茅台经销商大会政策解读 20251229 摘要 茅台调整产品结构，旨在打造金字塔型产品矩阵，明确各产品价格带， 避免相互挤压。千元以下为 1,935 系列，1,500-2000 元为飞天系列， 2000-3,000 元为精品系列，4,000 元以上为 15 年系列，确保各产品 定位清晰，价差合理，实现协同效应。 公司计划减少非标小包装茅台（如 100 毫升、200 毫升、公斤装），以 稳定 500 毫升普飞的市场地位，提高市占率和开瓶率。原因是小包装受 众面窄，未能与飞天形成互补，反而冲击了飞天。 茅台计划将精品茅台打造成大单品，目标价格控制在 2000 元以上，并 有望成为 500 亿以上的大单品。2025 年精品茅台总量约为 400 亿元， 减量约为 100-200 亿元，目前精品体量不到 100 亿元，通过调整，精 品可以达到 200 亿以上。 公司强调保持自营或直控终端渠道中普飞茅台价格的平等性，即 1,499 元。即使春节期间供需压力大，批价短暂跌破 1,500 元，公司仍会维持 1,499 元终端零售供应，以稳定市场秩序，提升品牌形象和消费者满意 度。 Q&A 请介绍一下茅台在 2026 年的整体 ...

高端白酒近况跟踪 20251229 摘要 茅台调整产品结构，珍品茅台停产，生肖酒减半，小包装和公斤装产品 减量 30%，飞天茅台保持供应稳定，通过减少非标产品供应增加飞天茅 台供应，稳定市场价格。 高价位产品如生肖酒和 15 年陈酿减量，精品茅台作为补充，长期目标 销量达 500 亿元，预计精品茅台调价至 2,100 元左右，2026 年实施合 同制筛选经销商。 2026 年开门红订单已发布，仅涉及飞天系列，占全年任务的 6%，预计 整个开门红期间订单比例可达 20%左右。非标产品转向合同制，根据经 销商综合表现筛选。 茅台将引入线上、电商、特区及私域客户新经销商，代售和寄售模式主 要体现在线上销售，经销商专卖店转化为线下提货点，解决区域供需不 平衡问题。 公司理想的飞天价格在 1,500~1,700 元之间，取消硬性配比后，经销 商综合成本控制，有助于产品流速加快，经销商对明年维持该价格区间 有信心。 Q&A 茅台近期的经销商大会透露了哪些主要信息？ 大会主要强调 2026 年将更好地适配供需关系，并取消一些硬性分销产品，以 实现各渠道的协同发力。12 月 13 日，公司曾透露了一些关于明年规划的信息， 特 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the strategic planning of Moutai Wine Company for 2026, focusing on product optimization and market adaptation [1][3]. Group 1: Product Strategy - Moutai Wine will enhance product adaptability by adhering to the principles of "demand-driven product" and "sales-driven production" to align with changing consumer trends [3]. - The product lineup will focus on three tiers: the "tip" will feature the estate series, emphasizing Qingluan, Estate R5, and Estate R4, with Estate R3 as a supplementary option; the "body" will cultivate the Old Tree Vine series, strengthening the market presence of Old Tree 35 while promoting new products Old Tree 20 and Old Tree 25; the "base" will develop the "Mountain Sea Phoenix" mass-market series, introducing sparkling wine as a new category for 2026, alongside light and healthy products like tea dry white [3]. - Personalized and differentiated products will be launched according to consumer demand, with fresh wine and zodiac wine set for New Year’s release, and sparkling wine and youthful tea dry white products scheduled for the May Day holiday [3]. Group 2: Market Pricing - Recent data from "Wine Price Insider" indicates that the terminal transaction price of Flying Moutai has stabilized between 1,816 and 1,827 yuan over the past five days; the price of premium Moutai has increased by 114 yuan, rising from 2,281 yuan to 2,395 yuan, marking a 5% increase [3].

Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai has dropped below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan per bottle, marking a significant decline of over 28% in the past six months, the largest drop in recent years [2][4]. Price Trends - The price of Feitian Moutai has fluctuated significantly, with reports of daily price changes, including a drop to 1540 yuan per bottle and subsequent increases within the same day [2]. - As of December 12, 2025, the wholesale reference price for Feitian Moutai has fallen to 1485 yuan per bottle for loose bottles and 1495 yuan for boxed products, marking the first time since 2013 that prices have fallen below the official guidance [2][4]. Historical Context - The last time Feitian Moutai prices were around 1500 yuan per bottle was in the first half of 2017, after which the industry experienced a prolonged upward trend [3]. - The cumulative price drop for loose bottles has reached 33.1% compared to the beginning of the year, with boxed products seeing a 33.7% decline [4]. Market Dynamics - High social inventory levels and promotional subsidies from e-commerce platforms have intensified price competition, with instances of prices as low as 1399 yuan per bottle on platforms like Pinduoduo [6]. - The "i Moutai" platform reported a 14.05% decline in tax-excluded revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 compared to the previous year, with a significant 57.24% drop in the third quarter alone [6]. Company Actions - Guizhou Moutai announced a cash dividend of 23.957 yuan per share, totaling 300.01 billion yuan, which may have influenced market expectations and price fluctuations [5]. - Following rumors of a supply halt to distributors and a reduction in non-standard product quotas, prices saw a brief rebound before stabilizing again [5].

暴跌后急速反弹 破位下跌：12月12日，飞天茅台散瓶/原箱批发价首次跌破1499元官方指导价（最低报1485元/瓶），创 历史新低，部分电商拼团价低至1399元/瓶。 来源：热点解码局 茅台酒价在12月13日上演戏剧性反转，飞天茅台单日内连续调价四次，从跌破官方指导价的1490元/瓶 飙升至1580元/瓶，这一罕见波动源于茅台紧急出台的"短期控量+长期改革"组合拳，同时折射出高端白 酒市场的深层矛盾。 日内四连跳：13日早间跳涨20元至1510元/瓶，午间两度调升至1530元/瓶，傍晚冲至1580元/瓶，单日涨 幅超6%。二级市场上，贵州茅台股价同步三连阳，形成"股酒联动"效应。 一、价格异动关键事实 非标产品大减量：2026年将削减生肖酒50%配额、彩釉珍品停供、1升装飞天和茅台15年各减30%，聚 焦飞天茅台（1500元+）、精品茅台（2000元+）、茅台1935（600元+）三大单品。 解决渠道痛点：此前经销商需捆绑采购滞销非标产品（如生肖酒价格倒挂），综合成本高达1600-1800 元/瓶。削减配额从源头降低渠道亏损压力，稳定飞天茅台利润空间。 三、争议焦点：反弹能否持续？ 利好派观点 政策精准减供叠 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses three major events to watch for the upcoming week, including a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, the release of the U.S. non-farm payroll report, and the listing of a new domestic GPU company, Muxi Co. [2] - The focus on Mowang's recent announcement regarding the investment of 7.5 billion in cash management products has sparked significant public discourse, with mixed reactions from investors and analysts [10][11]. - Mowang's decision to use raised funds for cash management is seen as a responsible financial strategy, as it involves low-risk, principal-protected products, which can enhance cash management efficiency [12][14]. Group 2 - The article highlights a significant drop in the U.S. AI sector, particularly the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which fell over 5%, marking its largest single-day decline since October 10 [17]. - Oracle's disappointing earnings report and Broadcom's underwhelming quarterly results have contributed to the negative sentiment in the AI sector, raising concerns about their financial health and future growth [18][19]. - The article suggests that investors should maintain a balanced portfolio and be cautious of potential corrections in growth sectors, while also considering new investment opportunities in domestic AI-related concepts [21][24]. Group 3 - The article discusses Kweichow Moutai's new policy to control the supply of non-standard products, which aims to alleviate pressure on distributors and stabilize prices [26][27]. - The new policy may lead to a decline in sales and profits for non-standard Moutai products, while potentially benefiting other liquor companies by stabilizing the price of Moutai [29]. - The article emphasizes that despite the new policy, the underlying supply-demand dynamics in the market remain unchanged [29]. Group 4 - The article notes that despite favorable news for the dividend sector, the Reducing Volatility 100 Index has experienced five consecutive days of decline, indicating a disconnect between theoretical benefits and market performance [32]. - Historical data shows that after a year of decline, the Reducing Volatility 100 Index has generally seen significant gains over the following three years, suggesting potential recovery opportunities for investors [35].

Core Insights - The eighth China International Import Expo concluded successfully, with Wajiu China showcasing its achievements and marking a significant milestone in its participation over the years [1] Group 1: Company Development - Over eight years, Wajiu China has transformed from a "trader" to an "ecosystem builder," focusing on creating long-term value through collaboration with partners [2] - The company aims to evolve from "information-based" to "intelligent digital" strategies, positioning itself as an enabler within the industry [2] Group 2: Strategic Partnerships - During the expo, Wajiu China signed strategic cooperation agreements with four renowned international wineries, enhancing its global supply chain network across key European regions [3] - The partners include Zonin from Italy, Tutiac from France, Piqueras from Spain, and Schmitt Söhne from Germany, each with a rich heritage and significant market presence [3] Group 3: Industry Engagement - Senior executives from Wajiu participated in high-level discussions at the expo, focusing on the outcomes of the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement and new opportunities in the beverage trade [4] Group 4: Product Highlights - Notable brands and products showcased at the expo included the top-selling brandy from the Dusse family, the benchmark Italian Prosecco from Zonin, and innovative low-alcohol wines [5] - The event featured a variety of products appealing to diverse consumer preferences, including health-conscious options and culturally significant beverages [5] Group 5: Consumer Interaction - Wajiu's exhibition space became a hub for interactive experiences, engaging consumers through activities like badge collection and cocktail tasting, promoting a "micro-drunk social" trend [6] - The company plans to leverage the expo platform to convert more showcased products into everyday items for Chinese consumers, continuing its mission of making fine wines accessible [6]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is experiencing a significant downturn, with a collective revenue of 317.78 billion yuan for 20 listed liquor companies in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 5.90% [2][4] - Shanxi Fenjiu has surpassed Wuliangye to become the second-largest player in the industry, with a revenue of 8.96 billion yuan in Q3 2025, compared to Wuliangye's 8.17 billion yuan [2][7] - The industry is undergoing structural changes, with a general slowdown in revenue growth and profitability across most companies [4][5] Industry Performance - The overall revenue growth rate for the liquor industry has dropped to a five-year low, with only eight companies achieving double-digit profit growth, while many others reported single-digit or negative growth [4] - Moutai remains the leader with a revenue of 128.45 billion yuan in Q3, but its growth rate has slowed to 6.36% [4] - Wuliangye reported a revenue of 60.95 billion yuan with a decline of 10.26%, while Fenjiu's revenue growth of 5% is notable [4][5] Challenges Faced - The industry is facing several challenges, including rising raw material costs, increased promotional expenses, and deteriorating cash flow due to higher inventory levels among distributors [5] - The cumulative production of liquor from January to September 2025 was 2.655 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9%, indicating weak market demand [5] - Wuliangye's performance has been particularly affected by an imbalanced product structure and intensified competition in the mid-range market [8][9] Competitive Landscape - The competition is shifting from scale expansion to quality differentiation, with Fenjiu's rise posing a potential threat to Wuliangye's long-standing position [10][11] - Fenjiu's growth is attributed to the revival of clear aroma liquor, appealing to younger consumers [11][12] - Wuliangye's traditional distribution model is under pressure, leading to increased inventory and financial strain on distributors [8][9] Future Outlook - The liquor industry is expected to undergo a cleansing process, with a potential recovery starting in 2026 as macroeconomic conditions improve [13][14] - The "Matthew Effect" will continue to intensify, favoring leading companies with strong brand power and national distribution [14][15] - Companies that can blend traditional brewing wisdom with modern consumer insights are likely to emerge as winners post-adjustment [15]

Core Viewpoint - The consumption enthusiasm for high-end liquor, particularly Feitian Moutai, is increasing as the "Double Eleven" shopping festival and year-end consumption peak approach, demonstrating strong resilience during the industry's adjustment cycle [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The price of 500ml 53-degree Feitian Moutai in Beijing remains stable, ranging from 1980 to 2400 RMB, with specific stores pricing at 2019 RMB and 2158 RMB respectively, indicating no significant fluctuations [3] - Since October, the terminal price of Feitian Moutai in Beijing has consistently stayed above 1980 RMB, with original box prices nearing 2050 RMB, reflecting a healthy supply-demand relationship and market liquidity [3] Group 2: Company Financials - For the first nine months of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 1309.04 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.32%, with Moutai liquor revenue at 1105.14 billion RMB, up 9.28%, highlighting its role as a key growth driver [3] - The company is focusing on stabilizing its core business, optimizing channel relationships, and enhancing operational efficiency, showcasing strong brand resilience and quality of development [3] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively promoting non-standard products and cultural series, such as kilogram Feitian, zodiac liquor, and regional cultural liquor, which are contributing significantly to revenue growth [4] - The company is enhancing its market value management and shareholder return mechanisms, committing to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 75% over three years and implementing a 6 billion RMB share buyback, reflecting confidence in its intrinsic value [4] Group 4: Market Sentiment - The company has received attention from multiple securities firms, with eight reports in the past month, indicating sustained institutional interest in its investment value [4] - The company's strategic resilience and ability to navigate industry fluctuations are underscored by its systematic layout of "three transformations" and "four focuses," establishing a solid foundation for sustainable growth [5]

Core Viewpoint - The price of 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai has dropped below 1700 yuan for the first time, indicating significant pressure on Guizhou Moutai amid a broader industry downturn [1][3][4]. Price Trends - As of October 28, 2025, the wholesale reference price for Feitian Moutai has fallen to 1690 yuan, down 25 yuan from the previous day, marking a cumulative decline of over 20% from its initial price of 2220 yuan [1][2]. - The retail price of Feitian Moutai has shown a consistent downward trend since June 2025, with significant drops occurring at various points throughout the year [4][6]. Company Performance - Guizhou Moutai reported a total revenue of 91.094 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.16%, while net profit increased by 8.89% to 45.403 billion yuan, both representing the lowest growth rates in a decade [2][6]. - The company is facing challenges in maintaining growth amid a declining price environment and increasing inventory levels [7][8]. Industry Context - The overall white liquor industry is experiencing high inventory levels and weak demand, with a reported 20% year-on-year decline in sales during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays [6][8]. - The industry has seen a reduction in the number of large-scale white liquor enterprises, with over 100 companies exiting the market, leading to increased concentration [8]. Strategic Changes - Guizhou Moutai has undergone multiple leadership changes, with the recent appointment of Chen Hua as chairman, marking the fourth change in five years [2][16]. - The company has attempted various strategies to stabilize prices, including limiting supply to e-commerce and wholesale markets, but these efforts have been undermined by external pressures and internal strategic shifts [5][11]. Market Dynamics - The price decline of Feitian Moutai reflects a broader trend of price inversion affecting 60% of white liquor companies, with nearly 60% reporting reduced operating profits [8][9]. - The high inventory levels and price inversions are leading to a structural adjustment in the industry, with a focus on inventory reduction and price stabilization [7][10].