diversify macro risks through SAA, setting a long-term allocation benchmark for portfolio stability [2] - TAA employs quantitative methods to identify assets with superior short-term risk-return characteristics, allowing for moderate adjustments in portfolio weights to enhance returns [2] - Major events are subjectively reviewed to calibrate and supplement the quantitative results [2] Equity Market Outlook - The firm holds an optimistic view on Chinese equities, recommending a 45% allocation in November, with overweight positions in A-shares (8.50%) and Hong Kong stocks (8.50%), while maintaining benchmark positions in US (15.00%), European (5.00%), and Japanese stocks (5.00%), and underweight in Indian stocks (3.00%) [3] - The improvement in China-US bilateral relations is seen as beneficial for Chinese assets, supported by stable domestic financial conditions and a favorable fiscal and monetary environment [3] - The demand for quality assets in China continues to surge, driven by a solid development logic [3] Bond Market Outlook - The firm maintains a neutral stance on bonds, suggesting a 45% allocation in October, with benchmark positions in long-term (10.00%) and short-term (12.50%) government bonds, as well as US Treasury bonds [4] - The bond market is supported by an imbalance in credit supply and demand, along with stable liquidity, which enhances the cost-effectiveness of bond allocations [4] - Geopolitical uncertainties and rising risk aversion are expected to lead to wide fluctuations in domestic interest rates [4] Commodity Market Outlook - The firm holds a neutral to slightly optimistic view on commodities, recommending a 10% allocation in October, with benchmark positions in gold (5.00%), underweight in oil (1.25%), and overweight in industrial commodities (3.75%) [4] - Industrial metals, particularly copper, are anticipated to experience performance opportunities due to supply-demand imbalances driven by construction, power grids, and electric vehicles [4] - The rising complexity and cost of copper development may reduce investment willingness, potentially pushing copper prices higher [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that the trend expectations in the AI industry may intensify fluctuations in the global equity market, presenting opportunities for Chinese equity assets and industrial commodities. It recommends an overweight position in Chinese A-shares and industrial commodities for November [1]. Group 1: Asset Allocation Framework - The company has developed an "all-weather" asset allocation framework consisting of Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA), Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA), and Major Event Review Adjustments to guide investment decisions [1]. - SAA aims to diversify macro risks and set long-term allocation benchmarks to ensure portfolio stability [1]. - TAA employs quantitative methods to identify assets with superior short-term risk-return characteristics and adjusts portfolio weights accordingly to enhance returns [1]. Group 2: Equity Market Outlook - The company maintains an optimistic view on Chinese equities, recommending a 45% allocation to equities in November, with specific overweight positions in A-shares (8.5%) and Hong Kong stocks (8.5%) [2]. - The improvement in China-U.S. bilateral relations is seen as beneficial for the performance of Chinese assets [2]. - Domestic financial conditions are stable, with fiscal and monetary policies having room for easing, which supports the capital market's role in the economy [2]. Group 3: Bond Market Outlook - The company holds a neutral stance on bonds, recommending a 45% allocation, including standard positions in long-term (10%) and short-term (12.5%) government bonds, as well as U.S. Treasury bonds [3]. - The bond market is supported by an imbalance in credit supply and demand, along with stable liquidity [3]. - Geopolitical uncertainties and rising risk aversion are expected to lead to fluctuations in domestic interest rates [3]. Group 4: Commodity Market Outlook - The company adopts a neutral to slightly optimistic view on commodities, recommending a 10% allocation, with standard positions in gold (5%) and industrial commodities (3.75%) [3]. - Industrial metals, particularly copper, may experience performance opportunities due to supply-demand imbalances driven by construction, electric grids, and electric vehicles [3]. - The expansion of AI computing power and modernization of the electric grid are expected to create additional structural demand for copper [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that rising geopolitical uncertainties may temporarily increase volatility in global equity markets, while Chinese equity assets and gold may still present performance opportunities. It recommends increasing holdings in AH shares and gold in October, while maintaining a standard allocation to bonds [1]. Group 1: Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) - The framework consists of Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA), Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA), and Major Event Review Adjustments, aimed at guiding investment decisions [1]. - SAA is designed to diversify macro risks and set long-term allocation benchmarks to ensure portfolio robustness [1]. Group 2: Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) - The report is optimistic about Chinese equities, recommending an equity allocation weight of 41.25% for October, with overweight positions in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [2]. - The report indicates that geopolitical uncertainties may create buying opportunities in the Chinese market, suggesting that the current market adjustments are not the end of the upward trend [2]. Group 3: Bond Allocation - The report maintains a neutral stance on bonds, recommending a bond allocation weight of 45% for October, with standard allocations to both long-term and short-term government bonds [3]. - It notes that the imbalance in credit supply and demand, along with stable liquidity, continues to support the bond market [3]. Group 4: Commodity Allocation - The report expresses a neutral to optimistic view on commodities, recommending a commodity allocation weight of 13.75% for October, with an overweight position in gold [3]. - It highlights that gold prices have recently surged past key resistance levels, supported by factors such as Federal Reserve rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions [3].