证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业点评 2026 年 01 月 05 日 食品饮料 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 相关研究 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：扩内需提至战略高 度，五粮液主动求变》2025-12-22 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：茅台控量稳价，批 价反弹回升》2025-12-15 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：汾酒召开经销商大 会，稳健姿态应对行业调整》2025-12-08 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：茅台理性定调，不 唯指标论》2025-12-01 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：伊利推进多元化转 型升级，高分红彰显配置价值》2025-11-24 强于大市 投资要点： 周度跟踪：本周（12.29-01.02）食品饮料行业-2.26%，表现弱于上证指数（+0.13%），在 31个申万子行业中排名第30。食品饮料子板块中，涨跌幅由高到低分别为：软饮料（+0.55%）， 其他酒类（-0.24%），肉制品（-0.97%），调味发酵品（-0.98%），烘焙食品（-1.09%）， 保健品（-1.29%），零食（-1.35%），乳品（-2.13%），啤酒（-2.15%），预加工食品（-2 ...

茅台经销商大会政策解读 20251229 摘要 茅台调整产品结构，旨在打造金字塔型产品矩阵，明确各产品价格带， 避免相互挤压。千元以下为 1,935 系列，1,500-2000 元为飞天系列， 2000-3,000 元为精品系列，4,000 元以上为 15 年系列，确保各产品 定位清晰，价差合理，实现协同效应。 公司计划减少非标小包装茅台（如 100 毫升、200 毫升、公斤装），以 稳定 500 毫升普飞的市场地位，提高市占率和开瓶率。原因是小包装受 众面窄，未能与飞天形成互补，反而冲击了飞天。 茅台计划将精品茅台打造成大单品，目标价格控制在 2000 元以上，并 有望成为 500 亿以上的大单品。2025 年精品茅台总量约为 400 亿元， 减量约为 100-200 亿元，目前精品体量不到 100 亿元，通过调整，精 品可以达到 200 亿以上。 公司强调保持自营或直控终端渠道中普飞茅台价格的平等性，即 1,499 元。即使春节期间供需压力大，批价短暂跌破 1,500 元，公司仍会维持 1,499 元终端零售供应，以稳定市场秩序，提升品牌形象和消费者满意 度。 Q&A 请介绍一下茅台在 2026 年的整体 ...

Summary of the Wine Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The wine industry is currently experiencing a recovery phase, with signs of improvement in sales volume observed in June and July, despite high-end and business-related banquets still facing pressure [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Sales Volume Improvement**: There has been a noticeable improvement in sales volume since late July, particularly in casual dining scenarios such as family gatherings and graduation celebrations. However, high-end and business-related banquets remain suppressed and require more time for recovery [2]. - **Price Adjustments**: The price of the original box of Moutai has decreased from approximately 1,900 yuan to around 1,800 yuan due to increased supply ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival, indicating short-term price pressure [1][2]. - **Market Bottom Prediction**: The wine index is expected to reach its bottom in Q4 2025 or Q1 2026, with the adjustment cycle likely lasting 3-4 quarters, similar to the previous economic and policy pressure period from 2013 to 2015 [1][3]. - **Demand Recovery Timeline**: The earliest potential recovery in demand could occur around the Mid-Autumn Festival in 2026, driven by a low base effect and easing economic policies. However, inventory clearance may take longer [1][3]. - **Dividend Yield as a Safety Net**: High-end wine stocks generally have a dividend yield above 4%, providing a solid bottom for the wine sector and indicating limited downside risk [1][3]. - **Mid-term Demand Drivers**: Over the next 2-3 years, a significant recovery in wine demand is anticipated due to short-term economic recovery and marginal improvements in policy constraints. The construction area is expected to rebound, which will enhance consumption scenarios [1][4]. - **Investment Strategy**: In the short term, high-end wines are considered the best investment choice due to their strong financial resilience, minimal impact on primary consumer groups, and significant brand and channel premium. Once a recovery is confirmed, attention can shift to mid-range or regionally strong brands [1][5]. Additional Important Insights - **Inventory Levels**: Current social inventory levels remain high, and the market has not yet entered a formal clearance phase, which may delay recovery [3]. - **Long-term Growth Potential**: The wine sector is viewed as a cyclical asset that could outperform inflation if the economy shifts towards a consumption-driven growth model, suggesting that high-end wine business models may continue to thrive [4].