Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Steel**: Although steel demand is weak, the cost side provides support. For the January contracts, pay attention to the price supports of 3000 for rebar and 3200 for hot-rolled coils. If the hot-rolled coil apparent demand can recover to the 3.25 million tons level at the end of September, the steel inventory pressure will be low. Rebar production is lower than apparent demand, and with losses in tonnage steel profit, it is expected to maintain a de-stocking trend [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Due to the weak operation of steel prices and the continuous decline in the profitability of steel mills, concerns on the supply side and weakness on the demand side will limit iron ore to fluctuate within a range. Pay attention to whether the steel industry implements the ban on new production capacity and production reduction control in the fourth quarter, as well as the progress of China-Australia iron ore negotiations. Macroscopically, focus on the impact of the China-US tariff war and subsequent negotiations. For strategies, iron ore is still in a balanced and slightly tight pattern, and the weakness of finished products drags down raw materials. Temporarily observe on a single side, with the range referring to 750 - 830, and recommend the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot-rolled coils [5]. - **Coke**: Speculative investors are advised to go long on Coke 2601 at low prices, with the range referring to 1550 - 1700. The arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke. Pay attention to the signs of bottom stabilization as the market fluctuates greatly [7]. - **Coking Coal**: It is recommended to go long on Coking Coal 2601 at low prices in the short term, with the range referring to 1080 - 1200. The arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke. Be cautious as the market fluctuates greatly [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined. For example, rebar 05 contract dropped from 3139 to 3114, and hot-rolled coil 05 contract decreased from 3274 to 3248. Steel billet price decreased by 10 to 2930, and plate billet price remained unchanged at 3730. Profits varied, with East China hot-rolled coil profit dropping by 7 to 62 [2]. - **Production**: Daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.3 to 241.5, a 0.1% decline. The output of five major steel products decreased by 3.8 to 863.3, a 0.4% decline. Rebar production decreased by 3.6 to 203.4, a 1.7% decline, with electric furnace output dropping by 2.5 to 23.3, a 9.8% decline [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 127.9 to 1600.7, an 8.7% increase. Rebar inventory increased by 57.4 to 659.6, a 9.5% increase, and hot-rolled coil inventory increased by 32.3 to 412.9, an 8.5% increase [2]. - **Demand**: Apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 153.4 to 751.4, a 17.0% decline. Rebar apparent demand decreased by 87.9 to 153.2, a 36.5% decline, and hot-rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 29.6 to 295.0, a 9.1% decline [2]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased, such as the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines dropping by 19.8 to 830.8, a 2.3% decline. Spot prices at Rizhao Port also declined, for example, the price of Carajás fines decreased by 18.0 to 908.0, a 1.9% decline [5]. - **Supply**: The weekly global shipment volume of iron ore decreased by 71.5 to 3207.5, a 2.2% decline, while the 45-port arrival volume increased by 437.1 to 3045.8, a 16.8% increase. The national monthly import volume increased by 61.5 to 10522.5, a 0.6% increase [5]. - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3 to 241.5, a 0.1% decline. The weekly average daily port clearance volume of 45 ports decreased by 9.4 to 327.0, a 2.8% decline. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 100.5 to 6979.3, a 1.4% decline, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 229.0 to 7736.9, a 2.9% decline [5]. - **Inventory**: The 45-port inventory increased by 61.6 to 14086.14, a 0.4% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 990.6 to 9046.2, a 9.9% decline, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 4.0 to 21.0, a 16.0% decline [5]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of Shanxi quasi-primary wet quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1561, and the price of Shanxi medium-sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) also remained unchanged at 1270. Coke 01 contract increased by 12 to 1655, and coking coal 01 contract increased by 8 to 1154 [7]. - **Supply**: The weekly average daily output of all-sample coking plants remained unchanged at 66.1. The weekly output of coke decreased by 0.3 to 241.5, a 0.1% decline. For coking coal, the output of sample coal mines decreased, with raw coal output decreasing by 31.3 to 836.7, a 3.6% decline, and clean coal output decreasing by 19.8 to 426.3, a 4.4% decline [7]. - **Demand**: The weekly pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3 to 241.5, a 0.1% decline. The weekly demand for coke decreased, and the demand for coking coal also weakened as the coking plant's operation rate decreased slightly [7]. - **Inventory**: Coke total inventory decreased by 10.1 to 909.8, a 1.1% decline. The inventory of all-sample coking plants increased by 1.5 to 63.8, a 2.5% increase, while the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 12.6 to 650.8, a 1.9% decline. For coking coal, the inventory of all-sample coking plants decreased by 78.7 to 959.1, a 7.6% decline, and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 6.9 to 781.1, a 0.9% decline [7].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The short - term macro sentiment is weak due to Sino - US friction, which will cause black metals to decline. There is no trend in the industrial reality. The 1 - month contract of rebar and hot - rolled coil should focus on the support levels around 3000 and 3200 respectively. The steel supply and demand are basically balanced, but the export demand is expected to weaken due to Sino - US friction escalation [2]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs - **Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices mostly declined. Costs and profits showed mixed trends, with some costs increasing slightly and some profits decreasing. The daily average iron - making water output and the output of five major steel products decreased slightly [2]. - **Output**: The daily average iron - making water output was 241.5 (down 0.3 from the previous value, - 0.1%), the output of five major steel products was 863.3 (down 3.8, - 0.4%), and the rebar output was 203.4 (down 3.6, - 1.7%) [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 8.7% to 1600.7, rebar inventory increased by 9.5% to 659.6, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 8.5% to 412.9 [2]. - **Trading and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 7.1%, and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 17.0% [2]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Last week, iron ore futures fluctuated and rose. The supply concerns have weakened, but the demand is weakening due to the decline in steel mill profit margins and the weakening of steel mill restocking demand. The iron ore will fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of iron ore at low prices and carry out an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coil [5][6]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of various iron ore varieties and price indices increased slightly. The spreads between different contracts also changed, with the 5 - 9 spread increasing by 4.9% and the 9 - 1 spread decreasing by 5.0% [5]. - **Supply**: The global shipping volume of iron ore decreased by 5.7% week - on - week, while the 45 - port arrival volume increased by 10.5%. The subsequent average arrival volume is expected to decline [5]. - **Demand**: The daily average iron - making water output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1%, the 45 - port daily average ore - handling volume decreased by 2.8%, and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel output decreased [5]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.3%, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 9.9%, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 16.0% [5]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Coke**: Last week, coke futures fluctuated and rebounded. The supply side has some problems, and the demand is weak. The coke inventory is moderately decreasing. The coke futures may fall again due to the weakening of spot prices and the weakening of steel prices. Attention should be paid to the implementation of capacity reduction in the coking industry and the steel market [10]. - **Coking Coal**: Last week, coking coal futures fluctuated and rebounded. The spot market is weakening, and the demand for restocking is weakening. Although the futures rebounded due to supply - side disturbances, the spot weakness may cause the futures to fall. It is recommended to go short on the 2601 contract of coking coal at high prices and carry out an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal [10]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs - **Prices and Spreads**: Coke and coking coal contract prices showed different trends, with some contracts rising and some falling. The basis and spreads between different contracts also changed [10]. - **Supply**: The output of coking coal mines decreased during the holiday and will gradually resume production. The output of coke and coking coal has changed slightly [10]. - **Demand**: The iron - making water output decreased slightly, and the demand for coke and coking coal restocking is weakening [10]. - **Inventory**: The coke inventory of coking plants increased, while the inventory of steel mills and ports decreased. The coking coal inventory of mines increased, and the inventory of other links decreased [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroeconomic sentiment is warming, market risk appetite is rising, and there is potential for macro - micro resonance. Copper prices are expected to oscillate upwards with a higher center of gravity. It is recommended to try long positions on dips. In the long - term, copper is bullish due to its status as an important strategic resource in the Sino - US game, tight copper concentrate supply, and the booming green copper demand. The focus range for SHFE copper is [78,000, 81,000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [9,650, 9,950] US dollars/ton [6]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Viewpoint Summary - The core view is that with warming macro sentiment and rising market risk appetite, there may be macro - micro resonance, and copper prices will rise with a higher center of gravity. It is advisable to try long positions on dips. The strategy outlook is that although US PPI exceeds expectations and weakens the Fed's rate - cut intensity, the Fed's rate - cut path in September is almost certain. The short - term A - share slow - bull market and commodity anti - involution restlessness in China have increased market risk appetite. Fundamentally, overseas copper mine disruptions coexist with high domestic refined copper production, and the expectation of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is fermenting, with tight domestic social inventories supporting copper prices. In the long - term, copper is promising. The operation strategy is to try long positions on dips [6]. 2. Macroeconomic - **Policy Boosting Consumption**: Three departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans", and nine departments including the Ministry of Finance issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Service Industry Business Entities' Loans". The central bank and other four departments explained these two interest - subsidy policies, which will form a "combination punch" with other policies. In 2025, 188 billion yuan of investment subsidies for equipment renewal supported by ultra - long - term special treasury bonds have been allocated, driving total investment of over 1 trillion yuan. The short - term A - share slow - bull market has increased market risk appetite [8]. - **Sino - US Trade Relations**: The Sino - US Stockholm economic and trade talks issued a joint statement, suspending 24% tariffs for another 90 days. However, the US Congress passed the "2025 Sanctions Against Russia Act", and there are concerns about Sino - US trade relations [9]. - **US Economic Data**: US July PPI data exceeded expectations, weakening the Fed's rate - cut intensity in September. There are differences within the Fed on the rate - cut rhythm. The US dollar index rebounded, and commodities were slightly pressured [10][12]. - **China's Macroeconomic Data**: From January to July, China's industrial added value, manufacturing investment, and social consumption showed different trends. In July, social financing performed well, but credit performance was average [15]. - **US Copper Industry Dilemma**: The US has a high dependence on copper imports. Trump plans to reduce the import dependence from 45% to 30% by 2035. The short - term impact of US copper tariff policies on China's copper product exports is limited [19]. 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Price Performance**: SHFE copper is stronger than overseas copper. The COMEX - LME copper price spread has returned to the normal historical range. LME copper has a negative basis, and domestic electrolytic copper spot has a positive basis [33]. - **Copper Concentrate Supply**: There have been disruptions in copper concentrate supply overseas, but the domestic supply situation has improved marginally. The copper concentrate TC has increased [40]. - **Crude Copper and Scrap Copper Market**: The supply of crude copper and scrap copper is tight, and the price difference between refined and scrap copper has converged, with a weak scrap copper substitution effect [45]. - **Refined Copper Supply and Demand**: The supply of smelters has high elasticity, and the refined copper supply and demand are in a tight balance throughout the year. The production of electrolytic copper may decline in the future due to increased smelter maintenance [50]. - **Downstream Demand**: Currently in the traditional consumption off - season, the downstream processing enterprises' operation rate is weak. However, terminal power and new - energy vehicle demand show resilience [55][60]. - **Inventory Situation**: Overseas copper inventory accumulation has slowed down, while domestic copper social inventory is tight, at a historically low level [70]. - **Speculative Positions**: Speculative net long positions have declined, and the net capital of SHFE copper positions has flowed out [79]. 4. Summary and Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: The Sino - US economic and trade talks and US CPI data initially boosted market confidence, but the US July PPI exceeded expectations, weakening the Fed's rate - cut intensity and pressuring copper prices. China's July social financing was good, but credit was average. The short - term A - share slow - bull market has increased market risk appetite [81]. - **Fundamental - aspect**: Copper concentrate supply has improved marginally, but refined copper production may decline in the future. Currently in the off - season, downstream demand is weak, but it is expected to pick up in the peak season. Overseas inventory accumulation has slowed, and domestic inventory is tight, with power and automotive demand performing well, and the annual copper supply - demand in a tight balance [81]. - **Overall Strategy**: Although the US PPI weakens the Fed's rate - cut intensity, the Fed's rate - cut path in September is almost certain. It is recommended to try long positions on dips, and enterprises should wait for high - level opportunities for selling hedging. In the long - term, copper is bullish [82].