智通财经APP获悉，内房股继续走低，截至发稿，新城发展(01030)跌5.04%，报2.45港元；中国海外宏 洋集团(00081)跌4.15%，报2.31港元；融创中国(01918)跌1.82%，报1.62港元。 消息面上，中指研究院发布数据显示，1-9月百强房企销售总额为26065.9亿元，同比下降12.2%，降幅 较1-8月收窄1.1个百分点。9月单月，百强房企销售总额环比增长11.9%。中指研究院表示，9月，核心 城市继续优化需求端政策，但市场表现来看，除核心城市市场有所修复外，多数城市楼市表现相对平 淡，市场仍面临一定调整压力。 国泰海通证券认为，考虑4Q进入高基数期，维稳要求及四中背景下，政策逻辑依旧明显。光大证券 指，2025年，随着前期一揽子房地产政策的持续落地，地方政府楼市调控自主性提升，区域分化和城市 分化进一步加深，部分高能级核心城市将有望获益于城市更新，实现城市结构优化转型和内涵式发展， 逐步实现"止跌企稳"。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4] Core Views - The current monetary policy stance in China is supportive, with measures to optimize down payment ratios and mortgage rates, potentially reducing interest expenses for over 50 million households by approximately 300 billion yuan annually [10][11] - The real estate sector is viewed as an early-cycle indicator, making it a key economic barometer [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies expected to benefit more in the future [4] - The report emphasizes a focus on first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities, which have shown better performance during sales rebounds [4] - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are critical areas to monitor for future developments [4] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The real estate index decreased by 0.2% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.22 percentage points, ranking 11th among 31 sectors [12] - In the past week, 30 cities recorded new housing transaction areas of 186.1 million square meters, a 20.0% increase month-on-month but a 23.6% decrease year-on-year [23] New Housing Transactions - New housing transaction areas in first-tier cities reached 55.8 million square meters, up 11.6% month-on-month and up 12.5% year-on-year [23] - Second-tier cities saw transactions of 91.0 million square meters, a 41.9% increase month-on-month but a 20.5% decrease year-on-year [23] - Third-tier cities recorded 39.2 million square meters, down 4.1% month-on-month and down 50.6% year-on-year [23] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - The total transaction area for second-hand housing in 14 sample cities was 198.9 million square meters, a 1.4% increase month-on-month and a 13.9% increase year-on-year [31] - Year-to-date, the cumulative transaction area for second-hand housing is 7,815.4 million square meters, reflecting a 17.3% increase year-on-year [31] Credit Bond Issuance - This week, 14 credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 14.781 billion yuan, a 67.61 billion yuan increase from the previous week [41] - The net financing amount was 4.562 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of 111.56 billion yuan from the previous week [41]

Macro Dynamics - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, held a meeting on September 19 to discuss the implementation of the national ecological environment protection conference and the promotion of the Beautiful China initiative. The meeting also reviewed the draft amendment to the Banking Supervision Law, emphasizing the importance of stability in the banking sector for the financial system and consumer protection [2][3]. Financial Institutions - BlackRock reduced its stake in Industrial and Commercial Bank of China from 5.04% to 4.95% as of September 16. Additionally, BlackRock's holdings in Sunny Optical Technology decreased from 5.07% to 4.68%, and in Haier Smart Home from 7.09% to 6.99% [11]. Market Data - On September 19, the three major indices collectively declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.30%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.04%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.16%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.32 trillion, a decrease of 811.3 billion from the previous trading day. The semiconductor industry showed strength, with the photolithography machine sector leading gains [12]. - The financing balance in the two markets decreased by 2.628 billion, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange reporting a balance of 1.209 trillion and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange 1.169 trillion [14]. Company Dynamics - Chengdu KuaiGou Technology Co., Ltd. is under investigation for suspected violations of the E-commerce Law [15]. - Cisco Rui (688053.SH) received a notice of administrative penalty for false reporting in its 2022 annual report, inflating revenue by 9.9604 million and profit by 7.0054 million. The company faces a fine of 2 million, and related individuals received fines totaling 400,000 [16]. - Fudan Fuhua announced a change of stock abbreviation to "ST Fuhua" due to violations in its annual reports from 2019 to 2023, resulting in a proposed fine of 4 million [17]. - Creative Information (300366.SZ) will change its stock abbreviation to "ST Creative" due to over-reporting revenue in its 2022 and 2023 reports, leading to a proposed penalty [18]. - Juewei Foods (603517.SH) will also change its stock abbreviation to "ST Juewei" following an investigation into its revenue reporting from 2017 to 2021, with a proposed fine of 4 million [19]. - ST New Power (300152.SZ) is under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission for suspected information disclosure violations [20]. - Moore Thread's IPO is scheduled for review on September 26 [21][22]. - Huadian Technology plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [23]. - Shareholder Xiong Haitao of Jinfa Technology plans to reduce his stake by up to 26.3661 million shares, accounting for 1% of the total share capital [24]. - Board Secretary Yin Jialiang of Shiyun Circuit plans to reduce his stake by up to 26,600 shares [25]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a regulatory warning to Dingxin Communications for inaccurate disclosures regarding its relationship with Alibaba's semiconductor company [26]. - Xiaomi Auto announced a recall of 116,887 SU7 standard version electric vehicles due to safety concerns [27]. - Huang Yongzhang resigned from China National Petroleum Corporation and took a new position at China National Offshore Oil Corporation [28][29]. - Gao Fei was appointed as the General Manager of China Eastern Airlines Group [30]. - He Lin Weina's major shareholder terminated a share reduction plan early, having reduced 1.12% of the total share capital [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - level shows that the Ministry of Finance will implement a more proactive fiscal policy, and Shenzhen has adjusted real - estate policies in three aspects: relaxing purchase restrictions, loosening corporate home - buying, and optimizing credit [1][4][10] - In terms of fundamentals, last week's industrial data was average. Steel production decreased, hot - rolled coil apparent demand rebounded, but rebar apparent demand declined. The peak - season demand expectation was hard to fulfill, and rebar inventory continued to accumulate. With good steel - mill resumption, strong raw - material support, limited peak - season demand recovery, and weak spot prices, steel futures prices are expected to fluctuate [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3127 | - 16 | - 0.51 | 9051013 | 3329767 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3364 | 24 | 0.72 | 2667967 | 1323310 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 799.5 | 10.0 | 1.27 | 1727027 | 538976 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1144.5 | - 14.0 | - 1.21 | 6923190 | 910688 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1625.5 | - 21.0 | - 1.28 | 130356 | 52840 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated slightly down. From Monday to Thursday, prices dropped due to poor demand recovery, and on Friday, policy expectations increased, warming market sentiment and pushing up steel prices. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 3010 (+20) Yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3220 (-20) Yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3400 (+20) Yuan/ton [4] 3.3 Industry News - In August, China's steel exports were 9.51 million tons, a decrease of 326,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decline of 3.3%. From January to August, cumulative steel exports were 77.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10% [6][7] - The preliminary value of the change in the US non - farm employment benchmark in 2025 was - 911,000, expected to be - 700,000, and the previous value was - 598,000 [10] - China's PPI in August decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the month - on - month change turned from a 0.2% decrease to flat. China's CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, with a flat month - on - month change [10] - In August, automobile production and sales in China were 2.815 million and 2.857 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% and 10.1%, and a year - on - year increase of 13% and 16.4% [10] - On September 5th, Shenzhen adjusted real - estate policies in three aspects: relaxing purchase restrictions, loosening corporate home - buying, and optimizing credit [1][4][10] - On September 14th, China and the US held talks on economic and trade issues in Madrid, Spain [10] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report includes 20 charts showing the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures, basis, spot price differences, steel - mill profits, blast - furnace operating rates, production, inventory, and apparent consumption [9][11][18] etc.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][32] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market continues to adjust, with a month-on-month decline in sales for the top 100 real estate companies, although the year-on-year decline has widened [1][11] - The report emphasizes that the current policy environment is expected to be more forceful than in previous years, driven by fundamental market pressures [4][32] - The competitive landscape is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select private firms expected to benefit more in the future [4][32] Summary by Sections Monthly Sales Performance - In August, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales amount of 206.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 2.0% [1][11] - Cumulative sales from January to August for the top 100 companies reached 2,070.86 billion yuan, down 13.1% year-on-year [1][11] Tiered Company Performance - Among different tiers, the top 21-30 companies experienced the smallest decline in sales at 8.7%, while the top 51-100 companies saw the largest decline at 17.6% [2][15] - The sales threshold for the top 10 companies decreased from 58.55 billion yuan to 56.06 billion yuan, a decline of 4.3% year-on-year [2][26] Leading Companies - In August, 8 out of the top 10 companies reported month-on-month sales growth, with notable performances from China Overseas Property, Greentown China, and China Merchants Shekou [3][28] - Cumulative sales for the top companies from January to August showed that Poly Developments led with 166.7 billion yuan, followed by Greentown China and China Overseas Property [29][30] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate stocks due to the expected policy-driven market recovery, particularly in first-tier and select second-tier cities [4][32] - Recommended stocks include Greentown China, China Merchants Shekou, and Poly Developments among others [4][32]

Core Viewpoint - Nanshan Holdings reported significant growth in both revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 5.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 112.29%, and net profit attributable to shareholders amounting to 91.53 million yuan, up 177.44% compared to the previous year [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2025 reached 5.78 billion yuan, up 112.29% from 2.723 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 91.53 million yuan, compared to a loss of 11.8 million yuan in 2024, marking a 177.44% increase [1] - Gross margin decreased to 21.71%, down 6.34% year-on-year, while net margin improved to 1.87%, an increase of 208.02% [1] - Total expenses (selling, administrative, and financial) amounted to 782 million yuan, accounting for 13.53% of revenue, a decrease of 47.94% year-on-year [1] - Earnings per share rose to 0.03 yuan, a 175% increase from a loss of 0.04 yuan in 2024 [1] Business Model and Cash Flow - The company's business model relies heavily on capital expenditure and marketing, necessitating close monitoring of capital projects and cash flow [3] - Cash flow metrics indicate that cash and cash equivalents represent only 9.01% of total assets, and cash flow from operations is only 4.65% of current liabilities [3] - The company has a high debt ratio, with interest-bearing liabilities amounting to 43.08% of total assets [3] Real Estate and Logistics Operations - The real estate segment saw significant sales growth, with total sales reaching 6.04 billion yuan in 2024, driven by improved market conditions [7] - The logistics segment reported a gross margin of 45.80% in 2024, with ongoing projects contributing to revenue stability [5] - The company is actively participating in government land storage policies to manage inventory and enhance asset value [8] Fund Holdings and Market Sentiment - The largest fund holding Nanshan Holdings is the Invesco Great Wall Quantitative Small Cap Stock A, which recently increased its position [4] - The company has received positive feedback regarding its growth drivers and is focused on maintaining cash flow stability amid market fluctuations [4]

Financial Performance - Nanshan Holdings reported a total revenue of 5.78 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 112.29% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 91.53 million yuan, up 177.44% compared to the previous year [1] - The gross margin was 21.71%, a decrease of 6.34% year-on-year, while the net margin improved to 1.87%, an increase of 208.02% [1] Key Financial Metrics - The company's operating expenses, including sales, management, and financial costs, totaled 782 million yuan, accounting for 13.53% of revenue, down 47.94% year-on-year [1] - Earnings per share increased to 0.03 yuan, a rise of 175.00% year-on-year, while operating cash flow per share improved to 0.43 yuan, up 187.89% [1] - The company's total assets included cash and cash equivalents of 5.93 billion yuan, a 9.27% increase from the previous year [1] Business Model and Strategy - The company relies heavily on capital expenditure and marketing to drive performance, indicating a need for careful evaluation of capital projects and spending [3] - Nanshan Holdings has experienced a weak historical return on invested capital (ROIC), with a median of 3.91% over the past decade, and a particularly poor ROIC of -1.64% in 2024 [3] - The company is focusing on improving cash flow and managing debt levels, with a current interest-bearing debt ratio of 43.08% [4] Real Estate Development - The real estate segment achieved total sales of 6.04 billion yuan in 2024, with a focus on maintaining a cautious investment strategy in core cities [9][10] - The company plans to adjust sales strategies flexibly to enhance cash flow and reduce inventory [9] - Nanshan Holdings is actively participating in government land acquisition initiatives to optimize asset management and inventory reduction [10] Logistics and Warehousing - The logistics segment reported a gross margin of 45.80% in 2024, with ongoing projects contributing to revenue growth [6][7] - The company is exploring public REITs to enhance asset management and liquidity, with plans for future asset securitization [8] Fund Holdings - The largest fund holding Nanshan Holdings is the Invesco Great Wall Quantitative Small Cap Stock A, which has recently entered the top ten holdings [5] - The fund has shown significant growth, with a 74.52% increase over the past year [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term macro upward drive is marginally strengthening, with the market focusing on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [2][3]. - Different asset classes are expected to show short - term range - bound trends, and specific investment strategies vary according to different sectors. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas: The attempt to remove Fed Governor Cook has raised concerns about central bank independence, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and an increase in global risk appetite. - Domestic: China's economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations. Policy stimulus has been strengthened, and the short - term external risk uncertainty has decreased while domestic easing expectations have increased, resulting in an overall increase in domestic risk appetite. - Asset Recommendations: Stocks are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level, and cautious observation is advised; commodities in different sectors are generally expected to oscillate in the short term, and cautious observation is recommended [2]. Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as rare earth concepts, biomedicine, and small metals, the domestic stock market declined slightly. - With the strengthening of policy stimulus, the reduction of short - term external risk uncertainty, and the increase in domestic easing expectations, the short - term macro upward drive is marginally strengthening. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are supported in the short term due to increased concerns about independence, rising risk of stagflation, and strengthened rate - cut expectations. However, attention should be paid to the Fed's attitude changes, and the market focus is on the upcoming US PCE data [4][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures markets of steel continued to be weak. Demand was weak, inventory increased, and supply was expected to decline in the future. With strong cost support, a range - bound approach is recommended in the short term [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined. With strong northern production - restriction expectations, cautious procurement by steel mills, and increasing supply pressure, a range - bound approach is expected in the short term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices were flat, and the futures prices declined slightly. Supply in some regions was increasing, but there were potential production - cut plans. A range - bound approach is recommended in the short term [7][8]. - **Soda Ash**: There is a situation of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - side contradiction is the core factor suppressing prices. It is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [9]. - **Glass**: Supply is stable, demand is difficult to increase significantly, and it is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term under the boost of real - estate news [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The impact of Trump's attempt to remove Cook on the copper market is expected to be small in the short term, and domestic demand is expected to weaken marginally [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: The price declined slightly. The fundamentals changed little, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term with limited upward space [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, production costs are rising, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term with limited upward space [11]. - **Tin**: Supply is expected to be relatively loose in the long term, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: After the previous sentiment subsided, it is expected to oscillate in a wide range, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is expected to oscillate in a range, considering the high - level oscillation of black metals and polysilicon [13]. - **Polysilicon**: It is facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Concerns about the Fed's independence and the potential impact of US tariffs on India's oil imports have affected oil prices. There is still some support for oil prices in the near term [16]. - **Asphalt**: Supported by anti - involution in the petrochemical industry and rising crude oil prices, but with limited inventory reduction, it is expected to remain weakly oscillating in the near term [16]. - **PX**: It is in a tight situation in the short term and is expected to oscillate while waiting for changes in PTA device operations [16]. - **PTA**: Driven by capacity adjustments and increased downstream demand, it is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillating pattern in the short term [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory has decreased slightly. Supported by downstream demand recovery, but facing supply pressure, short - term buying on dips should pay attention to crude oil cost fluctuations [18][19]. - **Short - fiber**: Driven by sector resonance, its price increased slightly. It is expected to follow the polyester sector and may be shorted on rallies in the medium term [19]. - **Methanol**: The fundamentals are showing marginal improvement, but the oversupply situation remains. It is expected to oscillate in price [19]. - **PP**: Supply pressure is increasing, but there is policy support. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should focus on peak - season inventory - building [19]. - **LLDPE**: Supply pressure remains, and demand shows signs of turning. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should focus on demand and inventory - building [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The selling pressure of US Treasuries has increased, and the weakening of the US dollar has provided some support to commodities. The expected Sino - US trade negotiations have boosted the export sales expectations of US soybeans [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation of domestic soybean and soybean meal in oil mills has eased. Rapeseed meal still has the basis for upward fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the development of Sino - Canadian trade relations [21]. - **Oils**: Rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, and the supply is expected to shrink; soybean oil is expected to have a low - valuation price - increase market; palm oil is expected to enter an oscillating phase [21]. - **Corn**: The national corn price is running weakly. The futures price has entered a relatively low - valuation range, and there is a low possibility of breaking through the previous range [21]. - **Pigs**: The weight of pigs has declined, and the second - fattening market is cautious. The market's pessimistic sentiment about the fourth - quarter outlook has increased [22].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant volume increase on August 25, followed by a style shift and adjustments in major indices on August 26, indicating potential volatility and market reactions to external factors [1][2][6]. Market Performance - After the initial drop, the three major indices turned positive by midday, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.73%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.21% [2]. - The MSCI China Index adjustment, which included the addition of 14 stocks and the removal of 17, is expected to cause short-term market fluctuations [2][6]. Market Dynamics - The market showed a divergence in performance, with technology stocks underperforming while micro-cap stocks gained strength, as indicated by the micro-cap index rising over 1% [4][6]. - The average stock price rebounded after adjustments, and the trading volume showed a contraction of nearly 240 billion, suggesting a potential for further market movement if volume stabilizes [6]. Currency and Policy Impact - The recent appreciation of the RMB, with a gain of over 500 points since August, is likely to support asset prices in the short to medium term [2][6]. - Changes in real estate policies and expectations of interest rate cuts in the U.S. are contributing to the RMB's strength, which in turn affects market liquidity and stock performance [9]. Future Expectations - Analysts anticipate increased market volatility in September, with the potential for early market reactions to this expectation [8]. - Key variables influencing future market trends include the performance of the RMB and the real estate market, with recent data indicating a decline in housing transactions and prices in major cities [9]. Economic Indicators - The M1 money supply is highlighted as a crucial variable, with current A-share gains driven more by liquidity and market sentiment rather than fundamental improvements [10].

中国央行上海总部：在利率定价机制安排方面，上海市商业性个人住房贷款利率不再区分首套住房和二套住房。 https://t.co/mOoxCxONgP外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):上海发布《关于优化调整本市房地产政策措施的通知》明确进一步调减住房限购政策。本地户籍及社保个税缴满1年的非户籍居民在外环外购房不限套数（成年单身限购）。 https://t.co/GksXCJdXvN ...