同时，市场开始提前进入观望状态，等待本周密集公布的美国关键宏观数据。市场普遍预期，美国12月 新增就业人数约为6万人，失业率或小幅回落至4.5%。这些数据将为判断美国经济韧性以及美联储未来 的利率路径提供重要线索。 另外，分析师Adam Button表示，市场对ADP就业报告的初步反应较为平淡，但债券市场出现零星买 盘。人工智能将率先冲击专业与商业服务岗位。过去一年来，政府相关的医疗保健职位持续坚挺，而私 营部门就业则举步维艰。 今日周四(1月8日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于78.17一线下方，今日开盘于78.24美元/盎司，截至发 稿，国际白银暂报78.05美元/盎司，下跌0.15%，最高触及78.99美元/盎司，最低下探77.43美元/盎司， 目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 从市场情绪来看，投资者对地缘局势的担忧有所降温，风险偏好出现边际修复，使得避险买盘暂时减 弱。 下一份美国劳工统计局(BLS)非农就业报将于北京时间21:30公布——随着美国政府停摆的影响逐步消 退，经济数据公布正缓慢恢复常态。但令人担忧的是，关于美国政府可能再次停摆的讨论已然浮现。 【最新国际白银行情解析】 ...

格隆汇1月6日｜美国股市周二早盘微涨，延续了开年以来的涨势。投资者正关注本周晚些时候将发布 的、以就业数据为首的一系列经济报告。虽然美军上周末突袭并抓获委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗的 行动在国际政坛引起轰动，但华尔街对此反应冷淡。黄金和美债等部分避险资产走高，但衡量市场恐慌 程度的Cboe波动率指数仍保持低迷，处于16下方。由于贸易局势紧张、经济增长放缓以及AI交易仍存 变数，牛市若想在2026年继续走强仍需多重利好支撑。不过，Vital Knowledge创始人Adam Crisafulli指 出，财政和货币刺激政策仍是市场的后盾。投资者本周将重点研读标普全球服务业PMI以及工厂订单、 失业金申领等数据，以研判美联储的利率路径。 ...

【MSCI亚太指数六连涨】12月26日，亚洲股市小幅上涨，MSCI亚太指数连续第六个交易日走高，并势 创11月底以来最佳单周表现。尽管人们对人工智能和美联储利率路径抱有质疑，但股市多头仍将乐观情 绪寄托于"圣诞行情"，认为这将推动股市再创新高。从历史来看，这种上涨行情会发生在每年的最后五 个交易日和新年的前两个交易日。（彭博） ...

格隆汇12月24日｜美股周三早盘交投清淡，标普500指数维持在历史高位附近，市场正分析劳动力市场 数据以寻找关于美联储利率路径的更多线索。纳斯达克100指数和道指数均变动不大。Sevens Report创 始人汤姆·埃塞耶表示，随着年底临近，投资者正坚定地为经济软着陆定价。他认为，在对于未来几个 季度盈利强劲增长的乐观预期中，股市仍有上行空间。 ...

Group 1: Employment Data - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for November shows an addition of 64,000 jobs, following a decrease of 105,000 jobs in October, indicating a weak labor market [3][9][10] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest since 2021, up from 4.4% in September [3][9][10] - Economists had expected an increase of 45,000 jobs and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.5% [10] Group 2: Retail Sales - U.S. retail sales for October remained flat, primarily due to weak auto and gasoline sales [4][11] - Excluding auto dealers and gas stations, retail sales increased by 0.5% in October [11] Group 3: Market Reactions - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 302.30 points (0.62%), while the Nasdaq rose by 54.05 points (0.23%) [3][8] - WTI crude oil prices dropped below $55, marking a new low since 2021, which pressured the energy sector [3][8] Group 4: Future Outlook - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January remain low, with a 24% probability [6][13] - Despite recent declines in major stock indices, there is optimism for a potential upturn in the U.S. stock market, with all sectors of the S&P 500 likely to record annual gains [6][13]

华侨 银行投资研究部在一份报告中称，美联储的利率路径可能主导新加坡上市 不动产投资信托的单位 价格表现。该研究团队预计，与市场预期相比，美联储2026年的降息步伐将"更为稳健"。他们称，华侨 银行预期的利率轨迹可能抑制REITs的价格表现。他们指出，不过，在利率环境更为有利的背景下， REITs明年的每单位派息增长或将迎来一个拐点。但这些分析师补充说，利息成本节约带来的有利因素 在各REITs之间可能并不均衡，具体取决于其对冲和债务到期状况。零售仍是华侨银行青睐的子行业， 其次是侧重于 数据中心的 物流和工业REITs。首选股包括凯德商用新加坡信托和吉宝数据中心 房地产 投资信托。 ...

Group 1 - The three major U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising over 1% to reach a record closing high [1] - The Dow Jones ETF increased nearly 3%, setting a new all-time high [1] - The S&P Biotechnology ETF rose over 4%, while the Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF gained over 2% [1] Group 2 - Analysts believe that Wall Street is betting on the potential end of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, leading to optimistic investor sentiment [2] - Investors are hopeful that upcoming official economic data will provide more insights into the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strengthening of the US dollar amidst global market volatility driven by tech stock earnings and unclear central bank policies, highlighting a shift in market sentiment towards safer assets like the dollar [1][6]. Group 1: US Dollar Dynamics - The US dollar index stabilized at 99.5, reaching a three-month high due to risk-averse sentiment following a decline in US stocks [1]. - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate path have shifted, with traders reducing bets on a rate cut in December, enhancing the appeal of dollar assets [6][8]. - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to approximately 4.1%, reflecting the changing market expectations and increasing the relative attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [8]. Group 2: Japanese Yen Performance - The Japanese yen stabilized after reaching a near nine-month low, supported by comments from the new Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, who indicated a heightened monitoring of foreign exchange trends [3][7]. - Despite a slight rebound, the yen has depreciated by 4% against the dollar over the past month, marking its worst monthly performance since July [3]. - Tokyo's core consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.8% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations and complicating the Bank of Japan's position on maintaining interest rates [7]. Group 3: Other Major Currencies - The euro appreciated to 1.156 against the dollar, following the European Central Bank's decision to keep rates unchanged at 2% for the third consecutive meeting [11]. - The British pound remained stable at 1.31555 against the dollar, amid political pressures faced by the UK Chancellor [15]. - Commodity currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars showed weakness, with the Australian dollar down 0.1% to 0.65495 and the New Zealand dollar down 0.2% to 0.57325, reflecting global risk aversion [15].

Core Viewpoint - After experiencing a significant drop, international gold prices have stabilized above $4,100 per ounce, despite a volatile week where prices reached a historical high of $4,398 before falling sharply [4][8]. Market Trends - As of October 24, 2023, London spot gold was reported at $4,101 per ounce, with a daily decline of 1.06% [4]. - The week saw gold prices fluctuate dramatically, with a drop exceeding 6% on October 21, marking the largest single-day decline in nearly 12 years [4]. - Despite high volatility, interest in gold investment remains strong, particularly among younger investors, with over 55% of online gold product investors being born in the 1990s and 2000s [4][5]. Investment Behavior - Young investors are characterized by a preference for small, frequent investments over long periods, with over 890 million people engaging in gold ETF regular investments, and 40% of these being post-95 investors [6]. - Following the National Day holiday, searches for "gold" on Alipay surged fivefold compared to the previous year, indicating heightened interest in gold investments [6]. - The number of individuals purchasing gold accumulation and gold ETF funds post-holiday was 1.8 times that of the same period before the holiday [6]. Institutional Insights - Despite a significant drop in gold prices, the year-to-date increase remains over 50%, with institutions emphasizing the importance of high volatility as a key consideration [8]. - Analysts suggest that while central bank purchases and increased investment demand will support gold prices in the medium to long term, short-term adjustments and volatility risks should be acknowledged [8][9]. - The upcoming U.S. economic data release is anticipated to influence future gold price movements, with analysts noting that the $4,000 level has become a battleground for buyers and sellers [8][9]. Long-term Outlook - Central bank purchases and a weakening of the U.S. dollar's credibility are expected to support gold prices in the long run [9]. - Institutional investors continue to maintain high positions in gold ETFs, with record inflows of $26 billion in September [10][11]. - UBS forecasts that macroeconomic uncertainties, including geopolitical factors and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, will sustain demand for defensive assets, maintaining a year-end gold price target of $4,200 per ounce [11]. - Goldman Sachs projects that gold prices could reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by increased allocations from various long-term capital investors [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the impact of geopolitical risks and economic data on gold prices, highlighting a recent rebound in gold due to increased demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions and upcoming U.S. inflation data [1][2][3] - Gold prices experienced a significant rebound, closing at $4,125.93 per ounce after rising $27.58, following a two-day decline, primarily driven by renewed geopolitical risks from U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies [1][2] - The upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is anticipated to influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with economists predicting a year-on-year CPI increase of 3.1%, which could bolster expectations for further rate cuts and benefit non-yielding assets like gold [1][2] Group 2 - The current gold market is characterized by a large range of fluctuations, with key resistance levels identified between $4,160 and $4,185, which need to be surpassed for a bullish trend to be confirmed [3][5] - Technical analysis indicates that if gold prices break below the $4,004 level, a bearish trend may continue, while a stabilization above $4,160 could confirm a double bottom pattern, potentially leading to a rally towards the $4,200 area [3][5] - The articles suggest a trading strategy focused on short positions around $4,145 to $4,150, with a target of $4,100 to $4,050, while also considering long positions near $4,005 to $4,010, emphasizing the importance of strict risk management [6][5]