招商银行研究院继续分章节为您推送《 开局之年——2026年宏观经济与资本市场展望 》 本篇为文章第二、三部分， 海外宏观：美强欧弱；海外策略：美债牛陡，美股缓升。 更多精彩之后将陆续推送，敬请期待。 ■ 展望2026，海外经济延续"美强欧弱"，货币政策"美降欧停"。 美国经济维持平稳增长，消费与投资 受中期选举年财政支撑，出口则将受益于美国贸易政策。经济结构或延续K型分化，幅度边际收敛。政治 干预下，美联储立场或趋于鸽派，降息3次至3%附近。欧洲经济复苏动能或边际衰减。值得警惕的是，日 本经济或陷入"滞胀"泥淖，通胀压力下日央行或被迫加息，与美欧央行逆向而行，导致其主权债务风险继 续发酵，全球流动性可能再度面临日元套息交易逆转的冲击。 ■ " 十 五 五 " 规 划 的 开 局 之 年 承 载 着 " 开 好 局 、 起 好 步 " 的 重 要 使 命 。 我 国 经 济 增 速 有 望 达 到 4.8%，呈现外需企稳、内需改善、价格修复的特征。从"三驾马车"看，美元计出口增速有望达 到5%，韧性主要源于国际经贸斗争边际缓和与我国产业链韧性。社零增速有望上行至4.5%，主 要得益于大力提振消费政策。固定资产投 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference discusses the current state and future potential of AI across various industries, particularly focusing on the U.S. and China [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58][59][60][61][62][63][64][65][66][67][68][69][70][71][72][73]. Core Insights and Arguments - **AI Adoption and Application**: AI penetration in the workplace is around 20%, which is lower than personal use. Companies need to enhance the intensity of AI application rather than just its speed of adoption [1][2][4][5][9][12][18]. - **Impact on Employment**: AI is primarily enhancing efficiency rather than causing widespread layoffs. Jobs requiring high decision-making skills, such as financial analysts, are expected to grow by 9.5% [1][7][11][12][19]. - **Economic Contribution**: AI's direct contribution to U.S. GDP is minimal, with data center construction accounting for only 0.1% and IT investments less than 4%. Labor productivity has improved but remains below levels seen in the 1990s [1][8][12][19]. - **Investment Trends**: The U.S. leads in private AI investment, with significant capital expenditures in AI infrastructure. Companies like MaxLinear have seen rapid growth in capital expenditures since 2022 [4][12][15][18]. - **Data Quality and Ecosystem**: The quality of data is crucial for AI output. Companies must build a culture of human-machine collaboration and reshape processes to leverage AI effectively [3][21][23][24][25][28]. - **Future Economic Impact**: If AI can significantly boost productivity, it could lead to a "Goldilocks economy" in the U.S. characterized by low inflation and high growth, while also helping China close the GDP gap with the U.S. [2][11][12][19]. Additional Important Insights - **AI's Evolution**: The current AI wave is likened to the mobile internet around 2010, indicating a commercial tipping point with strong performance in tech stocks [3][15][18]. - **Challenges in AI Integration**: Companies face challenges in integrating AI into workflows, primarily due to data security concerns and a lack of understanding of how to apply AI effectively [69]. - **Sector-Specific Impacts**: Industries such as advertising, education, and SaaS are significantly influenced by AI, with companies like Meta and Duolingo showing improved financial performance due to AI applications [59][60][61][62]. - **Long-Term Trends**: The development of AI will require a focus on data, computing power, and algorithms, with a need for companies to secure computing resources to stay competitive [28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57][58][59][60][61][62][63][64][65][66][67][68][69][70][71][72][73]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of AI, its economic implications, and the challenges and opportunities it presents across various sectors.