1月10日，在2026年中国首席经济学家论坛年会上，中国首席经济学家论坛理事长、广开首席产业研究院院长连平在分析中国金融结构变化时表示，近年来 直接融资增长提速，增量占比稳步上升。 他提及，2025年前11个月呈现出间接融资增量占比低于直接融资的态势，这一变化在过去数十年间均未出现过。 连平认为，一系列变化本质上反映出中国经济结构的深度调整。过去，房地产、基础设施建设等行业更依赖信贷融资模式，但当前经济结构已发生明显转 变，高新技术产业、战略性新兴产业等快速崛起，产生了大量融资需求，而这类需求更需要直接融资支持。 "未来，财政领域的融资需求仍将对市场形成较大支撑，不会出现明显收缩。"连平认为，中国总体财政状况良好，具备保持适度财政扩张力度的能力，积极 的财政政策将继续保持，且"更加积极"的政策定位会更加明确。 连平提到，从存量来看，间接融资仍占据主导地位，占比超65%，但近年来直接融资增长提速，占比逐步上升，2025年11月末的数据较2019年11月末上升了 4.7个百分点，整体增长速度快于间接融资。 从增量占比来看，近三年来，尤其是2025年之后，直接融资增量占比稳步上升。2025年1~11月间接融资占比降 ...

间接融资存量占比虽仍高于直接融资存量占比，但已有所下降。截至2025年11月末，社融口径间接融资 存量约287.5万亿元，占比65.3%；直接融资存量约140.5万亿元，占比31.9%，较2019年11月上升了4.7个 百分点。 对于背后的原因，连平解释称，居民信贷需求下降、企业信贷需求增长不足、直接融资需求增长、企业 债券发行提速等共同推动了这一转折。 财政扩张持续为直接融资提供稳定需求来源。他表示，更加积极的财政政策发力效果明显，政府债券发 行加快，成为支撑社融增长的主力军。2025年赤字率安排4.0%，财政扩张力度较大，着力扩大内需， 2025年1-11月政府债券净增13.2万亿元，较好带动社融增长。 1月10日，中国首席经济学家论坛理事长、广开首席产业研究院院长连平在2026年中国首席经济学家论 坛年会上表示，中国金融结构正发生历史性转折，间接融资增量占比下降，直接融资增量占比上升。 直接融资是资金最初供给者和最终需求者直接进行交易的一种融资方式，间接融资是资金最初供给者和 最终需求者通过金融中介进行交易的一种融资方式。 他发现，长期由银行信贷主导的间接融资格局正在被直接融资持续改写，已从政策目标转化 ...

关于未来趋势，连平认为方向较为明朗。具体来看，第一，积极的财政政策将持续保持，且"更加积 极"的政策定位会更加明确。未来政府发债融资规模可能会相对稳定，但是企业直接融资会呈现较快的 增长。第二，房地产、基础设施建设等传统领域在2026年之后有望总体保持平稳并逐步改善，但受经济 结构变化影响，这些领域已不可能重现过去那样巨大的融资需求。第三，实体经济中，伴随新质生产力 培育、高新技术产业突飞猛进，将持续产生对资本市场的需求，其中债券市场稳步发展的同时，股票市 场的需求将持续增长。在多重积极因素推动下，2026年及更长时期内，资本市场尤其是股票市场将形成 良好的运行态势，有望持续稳健发展。(完) 连平表示，间接融资、直接融资及企业部门、居民部门融资状况的一系列变化，本质上反映了中国经济 结构的深度调整。过去，房地产、基础设施建设及相关传统行业对信贷需求旺盛，而银行信贷与这些传 统领域、行业的融资匹配度相对较高，这类领域也更依赖信贷融资模式。但当前经济结构已发生明显转 变，高新技术产业、战略性新兴产业、未来产业等快速崛起，产生了大量融资需求，而这类需求更需要 直接融资支持，包括企业上市融资、企业债券发行以及股权投资 ...

直接融资占比逐步上升。 在1月10日举行的2026年中国首席经济学家论坛年会上，中国首席经济学家论坛理事长、广开首席产业 研究院院长连平发表题为《中国金融结构正在发生历史性转折》的主旨演讲时强调，未来几年中国将继 续保持积极的财政政策，"更加积极"的政策将成为常态。 当前，中国金融体系正处于从规模扩张向质量提升的历史性转型阶段。连平指出，长期以来以间接融资 为主的模式已经不能完全满足新兴产业和高新技术发展的资金需求。在传统经济领域，如房地产和基础 设施建设，间接融资仍占据主导地位，但随着经济结构调整和新兴产业发展，直接融资的重要性日益凸 显。 根据连平提供的数据，2025年中国社会融资结构出现显著变化。2025年前8月，增量方面，间接融资占 比首次低于50%，直接融资增速快于间接融资，占比提升至47.4%，显示出直接融资在企业和资本市场 中的地位正在迅速上升。存量方面，尽管间接融资仍超过65%，但直接融资的快速增长趋势清晰可见。 谈及间接融资与直接融资的具体变化，连平指出，居民部门信贷短期保持平稳，但中长期信贷增量明显 下降。企业部门中短期信贷相对稳定，但中长期信贷需求不足，尤其是基建和房地产开发贷款增长放 ...

当前中国金融结构正发生深刻变化，其核心是直接金融与间接金融的发展态势及相互关系的历史性调整。 1月10日，2026年中国首席经济学家论坛年会上，中国首席经济学家论坛理事长、广开首席产业研究院院长连平发表演讲，他表示，中国金融结构正在发生 历史性转折。 近三年来，尤其是2025年之后，金融领域间接金融增量占比持续下降，直接金融增量占比稳步上升（注：间接金融以银行信贷等各类贷款为主，直接金融则 涵盖企业债券、非金融企业境内股票及政府债券等核心构成部分）。从存量来看，间接融资仍占据主导地位，占比超65%，但近年来直接融资增长提速，占 比逐步上升，2025年11月末的数据较2019年11月末上升了4.7个百分点，整体增长速度快于间接融资。 （来源：财闻） 连平认为，上述间接融资、直接融资及企业部门、居民部门融资状况的一系列变化，本质上反映了中国经济结构的深度调整。过去，房地产、基础设施建设 及相关传统行业对信贷需求旺盛，而银行信贷与这些传统领域、行业的融资匹配度相对较高，这类领域也更依赖信贷融资模式。但当前经济结构已发生明显 转变，高新技术产业、战略性新兴产业、未来产业等快速崛起，产生了大量融资需求，而这类需求更需要 ...

（原标题：连平：中国金融结构正在发生历史性转折，直接融资比重持续提升） 人民财讯1月10日电，1月10日，在2026年中国首席经济学家论坛年会上，中国首席经济学家论坛理事 长、广开首席产业研究院院长连平表示，中国金融结构正在发生历史性转折。近三年来，尤其是2025年 之后，金融领域一大值得关注的新变化是，间接金融增量占比持续下降，直接金融增量占比稳步上升。 连平指出，从存量来看，间接融资仍占据主导地位，占比超65%，但近年来直接融资增长提速，占比逐 步上升，2025年11月末的数据较2019年11月末上升了4.7个百分点，整体增长速度快于间接融资。 "未来中国金融结构将进一步优化。近年内，中国金融结构优化将进入关键阶段，直接融资比重有望超 过一半，形成直接融资规模超过间接融资的总体趋势。"连平表示。 连平分析称，直接融资需求保持较快增长，企业直接融资整体表现良好，这得益于多重积极因素推动： 实体经济中，直接融资需求绕开银行信贷相关环节，需求更为实在；同时，直接融资资金配置更具市场 化特征，与新动能的适配性较强，这些均为直接金融发展注入动力。此外，多层次资本市场建设成效显 著，科创板、创业板、北交所及债券市场科 ...

[Table_Main] 新旧动能转换，资本市场如何做好"科 技金融"大文章？ 报告要点 百年未有之大变局，全球经济复苏乏力、逆全球化进程推进、地缘政治冲突不断，世 界正在经历新的动荡变革期。新一轮科技革命和产业革命不仅为经济增长注入新动 能，也在重塑全球秩序和发展格局，科技创新能力成为大国博弈的主要变量。实现高 水平科技自立自强不仅是应对外部风险、落实国家安全战略的必然要求，也是实现经 济高质量发展的必由之路。 高质量发展阶段，新旧动能转换需要强大的资本市场赋能。"新质生产力"概念的提 出为增强经济发展新动能提供了重要指引。资本市场作为金融资源配置的枢纽，在风 险共担和利益共享方面具备独特优势，以新质生产力推动经济转型升级，需要规范、 透明、开放、有活力、有韧性的资本市场赋能。 经济增长模式由"债务驱动型"向"创新驱动型"转换，金融体系也应该由"间接融 资"走向"直接融资"。高质量发展阶段，金融行业更注重"功能性"的发挥和淡化 "规模情结"，面临盈利性下行和盈利模式转换的双重压力。伴随着供给侧改革的深 化、强监管周期开启，金融行业的盈利模式也将发生根本性改变。 资本市场是现代金融体系的核心和基石，强大的资本 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that declining interest rates may become a norm in China's financial operations, and addressing the challenges posed by low interest rates will be a primary task for the financial industry [1][3] Group 2 - The reasons for the decline in interest rates include changes in global population structure, slowing technological progress, and a decrease in potential growth rates, leading to a situation where global savings exceed total investments [3] - The financial system's transformation, characterized by significant financialization of the real economy, has altered the transmission mechanism of monetary policy to the real economy [3] - The historical lessons from the Great Depression have led global monetary authorities to inject substantial liquidity into the financial system and real economy during economic fluctuations, resulting in a persistent decline in nominal interest rates [3] Group 3 - The impact of declining interest rates on the real economy includes reduced financial costs, which positively stimulates economic development [3] - In the financial sector, lower interest rates can lead to a narrowing of interest rate spreads and potential outflows of funds from commercial banks' balance sheets, resulting in changes to the social financing structure [3] - For monetary authorities, the decline in interest rates and the resulting disintermediation may weaken the credit transmission mechanism of monetary policy, increasing the importance of liquidity management [3] Group 4 - Data from the People's Bank of China indicates that the total social financing amount increased from 12.768 trillion yuan in 2015 to 43.772 trillion yuan by October 2025, a growth of 2.42 times over ten years [4] - The scale of indirect financing, including various types of loans, rose from 11.055 trillion yuan to 28.617 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.58 times over the same period [4] - The proportion of indirect financing in total social financing decreased from 86% to 65.3%, a reduction of 21 percentage points, indicating progress towards the goal of reducing indirect financing and increasing direct financing [4] - The conclusion drawn is that disintermediation has become an effective condition for the development of the capital market, although other conditions are also necessary for successful market growth [4]

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for October indicates a stable development in the banking sector, with a need for a more precise and coordinated monetary policy moving forward [2][6]. Monetary Supply and Financing Structure - As of October 2025, the broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.2% year-on-year, maintaining a high growth rate despite a higher base from the previous year [2]. - Narrow money supply (M1) increased by 6.2%, showing a recovery from previous lows, indicating improved business activity and consumer demand [2]. - The M1-M2 spread narrowed to 2%, reflecting a shift towards demand deposits [2]. Total Financing and Loan Growth - The cumulative increase in social financing for the first ten months reached 30.9 trillion yuan, exceeding the previous year's figure by 3.83 trillion yuan [3]. - In October, social financing and RMB loans increased by 815 billion yuan and 220 billion yuan, respectively, both showing a year-on-year decrease [3]. - The weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans was 3.1%, down approximately 40 basis points from the previous year, indicating a decline in overall financing costs [3]. Direct Financing and Policy Tools - Direct financing through corporate bonds and stock financing showed positive growth, with net bond financing up by 1.482 billion yuan and stock financing up by 412 billion yuan in October [4]. - The introduction of new policy financial tools contributed to an increase in entrusted loans by 165.3 billion yuan, indicating a stronger collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies [5]. Economic Demand and Loan Trends - There is a noted decline in household loans, with a reduction of 360.4 billion yuan in October, reflecting weak consumer demand [5]. - Corporate loan growth was primarily supported by bill financing, while long-term loans showed only a slight increase, indicating insufficient effective demand from businesses [5]. Banking Sector Indicators - The net interest margin for commercial banks remained stable at 1.42%, but there are concerns about rising non-performing loans [6]. - The potential for further interest rate cuts by the central bank is being discussed, but significant reductions are unlikely in the short term [6]. Future Monetary Policy Direction - Future monetary policy is expected to focus on precision, coordination, and balance, with an emphasis on directing financial resources to key sectors such as technology and green initiatives [7]. - The central bank aims to maintain reasonable interest rate relationships to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission [7].

Core Insights - The article discusses the shift in China's monetary structure from "credit-driven" to a new model characterized by "debt supplementing loans" and a focus on direct financing, as indicated by recent financial data and central bank reports [1][4][11] Group 1: Monetary Data Overview - As of the end of October, M2 balance reached 335.13 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2%, while the total social financing scale stood at 437.72 trillion yuan, growing by 8.5% year-on-year, indicating a "reasonably loose" monetary condition [1][2] - The balance of domestic and foreign currency loans was 274.54 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of only 6.3%, marking a historical low [2][4] - Government bonds and other debt instruments are increasingly supporting the social financing scale, with government bond net financing reaching 1.195 trillion yuan in the first ten months, up by 3.72 trillion yuan year-on-year [2][4] Group 2: Direct Financing Emphasis - The central bank's report highlights a significant increase in the proportion of direct financing, which rose to 44.4%, while the share of RMB loan increments dropped to 48.3% [4][5] - This shift indicates a policy choice to reduce reliance on credit volume as a primary growth stimulus, aligning with the transition to high-quality economic development [5][11] - The report suggests that banks' roles in both indirect and direct financing are complementary, emphasizing a broader understanding of financial support for the real economy [5][6] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The recent surge in the Shanghai Composite Index to a ten-year high reflects a market buoyed by ample liquidity and low-risk interest rates, with direct financing being positioned as a key driver for capital market activity [7][9] - However, challenges remain, including the need for corporate profitability to align with valuations, governance structures to support higher direct financing, and changes in household asset allocation behavior [9][10] - The article concludes that while a structural shift in monetary and financial frameworks is underway, the transition from credit-driven to capital-driven growth will take time and requires improvements in consumer spending and corporate investment stability [11][12]