尽管10月融资总量增速有所回落，但10月金融数据在结构上仍有一些积极变化。一是直接融资持续回 暖。10月企业债券净融资同比多增1482亿元，股票融资同比多增412亿元，且已连续8个月同比多增。这 表明企业开始更多利用市场化的直接方式进行融资，有利于降低整个金融体系杠杆风险。二是政策性工 具开始发力。10月委托贷款增加1653亿元，同比多增1872亿元。这主要得益于10月5000亿元新型政策性 金融工具的投放，显示出财政政策正在加强与货币政策协同发力。10月，居民存款大幅减少1.34万亿 元，而非银金融机构存款大幅增加1.85万亿元。这表明在股市赚钱效应下，居民储蓄正在向资本市场、 理财市场转移。 当然，10月金融数据反映出当前经济有效需求不足，尤其是居民部门的消费意愿有待提振。10月住户贷 款减少3604亿元，同比多减5204亿元。无论是与消费相关的短期贷款，还是与住房密切相关的中长期贷 款，都有所下降。与此同时，企业有效需求仍显不足。虽然企业部门贷款同比多增，但主要依靠票据融 资冲量来支撑（同比多增3312亿元），而代表企业真实扩张意愿的中长期贷款仅微增300亿元。当然， 融资总量数据趋缓，还与政府债支撑力 ...

为什么宏观里的"钱"越来越宽，微观里的"心"却越来越重？目光投向这一"以债（券）补贷（款）"阶段 的中国货币新结构。 当上证指数于11月13日触及10年来新高，A股总市值再创纪录的同时，中国10月的金融数据却并不"亢 奋"：人民币新增贷款大幅低于预期，信贷增长处于历史低位。社会融资规模和M2（广义货币）虽保持 在"合理偏宽"区间，但拆开结构看，越来越多的增量来自政府债与其他债券工具。 再回头解读中国人民银行（下称"央行"）近日发布的《2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告》，特别 是对"直接融资"表述的反复强化，似乎能看到一条清晰的主线：我们正从"信贷驱动的宽货币"，迈 向"以债补贷、股债并举"的新型货币信用结构。 当直接融资占比提升、资本市场升温，实体经济的体感会被这种新结构捂"热"或有效缓解吗？ 01 数据先说话："以债补贷"托起社融 先看总量。10月末，M2余额335.13万亿元，同比增长8.2%；社会融资规模存量为437.72万亿元，同比增 长8.5%。放在名义经济增速的坐标系里，这组数字可以被视为"合理偏宽"。 一方面，现实层面，信贷增速问题已无法回避。如地方政府专项再融资债券替代平台贷款、房地产相 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in China's monetary structure from a credit-driven model to a new model characterized by "debt supplementing loans" and a focus on direct financing, highlighting the implications for the real economy and capital markets [2][3][16]. Group 1: Monetary Structure Changes - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the increasing importance of direct financing in its recent reports, indicating a significant shift in the financing structure [3][8]. - As of October, the balance of M2 was 335.13 trillion yuan, growing by 8.2% year-on-year, while the social financing scale reached 437.72 trillion yuan, up 8.5% year-on-year, suggesting a "reasonably loose" monetary condition [5]. - The proportion of RMB loans in the social financing scale has decreased, with government bonds and other debt instruments taking a more prominent role, indicating a transition to a "wide currency, weak credit" scenario [5][6]. Group 2: Capital Market Dynamics - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a 10-year high, reflecting a bullish sentiment in the market, driven by ample liquidity in the banking system and a need to stimulate effective financing demand [12]. - The report indicates that the increase in direct financing is expected to influence the total monetary volume and financial regulation deeply, suggesting a structural uplift in the financial capital market's weight [12][14]. - However, the article warns that this does not guarantee a complete transition to a market-driven capital structure, as several challenges remain, including the need for stable corporate earnings and changes in household asset allocation behavior [14][16]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The article posits that China is at an early stage of rewriting the relationship between monetary policy, fiscal policy, and capital markets, with a structural shift underway but a long way to go before a paradigm shift from credit-driven to capital-driven growth is achieved [17]. - Future observations should focus not only on the macro indicator of direct financing but also on micro-level changes, such as consumer spending behavior and the stability of producer incomes, to assess the effectiveness of this structural transition [17].

再看结构。落到"信用"这条线，10月末，本外币贷款余额274.54万亿元，同比仅6.3%，其中人民币贷款余额270.61万亿元，同比6.5%，已经处在有统计以来 的低位区间；前10个月人民币贷款增加14.97万亿元，比上年同期少增1.16万亿元；10月单月新增人民币贷款2200 亿元，环比大幅回落，也明显低于市场此 前对"信用修复"的期待。 拆解社会融资规模的结构来看，10月末，对实体经济发放的人民币贷款余额占社会融资规模存量的61%，同比下降1.3个百分点；同期政府债券余额同比增 长19.2%，余额占比升至21.3%，同比上升2个百分点；前10个月，社会融资规模增量合计30.9万亿元，其中政府债券净融资11.95万亿元，比上年同期多增 3.72万亿元。 欧阳晓红/文 为什么宏观里的"钱"越来越宽，微观里的"心"却越来越重？目光投向这一"以债（券）补贷（款）"阶段的中国货币新结构。 当上证指数于11月13日触及10年来新高，A股总市值再创纪录的同时，中国10月的金融数据却并不"亢奋"：人民币新增贷款大幅低于预期，信贷增长处于历 史低位。社会融资规模和M2（广义货币）虽保持在"合理偏宽"区间，但拆开结构看，越来 ...

对于10月经济和金融数据，需采取结构性的视角加以审慎观察。逆周期调节政策需要对投资和消费两方 面进行发力，保证总需求稳中有升。今年出口增速仍能保持韧性，需关注国际局势的潜在影响。而有利 于物价回升的因素也在增多，CPI和PPI的传导将有利于价格逐步回升至目标区间。下个月中央经济工作 会议即将召开，市场将高度关注明年的经济工作安排。 21世纪经济报道评论员 胡光旗 客观看待10月金融数据的结构性变化趋势 其次，政府债券融资对社融的贡献度回落。10月政府债券融资额新增4893亿元，同比少增5602亿元。今 年超长期特别国债和特殊再融资债已基本完成全年额度，四季度或难再有大规模新增。过去两年由于国 家层面推进地方政府化债，政府债"以旧换新"下的供给规模较大，在过去较高基数的影响下，10月新增 规模有所减少也是合理的。不过四季度开始财政支出或将显著加力提升，对于金融数据回升或可形成一 定支持。 10月非银机构新增存款18500亿元，同比多增7700亿元，相对于9月环比大幅多增，非银存款的高增主要 与资金流入股市有关。 面对10月信贷走势，央行在三季度货币政策执行报告专栏1中也给予回应。央行倾向于通过社会融资规 模结构 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has indicated a significant change in the structure of financing in its third-quarter monetary policy report, which is crucial for understanding the dynamics of the housing market and investment strategies. Group 1: Financing Structure Changes - The financing structure in China is shifting from primarily loan-based financing to direct financing through bonds, with loans now accounting for less than 50% of new financing in the third quarter of 2023 [9][14]. - This change implies that the traditional view of using M2 growth as an indicator for housing prices is no longer valid, as the increase in M2 may not correlate with housing market dynamics [13][14]. Group 2: Implications for Housing Market - The report emphasizes that the increase in M2 is largely driven by bond issuance, which does not directly contribute to housing market liquidity, leading to a potential scenario where M2 can grow while housing prices decline [14][18]. - The only reliable indicator for predicting housing market trends remains the growth in household loans, as these directly translate into purchasing power for the housing market [15][18]. Group 3: Economic and Stock Market Analysis - For broader economic and stock market analysis, the focus should be on social financing (社融) and M2, as these metrics provide a comprehensive view of the financial landscape [11]. - The report suggests that the shift towards direct financing will primarily affect economic indicators and stock market performance, rather than the housing market [18].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) released the "Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Third Quarter of 2025," highlighting the relationship between base money and broader money supply, emphasizing that base money is the source of money creation and the foundation of the banking system's asset-liability activities [1] Group 1: Base Money and Broad Money - Base money, also known as "high-powered money," includes cash in circulation and commercial banks' reserves at the central bank, totaling 38.6 trillion yuan as of Q3 2025, while the broad money supply (M2) exceeded 335 trillion yuan [1] - Base money and broader money are distinct concepts; base money is a liability of the central bank, while broader money reflects the disposable funds of residents, enterprises, and governments, primarily representing commercial bank liabilities [1] Group 2: Money Creation Process - The money creation process involves central banks, commercial banks, and the real economy, where commercial banks derive deposits through asset expansion, forming broad money [2] - The ability of commercial banks to create money is influenced by the effective financing demand from the real economy, meaning that money creation occurs when there is a willingness and capacity to lend [2] Group 3: Diversification of Financing Channels - The traditional dominance of bank loans in China's financial system is evolving, with direct financing rapidly developing, allowing banks to diversify their asset expansion methods, including purchasing bonds [3][4] - As of now, bank loans account for approximately 60% of total bank assets, while the proportion of bonds held has increased from about 20% at the end of 2019 to around 25% [4] Group 4: Structural Changes in Monetary Policy - The PBOC is adapting its base money injection methods to support the evolving financing structure, utilizing structural monetary policy tools, with these tools accounting for about 13% of base money as of Q3 2025 [4] - The central bank's re-lending serves as a crucial channel for regulating base money, reflecting the borrowing relationship between the central bank and commercial banks, rather than direct loans to enterprises [4] Group 5: Long-term Financial Market Development - The development of direct financing and changes in the financing structure are expected to have profound impacts on the total money supply and financial regulation [5] - Future monetary policy will focus on transforming the regulatory framework to emphasize price-based controls, enhancing the effectiveness of interest rate adjustments in resource allocation [5]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) released the "Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Third Quarter of 2025," highlighting the relationship between base money and broader money supply, emphasizing that base money is the source of money creation and affects the banking system's asset-liability activities [1] Group 1: Base Money and Broad Money - Base money, also known as "high-powered money," is a liability of the central bank and includes cash in circulation, required reserves, and excess reserves held by commercial banks [1] - As of the end of Q3 2025, China's base money balance reached 38.6 trillion yuan, while the broad money supply (M2) exceeded 335 trillion yuan [1] Group 2: Money Creation Process - The money creation process involves the central bank, commercial banks, and the real economy, where commercial banks derive deposits through asset expansion, forming broad money [2] - The ability of commercial banks to create money is fundamentally influenced by the effective financing demand from the real economy [2] Group 3: Diversification of Financing Channels - The traditional reliance on bank loans for money creation is evolving, with commercial banks increasingly engaging in direct financing through bond purchases, which also generates deposits [3] - The proportion of bank loans in total bank assets remains around 60%, while the share of bonds has increased from approximately 20% at the end of 2019 to about 25% currently [4] Group 4: Structural Changes in Financing - The rapid development of direct financing and changes in the financing structure are leading to a more diversified money creation channel for banks [4] - The PBOC is innovating its base money injection methods and utilizing structural monetary policy tools to guide financial institutions in optimizing credit allocation [4] Group 5: Future Monetary Policy Directions - The development of the financial market and changes in financing structure will have profound impacts on the total money supply and financial regulation [5] - There is a need to continue transforming the monetary policy framework to emphasize price-based regulation and deepen interest rate marketization reforms [5]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the critical role of technology finance in enhancing national competitiveness and supporting economic transformation through innovation [1][2][3] Group 1: Importance of Technology Finance - Technology finance serves as a vital bridge connecting financial capital with technological innovation, increasingly recognized as essential in the current global economic restructuring [2] - The Chinese government prioritizes technology finance as a key area for development, alongside green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance [2] - Financial capital acts as a catalyst for transforming technological innovations into practical applications, thereby enhancing the innovation ecosystem [2][3] Group 2: Achievements and Policies in Technology Finance - Significant progress has been made in technology finance in China, with enhanced policy support and a diversified financial service system for technology enterprises [4] - The People's Bank of China and other departments have issued policies to improve the service capabilities of financial institutions in supporting technology innovation [4] - The total balance of technology loans reached 44.1 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.5%, indicating a strong preference for technology financing [5] Group 3: Challenges in Technology Finance - The current financing structure is predominantly indirect, with banks favoring established companies over startups, which often struggle to meet traditional credit requirements [6] - The vitality of the venture capital market needs enhancement, and the participation of private capital remains low [6] Group 4: Recommendations for Improvement - A unique technology finance system should be developed that aligns with China's financial structure and industrial ecosystem, leveraging the strengths of the banking sector [7] - Banks should enhance their service capabilities for technology innovation by developing products tailored to the needs of high-growth, asset-light enterprises [8] - A mechanism for linking investment and loans should be established to support technology enterprises through various stages of development [8] - Government investment funds should be managed more effectively to support strategic innovation projects and improve post-investment management [9] - Direct financing channels for technology enterprises should be streamlined, encouraging private capital participation and enhancing market transparency [9]

Group 1 - The current monetary policy in China is supportive and relatively loose, with major interest rates at historical lows, and low interest rates are expected to persist for some time [1] - The imbalance in China's financing structure, characterized by high debt and low equity, is a significant issue, and increasing the proportion of direct financing, especially equity financing, has been a key goal of financial reform [2][4] - Recent policies, such as the "New National Nine Articles" and the "1+N" policy framework, aim to enhance the quality of listed companies, encourage dividend returns to investors, and promote the development of public funds [4][6] Group 2 - The capital market plays a crucial role in fostering a virtuous cycle among industry, technology, and capital, supporting both the growth of emerging industries and the transformation of traditional industries [3] - The need to enhance domestic demand, particularly final consumption, is emphasized as a pathway to economic growth, with property income being a significant source of household income [4] - The current challenges in China's financial system include a lack of effective financing demand from the real economy and low lending enthusiasm from banks, which necessitates the development of a diversified financing structure [6][7] Group 3 - The construction of a financial powerhouse is essential for the overall economic strength of the nation, with a strong currency being a key component of this vision [6][7] - The internationalization of the Renminbi is highlighted as a critical aspect of achieving a strong currency, which requires high-level financial openness and the reform of capital market systems [6][7] - The emphasis on institutional openness in the capital market includes aligning domestic regulations with international standards to better support and attract foreign investment [7]