Macro and Strategy Research - The economic data for July 2025 shows that the industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 6.0% and previous value of 6.8% [3] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year, below the expected 4.6% and previous value of 4.8% [4] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth is at 1.6%, also below expectations [4] Company Research: Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. (603799) - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 37.197 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.78%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.711 billion yuan, up 62.26% [15] - Nickel product shipments increased significantly, with nickel product output reaching 139,400 tons, a year-on-year growth of 83.91% [16] - The company has made significant progress in cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with a sales net profit margin of 9.33%, an increase of 1.44 percentage points year-on-year [16] Industry Research: Metal Industry - Frequent bidding by major magnetic material manufacturers is expected to boost the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide [10] - The steel industry is facing supply constraints due to tightened production policies, but demand may be impacted by construction site shutdowns [11] - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate due to insufficient fundamental support, with potential demand driven by seasonal inventory accumulation [11] - The rare earth market is seeing improved inquiry conditions, with light rare earth prices expected to be supported in the short term [12]

Macroeconomic and Strategic Research - In June 2025, China's exports in USD terms increased by 5.8% year-on-year, up from 4.8% in May, while imports rose by 1.1%, recovering from a 3.4% decline in the previous month [2] - The trade surplus reached USD 114.77 billion, compared to USD 103.22 billion in May [2] - The rebound in export growth is attributed to the delayed effects of the US-China tariff suspension and ongoing demand from ASEAN countries, although future costs may rise due to new US-Vietnam tariff agreements [2] - The global manufacturing PMI returned above the neutral line, providing support for Chinese exports, with significant improvements noted in South Korea's export growth [2] - Import growth was driven by strong demand for high-end manufacturing products, particularly semiconductors, contributing approximately 1.8 percentage points to the overall import growth [3] - Export pressures are expected to emerge by the end of Q3 2025, influenced by US tariff policies and potential demand shifts [4] Fixed Income Research - The issuance guidance rates for credit bonds mostly declined, with an overall change of -9 basis points to 0 basis points [4] - The net financing amount for credit bonds increased, with corporate bonds seeing zero issuance while other types experienced growth [5] - The secondary market saw a decrease in transaction volume, with corporate bonds and company bonds increasing while medium-term notes and short-term financing bonds decreased [5] - Credit spreads for short-term and corporate bonds narrowed, indicating a generally low historical spread level, particularly for AAA-rated five-year bonds [5] - The report suggests a cautious approach to investing in credit bonds, emphasizing the importance of monitoring interest rate trends and individual bond coupon values [5] Industry Research - The metal industry faces increased uncertainty due to tariffs, with notable developments including Trump's proposed 30% tariffs on Mexico and the EU, and a 17% year-on-year increase in copper production from Codelco [7] - The steel sector shows manageable inventory levels and limited supply-demand conflicts, with raw material prices rebounding, supporting price stability [8] - Copper prices are under pressure due to tight supply and low inventory, compounded by US tariff policies creating trade uncertainties [8] - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate due to macroeconomic uncertainties and subdued downstream demand during the off-season [8] - Gold prices are supported by tariff and trade uncertainties, with future movements dependent on economic data and geopolitical developments [8] - The lithium market is experiencing downward pressure from oversupply, despite some support from "anti-involution" sentiments [8] - The report maintains a "neutral" rating for the steel industry and a "positive" rating for non-ferrous metals, recommending increased holdings in specific companies [9]