证券研究报告·公司深度研究·白酒Ⅱ 贵州茅台（600519） 营销改革复盘专题：笃行不怠，臻于至善 2026 年 03 月 03 日 买入（维持） 证券分析师 苏铖 执业证书：S0600524120010 such@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 孙瑜 执业证书：S0600523120002 suny@dwzq.com.cn 股价走势 -8% -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 22% 2025/3/3 2025/7/2 2025/10/31 2026/3/1 贵州茅台 沪深300 | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 150,560 | 174,144 | 183,022 | 185,125 | 194,493 | | 同比（%） | 18.04 | 15.66 | 5.10 | 1.15 | 5.06 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 74,734 | 86,228 | 90,1 ...

证券研究报告·公司深度研究·白酒Ⅱ 贵州茅台（600519） 营销改革复盘专题：笃行不怠，臻于至善 2026 年 03 月 03 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 150,560 | 174,144 | 183,022 | 185,125 | 194,493 | | 同比（%） | 18.04 | 15.66 | 5.10 | 1.15 | 5.06 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 74,734 | 86,228 | 90,107 | 90,139 | 93,980 | | 同比（%） | 19.16 | 15.38 | 4.50 | 0.04 | 4.26 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 59.68 | 68.86 | 71.96 | 71.98 | 75.05 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 24.13 | 20.91 | 20.01 | 20.01 | 19.19 | [T ...

Summary of Moutai Conference Call Company Overview - The conference call discusses Moutai's strategic adjustments in product structure and pricing strategy to enhance market positioning and sales performance. Key Points Product Structure and Pricing Strategy - Moutai aims to create a pyramid-shaped product matrix with clear price bands: - Below 1,000 RMB: 1,935 series - 1,500-2,000 RMB: Flying Fairy series - 2,000-3,000 RMB: Boutique series - Above 4,000 RMB: 15-year series - This structure is designed to avoid product cannibalization and ensure reasonable price differences between products [1][2][3] - The company plans to reduce non-standard small packaging (e.g., 100ml, 200ml) to stabilize the market position of the 500ml Flying Fairy, aiming to increase market share and opening rates [1][4][5] - Moutai intends to position the Boutique Moutai as a major product with a target price above 2,000 RMB, potentially achieving over 50 billion RMB in sales by 2025 [1][9] Sales and Volume Adjustments - In 2026, Moutai will reduce the sales volume of certain products, including a 50% reduction for rare Moutai and a 30% reduction for 15-year and small packaging products [2][30] - The company plans to maintain a stable supply of the Flying Fairy at a retail price of 1,499 RMB, even during high demand periods like the Spring Festival [11][15] Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - Moutai recognizes that small packaging has a narrow audience and does not complement the Flying Fairy, leading to a decision to reduce these offerings [5][6] - The company will implement a strategy to control the market price of Flying Fairy by requiring additional purchases of Boutique or 15-year products [14] Future Product Development - Moutai is exploring two potential directions for Zodiac products: changing the volume to 700ml or 750ml and personalizing them based on consumer birthdays to enhance collectability [10] - The pricing strategy for major products is as follows: - 1,935 series: approximately 600 RMB - 500ml classic: around 1,600 RMB - Boutique Moutai: around 2,500 RMB - 15-year aged: above 4,000 RMB - This aims to create clear positioning and avoid price volatility [8] Distribution and Channel Strategy - Moutai plans to adopt a consignment model to expand e-commerce, retail, and dining channels, ensuring products reach consumers effectively [17][18] - The company will assess distributors based on task completion, market price control, and the ability to develop new channels [21][22] Financial Projections and Market Budget - Moutai's market expense budget for 2026 will remain the same as in 2025, aiming for a slight increase in sales (3%-5%) while controlling costs to improve profit margins [29] - The expected payment ratio for January 2026 is around 20%, with the first quarter projected to reach approximately 30% [27] Conclusion - Moutai's strategic adjustments focus on optimizing product offerings, stabilizing prices, and enhancing market presence while addressing consumer needs and distributor performance. The company aims to maintain a balanced approach to growth and profitability in a competitive market environment.