赎回新规落地，3-5 年修复窗口打开 [Table_Authors] 张紫睿(分析师) 信用债市场周度回顾 260104 本报告导读： 年末信用债发行缩量，机构交易热度不高；中短端仍然是主要活跃期限，可关注 3 年品种骑乘机会；赎回新规落地后，3-5 年普信债/二永债或迎来阶段性修复行情。 投资要点： 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.04 | | 021-23185652 | | --- | --- | | | zhangzirui@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040068 | | | 王宇辰(分析师) | | | 010-83939801 | | | wangyuchen4@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523020004 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 曲径分岔：政策分化中把握中久期良机 2026.01.03 回望 25 年，高弹性强动量占优 2026.01.02 利率互换 IRS 能预测资金松紧甚至降息吗？ 2025.12.31 关注信用债 3Y-1Y 的骑乘机会 2025.12.29 银行二永债周度数据库更新（2025. ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance and trends in the credit bond market, focusing on both primary and secondary markets, as well as financial analysis by industry [4][5][6]. Group 2 - In the primary market, as of December 26, 2025, there have been 15,700 credit bonds issued since the beginning of 2025, totaling 13.91 trillion yuan, with 7,440 industrial bonds amounting to 8.60 trillion yuan [4]. - The public utility sector leads in issuance with 1.95 trillion yuan from 1,060 bonds, followed by non-bank financials at 1.38 trillion yuan from 1,407 bonds, and transportation at 1.00 trillion yuan from 805 bonds [4]. - The secondary market has seen credit bond yields experience an M-shaped trend, with four distinct phases: rapid increase in yields until mid-March, a decline until early July, another increase until late September, and a fluctuating decline from October onwards [4]. Group 3 - In terms of financial performance, total revenue for industrial bond issuers reached 53.88 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, down 3.50% year-on-year, while net profit totaled 2.43 trillion yuan, also down 3.32% [5]. - The non-bank financial sector boasts a net profit margin exceeding 30%, significantly higher than other sectors, with environmental protection and public utilities also showing margins above 10% [5]. - By the end of Q3 2025, industries such as construction and real estate faced high debt pressure, with asset-liability ratios above 70%, while media and defense sectors maintained lower ratios below 50% [6]. Group 4 - The total interest-bearing debt across industrial bonds reached 86.35 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.58% year-on-year, with non-bank financials, public utilities, and social services having over 70% of their total liabilities as interest-bearing debt [6]. - Industries with strong short-term debt repayment capabilities include textiles, defense, media, and light manufacturing, with cash covering over 100% of short-term debts, while non-bank financials and steel sectors showed weaker capabilities with coverage below 50% [6]. - Operating cash flow for industrial bond issuers saw a net inflow increase of 18.40% year-on-year, with 12 industries, including comprehensive and real estate, reporting positive growth in net inflows [6].

固收 商业不动产 REITs 新规与展望 2025 年 12 月 22 日│中国内地 信用周报 信用热点：商业不动产 REITs 新规与展望 证券研究报告 市场回顾：信用债收益率多数下行，信用利差被动上行 上周信用债收益率多数小幅下行，但下行幅度不及国开债，利差多数被动上 行。2025 年 12 月 12 日至 12 月 19 日，税期资金面平稳，债基赎回短暂扰 动市场，LPR 降息预期再起，利率债先上后下，普信债收益率多数小幅下 行 2BP 左右，二永债除 1Y 外多数亦小幅下行 2BP 左右，但下行幅度不及 国开债，利差被动上行，1-5Y 品种多数利差上行 2-3BP。上周理财净买入 376 亿元，基金净买入 82 亿元，基金买入力度环比前一周有所下滑。信用 债 ETF 规模 5282 亿元，环比前一周上升 3.73%。行业利差方面，上周各 行业 AAA 主体评级公募债利差中位数多数上行 3BP 左右，各省公募城投债 利差中位数普遍上升 2-4BP，云南、贵州上行超 6BP。 一级发行：信用债净融资小幅下滑，发行利率涨跌互现 2025 年 12 月 15 日至 2025 年 12 月 19 日，公司类信用 ...

申万宏源固收研究 【申万固收|信用周报】收益率整体上行，普信表现优于二永——信用债市场周度跟踪（20251201- 20251207） 原创 阅读全文 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the overall supply of credit bonds is expected to increase, with a total net financing of 3.13 trillion yuan, up 330.5 billion yuan from 2025. Industrial bonds will be the main contributor, with a net financing of 2.5 trillion yuan [1][9]. - The regulatory tightening on urban investment platforms will continue in 2026, and the net financing of urban investment bonds is expected to shrink further to -416.3 billion yuan. The net financing of non - bank institutional bonds is expected to increase to 44.29 billion yuan. The net financing of commercial bank financial bonds is expected to be close to 2025, at 24.43 billion yuan, and the net financing of bank secondary and perpetual bonds may drop to 36.44 billion yuan [1][10][19]. - In the week of 2025/12/1 - 12/5, the yields of credit bonds increased across the board. Non - financial credit bonds performed better than financial bonds, and among financial bonds, 10 - year brokerage sub - bonds performed best. Looking ahead, credit bonds may show a volatile trend, and a coupon strategy is recommended [2][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2026 Credit Bond Supply Estimation - Overall, in 2026, driven by the growth of industrial bond net financing, the supply of credit bonds is expected to increase. Industrial bonds are the main contributor to supply, with a net financing of 2.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 468.6 billion yuan from 2025 [9][15]. - Urban investment bonds: Due to continued strict supervision, the net financing is expected to shrink to -416.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 212.4 billion yuan from 2025 [10]. - Non - bank institutional bonds: With the expected recovery of the equity market, the full implementation of the I9 standard, and high refinancing pressure, the net financing is expected to reach 44.29 billion yuan, an increase of 11.97 billion yuan from 2025 [10]. - Commercial bank financial bonds: Under the policy guidance of淡化 "scale concept", the net financing is expected to be 24.43 billion yuan, close to 2025 [19]. - Bank secondary and perpetual bonds: Affected by factors such as state - owned bank capital injection, debt replacement, and the substitution of TLAC bonds, the net financing is expected to be 36.44 billion yuan, a decrease of 46.3 billion yuan from 2025 [19]. 3.2 Credit Bond Yield Overview - In the week of 2025/12/1 - 12/5, credit bond yields increased across the board. Non - financial credit bonds outperformed financial bonds, and among financial bonds, 10 - year brokerage sub - bonds performed best [24]. - Urban investment bonds generally showed a feature that the longer the duration, the greater the increase in yield. The 10 - year bonds had the largest average increase of 7bp [24]. - Industrial bonds: High - rating and short - duration bonds had a significantly lower average increase in yield than other types of bonds [24]. - Financial bonds: The increase in yield was generally greater than that of general credit bonds of the same term, and short - duration bonds had a smaller increase than medium - and long - duration bonds [25]. 3.3 Primary Market 3.3.1 Issuance Volume - In the week of December 1 - 5, 2025, the issuance scale of credit bonds decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The net financing decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The net financing of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds decreased by 4 billion yuan, 74.2 billion yuan, and 37.9 billion yuan respectively month - on - month [35]. 3.3.2 Issuance Cost - The average issuance interest rate of credit bonds increased. The average issuance interest rate of urban investment bonds decreased by 1.4bp month - on - month, while that of industrial and financial bonds increased by 15.8bp and 4.6bp respectively [41]. 3.3.3 Issuance Term - The average issuance term of credit bonds decreased month - on - month. The average issuance terms of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds decreased by 0.13 years, 0.02 years, and 0.19 years respectively [45]. 3.3.4 Cancellation of Issuance - In the week of December 1 - 5, 2025, the number of credit bond cancellations increased month - on - month, while the scale decreased. Nine bonds were cancelled, an increase of 2 from the previous week, and the total cancellation scale was 3.738 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.479 billion yuan [47]. 3.4 Secondary Market 3.4.1 Trading Volume - The trading volume of all types of credit bonds decreased compared with the previous week, and the trading volume of industrial bonds decreased by more than 50 billion yuan [53]. - In terms of remaining term, the trading terms of urban investment and industrial bonds extended, while the trading term of bank secondary capital bonds shortened [53]. 3.4.2 Trading Liquidity - This week, the turnover rates of industrial and financial bonds decreased, while that of urban investment bonds remained flat. Among different terms, the turnover rates of different types of bonds showed different trends [56]. 3.4.3 Spread Tracking - This week, the spreads of urban investment bonds narrowed for most bond types, except for 1 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year AA + and AA(2) bonds. The spreads of bank secondary and perpetual bonds widened across the board, and the spreads of brokerage sub - bonds mostly widened, while those of insurance sub - bonds widened across the board [64][70][72]. 3.5 Weekly Hot Bonds Overview - Based on qeubee's bond liquidity scores, the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of liquidity are selected for investors' reference [74]. 3.6 Credit Rating Adjustment Review - According to domestic rating agencies, this week, the debt rating of 1 bond was upgraded, and there was no downgrade of debt ratings [80].

【申万固收|信用周报】万科展期引发市场关注，收益率上行信用利差走阔——信用债市场周度跟踪 （20251124-20251130） 原创 阅读全文 申万宏源固收研究 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The credit bond market is experiencing significant activity with an increase in issuance and a variety of new products being introduced, while the secondary market shows rising yields and widening credit spreads. Group 1: Primary Market - The issuance scale of broad credit bonds has risen to 12,812.41 billion, an increase of 43.63%, with net financing rising by 2,332.98 billion to 4,082.25 billion [2][6] - Innovative products have seen a surge, with a total issuance of 2,136.64 billion, including 1,391.49 billion in sci-tech bonds and 731.28 billion in green bonds [2][6] - City investment bonds have also increased, with issuance rising by 23.42% to 1,090.82 billion and net financing turning positive at 206.96 billion [2][6][7] - The issuance scale of industrial bonds has reached 6,474.36 billion, up 43.91%, with net financing increasing by 1,021.88 billion to 2,294.91 billion [3][7] - Financial bonds have seen a rise in issuance to 3,763.3 billion, a 30.11% increase, with net financing up by 252.56 billion to 361.36 billion [3][8] Group 2: Secondary Market - Credit bond yields have generally risen, with the secondary market showing a quick upward trend in yields, particularly in subordinated perpetual bonds [4][9] - Credit spreads have widened, with the decline in credit bonds being more pronounced than in interest rate bonds, indicating a cautious market sentiment [4][9] - The market is expected to remain volatile in December, with attention on the impact of new regulations and the potential effects of Vanke's bond extension plan on the credit bond market [4][9]

Group 1 - The report indicates a cooling sentiment in the credit bond market, with institutions adopting a more conservative trading behavior, favoring short-term bonds over extending durations [1][6] - Overall performance in the credit bond market remains balanced, with credit spreads for bonds maturing within 5 years reaching their lowest point of the year [1][6] Group 2 - In the primary issuance segment, net financing increased to 1290.8 billion yuan for the week of November 17-21, 2025, compared to 361.2 billion yuan in the previous week [6][10] - The total issuance of major credit bond varieties amounted to 3846.4 billion yuan, with 2555.6 billion yuan maturing during the same period [6][10] - The distribution of issuers by credit rating shows that AAA-rated issuers accounted for the largest share at 60.1%, with diversified industries represented [6][7] Group 3 - In the secondary trading segment, total transactions decreased to 7783.28 billion yuan, down from 8032.22 billion yuan in the previous week [10][13] - The yields on medium-term notes (MTNs) generally declined, with the 3-year AAA MTN yield falling by 2.33 basis points to 1.86% [10][13] - The report notes a continued narrowing of spreads for short-term bonds, while long-term spreads showed limited movement [10][13] Group 4 - The report tracked credit rating adjustments, noting two upgrades for issuers in the municipal investment platform sector, with no downgrades reported [6][10] - There were two new extensions of bonds, with no new defaults recorded during the week [6][10]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: "Yield Mostly Declines Slightly, Medium- and Long-Term Credit Spreads Widen Slightly - Weekly Tracking of the Credit Bond Market (2025.11.10 - 2025.11.16)" [2] - Analysts: Huang Weiping, Yang Xuefang, Zhang Jinyuan [3] - Research support: Cao Xuan [3] - Report date: November 16, 2025 [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The primary market shows a decline in the net supply of ordinary credit bonds and secondary and perpetual (two - tier) bank bonds compared to the previous period [4]. - In the secondary market, yields mostly decline slightly, credit spreads generally widen, and 1 - year bonds perform well. The turnover rates of ordinary credit bonds and two - tier bank bonds both decrease [4]. - The bond market enters a policy and data vacuum period. With the unimplemented public offering redemption fee new regulations and the possible continuation of residents' deposit transfer to the equity market, attention should be paid to the coupon value of credit bonds in the volatile market [4]. - In terms of credit strategies, the 1 - 3 - year period still has carry - trade space and cost - effectiveness, and investors can also moderately focus on 3 - 5 - year high - grade bonds, but should remain cautious about extending credit duration [4]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 Primary Market 4.1.1 Ordinary Credit Bonds - Net financing decreases compared to the previous period, and subscription enthusiasm rises. The issuance of industrial bonds and urban investment bonds both decline slightly, and the net financing of urban investment bonds turns negative [4][7][11]. - The net financing of each enterprise nature is positive. The weighted issuance term is 2.98 years, a slight decrease from the previous period. The weighted issuance term of urban investment bonds increases, while that of industrial bonds decreases [16][17]. 4.1.2 Bank Two - Tier Bonds - Five small and medium - sized bank two - tier bonds are issued, and the net financing scale decreases compared to the previous period. The net financing of secondary capital bonds turns positive, while that of perpetual bonds decreases significantly [4][25][27]. 4.2 Secondary Market 4.2.1 Yields and Credit Spreads - Yields mostly decline slightly, and credit spreads, except for 1 - year bonds, generally widen. 3/5/7 - year weak - quality varieties see larger yield declines, while 10 - year AAA - grade ordinary credit bonds have a relatively large upward amplitude in yields [4][35][37]. - In terms of credit spreads, 1 - year bonds, except for medium - and high - grade urban investment bonds, all narrow, with low - grade bonds performing better. 5/7/10 - year medium - and high - grade bonds mostly widen, but the 5 - year AA - grade medium - term note performs best [4]. 4.2.2 Turnover Rate - The turnover rates of ordinary credit bonds and two - tier bank bonds both decrease [4] 4.3存量债分布 - Current yields are mostly distributed within 2.2% [34]

【申万固收|信用周报】收益率分化但利差多收窄，5Y普信表现占优——信用债市场周度跟踪 （20251102-20251109） 原创 阅读全文 申万宏源固收研究 ...