美股三大指数昨日涨跌互现，道琼斯工业平均指数涨超1%，创下收盘纪录新高。 受盘面影响，道琼斯ETF涨近3%，创上市新高。 | 代码 | 类型 名称 | | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159502 | 跨 | 标普生物科技ETF T+0 | 1.209 | 0.047 | 4.04% | | 513400 | ଚ | 道琼斯ETF T+0 | 1.285 | 0.036 | 2.88% | | 513290 | 跨 | 纳指生物科技ETF T+0 | 1.476 | 0.041 | 2.86% | 有分析认为，华尔街押注美国历史上持续时间最长的政府停摆有望很快结束，并且投资者乐观预期官方 经济数据料为美联储利率路径提供更多线索。 此外，标普生物科技ETF涨超4%，纳指生物科技ETF涨超2%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strengthening of the US dollar amidst global market volatility driven by tech stock earnings and unclear central bank policies, highlighting a shift in market sentiment towards safer assets like the dollar [1][6]. Group 1: US Dollar Dynamics - The US dollar index stabilized at 99.5, reaching a three-month high due to risk-averse sentiment following a decline in US stocks [1]. - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate path have shifted, with traders reducing bets on a rate cut in December, enhancing the appeal of dollar assets [6][8]. - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to approximately 4.1%, reflecting the changing market expectations and increasing the relative attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [8]. Group 2: Japanese Yen Performance - The Japanese yen stabilized after reaching a near nine-month low, supported by comments from the new Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, who indicated a heightened monitoring of foreign exchange trends [3][7]. - Despite a slight rebound, the yen has depreciated by 4% against the dollar over the past month, marking its worst monthly performance since July [3]. - Tokyo's core consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.8% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations and complicating the Bank of Japan's position on maintaining interest rates [7]. Group 3: Other Major Currencies - The euro appreciated to 1.156 against the dollar, following the European Central Bank's decision to keep rates unchanged at 2% for the third consecutive meeting [11]. - The British pound remained stable at 1.31555 against the dollar, amid political pressures faced by the UK Chancellor [15]. - Commodity currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars showed weakness, with the Australian dollar down 0.1% to 0.65495 and the New Zealand dollar down 0.2% to 0.57325, reflecting global risk aversion [15].

作者 | 第一财经 齐琦 经历暴跌后，国际金价重新站稳每盎司4100美元关口。 截至10月24日北京时间14:33，伦敦现货黄金报4101美元/盎司，日内跌幅1.06%。 回顾这一周，国际金价上演"超级过山车"行情，在周一（10月20日）冲上每盎司4398美元历史高 位后掉头向下，10月21日晚，伦敦现货黄金盘中突然暴跌超6%，创下近12年以来最大单日跌幅， 且周三最低触及4021美元/盎司。 尽管金价处于历史高位区间，但大众投资热情并未降温。据蚂蚁财富统计，平台最新数据显示，年轻 人现为线上黄金投资主力，平台黄金产品投资者中90后和00后占比超55%。 高位波动未阻"淘金"热潮 2025.10. 24 本文字数：1681，阅读时长大约3分钟 虽然金价在本周一度大跌超300美元，但黄金的年内涨幅目前仍超过50%。 关注高波动仍是机构提示的关键词。南华期货分析称，尽管从中长期维度看，央行购金与投资需求增 长仍将助推贵金属价格重心继续上抬，但短期进入调整阶段，高波动风险不容忽视。 永赢黄金股ETF基金经理刘庭宇分析称，当前黄金期权的隐含波动率处于历史高位水平，资产拥挤度 较高，短期需要注意风险、理性投资。随着市场 ...

换资前言： 要想在这个市场里长久持续的走下去，必须有一套完整的交易体系，包括仓位技巧、风险控制和技术体 系，这样的话，能在震荡行情中，给你明确的指引，即便利润小，但是很轻松，也很有成就感；单边行 情中，能让你胸中有趋势，如果看对了，争取利润最大化，而看错了的时候，能控制好风险，并能客观 调整思路，顺着趋势扭亏为盈，而不是盲目主观的坚持自己的思路，盲目加仓反向码单，置仓于风险边 缘。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周五（北京时间10月24日）亚市早盘，现货黄金交投于4132美元/盎司附近，周四金价上涨超1%，因地 缘政治风险再起刺激了避险需求，而且投资者在为周五公布的美国关键通胀数据做准备；黄金价格周四 显著反弹，结束此前连续两日下跌的颓势，主要原因是美国制裁俄罗斯两大石油巨头之后，地缘政治风 险再起，激励了避险需求。现货黄金周四收盘上涨27.58美元，报4125.93美元/盎司；金价周三曾跌至近 两周低点。黄金价格在周四迎来显著回升，此前连续两个交易日出现看跌蜡烛图，主要源于交易者在9 月美国消费者物价指数（CPI）报告发布前获利了结。然而，随着买家重新入场，金价迅速收复失地， ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 反之，他们补充称，若失业率突然飙升，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）或采取更激进的降息措施。 巴克莱预计，在2026年FOMC将维持利率不变，直到出现月度通胀数据放缓的迹象，并确信通胀正回归 2%目标的轨道。 新华财经北京9月18日电巴克莱经济学家指出，美联储利率路径的风险正倾向于推迟降息。他们在研究 报告中表示，若2026年初通胀数据持续显示价格强劲上涨，或关税政策在失业率温和上升背景下推动非 商品领域价格上涨，则可能出现这种情况。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street traders expect the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report to show persistent inflation, but do not anticipate significant market reactions due to employment data dominating the narrative [1] Group 1: Market Reactions and Predictions - Options traders are betting on a mild 0.7% fluctuation in the S&P 500 index following the CPI report, which is lower than the average 0.9% fluctuation observed over the past year [1] - Current implied volatility is considered high, depending on traders' predictions regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [1] - The market is pricing in over a 1% rate cut from the Federal Reserve over the next year, but rising inflation could disrupt this expectation [1][3] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - Barclays economists now predict three rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, with two additional cuts in 2026 [3] - If the CPI report shows a significant rise in consumer prices, inflation could accelerate towards the end of the year and extend into 2026, potentially leading the Federal Reserve to maintain rates in October and December [3] Group 3: Core CPI Predictions and Market Impact - Economists forecast a 0.3% month-over-month increase in the core CPI for August, resulting in a year-over-year increase of 3.1%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target [4] - The most likely scenario for core CPI is a month-over-month increase between 0.3% and 0.35%, with the S&P 500 expected to fluctuate between a decline of 0.25% and an increase of 0.5% [4][5] - If core CPI rises above 0.4%, the S&P 500 could drop by up to 2%, although this scenario has only a 5% probability [5][6] Group 4: Economic Growth and Market Sentiment - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model indicates a robust 3% annualized growth rate for Q3, slightly down from 3.3% in Q2, contributing to low risk expectations among traders [5] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) remains below the critical 20 level, indicating low market concern [5] - The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index is nearing its highest level since January, suggesting that positive economic surprises could complicate the Federal Reserve's inflation control efforts [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in gold prices and the market's reaction to potential U.S. tariffs on gold bars, alongside the focus on upcoming U.S. inflation data that may influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Reaction - On August 11, gold prices fell sharply, with London gold down over 1.5% and COMEX gold down over 2.6% [1]. - The decline followed rumors of a new tariff on imported gold bars, which had previously driven COMEX gold to a new high on August 8 [2]. - Reports indicated that the U.S. government planned to classify gold bars for taxation, causing market turmoil, but subsequent clarifications from the White House aimed to stabilize the situation [2]. Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - Market attention is shifting towards U.S. inflation data, with the upcoming CPI and PPI reports expected to provide insights into the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategy [3]. - As of August 11, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 9.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 90.7% [3]. - If inflation data exceeds expectations, it may hinder the recent upward trend in U.S. stock markets and reignite concerns about stagflation; conversely, lower-than-expected CPI could bolster expectations for rate cuts, potentially pushing gold prices above the psychological level of $3,400 [3]. Group 3: U.S. Stock Market Performance - As of the latest update, U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.34%, the Nasdaq up 0.09%, and the S&P 500 down 0.06% [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a slight increase during Asian trading hours, potentially indicating a technical rebound after a significant drop earlier [1] Group 1: Price Movement - Spot gold rose by 0.2% to $3,347.81 per ounce [1] - The price decline on Monday marked the largest drop in three months [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - President Trump clarified on social media that gold would not be subject to tariffs, which contributed to the price movement [1] - Reports of potential tariffs on gold bars last Friday led to a surge in gold prices, reaching historical highs [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Traders are closely monitoring the upcoming release of the U.S. July CPI data for insights into the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have significantly declined, with both spot and futures prices dropping sharply, leading to increased attention on social media platforms [1][2]. Price Movements - As of the latest update, London gold has decreased by over 1.5%, while COMEX gold has fallen by more than 2.6% [2]. - Specific price changes include: - London gold: 3346.170, down 52.409, a decrease of 1.54% [3] - London silver: 37.743, down 0.574, a decrease of 1.50% [3] - COMEX gold: 3399.9, down 91.4, a decrease of 2.62% [3] - COMEX silver: 37.820, down 0.722, a decrease of 1.87% [3] Market Influences - The recent drop in gold prices was influenced by rumors regarding "gold bar tariffs," which initially caused COMEX gold to reach a new high on August 8. Reports indicated that the U.S. government planned to impose tariffs on imported gold bars [4]. - Following these rumors, the White House is expected to clarify the situation, which may help stabilize the market and reduce confusion regarding gold import tariffs [4]. Economic Indicators - Market focus has shifted to U.S. inflation data, which is crucial for determining the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. As of August 11, the probability of the Fed maintaining rates in September is 9.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 90.7% [5]. - Upcoming U.S. CPI and PPI data releases are anticipated to impact market sentiment. Higher-than-expected inflation could hinder the recent upward trend in U.S. equities, while lower-than-expected CPI could reinforce expectations for rate cuts, potentially pushing gold prices above the psychological level of $3400 [5]. Stock Market Performance - As of the latest update, U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones down 0.34%, while the Nasdaq gained 0.09% [6]. - Specific index performances include: - Dow Jones Industrial Average: 44023.73, down 151.88, a decrease of 0.34% [7] - Nasdaq Composite: 21469.93, up 19.91, an increase of 0.09% [7] - S&P 500: 6385.81, down 3.64, a decrease of 0.06% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant drop in gold prices, influenced by rumors of new tariffs on gold bars imported into the U.S. and the upcoming U.S. inflation data that could impact Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [2][5]. Group 1: Gold Market Reaction - On August 11, both gold futures and spot prices fell sharply, with London gold down over 1.5% and COMEX gold down over 2.6% [3][4]. - The price of London gold was reported at 3346.170, down 52.409, or -1.54%, while COMEX gold was at 3399.9, down 91.4, or -2.62% [4]. Group 2: Tariff Rumors and Market Impact - The drop in gold prices followed reports of the U.S. government imposing tariffs on imported gold bars, which initially caused COMEX gold to reach a new high on August 8 [4]. - A subsequent report from Bloomberg indicated that the White House planned to clarify the tariff situation, which could help stabilize the market and reduce confusion regarding gold import tariffs [4]. Group 3: U.S. Economic Indicators - Market focus has shifted to upcoming U.S. inflation data, with expectations that higher-than-expected inflation could hinder the recent upward trend in U.S. stock markets [5]. - The CME "FedWatch" tool indicated a 90.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with various probabilities for future rate cuts [5].