晨会纪要（2025/07/16） 编辑人 收益率涨跌互现，信用利差多数收窄——信用债周报 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.07.16） 宏观及策略研究 出口挑战延后——2025 年 6 月进出口数据点评 固定收益研究 行业研究 海外关税扰动性加大，国内"反内卷"提振情绪——金属行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 晨 会 纪 要 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、数据 海关总署发布最新贸易数据显示，2025 年 6 月美元计价中国出口同比增长 5.8%，前值增长 4.8%，市场预期 增长 5.0%；进口同比增长 1.1%，前值下降 3.4%，市场预期增长 0.3%。贸易顺差 1147.7 亿美元，前值 1032.2 亿美元。 2、出口预期内强韧 6 月出口金额同比增速回升，一 ...

证券研究报告：有色金属|行业周报 发布时间：2025-07-14 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 5199.61 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 5230.85 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3700.9 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-07 2024-09 2024-12 2025-02 2025-04 2025-07 -17% -13% -9% -5% -1% 3% 7% 11% 15% 19% 23% 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:魏欣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070001 Email:weixin@cnpsec.com 研究助理:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340124050015 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《滞胀交易驱动金属价格上行》 - 2025.07.06 市场有风险，投资需谨慎 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条 ...

Group 1 - The rare earth permanent magnet sector has driven a collective surge in the small metals industry, with multiple rare earth-related ETFs rising over 6% and maintaining a leading position for two consecutive days [1] - The rare metals ETF (562800) saw a half-day increase of 5.05%, with a trading volume of 591.26 million yuan, and its total scale is 1.55 billion shares [3] - The rare metals industry ETFs have experienced a decrease in shares this year, with the rare metals ETF (562800) losing 27.9 million shares, reflecting a year-to-date change rate of -15.23% [2] Group 2 - Recent price increases in tungsten concentrate and ammonium paratungstate indicate a tightening supply, with tungsten concentrate rising by 0.58% to 172,000 yuan/ton and ammonium paratungstate increasing by 0.40% to 253,000 yuan/ton [3] - The SHFE tin price rose by 2.57% to 267,300 yuan/ton, while LME tin increased by 4.24% to 33,800 USD/ton, indicating a tight supply situation due to low operating rates in Yunnan's refining enterprises [3] - The CSI Rare Metals Theme Index, launched on May 12, 2015, reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the rare metals industry, providing diverse investment targets [3] Group 3 - The major weighted stocks in the CSI Rare Metals Theme Index include Northern Rare Earth (9.06%), Salt Lake Industry (8.58%), and others, indicating the key players in the rare metals sector [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant surge in the prices of copper and other non-ferrous metals, driven by tight supply and increased demand, with copper prices recently surpassing $10,000 per ton, marking a three-month high [1][2] - The non-ferrous metal index has seen a cumulative increase of 8.74% over the past month, ranking second among 31 Shenwan industry indices, indicating strong market interest in this sector [1] - Factors contributing to the copper price surge include a sharp decline in LME copper inventory to 90,000 tons, the lowest in 22 months, and concerns over potential U.S. tariffs on copper imports, which have led traders to stockpile copper [1] Group 2 - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has also supported prices for copper and aluminum, while cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo extending its export ban [2] - Multiple institutions believe the non-ferrous metal industry may be at a turning point, with changes in macroeconomic conditions, such as a shift towards "stabilizing growth" in domestic policies and the onset of a new Fed rate cut cycle, likely to improve capital expenditure and financing costs [4] - The non-ferrous metal sector is currently experiencing a phase of supply-demand mismatch, profit recovery, and expectations of liquidity easing, with various factors supporting price stability [4] Group 3 - Specific segments of the non-ferrous metal market, such as gold, copper, and aluminum, are recommended for attention due to their potential for growth and recovery in demand driven by economic improvements [4][5] - The strategic value of rare metals like rare earths, tungsten, antimony, and bismuth is increasingly recognized, alongside the promising applications of emerging materials like graphene and carbon fiber in high-end industries [5]

晨会纪要（2025/07/03） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.07.03） 固定收益研究 金融工程研究 主要指数全部上涨，两融余额小幅上升——融资融券周报 行业研究 央行释放积极信号，中东局势出现缓和——金属行业周报 杭州机器人展成功举办，关注人形机器人量产节奏——机械设备行业 7 月投 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 收益率整体下行，高等级拉久期仍有空间——信用债 7 月投资策略展望 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 要 资策略展望 晨会纪要（2025/07/03） 固定收益研究 收益率整体下行，高等级拉久期仍有空间——信用债 7 月投资策略展望 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 1、核心观点 6 月各期限发行指导利率多数下行，整体变化幅度为-16 BP 至 4 BP。6 月信用债发行规模环比增长，各品种 发行金额均环比增加；信用债净 ...

业 研 究 行 行业周报 央行释放积极信号，中东局势出现缓和 | | | | ——金属行业周报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师： 张珂 | | SAC NO： S1150523120001 2025 年 07 月 02 | 日 | | 钢铁 | | | | | 有色金属 | | 投资要点： | | | 证券分析师 | |  行业情况及产品价格走势初判 | | | 张珂 | | 钢铁：考虑到天气因素，未来需求有继续走弱的预期，但预计下滑空间有限； | | | 022-23839062 | | 原料端价格下降成本支撑不足，预计短期钢价将维持弱势。 | | | zhangke@bhzq.com | | | | | 研究助理 | | 铜：目前矿端供应偏紧和低库存对价格下方有支撑，淡季内基本面支撑不足， | | | | | 贸易不确定性仍存，需关注海外贸易政策和美联储预期的影响。 | | | 重点品种推荐 | | | | | 洛阳钼业 增持 | | 铝：海外宏观不确定性仍存，国内低库存对铝价有支撑，部分下游需求在淡季 | | | 中金黄金 增持 | | | | | 山东黄金 增持 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the non-ferrous metal industry in China is experiencing growth, with a 7.0% year-on-year increase in industrial added value from January to May, and a significant 19.9% increase in fixed asset investment [1] - Strategic metals are gaining market attention due to their resource scarcity and increasing demand in new energy sectors, with optimistic outlooks from separation enterprises and traders regarding rare earth oxide prices [1] - Industrial metal prices are currently fluctuating, with aluminum prices rising by 2.34% this week and 4.62% for the month, while copper prices face upward pressure due to macroeconomic policies and supply constraints [1] Group 2 - The LME and SHFE aluminum inventories have decreased by 2.38% and 5.02% respectively, indicating a tightening supply chain in the aluminum industry [1] - Copper supply remains tight due to ongoing production halts in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may lead to expectations of reduced output due to declining smelting processing fees [1] - Zinc prices have shown a slight recovery with a weekly increase of 0.86%, although inventory pressures persist, highlighting the overall vulnerability in the aluminum supply chain and strong long-term price support for copper [1]

证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 6 月 10 日 [Table_Title] 安托法加斯塔 2025Q1 铜产量环比减少 22.8%至 15.47 万吨，铜单位净现金成本环比增长 25.2%至 1.54 美元/磅 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ► 生产经营情况 1）铜 2025Q1 铜总产量为 15.47 万吨，同比增长 19.6%，环比减少 22.8%。主要得益于集团的两个选矿厂-- Los Pelambres 选矿厂 和 Centinela 选矿厂产量的增加。 2025Q1 铜销量为 17.02 万吨，同比增长 47.1%，环比减少 11.3%。 2025Q1 铜实现价格为 4.69 美元/磅，同比增长 18.1%，环比增 长 25.1%。 2025Q1 扣除副产品收益抵免前的铜单位现金成本为 2.37 美元/ 磅，同比减少 11.2%，环比增长 17.9%。主要原因是集团的选 矿厂（Los Pelambres 选矿厂和 Centinela 选矿厂）产量增加。 2025Q1 铜单位净现金成本为 1.54 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [7] Core Insights - In Q1 2025, copper production totaled 154.7 thousand tons, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 22.8%. This was primarily due to increased output from the Los Pelambres and Centinela mines [2][13] - Copper sales reached 170.2 thousand tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 47.1% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 11.3% [2][13] - The realized copper price was $4.69 per pound, up 18.1% year-on-year and 25.1% quarter-on-quarter [2][14] - The net cash cost for copper was $1.54 per pound, a decrease of 20.2% year-on-year but an increase of 25.2% quarter-on-quarter [3][13] - Gold production was 42.9 thousand ounces (1.33 tons), marking a year-on-year increase of 28.8% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 37.1% [4][13] - The realized gold price was $3,098 per ounce, up 42.4% year-on-year and 16.1% quarter-on-quarter [4][14] - Molybdenum production was 3,100 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 14.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.7% [5][13] - The realized molybdenum price was $19.3 per pound, down 8.5% year-on-year and 10.2% quarter-on-quarter [5][14] Production and Cost Summary - The total copper production for Q1 2025 was 154.7 thousand tons, with a cash cost before by-product credits of $2.37 per pound [13] - The total gold production for Q1 2025 was 42.9 thousand ounces, with a realized price of $3,098 per ounce [4][14] - The total molybdenum production for Q1 2025 was 3,100 tons, with a realized price of $19.3 per pound [5][14] Project Development Updates - The Centinela Phase II project is progressing as expected, focusing on assembling mining equipment and completing concrete work for the foundations of the mills [8] - The Los Pelambres expansion project is also on track, with ongoing work on the concentrate pipeline and seawater desalination plant [9] - The Cachorro exploration project submitted an environmental impact statement in January 2025 for additional exploration work [10] 2025 Outlook - The annual copper production target remains unchanged, expected to be between 660,000 and 700,000 tons [11] - The cash cost guidance remains unchanged, with costs before and after by-product credits expected to be between $2.25-$2.45 and $1.45-$1.65 per pound, respectively [11] - Capital expenditure guidance remains at $3.9 billion [12]

西部证券指出，当前全球宏观环境反复，工业金属以铜铝为代表的金属价格整体继续维持震荡。但24年 下半年以来一揽子政策的推出使国内宏观情绪逐步回暖，在供给强约束下，叠加5月制造业PMI环比上 升0.5个百分点至49.5%、市场预期改善，终端景气度回升有望带动上游工业金属需求改善。铝产业链方 面，近期几内亚铝土矿冲击事件虽属短期扰动，但凸显了铝供应链的脆弱性，一体化布局成为行业发展 方向。 有色60ETF（159881）跟踪的是中证有色指数（930708），该指数由中证指数有限公司编制，从沪深市 场中选取有色金属行业内的代表性上市公司证券作为指数样本，覆盖铜、铝、铅锌、稀有金属等多个子 行业。中证有色指数全面反映A股市场有色金属行业的整体表现，其成分股具有显著的周期性和商品价 格敏感性特征。 铜价虽受宏观政策反复压制，但铜精矿供给趋紧且冶炼加工费持续下行，中长期价格支撑较强。此外， 美国关税政策若暂停可能引发市场预期大幅转变，需关注后续进展。战略金属中，钨矿价格已突破历史 新高，在各国追求供应链自主的背景下，战略金属估值有望重构。 注：指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变 ...