证券研究报告·公司深度研究·白酒Ⅱ 贵州茅台（600519） 营销改革复盘专题：笃行不怠，臻于至善 2026 年 03 月 03 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 150,560 | 174,144 | 183,022 | 185,125 | 194,493 | | 同比（%） | 18.04 | 15.66 | 5.10 | 1.15 | 5.06 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 74,734 | 86,228 | 90,107 | 90,139 | 93,980 | | 同比（%） | 19.16 | 15.38 | 4.50 | 0.04 | 4.26 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 59.68 | 68.86 | 71.96 | 71.98 | 75.05 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 24.13 | 20.91 | 20.01 | 20.01 | 19.19 | [T ...

曾经，常温包装面包是 "便捷、饱腹、高性价比" 的代名词。行业龙头桃李靠着 "中央工厂 + 批发" 的模式，把短保面包铺遍了全国的街头巷尾；达利园、盼盼的长保面包，填满了过去十几年无数人 的早餐桌和旅途行囊。 但是当社区烘焙店的现烤吐司卖到 9.9 元 / 袋，当山姆、盒马的自有品牌面包占据了商超最核心位 置的堆头，当消费者拿起包装面包第一眼看的不是价格，而是配料表上的添加剂数量 —— 这个陪伴 了中国人数十年的品类，正在悄悄经历一场前所未有的销量保卫战。 近些年大家都在追求"现烤"，但常温包装面包（含短保、长保）依然是中国烘焙行业的核心基本 盘，即便在越来越多的烘焙店现烤面包的持续冲击下，依然保持着稳健的市场体量。 根 据 欧 睿 国 际 数 据 ， 2025 年 中 国 面 包 整 体 市 场 规 模 已 突 破 2000 亿 元 ， 预 计 2030 年 将 以 年 均 6.8% 的复合增长率突破 2800 亿元；其中预包装常温面包占据 45% 的市场份额，2025 年市场规模 超 900 亿元，始终是烘焙行业工业化的核心载体。 （ * 该数据仅统计面包品类，不含蛋糕、糕点、月饼等其他烘焙品类） 从品类 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in fruit prices in Shanghai's markets reflects a broader trend in the fruit industry, driven by both supply chain upgrades and changes in consumer demand, with a notable shift towards domestic fruit production as a future trend [1][4][9]. Price Trends - Prices for popular fruits such as cherries and strawberries have dropped significantly, with cherries seeing a price reduction of over 20% and strawberries experiencing a price drop of around 50% within a month [4][5]. - Specific price data shows that imported cherries fell from 57 yuan per kilogram in January 2025 to 45 yuan in January 2026, while strawberries dropped from 43 yuan to 35.5 yuan per kilogram in the same period [4][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The overall fruit prices have decreased by 20% to 30% due to an oversupply in the market, particularly for imported fruits like cherries, which have seen increased imports leading to lower prices [9][10]. - The production of domestic fruits such as sugar oranges and strawberries has increased, with sugar orange production reaching 6.5 million tons in 2025, a 25% increase year-on-year [9][10]. Market Competition - The simultaneous harvest of various fruits has intensified competition, leading to price wars, especially among lower-quality fruits [11][12]. - The rise of e-commerce and improved supply chain logistics has reduced costs and allowed for more competitive pricing at the retail level [11][12]. Impact on Producers - The decline in prices has adversely affected upstream fruit growers, with some experiencing a drop in purchase prices by 40% to 50%, marking the lowest in 20 years for certain varieties [13][14]. - The overall price for blueberries has decreased by about 20% compared to the previous year, with market prices continuing to decline [13][14]. Future Trends - The fruit market is expected to see a short-term stabilization due to seasonal demand, but long-term trends indicate a continued decline in prices, with a focus on quality differentiation [16][17]. - The industry is moving towards a model where high-quality domestic fruits will gain prominence, and there will be a shift towards more specialized and diversified consumption scenarios [17][18].

截至港股收盘，东方甄选股价涨14.21%至25.24港元，总市值266亿港元。 俞敏洪表示："2026财年上半年，东方甄选在复杂多变的环境下展现出强劲的经营韧性，恢复了总营收 与净溢利的同比双增长，为公司长期可持续发展奠定了坚实基础。" 其中，东方甄选自营产品的总商品交易额（GMV）占比达到约52.8%，首次超过一半。 记者｜董静怡 编辑｜张伟贤 一份盈利的财报，对经历了高管风波、主播更迭与商业模式内外拷问的东方甄选而言，其意义或许超越 了财务数字本身。 1月28日，东方甄选（1797.HK）公布了2026财年中期业绩。2025年6月1日至11月30日，公司总营收23 亿元，同比增长5.7%。若剔除2025财年上半年分拆前产生的部分收入，东方甄选报告期内的总营收同 比增加17%。 报告期内，东方甄选净溢利达2.39亿元，同比增长347.7%。相比去年同期的净亏损9650万元，扭亏为 盈。 当互联网红利消退，内容直播的边际效益递减时，商业的本质最终会回归到产品。东方甄选的这份中期 成绩单，验证了产品策略的阶段性可行。 | | 截至2025年 | 截至2024年 | | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial report of Dongfang Zhenxuan signifies more than just financial numbers, reflecting the company's resilience and strategic shift towards self-operated products amidst challenges [1]. Financial Performance - For the six months ending November 30, 2025, Dongfang Zhenxuan reported total revenue of 2.311629 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. Excluding revenue from the previously spun-off business, the actual growth rate was 17% [2][4]. - The net profit reached 239.041 million RMB, a significant turnaround from a net loss of 96.503 million RMB in the same period last year, marking a 347.7% increase [2][5]. - Gross profit was 841.639 million RMB, up 14.5% year-on-year, with the gross margin improving from 33.6% to 36.4% [5]. Strategic Shift - The company has shifted its focus to self-operated products, which now account for approximately 52.8% of total GMV, marking a significant milestone [3][5]. - This strategic pivot was accelerated by the departure of a key influencer and the subsequent need to reduce reliance on single IP models, as stated by the company's leadership [4][5]. Cost Management - Operating costs have decreased, with a 26% reduction in employee numbers and a 35% drop in total compensation. Administrative expenses fell by 78.6% due to reduced profit distributions from the previous fiscal year [5]. Channel Diversification - Despite the success in self-operated products, a significant portion of GMV still comes from Douyin, indicating a continued reliance on external platforms for customer acquisition [7]. - The company is exploring multiple channels, including the reactivation of WeChat video accounts and the establishment of new accounts on Douyin to capture diverse user interests [7][8]. Offline Expansion - Dongfang Zhenxuan has initiated offline strategies, including the deployment of over 40 vending machines and plans to open its first offline experience store in Beijing by March-April [8]. - Collaborations with New Oriental Group are being deepened to leverage B2B sales opportunities and enhance brand exposure [8]. Long-term Investment - The ongoing investments in various channels, including vertical accounts, self-operated apps, and offline stores, are seen as necessary for long-term growth, although they are still in early stages and require time and resources to yield results [9].

Core Viewpoint - The financial report of Dongfang Zhenxuan signifies more than just financial numbers, especially after experiencing executive turmoil and changes in its business model [2] Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2026, Dongfang Zhenxuan reported total revenue of 2.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. Excluding revenue from the previous year's split business, the actual growth rate is 17% [4][5] - The net profit reached 239 million yuan, a significant turnaround from a net loss of 96.5 million yuan in the same period last year, marking a year-on-year increase of 347.7% [2][4] - Gross profit for the period was 841.6 million yuan, up 14.5% year-on-year, with the gross margin improving from 33.6% to 36.4% [4][5] Business Strategy - The self-operated product's total gross merchandise volume (GMV) accounted for approximately 52.8%, surpassing half for the first time, indicating a successful shift in strategy [3][5] - The company has launched a total of 801 self-operated products across various categories, including fresh food, snacks, nutrition and health products, pet food, and clothing [5] - The self-operated model allows for higher pricing power and profit margins compared to third-party platforms, which is essential for improving profitability [5] Cost Management - The company reduced its workforce by 26%, leading to a 35% decrease in total salary expenses. Administrative expenses dropped by 78.6% to 80 million yuan, primarily due to profit distributions related to the previous fiscal year [5][6] Channel Diversification - Despite the success in self-operated products, a significant portion of GMV still relies on Douyin, indicating a need for diversified customer acquisition channels [6] - The app's GMV contribution is only 18.5%, with a decline in paid membership numbers, highlighting the need for growth in private channels [6] - Dongfang Zhenxuan has restarted live streaming on WeChat and rebranded its Douyin account, aiming to create a matrix of accounts to better engage different consumer segments [6][7] Offline Expansion - The company has deployed over 40 vending machines in various locations, with plans for further expansion, including the opening of its first offline experience store in Beijing [7] - Collaboration with New Oriental Group is deepening, with plans to offer Dongfang Zhenxuan products as gifts during recruitment and employee welfare programs [7]

Core Viewpoint - The financial report released by Dongfang Zhenxuan signifies more than just financial numbers, especially after the company faced executive turmoil, changes in hosts, and scrutiny of its business model. The report indicates a recovery and resilience in operations, laying a solid foundation for sustainable long-term development [1]. Financial Performance - For the six months ending November 30, 2025, Dongfang Zhenxuan reported total revenue of 2.31 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. Excluding revenue from the previous year's split business, the actual growth rate was 17% [2][4]. - The net profit for the reporting period reached 239 million RMB, a significant turnaround from a net loss of 96.5 million RMB in the same period last year, marking a year-on-year increase of 347.7% [2][4]. - Gross profit for the period was 841.6 million RMB, up 14.5% year-on-year, with the gross margin improving from 33.6% to 36.4% [4]. Business Strategy and Product Development - The total gross merchandise volume (GMV) from self-operated products accounted for approximately 52.8% of total sales, marking a significant milestone as it surpassed half of the total sales for the first time [1][4]. - The company has launched a total of 801 self-operated products, expanding from fresh food and snacks to include nutrition and health products, pet food, and clothing [4]. - The self-operated model allows for better pricing power and profit margins compared to third-party platforms, contributing to the improvement in profitability [4]. Cost Management - The company reduced its workforce by 26%, leading to a 35% decrease in total salary expenses. Administrative expenses also dropped by 78.6% to 80 million RMB, primarily due to reduced profit distribution related to the previous year's split business [4]. Channel Diversification - Despite the success in self-operated products, a significant portion of GMV still relies on Douyin (TikTok), indicating a need for continued dependence on external traffic sources [5]. - The company has initiated a multi-channel strategy, including the relaunch of WeChat video accounts and the establishment of new accounts on Douyin to target different consumer segments [5]. - Dongfang Zhenxuan is also exploring offline channels, with plans to open its first offline experience store in Beijing and has already deployed over 40 vending machines in various locations [5][6]. Collaboration with New Oriental Group - The company is deepening its collaboration with New Oriental Group, planning to offer self-operated products as gifts during student recruitment and distribute gift cards as employee benefits, which could enhance B2B sales and brand exposure [6].

Core Insights - Zhang Xiaoqin Co., Ltd. has successfully won a procurement project with China Telecom, securing an order worth over one million [1] - This achievement marks significant progress in the company's new channel expansion, injecting new momentum into business growth [1] Group 1: Product and Market Strategy - The products won in the bid primarily focus on fresh-keeping and storage categories, including multifunctional storage racks, vest-style fresh-keeping bags, and vacuum bags [2] - These products will be available to consumers through the China Telecom "Xinyiyouxuan" platform, where users can redeem them using points [2][3] - The addition of Zhang Xiaoqin products enriches the product matrix of the Xinyiyouxuan platform, which aims to provide quality lifestyle products to telecom users [3] Group 2: Channel Diversification and Industry Trends - The collaboration with China Telecom represents a crucial step in Zhang Xiaoqin's ongoing strategy to diversify its sales channels [4] - The company is transitioning from traditional retail to online and now to telecom operator point redemption platforms, creating a comprehensive sales network [4] - The focus on new kitchen products rather than traditional items like knives and scissors indicates a strategic shift to meet market demand and build a more complete kitchen ecosystem [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - By embracing innovation and exploring new cooperation models, Zhang Xiaoqin is positioned to maintain competitiveness in a changing market environment [4] - Continued investment in innovative channel strategies is expected to lead to more stable growth and enhanced value for consumers and investors alike [4]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the 53% vol 500ml Flying Moutai on the iMoutai platform has led to a significant surge in demand, indicating a key step in Moutai's channel reform and terminal control strategy [1][6][9] Group 1: Sales Performance - The Flying Moutai was sold out within minutes on the iMoutai platform, with the page frequently displaying "sold out" during the purchasing attempts [1][5] - The iMoutai platform has seen over 100,000 users complete purchases during the three-day New Year holiday [1][6] - The classic version of Moutai (priced at 1899 yuan per bottle) and the gift box version (3789 yuan for two bottles) also sold out quickly on the same day [1] Group 2: Channel Strategy - The introduction of the Flying Moutai to the direct sales platform marks a significant change in Moutai's channel strategy, allowing for better price control and direct consumer engagement [6][9] - Moutai's recent adjustments to purchasing rules, reducing the daily purchase limit from 12 bottles to 6, aim to meet demand ahead of the Spring Festival [1][6] - The company is shifting from a reliance on distributors to a multi-channel approach, integrating direct sales, distribution, and retail [9] Group 3: Market Impact - The wholesale price of Flying Moutai has dropped below the official guide price of 1499 yuan, reflecting the impact of the new direct sales strategy on traditional distribution channels [8][9] - Some distributors anticipate a decline in their sales prices due to the increased availability of Moutai through direct channels [8] - Moutai's financial performance shows a revenue of 130.9 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 6.3%, indicating a stable market despite challenges [7]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by Kweichow Moutai to cancel the distribution model signifies a shift towards a more direct sales approach, reflecting the challenges faced by traditional distribution channels in the current market environment [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for Cancellation of Distribution Model - The traditional distribution model has faced challenges due to excess inventory, pressure on distributors, and instability in pricing, leading to a need for channel flattening [2][4]. - The multi-tiered distribution system, which was effective during industry growth, has revealed its drawbacks in a cooling demand environment, resulting in squeezed profit margins and insufficient channel profits to sustain multiple distribution levels [2][4]. - The overall inventory pressure in the industry has led to some distributors reducing purchases or exiting the channel, while others are increasing their numbers to replace traditional distributors [4][6]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Changes - The trend towards channel flattening and diversification is driven by changes in consumer demand, industry structure, and market scenarios, prompting a reform in distribution channels [7][9]. - The increasing share of direct sales in Moutai's revenue, approaching 50%, indicates a strategic move to enhance control over pricing and market order [7][8]. - The rapid development of e-commerce, particularly live-streaming sales, is reshaping the distribution landscape, making it more decentralized and diverse [11][12]. Group 3: Future of Distribution and Role of Distributors - The evolution of distribution will lead to a more service-oriented role for traditional distributors, as they adapt to a direct-to-consumer model [12][14]. - The traditional advantages of distributors, such as local networks and information asymmetry, are diminishing due to the rise of direct sales and e-commerce platforms [12][14]. - Future distribution will focus on shorter chains, transparency, and enhanced service and experience, requiring distributors to shift from logistics providers to value service providers [14].