瑞银：因美联储和美元前景上调2026年上半年金价预测，预计金价有望在2026年中期上涨至3,700美元/ 盎司。 来源：金融界AI电报 ...

Core Viewpoint - Central bank gold demand has significantly decreased in Q2, raising concerns about the potential impact on gold prices, which may lead to adjustments in future price expectations [2][3][5]. Group 1: Central Bank Demand Trends - Global central bank gold demand fell by one-third in Q2 compared to Q1, reaching the lowest level since Q2 2022 [2][3]. - The decline in central bank demand is particularly alarming as it has been a key driver of rising gold prices in recent years [5]. - Central bank demand's share in the global gold market has increased from 10% in 2021 to 21% in 2024 [6]. Group 2: Implications for Gold Prices - The slowdown in central bank demand suggests a weakening of the crucial support for gold prices, potentially threatening future price stability [2][3]. - Deutsche Bank's analysis indicates that if the current pace of central bank demand continues, gold price forecasts for 2026 may need to be adjusted downwards from $3,700 per ounce to around $3,600 per ounce [14]. - In extreme scenarios, if annual central bank demand drops to 500 tons, gold price predictions could fall to $3,300 per ounce [14]. Group 3: Forecasting Challenges - Deutsche Bank acknowledges that the slowdown in central bank demand poses a downside risk to its gold price forecasting model, which previously assumed a demand of 1,000 tons in 2025 [12]. - The actual demand in the first half of 2025 was only 415 tons, necessitating a significant increase in the second half to meet annual targets [12]. - The bank has set 375 tons per half-year as a critical threshold for maintaining current price forecasts [14]. Group 4: Potential Demand Drivers - Despite the decline in central bank demand, other sources of investment demand may help offset this shortfall [15]. - Recent policy changes in the U.S. could introduce new demand dynamics for gold, such as including precious metal funds in 401(k) retirement plans [15]. - The asymmetric response of jewelry consumption and gold recycling markets may provide additional support for gold prices [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that ANZ Bank predicts gold prices will rise to $3,500 per ounce by the end of Q3 2025 [1] Group 2 - The forecast indicates a significant increase in gold prices, suggesting a bullish outlook for the gold market [1] - This prediction may influence investment strategies and market sentiment towards gold-related assets [1] - The timeline for this price increase is set for the third quarter of 2025, indicating a medium-term investment horizon [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing volatility ahead of the U.S. non-farm payroll data release, with a focus on potential impacts from employment figures and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations [1][2][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices paused after three days of gains, with attention shifting to the upcoming U.S. non-farm employment data [1]. - The U.S. dollar has seen a temporary halt in its decline, which has exerted bearish pressure on gold prices [3]. - Concerns over the U.S. labor market have resurfaced, contributing to renewed selling pressure on the dollar [3][4]. Group 2: Employment Data Expectations - The market anticipates an increase of 110,000 in non-farm payrolls for June, with the unemployment rate expected to rise slightly to 4.3% from 4.2% in May [7]. - A non-farm payroll figure below 100,000 could intensify selling pressure on the dollar and increase the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in July, which would be favorable for gold prices [8]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - As of the latest data, gold prices are struggling around the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at $3,350, having faced rejection near $3,365 [12]. - The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is above the midpoint, currently close to 52.30, indicating potential buying interest [13]. - A poor U.S. employment report could restore upward momentum towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $3,377, with a significant upward trend possible if prices close above this level [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing volatility, influenced by the Federal Reserve's upcoming statements and concerns over U.S. trade agreements, particularly with Japan, which are affecting the dollar's strength [1][5][7]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold prices found buying support near a monthly low of $3,250, as the market anticipates dovish signals from the Federal Reserve [1]. - The dollar is under pressure, having reached a near four-year low against major currencies, which is contributing to gold's recovery [4][7]. - Concerns regarding U.S. trade agreements, especially with Japan, are overshadowing optimism surrounding trade deals with China and Canada [5][6]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold closed below a key support level, indicating potential for further declines [2]. - The price is attempting to rebound from the $3,250 demand zone, aiming to reclaim the resistance level at $3,297 [14]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50, suggesting that any rebound may be temporary [15]. - If buyers can maintain upward momentum and surpass $3,297, a new rally towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,321 could occur [16]. - On the downside, a break below the intraday low of $3,248 could trigger a move towards the 50% Fibonacci level at $3,232 [18].