Financial Data Overview - In October 2025, new social financing (社融) amounted to 815 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 597 billion RMB, falling short of the market expectation of 1.53 trillion RMB[2] - New RMB loans totaled 220 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion RMB, also below market expectations by 240 billion RMB[2] Social Financing Contributions - The year-on-year decrease in social financing was primarily due to a reduction in government bond supply, contributing 560.2 billion RMB, and a decrease in RMB loans by 316.6 billion RMB[3] - Corporate bonds increased by 148.2 billion RMB year-on-year, while foreign currency loans and stock financing rose by 51 billion RMB and 41.2 billion RMB, respectively[3] Credit Market Insights - On the credit side, corporate bill financing was the main contributor, with corporate loans increasing by 220 billion RMB, and corporate bill financing rising by 331.2 billion RMB year-on-year[4] - Residential short-term and long-term loans decreased by 335.6 billion RMB and 180 billion RMB, indicating a need for consumer spending stimulation[4] Monetary Supply Trends - M1 growth rate fell by 1.0 percentage points to 6.2%, while M2 growth rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 8.2%[5] - Non-bank deposits increased by 770 billion RMB, while both resident and corporate deposits decreased by 770 billion RMB and 355.3 billion RMB, respectively[5] Market Strategy Outlook - The overall financial data indicates a decline, but the market is expected to maintain a bullish stance on bonds due to stable liquidity and year-end calendar effects[6] - The yield on 10-year government bonds fell slightly to 1.8025% following the release of financial data, reflecting market adjustments[6]

中泰证券研报指出，信贷增速下降是合理现象，反映我国金融供给侧结构的变化。1、与银行贷款相 比，社会融资规模和货币供应量等总量指标更为全面、合理，观察金融总量要更多看社会融资规模、货 币供应量指标。2、信贷增速下降属于合理现象，反映我国金融供给侧结构的变化：一是近两年地方专 项债置换融资平台贷款、中小银行改革化险与中长期经济结构演变的趋势叠加，阶段性下拉贷款增长。 二是去年以来，地方政府发行4万亿元特殊再融资债券，其中约六到七成用于偿还银行贷款。三是2024 年金融机构贷款核销约1.3万亿元，今年前9个月已核销超1万亿元。四是轻资产行业对信贷依赖度较 低，难以弥补地产缺口。 ...