市场偏好短端下沉，而非拉久期 [Table_Authors] 张紫睿(分析师) 信用债市场周度回顾 251122 本报告导读： 本周信用债交投情绪降温，机构交易行为趋保守，市场偏好短端下沉强于拉久期； 信用债整体表现均衡，5Y 内各期限信用利差已来到年内低点。 投资要点： | | 021-23185652 | | --- | --- | | | zhangzirui@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040068 | | | 王宇辰(分析师) | | | 010-83939801 | | | wangyuchen4@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523020004 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 美元流动性收紧何时缓解 2025.11.18 大行短端买入力度减弱 2025.11.18 本轮移仓有何特征和机会 20251117 2025.11.17 大行融出回落，存单发行提升，6M 期限最多 2025.11.17 地方债发行渐入尾声 2025.11.17 证 券 研 究 报 告 略 周 报 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.11.23 [Tab ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: "Yield Mostly Declines Slightly, Medium- and Long-Term Credit Spreads Widen Slightly - Weekly Tracking of the Credit Bond Market (2025.11.10 - 2025.11.16)" [2] - Analysts: Huang Weiping, Yang Xuefang, Zhang Jinyuan [3] - Research support: Cao Xuan [3] - Report date: November 16, 2025 [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The primary market shows a decline in the net supply of ordinary credit bonds and secondary and perpetual (two - tier) bank bonds compared to the previous period [4]. - In the secondary market, yields mostly decline slightly, credit spreads generally widen, and 1 - year bonds perform well. The turnover rates of ordinary credit bonds and two - tier bank bonds both decrease [4]. - The bond market enters a policy and data vacuum period. With the unimplemented public offering redemption fee new regulations and the possible continuation of residents' deposit transfer to the equity market, attention should be paid to the coupon value of credit bonds in the volatile market [4]. - In terms of credit strategies, the 1 - 3 - year period still has carry - trade space and cost - effectiveness, and investors can also moderately focus on 3 - 5 - year high - grade bonds, but should remain cautious about extending credit duration [4]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 Primary Market 4.1.1 Ordinary Credit Bonds - Net financing decreases compared to the previous period, and subscription enthusiasm rises. The issuance of industrial bonds and urban investment bonds both decline slightly, and the net financing of urban investment bonds turns negative [4][7][11]. - The net financing of each enterprise nature is positive. The weighted issuance term is 2.98 years, a slight decrease from the previous period. The weighted issuance term of urban investment bonds increases, while that of industrial bonds decreases [16][17]. 4.1.2 Bank Two - Tier Bonds - Five small and medium - sized bank two - tier bonds are issued, and the net financing scale decreases compared to the previous period. The net financing of secondary capital bonds turns positive, while that of perpetual bonds decreases significantly [4][25][27]. 4.2 Secondary Market 4.2.1 Yields and Credit Spreads - Yields mostly decline slightly, and credit spreads, except for 1 - year bonds, generally widen. 3/5/7 - year weak - quality varieties see larger yield declines, while 10 - year AAA - grade ordinary credit bonds have a relatively large upward amplitude in yields [4][35][37]. - In terms of credit spreads, 1 - year bonds, except for medium - and high - grade urban investment bonds, all narrow, with low - grade bonds performing better. 5/7/10 - year medium - and high - grade bonds mostly widen, but the 5 - year AA - grade medium - term note performs best [4]. 4.2.2 Turnover Rate - The turnover rates of ordinary credit bonds and two - tier bank bonds both decrease [4] 4.3存量债分布 - Current yields are mostly distributed within 2.2% [34]

【申万固收|信用周报】收益率分化但利差多收窄，5Y普信表现占优——信用债市场周度跟踪 （20251102-20251109） 原创 阅读全文 申万宏源固收研究 ...

Group 1 - The core conclusion of the report indicates a significant increase in the subscription enthusiasm for public REITs since the beginning of 2025, with subscription multiples reaching historical highs. However, there is a notable divergence between the primary and secondary markets, where new projects have high offline subscription multiples but experience significantly reduced first-day price increases, even hitting new lows for the year [1][10][12] - The report attributes this divergence to three main factors: a general decline in the secondary market, increased caution among investors, and a shift in market sentiment towards stricter quality requirements for underlying assets [1][12][16] - The report highlights that since July 2025, the first-day turnover rates of newly listed REITs have remained high, indicating a strong participation of short-term speculative funds that tend to sell off on the first day, exerting downward pressure on the secondary market [1][16][22] Group 2 - The report notes that the expansion of the inquiry range and the pricing of new projects close to the upper limit of the inquiry range have narrowed the valuation gap between the primary and secondary markets, thereby squeezing the profit margins in the secondary market [2][19] - It emphasizes that the recent phenomenon of divergence in the REITs market is a result of multiple factors, including asset quality, market sentiment, funding behavior, and pricing mechanisms. As the new subscription yields continue to converge, the market is expected to shift from "short-term speculation" to "long-term allocation" [1][22] - The report suggests that investors should be cautious when participating in primary subscriptions and focus more on the quality of underlying assets. It identifies water conservancy and heating projects as having higher operational stability among listed asset types, while new asset types may receive valuation premiums upon listing, particularly in port and cultural tourism assets [1][22] Group 3 - The credit bond market review indicates mixed performance in credit bond yields, with public bonds generally outperforming bank perpetual bonds. The yields of 5-year public bonds decreased by 4-6 basis points, while 7-year bonds saw a decline of 2-4 basis points [23][24] - The report states that the issuance scale and net financing scale of credit bonds increased week-on-week, with a total issuance of 4,671.65 billion yuan, up 1,253 billion yuan from the previous week [32] - It also highlights that the average issuance interest rate of credit bonds decreased to 2.15%, down 7.4 basis points week-on-week, with significant declines observed in financial bonds due to a higher proportion of AAA-rated bonds [39][40]

Core Insights - The article provides an overview of the Chinese bond market performance for the first three quarters of 2025, highlighting trends in various bond categories and the competitive landscape among financial institutions [4][5]. Bond Market Overview - As of September 30, 2025, the issuance of Panda bonds by foreign institutions in China reached 137.75 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 14.44% compared to the same period last year [6]. - The total issuance of credit bonds in China for the first three quarters of 2025 was approximately 13.91 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of about 3.15% year-on-year [9]. - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit reached approximately 25.87 trillion yuan, up 6.90% from the previous year, driven by higher yields compared to government bonds [11]. Rankings and Market Shares - In the Bloomberg bond underwriting rankings for the first three quarters of 2025, Guotai Junan Securities led with a market share of 6.058%, followed by CITIC Securities (5.861%) and Industrial Bank (5.300%) [8]. - For corporate bonds, CITIC Securities (12.998%) and Guotai Junan Securities (12.826%) were the top two underwriters [8]. - In the offshore RMB bond rankings (excluding certificates of deposit), HSBC (6.960%) and Bank of China (4.435%) were among the top performers [16]. Local Government Bonds - The issuance of local government bonds reached approximately 851 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of about 29.65% year-on-year, with general bonds at 204 billion yuan and special bonds at 647 billion yuan [14]. Offshore Bond Market - The issuance of offshore bonds by Chinese enterprises (excluding certificates of deposit) exceeded 1.40 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 34.80% [17]. - The average coupon rate for newly issued Chinese dollar bonds has decreased by 102 basis points this year, making dollar financing more attractive compared to offshore RMB markets [22]. Conclusion - The article emphasizes the evolving dynamics of the Chinese bond market, with significant growth in local government bonds and offshore issuance, alongside competitive rankings among major financial institutions [4][5][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current credit bond market is generally stable but lacks a clear direction, in a transitional phase where negative factors are gradually digested and positive factors are not fully priced. Key policy variables such as the reform of fund redemption fees have not been implemented, restricting the improvement of risk appetite. [2][6] - Looking ahead, the market will mainly feature structural opportunities, and it is difficult to see a trending market. Policy variables, such as whether the central bank restarts bond - buying and the timing of the implementation of the new fund regulations, will directly determine the pricing direction. [2][7][8] - It is recommended that investors adopt a prudent allocation strategy, focusing on the coupon income and defensive value of medium - to high - grade medium - and short - term credit bonds, which have a "safety margin." At the same time, they should closely monitor policy progress and risk events such as tariff issues and flexibly adjust positions to prevent fluctuations. Long - term credit can wait for the right - side opportunity after the over - adjustment when uncertainties are cleared. [2][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Credit Bond Market in the Transitional Phase - From October 9th to October 12th, the credit bond market continued the adjustment trend since September. After continuous adjustment, negative factors in the market have been relatively fully priced, and the risk of a further sharp decline is controllable. The market is not short of positive factors, but the signals have not been fully valued and priced. [7] - Recently, the credit bond market has been affected by multiple factors, including the long - term restructuring pressure on the bond outsourcing investment structure caused by the redemption fee regulations draft issued by the CSRC, the strong performance of equity assets diverting bond allocation demand, and the incomplete clearance of potential redemption pressure, especially the local pressure on the liability side of wealth management and funds. [7] - This week, the yield fluctuations of credit bonds intensified. One - year - or less short - duration credit bonds became relatively stable, with faster yield recovery, while the credit spreads of long - duration assets further increased. [7] 3.2 Policy Variables Determine Market Direction - The core contradiction in the bond market in October still focuses on policy variables, including whether the central bank restarts bond - buying and the timing of the implementation of the new fund fee regulations. These factors will directly determine the pricing direction of credit bonds. [7][8] - If the central bank restarts bond - buying, it will release a signal of loose money, which is conducive to boosting the overall sentiment of the bond market, especially supporting interest - rate bonds and driving the narrowing of credit spreads. It is expected that the probability of the central bank restarting bond - buying in October is relatively high. [8] - If the new fund regulations are implemented, they may impact the scale of bond funds. Bonds preferred by funds, such as policy - financial bonds, secondary - tier two bonds, and ultra - long - term credit bonds, may be the first to be affected. Policy uncertainties will magnify the differentiation in terms and ratings. Medium - and short - term high - grade bonds are relatively resistant to decline and have a "safety margin," while long - duration weak - quality bonds may face greater fluctuations. [8] 3.3 Yield and Spread Overview - **Each term's yield and its change**: The yields of various bonds such as treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, and local government bonds showed different degrees of changes compared to last week, with different historical quantiles. For example, the 0.5 - year treasury bond yield was 1.39%, down 1.2bp from last week, and its historical quantile was 10.7%. [15] - **Each term's spread and its change**: The credit spreads of various bonds also changed, and the historical quantiles varied. For instance, the 0.5 - year credit spread of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds was 17bp, down 3.9bp from last week, and its historical quantile was 4.0%. [17] 3.4 Credit Bond Yield and Spread by Category (Hermite Algorithm) - **Urban investment bonds by region**: The yields and spreads of urban investment bonds in different regions showed different trends. For example, in Anhui, the 0.5 - year yield of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds was 1.82%, down 5.19bp from last week, and the 0.5 - year credit spread was 29.30bp, down 4.8bp from last week. [21][24] - **Yield and spread by implicit rating**: The yields and spreads of urban investment bonds with different implicit ratings also had distinct changes. For example, in Anhui, the yield of AAA - rated public non - perpetual urban investment bonds was 1.82%, down 0.9bp from last week, and the credit spread was 19.74bp, down 0.58bp from last week. [28][33] - **Yield and spread by administrative level**: The yields and spreads of urban investment bonds at different administrative levels showed different characteristics. For example, in Anhui, the yield of provincial - level public non - perpetual urban investment bonds was 1.81%, down 3.16bp from last week. [38]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the bond market and its current dynamics, including investor sentiment, monetary policy, and fiscal measures in response to trade tensions and economic pressures [1][2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Investor Sentiment**: Investors generally hold a bullish outlook on the bond market but are hesitant to make significant investments due to uncertainties surrounding tariff negotiations, economic downturn pressures, and the potential for monetary policy easing [1][2]. - **Policy Expectations**: There is low expectation for significant policy changes from the upcoming Politburo meeting at the end of April, with most investors anticipating a focus on maintaining economic stability and flexibility in policy implementation [1][3][5]. - **Tariff Impact**: Approximately 46% of investors believe that tariff impacts will ease in the third quarter, but overall sentiment regarding the annual outlook for tariff relief remains pessimistic [6][7]. - **Monetary Policy Outlook**: A majority of investors expect a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut in the next three months, with a smaller percentage anticipating interest rate cuts. The rationale for RRR cuts includes addressing liquidity gaps and supporting government bond issuance [9][10]. - **Bond Market Predictions**: Investors predict that the 10-year government bond yield will fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.8%, indicating a slight downward adjustment in market expectations [11]. Additional Important Content - **Trade Policy Response**: The policy response to trade tensions includes stabilizing the market, maintaining exchange rate stability, and expanding domestic demand, with a focus on service consumption as a key driver [12][13]. - **Service Consumption Policies**: Recent policies in the service consumption sector include direct subsidies for hospitality, dining, and transportation, with expectations for further financial support to stimulate consumption [14]. - **Real Estate Sector Focus**: Key points of interest in the real estate sector include government attitudes towards market stabilization and the potential for policy shifts regarding property development and financing [15][16]. - **Credit Bond Market Regulation**: Recent regulatory changes in the credit bond market have tightened oversight on local state-owned enterprises, impacting their financing capabilities [24]. - **Local Government Financing**: Local governments, particularly in Guangdong, are actively issuing special bonds to support land reserve projects, with a focus on expediting the issuance process compared to previous years [25][37]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and data points discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the bond market and related economic policies.

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 保持短久期、高流动性策略 信用债市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 报告发布日期 2025 年 10 月 13 日 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 估值小幅修复，底仓品种价值显现：可转 | 2025-09-29 | | --- | --- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank's support for financial institutions to issue bonds to enhance consumer credit supply is expected to enrich the credit - bond market product structure, but the credit risk and pricing of underlying assets need attention [3][11]. - The Fed's interest - rate cut eases the inversion pressure of the Sino - US interest - rate spread, providing external space for China's monetary policy. However, its impact on China's credit - bond market is mainly on the emotional and capital levels, and the real effect needs to be transmitted through domestic policies. Investors are advised to be cautious [4][14][16]. - The current credit - bond investment has entered a "cooling - off period", and the investment strategy should focus on coupon defense of short - and medium - term varieties, with more attention paid to industry fundamentals and individual credit - risk identification [16]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Hotspots - **Central bank supports financial institutions to issue bonds**: On September 17, the central bank stated that it would support financial institutions to issue financial bonds and ABS to enhance consumer credit supply. As of August 2025, the bond - issuance scale of financial institutions reached 3.53 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.06%. This move is expected to increase the supply of ABS products and enrich the credit - bond market variety structure, but the credit risk of underlying assets should be noted [3][10][11]. - **Fed's interest - rate cut**: On September 17, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%. It eases the Sino - US interest - rate spread inversion pressure, but the impact on China's credit - bond market is limited. The domestic bond - market logic is still dominated by internal factors. Investors are advised to be cautious [4][13][14]. Macroeconomic Data - At the end of August, the stock of social financing scale was 424 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%, with the growth rate decreasing by 0.2 percentage points compared with July. The new social financing scale in August was 2.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 463 billion yuan, mainly due to the weakened support of government bond financing for social financing. In terms of money supply, M1 in August was 6.0%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the M1 - M2 "scissors gap" narrowed to 2.8% [5][17]. Money Market - Last week, the central bank net - injected 1162.3 billion yuan through open - market operations. Affected by factors such as the approaching quarter - end, increased cash demand for the National Day holiday, and monthly time points, the capital price increased. The repurchase rates for terms within a month increased by 5 - 12 basis points, while the 3 - month and 1 - year Shibor changed little [6][20]. Credit - Bond Primary Market - Last week, the credit - bond issuance scale increased significantly to 326.103 billion yuan, with the daily average issuance scale increasing to 65.221 billion yuan. The cancellation of bond issuance decreased to 460.5 million yuan. All bond types and industries saw an increase in issuance scale. The infrastructure investment and financing industry had a net inflow of 38.49 billion yuan, and most industries in industrial bonds had a net inflow. The average issuance cost of credit bonds fluctuated, with a change range of 4 - 44 basis points [23][24][31]. Credit - Bond Secondary Market - Last week, the secondary - market spot - bond trading volume was 9261.011 billion yuan, with the daily average trading volume increasing to 1852.202 billion yuan, indicating increased trading activity. Affected by the "stock - bond seesaw" effect, most bond yields increased. The interest - rate bond yields increased by up to 5 basis points, and the credit - bond yields increased by 2 - 5 basis points. The credit spreads fluctuated within a narrow range, and the rating spreads changed little, with a change range within 3 basis points [35][38][42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the issuance of the second batch of Sci - tech Bond ETFs, the "over - rising" spread of component bonds remained stable at around 7 - 8bp, with no "front - running" phenomenon. If the scale of the second - batch ETFs expands rapidly, component bonds with a smaller "over - rising" margin may experience an excessive decline in valuation. Bonds with a maturity of more than 5 years or perpetual bonds have a smaller "over - rising" margin [5][8]. - Although the bond market fluctuated last week, credit bonds performed relatively stably. Credit bonds are still a choice for pursuing certainty, and medium - term bonds of 2 - 3 years can be quickly deployed. It is recommended to use the idea of mining based on the issuer's yield curve [5][12]. - Credit bonds are still the choice for pursuing certainty, and the 2 - 3Y medium - term can be quickly deployed. The idea of mining based on the issuer's yield curve is continued to be recommended, and riding opportunities or "convex points" of individual bonds can be found during the exploration towards the medium - and long - term [5][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Credit Bond Weekly Viewpoint - The second batch of Sci - tech Bond ETFs completed fundraising on September 12, with a total issuance of approximately 40.8 billion yuan and are scheduled to be listed on September 24. The "over - rising" spread of component bonds is stable, and the probability of large - scale redemptions and negative feedback is low. Component bonds with a smaller "over - rising" margin may see an excessive decline in valuation if the ETF scale expands [5][8]. - Last week, the bond market fluctuated, but credit bonds were stable. Credit bonds are a good choice for certainty, and 2 - 3Y medium - term bonds can be deployed. The idea of mining based on the issuer's yield curve is recommended [5][12]. 3.2 Credit Bond Weekly Review 3.2.1 Negative Information Monitoring - From September 15 to September 21, 2025, Wuhan Contemporary Technology Investment Co., Ltd. failed to pay the principal and interest of bond H20 Technology 4 on time. Shanghai Shimao Construction Co., Ltd., Sichuan Bluetown Development Co., Ltd., and Shanghai Shimao Co., Ltd. had major negative events such as overdue debts, being included in the list of dishonest被执行人, and large - scale litigation [16][17]. 3.2.2 Primary Issuance - From September 15 to September 21, the primary issuance of credit bonds was 326.1 billion yuan, a 25% increase from the previous period. The total repayment amount increased to 236.5 billion yuan, and the net inflow was 89.6 billion yuan, remaining the same as the previous period. The cost of new bonds for high - grade issuers increased, and 3 bonds were cancelled or postponed for issuance, with a total scale of 1.55 billion yuan [17][18][20]. 3.2.3 Secondary Trading - The valuation of credit bonds was generally stable, fluctuating within ±2bp, and credit spreads were passively narrowed by about 4bp. The 5Y - 1Y term spreads of all grades widened, while the 3Y - 1Y spreads were flat or slightly narrowed. The AA - AAA grade spreads were stable or declined. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds in each province narrowed by about 1bp on average, and only Ningxia widened. The spreads of industrial bonds in each industry also narrowed by about 1bp, with the media industry having the largest narrowing of 2bp. The liquidity of credit bonds improved, with the turnover rate increasing by 0.24pct to 1.77%. The top five real - estate companies with widening spreads were Times Holdings, Country Garden, Rongqiao, Logan Group, and Pearl River Investment [22][26][29].