2025 年 8 月 24 日 行业研究 磷肥出口二阶段配额落地，磷矿石价格坚挺行业景气依旧 ——基础化工行业周报（20250818-20250824） 要点 6 月开始进入磷酸一铵及磷酸二铵的出口集中期。当前我国肥料级磷酸一铵 及磷酸二铵出口需要进行法检同时执行配额制，根据往年情况出口配额通常 集中在 5-9 月期间。然而，根据海关总署数据 2025 年我国磷铵出口时间整 体有所延后，2025 年自 6 月开始磷铵出口量才出现明显上升。2025 年 1-7 月，我国磷酸一铵和磷酸二铵出口总量分别为 60.1 万吨和 158.3 万吨，同比 分别减少 49.4%和 21.7%。其中，2025 年 5-7 月我国磷酸一铵和磷酸二铵 的出口总量分别为 52.6 万吨和 150.4 万吨，相较于 2024 年 5-7 月出口总量 分别变动-40.1%和+1.4%。基于此，我们认为 2025 年我国磷铵出口将集中 在 Q3 进行，但考虑到 1-7 月出口量的明显缩减，我们预计 2025 年全年磷铵 出口量将少于 2024 年水平。 2025 年磷铵出口二阶段配额基本落地，当前海外磷铵价格仍显著高于国内水 平。2025 ...

Macro and Strategy Research - The economic data for July 2025 shows that the industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 6.0% and previous value of 6.8% [3] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year, below the expected 4.6% and previous value of 4.8% [4] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth is at 1.6%, also below expectations [4] Company Research: Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. (603799) - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 37.197 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.78%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.711 billion yuan, up 62.26% [15] - Nickel product shipments increased significantly, with nickel product output reaching 139,400 tons, a year-on-year growth of 83.91% [16] - The company has made significant progress in cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with a sales net profit margin of 9.33%, an increase of 1.44 percentage points year-on-year [16] Industry Research: Metal Industry - Frequent bidding by major magnetic material manufacturers is expected to boost the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide [10] - The steel industry is facing supply constraints due to tightened production policies, but demand may be impacted by construction site shutdowns [11] - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate due to insufficient fundamental support, with potential demand driven by seasonal inventory accumulation [11] - The rare earth market is seeing improved inquiry conditions, with light rare earth prices expected to be supported in the short term [12]

Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Involved - **Companies**: - Zhenyu Technology (震裕科技) - Tianyang Technology (天阳科技) - Yongtai Technology (永太科技) - **Industries**: - Robotics - Lithium Battery Materials - Stablecoins and Credit Card Services Key Points and Arguments Zhenyu Technology 1. **Entry into Robotics**: The company is fully entering the robotics field starting from lead screws, planning to build a fully automated production line by 2025. The focus is on precision components and components for robotics, leveraging experience from the new energy vehicle industry [1][2] 2. **Production Capacity**: Two semi-automated production lines for planetary roller screws have been established, with an average daily capacity of 100 sets. A fully automated production line is planned for 2025 to enhance consistency and stability in large-scale production [2] 3. **Product Development**: The company has successfully developed micro lead screw products and received small batch orders for precision components. Some robotic products have already been delivered in small quantities, generating revenue [3] Tianyang Technology 1. **Demand for Stablecoins**: There is a strong demand for stablecoins in the real economy, particularly in cross-border e-commerce and trade, due to their advantages over traditional bank settlements [5][7] 2. **Stablecoin Credit Card Product**: The company is promoting a credit card product that allows users to recharge using stablecoins. The technology for integrating blockchain stablecoin wallets is mature [8] 3. **Market Position**: Tianyang Technology is ranked first in the domestic credit card sector, with over 20 years of development history, establishing itself as a key partner in the payment ecosystem [9] Yongtai Technology 1. **Lithium Battery Material Profitability**: The profitability of the lithium battery materials sector is gradually improving, with a 34% year-on-year increase in structural component revenue in Q1 2025. The company expects continued rapid growth in revenue and profitability due to scale effects [4] 2. **Supply and Demand Balance**: The supply-demand balance for lithium hexafluorophosphate is improving, with a concentration of supply and steady growth in demand from the power and energy storage sectors [11] 3. **Production Efficiency**: The company has increased its production capacity for liquid dual fluorine to 67,000 tons per year, with rising utilization rates and reduced production costs due to process optimization [12] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The integration of stablecoins into credit card systems is seen as a significant innovation that could enhance transaction efficiency in international trade [7] - The focus on automation and efficiency in production lines across all companies indicates a broader industry trend towards technological advancement and cost reduction [4][12]

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively expanding its overseas operations and developing solid-state battery technology while maintaining strong financial performance and growth prospects in the lithium-ion battery materials industry. Group 1: Overseas Expansion and Tariff Impact - The company reported that the impact of U.S. tariffs is minimal, with only about 1% of total revenue coming from direct sales to the U.S. [1] - The company is working on local production capacity in the U.S., including a 200,000-ton electrolyte project in Texas, which is currently in the preparatory stage [1] Group 2: Solid-State Battery Technology - The company has developed a lithium sulfide-based solid electrolyte, which is currently in the pilot testing phase, focusing on material technology validation with downstream battery customers [2] - The company aims to maintain its core competitiveness through continuous product innovation and close communication with customers [2] Group 3: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 12.518 billion yuan and a net profit of 484 million yuan, with a basic earnings per share of 0.25 yuan [3] - The company reported a first-quarter revenue of 3.489 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 41.64%, and a net profit of 150 million yuan, up 30.8% year-on-year [6] Group 4: Future Growth Drivers - Future growth is expected to come from stable demand in the lithium battery materials industry and improved industry competition leading to normalized product prices [4] - The company is committed to an integrated and international strategy to capture overseas market opportunities and enhance profitability [4] Group 5: Industry Outlook - The lithium-ion battery materials industry is experiencing stable growth driven by demand in electric vehicles and energy storage applications, with ongoing advancements in battery technology [5] - The industry is expanding into new applications such as eVTOL and robotics, indicating a broad growth outlook [5] Group 6: Analyst Ratings and Predictions - Recent ratings from 11 institutions show 8 buy ratings and 3 hold ratings, with an average target price of 22.8 yuan [7] - Detailed earnings forecasts indicate expected net profits of 1.046 billion yuan in 2025, increasing to 2.040 billion yuan by 2027 [9]

Group 1: Company Overview and Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 12.518 billion CNY in 2024, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 484 million CNY, and a net profit of 382 million CNY after deducting non-recurring gains and losses [3] - Basic earnings per share were reported at 0.25 CNY per share [3] Group 2: Market Position and Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively expanding its overseas presence, with only about 1% of total revenue coming from direct sales to the U.S., indicating limited impact from U.S. tariffs [2] - Ongoing projects include a 200,000-ton annual production capacity for electrolyte in Texas, which is currently in the land acquisition and factory design phase [2] Group 3: Technological Development and Industry Outlook - The company is developing solid-state electrolytes using a lithium sulfide route, currently in the pilot testing stage, and is collaborating closely with downstream battery customers for material technology validation [3] - The lithium-ion battery materials industry is expected to maintain stable growth, driven by demand in electric vehicles and energy storage applications, with a focus on high safety, long cycle life, low cost, and high energy density [3]

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