金价同时跌破了短期50%斐波那契回撤位，4350.27-4381.44美元区间由此转化为阻力带。日线图表信号 显示，交易员正将目标看向中期50%回撤位4211.60美元与50日均线4174.88美元构成的价值支撑区间。 预计金价测试该区间时，买盘力量将重新入场。 50日均线的地位尤为关键——它同时也是判断趋势的核心指标。自8月中旬以来，该均线一直引导金价 稳步走高。若金价有效跌破这条均线，市场叙事或将从"极度看涨"转向"温和看涨"。 【最新现货黄金行情解析】 摘要今日周四(1月1日)因元旦休市，周三美盘时段，受周一暴跌余波影响，短期空头持续施压长期牛 市，现货黄金早盘震荡走弱。尤为关键的是，金价跌破10月高点4381.44美元，此前押注突破行情的激 进交易者被"甩"在错误方向，这很可能让他们遭遇惨痛亏损，市场多空博弈下的这一走势备受瞩目。 今日周四(1月1日)因元旦休市，周三美盘时段，受周一暴跌余波影响，短期空头持续施压长期牛市，现 货黄金早盘震荡走弱。尤为关键的是，金价跌破10月高点4381.44美元，此前押注突破行情的激进交易 者被"甩"在错误方向，这很可能让他们遭遇惨痛亏损，市场多空博弈下的这一走势备受 ...

摘要12月30日，COMEX黄金库存录得1127.67吨，较上一交易日增加1.00吨；COMEX黄金周二（12月 30日）收360.10美元/盎司，上涨0.17%，comex黄金价格日内最高上探至4420.50美元/盎司，最低触及 4338.80美元/盎司。 12月30日，COMEX黄金库存录得1127.67吨，较上一交易日增加1.00吨；COMEX黄金周二（12月30 日）收360.10美元/盎司，上涨0.17%，comex黄金价格日内最高上探至4420.50美元/盎司，最低触及 4338.80美元/盎司。 【要闻回顾】 最新comex黄金库存数据： 日期 COMEX黄金库存量(吨) 增持（吨） 2025-12-30 1127.67 1.00 2025-12-29 1126.67 1.00 近年来各国央行的购金需求十分强劲，这一态势的形成不仅受宏观经济决策的驱动，也与各国的政策导 向密切相关。"阿蒂加斯称，"如果未来央行持续增持黄金，金价将获得进一步支撑；但如果央行购金量 回落至600-700吨区间以下，那么这一因素将对金价上行形成压制。 世界黄金协会关注的另一大风险点则是黄金回收，尤其是印度市场的回收情况 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】临近年末，贵金属市场表现格外抢眼，价格不断攀升并屡创新高。当地时间12月26日，黄金、白银、铂金等贵金属全线 大幅上涨，再次刷新历史纪录。 "从白银的历史波动率来看，当下已经处于年内最高水平，但相较2024年、2020年的波动率水平仍有上行空间。从短期事件驱动来看，元旦假期临 近，资金或有减仓需求，元旦后市场将迎来美联储主席提名、彭博商品指数调整等事件落地，白银双向波动风险均有提升，投资者需注意持仓风 险。"中信期货在研报中表示。 展望后市，多家国际金融机构预计，到2026年，国际金价有望冲击每盎司5000美元这一整数关口。招商期货研报认为，对于黄金来说，央行购金 需求与美联储宽松预期构成支撑，但高价可能抑制部分投资与实物需求。预计金价将维持高位宽幅震荡，核心区间可能在4000-4800美元/盎司。 对于白银来说，光伏需求增量与显性库存低位支撑价格，但需警惕技术替代的潜在压力等。金银比预计将在50-70美元/盎司的区间内剧烈波动， 其走势将密切反映白银工业属性与金融属性的博弈。 值得一提的是，12月26日，纽商所期铜主力合约价格上涨超过4%。中信期货表示，考虑到当前偏乐观的宏观环境以及日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rapid decline in gold and silver prices is attributed to multiple factors including policy expectations, technical breakdowns, a stronger dollar, and reduced geopolitical risks [3] Price Movements - As of October 24, spot gold fell below $4060 per ounce, dropping over 1.85% during the day [1] - Spot silver touched $47 per ounce, declining over 2% [1] - COMEX gold futures saw a decline of nearly 2%, approaching $4060 per ounce, with a current drop of 1.79% [1] - Current prices include: - London Gold: $4050.228, down $76.262 (-1.85%) [2] - London Silver: $47.850, down $0.996 (-2.04%) [2] - COMEX Gold: $4071.3, down $74.3 (-1.79%) [2] - COMEX Silver: $47.615, down $1.089 (-2.24%) [2] Market Sentiment - U.S. gold stocks fell in pre-market trading, with Coeur Mining down over 4% and both Kinross and Harmony Gold down more than 2% [2] - Citigroup has turned bearish on gold prices, predicting a drop to $4000 within the next three months [3] Long-term Outlook - Despite the short-term decline, long-term support for gold is expected from global economic recession risks and central bank gold purchases, with a projected net increase of over 1000 tons by central banks in 2025 [3] - Investors are advised to closely monitor the upcoming October CPI data (to be released on the 25th) and the Federal Reserve's meeting statements to gauge market direction changes [3]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have reached a historic high due to strengthened expectations of interest rate cuts in the U.S. and a continued weakening of the dollar, with spot gold peaking at $3508.70 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of over 0.7% [1][2] Group 1: Economic Factors - Market expectations for interest rate cuts are primarily driven by recent weak U.S. economic data, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut in the September policy meeting according to CME FedWatch [2] - Key economic indicators include a significant drop in July non-farm payrolls to 73,000, the lowest in nine months, and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, alongside a decline in labor participation rate to 62.2%, the lowest in nearly three years [2] - Manufacturing jobs have seen negative growth for three consecutive months, with a reduction of 11,000 jobs in July [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Rising geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have further supported precious metals, with recent missile attacks by Houthi forces on Israeli oil tankers escalating market risk aversion [2] - Ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and geopolitical tensions in Thailand and Cambodia continue to influence market sentiment [2] Group 3: Physical Demand - Positive trends in physical demand for gold are noted, with China's central bank increasing its gold reserves to 73.96 million ounces, marking a month-on-month increase of 60,000 ounces for the ninth consecutive month [3] - The Saudi central bank's recent purchase of $4 million in silver ETFs indicates a growing trend in silver investment demand [3] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings have risen to 977.68 tons, up from 967.94 tons, reflecting increased investor interest [3] Group 4: Market Outlook - Multiple futures companies maintain an optimistic outlook for precious metals, with Everbright Futures highlighting strong industrial demand for silver as a key driver for price increases [4] - Hongyuan Futures suggests that the dovish signals from Fed Chairman Powell regarding employment trends, combined with ongoing global central bank purchases of gold, may lead to a bullish trend for precious metals [4] - Shanghai Zhongti Futures emphasizes the potential for increased volatility in gold prices, particularly in light of upcoming economic data releases [4] Group 5: Investor Sentiment - Investors are advised to look for buying opportunities on price dips, as the overall trend for gold and silver remains strong amid expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties [5] - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming non-farm payroll data, which could significantly influence the Fed's decision on interest rates and, consequently, precious metal prices [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September are rising, which, combined with weak economic data and potential policy shifts, is expected to significantly boost gold prices [3] - A rate cut will lower the dollar and real interest rates, enhancing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset, while economic uncertainty and potential stagflation risks will further increase safe-haven demand [3] - If the Federal Reserve cuts rates more than expected, gold prices may enter a new upward trend; however, if the policy measures fall short of expectations, a short-term technical correction may occur [3] Group 2 - Gold prices experienced a slight rebound, reaching a peak of $3370 per ounce before closing at $3355.90, with a gain of 0.24% [1] - The current trading price of gold is around $3365 per ounce, with a focus on a potential target of $3378, and a strategy of low buying is recommended [5] - The analysis suggests that if gold breaks above $3378, it could continue to rise towards $3385, while a protective stop is advised at $3355 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Central bank gold demand has significantly decreased in Q2, raising concerns about the potential impact on gold prices, which may lead to adjustments in future price expectations [2][3][5]. Group 1: Central Bank Demand Trends - Global central bank gold demand fell by one-third in Q2 compared to Q1, reaching the lowest level since Q2 2022 [2][3]. - The decline in central bank demand is particularly alarming as it has been a key driver of rising gold prices in recent years [5]. - Central bank demand's share in the global gold market has increased from 10% in 2021 to 21% in 2024 [6]. Group 2: Implications for Gold Prices - The slowdown in central bank demand suggests a weakening of the crucial support for gold prices, potentially threatening future price stability [2][3]. - Deutsche Bank's analysis indicates that if the current pace of central bank demand continues, gold price forecasts for 2026 may need to be adjusted downwards from $3,700 per ounce to around $3,600 per ounce [14]. - In extreme scenarios, if annual central bank demand drops to 500 tons, gold price predictions could fall to $3,300 per ounce [14]. Group 3: Forecasting Challenges - Deutsche Bank acknowledges that the slowdown in central bank demand poses a downside risk to its gold price forecasting model, which previously assumed a demand of 1,000 tons in 2025 [12]. - The actual demand in the first half of 2025 was only 415 tons, necessitating a significant increase in the second half to meet annual targets [12]. - The bank has set 375 tons per half-year as a critical threshold for maintaining current price forecasts [14]. Group 4: Potential Demand Drivers - Despite the decline in central bank demand, other sources of investment demand may help offset this shortfall [15]. - Recent policy changes in the U.S. could introduce new demand dynamics for gold, such as including precious metal funds in 401(k) retirement plans [15]. - The asymmetric response of jewelry consumption and gold recycling markets may provide additional support for gold prices [15].

Group 1: Gold Reserves and Demand - The central bank has increased its gold reserves for the ninth consecutive month, reaching 73.96 million ounces by the end of July, with a month-on-month increase of 60,000 ounces [1][3] - Despite the continuous increase, the increment has remained low for the fifth consecutive month, indicating a cautious approach to gold purchases [3] - Global gold demand in Q2 increased by 3% year-on-year to 1,249 tons, with a significant value increase of 45% to $132 billion [5] Group 2: Central Bank Actions and Market Outlook - Central banks remain a crucial pillar of global gold demand, with official gold reserves increasing by 166 tons in Q2, although the pace of purchases has slowed [6] - UBS expects stable demand from central banks in the second half of the year but has revised its annual purchase forecast down from 950-1,000 tons to 900-950 tons [7] - The Chinese central bank is expected to continue increasing gold reserves to optimize its international reserve structure while gradually reducing U.S. Treasury holdings [8] Group 3: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of July, China's foreign exchange reserves decreased to $32,922 billion, marking a decline of $25.2 billion or 0.76%, ending a six-month upward trend [2][12] - The decline in foreign reserves is attributed to factors such as exchange rate fluctuations and changes in asset prices, with the U.S. dollar index rising by 3.2% [13][14] - The overall financial asset prices in China's foreign reserves increased, which partially offset the impact of the dollar's appreciation [15]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing high volatility and mixed opinions regarding its future trajectory, particularly for the second half of 2025, influenced by geopolitical factors, central bank policies, and economic data [1][5][7]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - Gold prices have shown a significant upward trend earlier this year but have entered a phase of fluctuation since mid-June, with current prices around $3,330 per ounce [1][3]. - As of July 8, 2023, COMEX gold futures were reported at $3,343 per ounce, while London spot gold was at $3,333 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Short-term factors supporting gold prices include expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical uncertainties, and central bank gold purchases [3][5]. - Conversely, potential downward pressures include technical resistance, increased speculative trading, and weak physical demand [3][7]. Group 3: Central Bank Demand - A recent survey indicated that nearly 43% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next year, with 95% expecting continued gold accumulation [5][6]. - China's gold reserves increased to approximately 2,298.55 tons as of June, marking the eighth consecutive month of accumulation [6]. Group 4: Economic Data and Predictions - U.S. economic data and market expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts are critical in determining gold price movements [7]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs and Citigroup express concerns that the anticipated rate cuts may lead to a decrease in gold prices, with Citigroup predicting a drop to between $2,500 and $2,700 per ounce by Q2 2026 [7][8]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term fluctuations, there is a long-term optimistic view on gold's value as a hedge against currency devaluation and inflation, supported by ongoing central bank purchases and a low-interest-rate environment [8].

Group 1 - The international gold price rebounded on June 30, closing above $3,300 per ounce, driven by a weaker US dollar [1] - The most actively traded gold futures for August 2025 rose by $28.9 to $3,315 per ounce, marking an increase of 0.88% [1] - Despite a rise in US stock indices, the US dollar index fell by 0.54% to 96.875, providing additional upward momentum for gold [2] Group 2 - Gold prices reached a one-month low of $3,250.5 during early electronic trading, indicating volatility in the market [2] - The overall performance of gold in June showed a slight increase of 0.06% compared to the end of May, marking the sixth consecutive month of gains, although the growth rate has significantly narrowed [2] - Analysts suggest that central bank gold purchases, geopolitical uncertainties, and loose monetary policies will continue to support the upward trend in gold prices [2] Group 3 - Silver futures for September rose by 16.5 cents to $36.330 per ounce, reflecting a gain of 0.46% [3]