北京时间2月21日凌晨，美股周五尾盘走高。美国第四季度GDP仅增长1.4%，远远低于市场预期，12月 通胀远高于美联储2%的目标。美国最高法院驳回特朗普的全球关税政策后，特朗普称将根据不同法律 授权继续征收全球关税。 道指涨124.19点，涨幅为0.25%，报49519.35点；纳指涨170.66点，涨幅为0.75%，报22853.39点；标普 500指数涨37.57点，涨幅为0.55%，报6899.46点。 美国官方周五公布的数据显示，2025年接近年底时，美国经济增长放缓，而通胀依然坚挺，这可能会使 美联储的利率路径复杂化。 根据美国商务部经季节性和通胀因素调整后的数据，国内生产总值年化增长率仅为1.4%。接受道琼斯 调查的经济学家此前预计增长率为2.5%。而第三季度4.4%的增幅则远超预期。 这份数据令交易员们对美国经济增长持悲观看法。 剔除食品和能源价格的核心PCE指数12月份上涨了3%。这一数据与市场普遍预期相符，但使这一关键 通胀指标仍远高于美联储2%的目标。 美联储政策制定者内部存在分歧，一派忧心忡忡的官员们支持劳动力市场，另一派则更关注通胀。 美国物价上涨速度总体呈下降趋势，但通胀率仍高于央行 ...

Group 1 - The international silver market is currently trading below $78.17, with a recent price of $78.05, reflecting a decrease of 0.15% [1] - Market sentiment shows a reduction in concerns over geopolitical issues, leading to a marginal recovery in risk appetite and a temporary weakening of safe-haven buying [1] - Investors are entering a wait-and-see mode ahead of the release of key U.S. macroeconomic data, with expectations of approximately 60,000 new jobs added in December and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.5% [1] Group 2 - The silver market opened at $81.256, reached a high of $82.764, and then fell to a low of $76.323 before closing at $78.146, indicating a significant bearish trend [2] - Technical adjustments are noted, with key support levels identified at $37.8, $50.75, and $52.7, while stop-loss levels are set at $68 [2] - Today's trading strategy suggests a short position at $81 with a stop-loss at $81.3, targeting levels of $80, $79.2, $78.5, and $78, with further breakdown levels at $77.3 and $76.3 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a slight increase in early trading on Tuesday, continuing its upward trend since the beginning of the year, with investors focusing on upcoming economic reports, particularly employment data [1] Economic Indicators - Key economic reports to be released this week include the S&P Global Services PMI, factory orders, and unemployment claims, which will help assess the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [1] Market Reactions - Despite the significant geopolitical event involving the U.S. military's capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, Wall Street's reaction was muted, indicating a lack of immediate concern among investors [1] - Safe-haven assets such as gold and U.S. Treasuries saw an increase, while the Cboe Volatility Index, which measures market fear, remained low, staying below 16 [1] Market Outlook - The continuation of the bull market into 2026 is contingent upon multiple favorable factors, given the current tensions in trade, slowing economic growth, and uncertainties surrounding AI trading [1] - Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, emphasized that fiscal and monetary stimulus policies continue to support the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index has risen for six consecutive trading days, marking its best weekly performance since late November, despite concerns over artificial intelligence and the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Asian stock markets experienced a slight increase on December 26, contributing to the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index's six-day rally [1] - The index is expected to achieve its best weekly performance since the end of November [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Market bulls remain optimistic, attributing their positive sentiment to the "Santa Rally," which is believed to drive stock prices to new highs [1] - Historically, such upward trends typically occur during the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the new year [1]

格隆汇12月24日｜美股周三早盘交投清淡，标普500指数维持在历史高位附近，市场正分析劳动力市场 数据以寻找关于美联储利率路径的更多线索。纳斯达克100指数和道指数均变动不大。Sevens Report创 始人汤姆·埃塞耶表示，随着年底临近，投资者正坚定地为经济软着陆定价。他认为，在对于未来几个 季度盈利强劲增长的乐观预期中，股市仍有上行空间。 ...

Group 1: Employment Data - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for November shows an addition of 64,000 jobs, following a decrease of 105,000 jobs in October, indicating a weak labor market [3][9][10] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest since 2021, up from 4.4% in September [3][9][10] - Economists had expected an increase of 45,000 jobs and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.5% [10] Group 2: Retail Sales - U.S. retail sales for October remained flat, primarily due to weak auto and gasoline sales [4][11] - Excluding auto dealers and gas stations, retail sales increased by 0.5% in October [11] Group 3: Market Reactions - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 302.30 points (0.62%), while the Nasdaq rose by 54.05 points (0.23%) [3][8] - WTI crude oil prices dropped below $55, marking a new low since 2021, which pressured the energy sector [3][8] Group 4: Future Outlook - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January remain low, with a 24% probability [6][13] - Despite recent declines in major stock indices, there is optimism for a potential upturn in the U.S. stock market, with all sectors of the S&P 500 likely to record annual gains [6][13]

华侨 银行投资研究部在一份报告中称，美联储的利率路径可能主导新加坡上市 不动产投资信托的单位 价格表现。该研究团队预计，与市场预期相比，美联储2026年的降息步伐将"更为稳健"。他们称，华侨 银行预期的利率轨迹可能抑制REITs的价格表现。他们指出，不过，在利率环境更为有利的背景下， REITs明年的每单位派息增长或将迎来一个拐点。但这些分析师补充说，利息成本节约带来的有利因素 在各REITs之间可能并不均衡，具体取决于其对冲和债务到期状况。零售仍是华侨银行青睐的子行业， 其次是侧重于 数据中心的 物流和工业REITs。首选股包括凯德商用新加坡信托和吉宝数据中心 房地产 投资信托。 ...

Group 1 - The three major U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising over 1% to reach a record closing high [1] - The Dow Jones ETF increased nearly 3%, setting a new all-time high [1] - The S&P Biotechnology ETF rose over 4%, while the Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF gained over 2% [1] Group 2 - Analysts believe that Wall Street is betting on the potential end of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, leading to optimistic investor sentiment [2] - Investors are hopeful that upcoming official economic data will provide more insights into the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strengthening of the US dollar amidst global market volatility driven by tech stock earnings and unclear central bank policies, highlighting a shift in market sentiment towards safer assets like the dollar [1][6]. Group 1: US Dollar Dynamics - The US dollar index stabilized at 99.5, reaching a three-month high due to risk-averse sentiment following a decline in US stocks [1]. - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate path have shifted, with traders reducing bets on a rate cut in December, enhancing the appeal of dollar assets [6][8]. - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to approximately 4.1%, reflecting the changing market expectations and increasing the relative attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [8]. Group 2: Japanese Yen Performance - The Japanese yen stabilized after reaching a near nine-month low, supported by comments from the new Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, who indicated a heightened monitoring of foreign exchange trends [3][7]. - Despite a slight rebound, the yen has depreciated by 4% against the dollar over the past month, marking its worst monthly performance since July [3]. - Tokyo's core consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.8% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations and complicating the Bank of Japan's position on maintaining interest rates [7]. Group 3: Other Major Currencies - The euro appreciated to 1.156 against the dollar, following the European Central Bank's decision to keep rates unchanged at 2% for the third consecutive meeting [11]. - The British pound remained stable at 1.31555 against the dollar, amid political pressures faced by the UK Chancellor [15]. - Commodity currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars showed weakness, with the Australian dollar down 0.1% to 0.65495 and the New Zealand dollar down 0.2% to 0.57325, reflecting global risk aversion [15].

Core Viewpoint - After experiencing a significant drop, international gold prices have stabilized above $4,100 per ounce, despite a volatile week where prices reached a historical high of $4,398 before falling sharply [4][8]. Market Trends - As of October 24, 2023, London spot gold was reported at $4,101 per ounce, with a daily decline of 1.06% [4]. - The week saw gold prices fluctuate dramatically, with a drop exceeding 6% on October 21, marking the largest single-day decline in nearly 12 years [4]. - Despite high volatility, interest in gold investment remains strong, particularly among younger investors, with over 55% of online gold product investors being born in the 1990s and 2000s [4][5]. Investment Behavior - Young investors are characterized by a preference for small, frequent investments over long periods, with over 890 million people engaging in gold ETF regular investments, and 40% of these being post-95 investors [6]. - Following the National Day holiday, searches for "gold" on Alipay surged fivefold compared to the previous year, indicating heightened interest in gold investments [6]. - The number of individuals purchasing gold accumulation and gold ETF funds post-holiday was 1.8 times that of the same period before the holiday [6]. Institutional Insights - Despite a significant drop in gold prices, the year-to-date increase remains over 50%, with institutions emphasizing the importance of high volatility as a key consideration [8]. - Analysts suggest that while central bank purchases and increased investment demand will support gold prices in the medium to long term, short-term adjustments and volatility risks should be acknowledged [8][9]. - The upcoming U.S. economic data release is anticipated to influence future gold price movements, with analysts noting that the $4,000 level has become a battleground for buyers and sellers [8][9]. Long-term Outlook - Central bank purchases and a weakening of the U.S. dollar's credibility are expected to support gold prices in the long run [9]. - Institutional investors continue to maintain high positions in gold ETFs, with record inflows of $26 billion in September [10][11]. - UBS forecasts that macroeconomic uncertainties, including geopolitical factors and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, will sustain demand for defensive assets, maintaining a year-end gold price target of $4,200 per ounce [11]. - Goldman Sachs projects that gold prices could reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by increased allocations from various long-term capital investors [11].