2025 年 11 月 24 日 行业研究 加速聚焦核心，1-10 月核心 6 城土拍总价占比近半 ——土地市场月度跟踪报告（2025 年 10 月） 要点 2025 年 1-10 月，百城宅地成交建面同比-9%，成交楼面均价同比+15%。 2025 年 1-10 月，百城成交住宅类用地建面为 1.84 亿平，累计同比-9.3%；成交 楼面均价为 6,597 元/平方米，累计同比+14.9%。分能级城市来看，1-10 月， 一线城市：供应住宅类用地建面为 784 万平，累计同比-33.2%；成交建面为 692 万平，累计同比-24.4%；成交楼面均价为 40,610 元/平方米，累计同比+38.8%。 二线城市：供应住宅类用地建面为 1.02 亿平，累计同比+0.6%；成交建面为 7,912 万平，累计同比+7.6%；成交楼面均价为 7,260 元/平方米，累计同比+9.4%。 三线城市：供应住宅类用地建面为1.29亿平，累计同比-29.1%；成交建面为9,749 万平，累计同比-18.6%；成交楼面均价为 3,643 元/平方米，累计同比+7.4%。 2025 年 1-10 月，新增土储价值排名前三为中海地 ...

国债期货日报 2025/11/20 徐晨曦（投资咨询证号：Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 观点：关注央行政策态度 盘面点评： 周四期债早盘冲高回落，午后有所回升，但TL回升乏力。T、TF收涨，TL收跌，TS接近平盘。资金面恢复宽 松，DR001回落至1.36%附近。公开市场逆回购3000亿，净回笼100亿。 重要资讯： 1.一年期和五年期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）分别维持在3%和3.5%不变。 2.消息称住建部等多部门正在衡量一系列选项，包括首次在全国范围内对新增个人住房贷款提供贴息。其他正 在酝酿的措施还包括提高房贷借款人的个人所得税专项扣除，以及进一步降低住房交易契税等。 行情研判： 今日 A股高开低走，债市几乎未受影响。日内影响债市的主要是有关房地产政策的传言，导致早盘债市回 落，超长债受影响更为明显。三季度以来房地产市场再度转弱，我们认为传言并非空穴来风，相信各项政策 正在酝酿之中，未来将择机推出。对市场的影响主要在于短期情绪，即便政策未来推出也难以扭转房地产市 场的基本面，对债市的利空有限，利率中长期仍需保持低位。操作上，中期多单继续持有。 国债期货日度数据 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the current policy environment is being driven by fundamental pressures, suggesting that the policy response may exceed the levels seen in 2008 and 2014 [4]. - Real estate is identified as an early-cycle indicator, serving as a barometer for economic trends, making it a strategic investment focus [4]. - The competitive landscape within the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private firms expected to benefit more in the future [4]. - The report continues to support investment in first-tier cities and two-thirds of second-tier cities, indicating that this combination has historically performed better during sales rebounds [4]. - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are highlighted as critical areas to monitor, with first and second-tier cities likely to benefit more from these changes [4]. Summary by Sections New Housing Market - In the week, new housing transaction area in 30 cities was 1.59 million square meters, showing a week-on-week increase of 17.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 34.6% [2]. - The new housing transaction area for first-tier cities was 432,000 square meters, up 12.6% week-on-week but down 42.5% year-on-year [2]. - Second-tier cities recorded a transaction area of 881,000 square meters, up 24.7% week-on-week and down 23.4% year-on-year [2]. - Third-tier cities had a transaction area of 276,000 square meters, up 4.9% week-on-week but down 47.7% year-on-year [2]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The total transaction area for second-hand housing in 14 sample cities was 2.003 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week growth of 4.7% but a year-on-year decline of 17.0% [2]. - First-tier cities accounted for 856,000 square meters in second-hand transactions, up 8.7% week-on-week [2]. - Second-tier cities had a transaction area of 873,000 square meters, up 1.4% week-on-week [2]. - Third-tier cities recorded 273,000 square meters, up 3.7% week-on-week [2]. Credit Bonds - In the week of November 10-16, four credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, a decrease of eight from the previous week, with a total issuance of 3.62 billion yuan, down 6.63 billion yuan [3]. - The total repayment amount was 10.829 billion yuan, an increase of 4.359 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing amount of -7.209 billion yuan, down 10.989 billion yuan [3]. Market Performance - The report notes that the Shenwan Real Estate Index had a cumulative change of 2.7%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.78 percentage points, ranking 7th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [14]. - A total of 84 stocks in the real estate sector rose, while 30 stocks fell, with the top five gainers being Qianjing Garden, China Wuyi, Huaxia Happiness, Guancheng Datong, and Rongsheng Development, with gains of 61.0%, 30.0%, 26.3%, 21.6%, and 18.2% respectively [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that policy measures are being driven by fundamental economic pressures, suggesting that the current policy intensity may exceed that of 2008 and 2014, and is still in progress [4]. - Real estate serves as an early-cycle indicator, making it a key economic barometer for investment [4]. - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies performing well in land acquisition and sales [4]. - The report continues to favor investments in first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities, which have shown better performance during sales rebounds [4]. - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are crucial areas to monitor, with first- and second-tier cities expected to benefit more [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Current Resident Price Expectations - According to the central bank's survey, the proportion of urban depositors who are pessimistic about housing prices has returned to levels seen in Q3 2024, with optimism below 10% [11]. - In Q3 2025, 9.1% of residents expect prices to rise, while 55.6% expect them to remain stable, and 23.5% anticipate a decline [11]. - The report notes that the "924" policy was introduced during a period of market pessimism, leading to a marginal improvement in confidence, but this has waned over time due to a lack of new policies [11]. 2. Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 0.2% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.05 percentage points, ranking 24th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [2]. - New home sales in 30 cities totaled 134.6 million square meters, down 41.6% month-on-month and 47.2% year-on-year [2]. - Second-hand home sales in 14 sample cities totaled 190.2 million square meters, down 8.3% month-on-month and 28.0% year-on-year [34]. 3. Credit Bond Issuance - This week, 12 credit bonds from real estate companies were issued, totaling 10.25 billion yuan, an increase of 5.2 billion yuan from the previous week [3]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks due to the ongoing policy-driven recovery and the potential for improved performance in quality real estate companies [4]. - Recommended stocks include major players in both H-shares and A-shares, as well as local state-owned enterprises and property management firms [4].

Group 1 - The report highlights a favorable policy environment expected to support the banking sector's performance recovery in 2026, with a focus on value investment fundamentals [1][15][20] - The current macro policy has shifted from "one-way benefits" to a "two-way balance," which is more conducive to stable banking operations, emphasizing the importance of maintaining bank interest margins while supporting the real economy [2][16][20] - The banking sector is anticipated to see a gradual recovery in performance, driven by stabilizing interest margins and improving core profitability, with quality regional banks showing stronger resilience [3][17][21] Group 2 - The report identifies insurance and industrial capital as significant future incremental funding sources, with insurance companies expected to increase equity market allocations, particularly in banks with stable earnings and high dividend returns [4][18] - Local state-owned enterprises are actively increasing investments in local banks, creating a win-win situation for both parties, while asset management companies are also increasing their stakes in several national banks [4][18] - The report suggests focusing on banks with strong fundamentals and high dividend yields, as the importance of stock selection has increased in the current volatile market environment [5][19] Group 3 - The report recommends specific banks for investment, including Chengdu Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Nanjing Bank, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, China Construction Bank, Shanghai Bank, Ningbo Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, indicating a positive outlook for these institutions [9][19] - The anticipated stabilization of interest margins and recovery of non-interest income is expected to support the overall performance of listed banks in 2026, with quality banks likely to outperform [3][17][21] - The report emphasizes the need for a strategic focus on banks with quality fundamentals and dividend advantages, as the market shifts from a defensive high-dividend strategy to one that values fundamental quality and profitability elasticity [5][19]

Group 1 - The core issue affecting the real estate market is the declining purchasing power of ordinary citizens, rather than down payment ratios or loan interest rates [1] - The income of the general public is decreasing and becoming more unstable, leading to reduced financial resources available for purchasing homes [1] - The desire for marriage and family is becoming increasingly unrealistic for many, as individuals prioritize basic survival in the face of economic challenges, such as the resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic [1] - The fundamental solution for the real estate sector lies in improving the income of ordinary citizens, as the market's recovery depends on their purchasing power [1] - Wealthy families no longer need to buy additional properties, indicating a shift in market demand [1] - Without addressing the primary contradictions in the market, policy adjustments will be ineffective [1] Group 2 - The focus on mitigating financial risks includes the reform and risk resolution of small and medium-sized financial institutions [2] - Strategies such as mergers, restructuring, and market exit are being employed to address risks within small and medium-sized financial institutions [2] - There is an emphasis on strengthening early correction mechanisms for risk in small and medium-sized financial institutions [2] - Specific risk resolution measures are being implemented for individual securities companies [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Insights - The report highlights that the current policy environment is being driven by fundamental pressures, suggesting that the policy response may exceed the measures taken in 2008 and 2014 [4] - Real estate is viewed as an early-cycle indicator, serving as a barometer for economic trends, making it a strategic investment focus [4] - The competitive landscape within the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies performing well in land acquisition and sales [4] - The report continues to favor investment in first-tier cities and two-thirds of second-tier cities, indicating that this city combination has shown better performance during sales rebounds [4] - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are critical areas to monitor, with first and second-tier cities expected to benefit more [4] Summary by Sections New Housing Market - In the week, new housing transaction area in 30 cities was 2.111 million square meters, down 0.2% week-on-week and down 26.1% year-on-year [2] - The cumulative new housing transaction area for the year in these cities is 78.941 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.7% [2] Second-Hand Housing Market - The transaction area for second-hand housing in 14 sample cities was 2.117 million square meters, down 4.4% week-on-week and down 16.3% year-on-year [2] - Year-to-date, the cumulative transaction area for second-hand housing is 84.533 million square meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 13.9% [2] Credit Bonds - In the week of October 20-26, 18 credit bonds from real estate companies were issued, totaling 18.030 billion yuan, an increase of 10.155 billion yuan from the previous week [3] - The net financing amount reached 11.171 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 8.309 billion yuan week-on-week [3] Market Performance - The report notes that the Shenwan Real Estate Index had a cumulative change of 1.5%, lagging behind the CSI 300 Index by 1.73 percentage points, ranking 18th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [14] - A total of 89 stocks in the real estate sector rose this week, with the top five gainers being Xinhua Lian, Mianshi Investment, Wan Fang Development, Rongfeng Holdings, and Shen Zhen Ye A, with gains of 61.0%, 27.6%, 23.4%, 19.8%, and 14.7% respectively [14]

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic real estate market is experiencing a complex situation with favorable policies on one hand and alarming market data on the other [1] - Major banks have significantly lowered down payment ratios for first-time and second homes, which has eased financial pressure for potential buyers [1] - Cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have implemented "recognizing house, not loan" policies, stimulating market enthusiasm and leading to increased transaction volumes [1] Group 2: Market Challenges - In August, 42 cities saw a month-on-month decline in new home prices, while 96 cities experienced a drop in second-hand home prices, indicating a potential oversupply and downward price pressure [2] - The number of second-hand homes listed for sale has surged, with Shanghai nearing 200,000 listings and Beijing close to 190,000, suggesting an oversupply in the market [2] Group 3: Future Price Predictions - There are two contrasting views on future housing prices: optimists believe that policy stimuli will lead to a rebound, while pessimists argue that the long-term adjustment trend will result in significant price drops [3] Group 4: Key Factors Influencing the Market - A significant decline in home-buying demand is noted, as many families face income reductions or unemployment, limiting their purchasing power despite favorable policies [6] - The rental-to-sale ratio indicates a substantial bubble in housing prices, with the average recovery period for landlords in China being 50-60 years, compared to the international standard of around 20 years [8] - The rising household debt limits further leverage opportunities, with 42% of families owning multiple properties and a total mortgage scale approaching 39 trillion [8] - The government is increasing the supply of affordable housing to meet the needs of low- and middle-income groups, which may alleviate pressure on the commodity housing market [9]

Economic Growth Analysis - The overall economic growth in China has shown a slowdown in Q3, with GDP growth at 4.8%, down from 5.2% in the first three quarters [2][3] - Nominal GDP growth for Q3 was 3.7%, with a cumulative nominal GDP growth of 4.1% for the first three quarters [2] Factors Contributing to Slowdown - The slowdown is attributed to three main factors: reduced policy effectiveness, diminishing internal growth momentum, and weak consumer sentiment [3][4] - Macro policies were strong in the first half of the year but weakened in the second half, impacting economic support [3] - The effectiveness of certain policies, such as the consumption upgrade program, has diminished, leading to a decline in retail sales growth [3][4] Positive Economic Indicators - Despite the slowdown, there are positive signs such as improved industrial capacity utilization and a rebound in PPI [6][7] - Exports have remained resilient, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3% in September, supported by diversified markets and competitive products [7] - High-tech industries have shown robust growth, with a 9.6% increase in value-added output in the first three quarters [8] September Economic Performance - In September, exports and industrial production saw a rebound, while consumer spending and investment continued to decline [9][10] - Retail sales and catering revenue showed a decrease, indicating ongoing consumer weakness [10] - Real estate sales saw a slight improvement due to new policies in major cities, but overall investment remains low [11] Future Economic Outlook - The economic performance in Q4 will depend on the introduction of new policies, with potential GDP growth forecasted between 4.6% and 4.8% [13] - The need for new incremental policies is emphasized to support economic recovery [14][19] Recommendations for Policy Adjustments - Suggestions include increasing fiscal support, optimizing debt management, and enhancing monetary policy to stimulate economic activity [15][16] - A comprehensive approach to real estate policy is recommended to stabilize the market and support local governments [17][18] - Consumer-oriented policies should be developed to boost spending and improve income distribution [19][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the current policy environment is being driven by fundamental pressures, suggesting that the policy response may exceed that of previous years such as 2008 and 2014 [4]. - Real estate is viewed as an early-cycle indicator, making it a key economic barometer [4]. - The competitive landscape within the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies performing well in land acquisition and sales [4]. - The report continues to support investment in first-tier cities and select second- and third-tier cities, which have shown better performance during sales rebounds [4]. - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are highlighted as critical areas to monitor for future developments [4]. Summary by Sections Social Financing and Loan Trends - In September, the total social financing increased by 35,296 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2,339 million yuan, continuing the trend of reduced monthly increases [11]. - The new long-term loans for residents in September amounted to 2,500 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 200 million yuan, indicating a weak overall demand for housing loans [11]. New Housing Transactions - In the past week, 30 cities recorded new housing transaction areas of 2,105,000 square meters, a month-on-month increase of 152.1% but a year-on-year decrease of 29.1% [23]. - Cumulatively, for the first 42 weeks of the year, the total new housing transaction area in these cities was 76,819,000 square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5.0% [26]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - The total area of second-hand housing transactions in 14 sample cities was 2,204,000 square meters, a month-on-month increase of 161.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 15.3% [31]. - Year-to-date, the cumulative area of second-hand housing transactions reached 82,406,000 square meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 15.0% [31]. Credit Bond Issuance - In the week of October 13-19, 13 credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 7,875 million yuan, which is a significant increase from the previous week [40]. - The net financing amount was 2,862 million yuan, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 48.47 million yuan [40].