"十五五"时期经济社会发展的七大主要目标的第二条，就是要大幅提高科技自立自强水平。在企业已经 成为创新主体的今天，我们的投融资系统支持力度如何，还需要在那些方面做出改进？【问诊2026中国 经济】第五篇，观察者网邀请了北京大学博雅特聘教授、第十四届全国人大代表田轩来为我们分析。 在交流中，田轩认为，间接融资为主导的传统金融模式，已不再适应创新驱动国家战略，并与科技创新 需求之间存在"错位"。以电影《我不是药神》为例，一盒救命药为什么能卖4万块？因为它花了50年才 研发出来。从0-1的创新周期长、耗资巨大，但银行为代表的间接融资无法适应科技创新的长期性。 田轩解释道，间接融资和科技创新的错配，实际体现在以下几条。 第一个是追求"确定性"和"不确定性"的错配。科技创新本质上是对未知路径的探索过程，是一个从"0到 1"、"无中生有"的过程。它和现代化大生产的那种以扩大规模为逻辑的常规性工作是非常不一样的。 第二个错配是短期和长期的错配。银行或者间接融资更多追求短期，而科技创新是长期。创新不是一蹴 而就，是非常漫长的过程。在美国，发明一个创新药有所谓"双十"的说法：即平均要花十年，要投10亿 美金。 田轩表示，"电影 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese financial system is at a historical juncture, with a focus on building a strong financial nation and supporting the real economy through financial reforms during the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1][16]. Group 1: Current State of Real Estate Finance - Real estate finance has entered a structural and deep adjustment phase, moving away from traditional financing models such as residential mortgage loans and developer loans, which previously dominated the market [4][19]. - The current market is characterized by a significant contraction in demand and a decline in transaction volumes, leading to a corresponding drop in mortgage loan scales [4][19]. - Developers are under considerable operational pressure, leading to adjustments in their balance sheets and a reduced willingness to invest and leverage [4][19]. Group 2: Role of the "White List" Mechanism - The "White List" mechanism, established by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the National Financial Regulatory Administration, supports compliant real estate projects and encourages financial institutions to increase financing support [4][20]. - The approved loan scale for "White List" projects has exceeded 7 trillion yuan, significantly replacing traditional developer loans and maintaining the basic loan volume for banks [5][20]. - The "White List" is expected to play a crucial role in the future, as it helps stabilize bank lending to real estate companies [5][20]. Group 3: Future Prospects for Real Estate Finance - The recovery of real estate finance depends on two key factors: the restoration of market transactions and the effective release of demand, which are prerequisites for a rebound in mortgage loans [2][17]. - As transaction volumes improve, the operational conditions of real estate companies are expected to gradually recover, potentially leading to a resurgence in development loans and other financing forms [2][17]. - The future of real estate finance will likely see a shift towards direct financing methods, such as bond issuance and public offerings, while traditional indirect financing methods may not expand significantly [6][21]. Group 4: Policy Adjustments and Market Signals - There is limited room for significant adjustments in nominal interest rates, but policies such as fiscal interest subsidies are being considered to lower financing costs for businesses and homebuyers [8][23]. - The central bank may consider interest rate cuts, but current weak loan demand poses challenges to the effectiveness of such policies [9][24]. - A key signal for market recovery will come from the stabilization and potential increase in housing prices in first-tier cities, which could encourage hesitant buyers to enter the market [12][26].

中国人民银行广东省分行调查统计处二级调研员袁中红表示，社会融资规模的结构变化，主要与广东经 济转向高质量发展过程中伴随的社会经济生产活动结构性调整有关。一个是社会融资规模增长对重资产 投资的依赖性逐步减弱，金融资源更多投向新质生产力；另一个是融资渠道日益多元化，从高度依赖银 行贷款转变为综合运用债券、股票等更丰富的市场化融资方式以适配多样化融资需求。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） 从更长时期看，"十四五"期间，广东社会融资规模累计增量达15.6万亿元，较"十三五"时期多增2万亿 元。据该行测算，"十四五"期间广东社会融资规模存量年均增长9.6%，与经济增长和价格总水平预期目 标基本匹配。 从结构看，"十四五"期间直接融资对社会融资规模的贡献度明显提高。其中，政府和企业债券、非金融 企业境内股票净融资累计增加4.3万亿元，占同期社会融资规模增量的比重为27.4%，较"十三五"时期提 高了3.9个百分点。另一方面，"十四五"期间，广东人民币和外币贷款累计增加9.7万亿元，占同期社会 融资规模增量的比重为62.1%。 中新网广州1月23日电 (记者许青青)据中国人民银行广东省分行23日举行的2025年广东省金融运 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses significant changes in China's financial structure, emphasizing the shift from indirect financing to direct financing, driven by policy initiatives and evolving economic needs [2][4]. Group 1: Financing Trends - The proportion of indirect financing in social financing has decreased, with direct financing's share increasing, marking a historical shift where indirect financing's share fell below 50% for the first time [3]. - As of November 2025, indirect financing accounted for 45.7% while direct financing reached 47.4%, indicating a notable trend where direct financing is outpacing indirect financing [3]. - The growth rate of credit has significantly declined, with the credit balance growth dropping from 12.8% in 2020 to 6.4% in 2025, reflecting a substantial decrease in credit demand [3][4]. Group 2: Direct Financing Growth - Direct financing has shown robust growth, supported by a more market-oriented allocation of funds and the development of multi-tiered capital markets, including platforms like the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [4][5]. - The demand for direct financing is increasingly driven by high-tech industries and emerging sectors, which require various forms of direct financing such as equity investments and corporate bond issuances [4][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The article predicts that active fiscal policies will continue, with a focus on maintaining moderate fiscal expansion to support market stability amid global uncertainties [6]. - Traditional sectors like real estate and infrastructure are expected to stabilize and improve gradually, but their financing needs will not return to previous levels, with credit growth projected to remain below 7% [6][9]. - The capital market is anticipated to develop positively, with a growing demand for stocks driven by high-tech industry listings and unprecedented policy support for investor protection [7][8]. Group 4: Structural Changes and Implications - The ongoing shift towards direct financing is expected to optimize China's financial structure, with direct financing potentially exceeding indirect financing in the near future [8][10]. - This transition is projected to lower financing costs, reduce corporate debt burdens, and enhance the efficiency of capital allocation, ultimately supporting high-quality economic development [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the active development of direct financing methods such as equity and bonds, alongside a steady growth in futures, derivatives, and asset securitization [1] Group 1: Direct Financing Growth - Experts indicate that the rapid growth of direct financing, driven by both policy and market forces, will be a key engine for the transformation and upgrading of the economic structure [2] - The proportion of direct financing is expected to exceed 50%, marking a trend where direct financing scales surpass indirect financing, which will positively impact economic development [2] - Government bond issuance has played a crucial role in stimulating domestic demand, with significant expansions in both central and local government bond issuances over the past two years [3] Group 2: Financing Structure and Industry Demand - The adjustment in economic structure has led to a shift in credit structure, with high-tech industries and strategic emerging industries generating substantial financing needs that require direct financing support [3][4] - The development of multi-tiered capital market platforms like the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market has effectively broadened financing channels for enterprises [4] Group 3: Capital Market Development - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) aims to enhance the inclusiveness and adaptability of capital market systems during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on developing diverse equity financing [5] - The report from Huaxi Securities highlights that developing direct financing is crucial for optimizing financing structures and reducing corporate financing costs, which in turn stimulates market vitality and supports high-quality economic development [5] Group 4: Transition from Indirect to Direct Financing - The financial system in China, historically dominated by banks, is transitioning towards a diversified market-driven model, reflecting a shift in economic growth momentum from traditional sectors to technological innovation and industrial upgrading [6][7] - This transition indicates a greater reliance on market mechanisms for capital allocation, which can more efficiently meet the long-term funding needs of innovative enterprises [7] Group 5: Future Trends in Capital Markets - The demand for capital markets is expected to continue growing, particularly in high-tech industries, with a stable development of the bond market and an increasing demand in the stock market anticipated [7][8] - The central bank's functions now cover the stock market, with various policies aimed at supporting it, suggesting a positive outlook for the capital market, especially the stock market, in the coming years [8]

Core Viewpoint - Weak demand is a prominent issue currently, primarily due to the downward financial cycle, compounded by real estate and debt problems [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - A significant portion of disposable income for households and enterprises is being used to repay debts, which is closely related to China's past reliance on indirect financing structures [3] - Debt repayment primarily goes to banks, and during economic downturns, the weak demand for loans leads to difficulties in forming a closed-loop of funds, which is a key issue for current demand insufficiency [3] Group 2: Financing Structure - There is a common belief that China is transitioning from indirect to direct financing, with an increasing share of direct financing and a declining importance of indirect financing; however, this perspective overlooks the critical role of bank credit in providing liquidity and creating money [4] - Even in economies with developed direct financing, the function of money supply through credit remains indispensable [4] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - Coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is crucial, as credit is endogenous and banks may lack the willingness to lend during economic downturns due to insufficient demand [4] - Fiscal measures such as tax cuts and transfer payments are exogenous and can effectively stimulate the economy, making fiscal policy the most efficient external tool for macroeconomic regulation [4] - Establishing and improving the social security system should be a key vehicle for fiscal investment to inject exogenous money into the economy, as the current fiscal adjustments have limited effects on income distribution due to an inadequate social security system [4] - Long-term efforts to promote common prosperity and reduce income inequality will also require active fiscal policy, with expansionary fiscal measures needing to be supported by monetary policy to lower debt issuance costs [4]

Core Insights - The current financial structure in China is undergoing profound changes, primarily characterized by a historical adjustment in the relationship between direct and indirect financing [2][3] - Direct financing has seen a steady increase in its share, while the proportion of indirect financing has been declining, marking a significant shift not observed in the past several decades [2][3] Group 1: Financial Structure Changes - As of January to November 2025, the share of indirect financing dropped to 45.7%, while direct financing rose to 47.4%, indicating a trend where direct financing outpaces indirect financing [2] - The growth rate of credit demand has significantly decreased, with the credit balance growth rate falling from 12.8% in 2020 to 6.4% currently [2] Group 2: Factors Driving Direct Financing - The demand for direct financing is driven by the need to bypass traditional bank credit channels, reflecting a more market-oriented allocation of funds that aligns well with emerging economic sectors [3] - The development of multi-tiered capital markets, including platforms like the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Beijing Stock Exchange, has effectively promoted the expansion of direct financing [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The future trend indicates a more proactive policy stance, with fiscal financing needs expected to provide substantial support to the market [4] - Traditional sectors such as real estate and infrastructure are anticipated to stabilize and gradually improve after 2026, leading to a recovery in related financing demands [4] - The development of capital markets is crucial, with sustained demand from the real economy for capital market support, alongside unprecedented policy backing for the stock market [4] - The optimization of China's financial structure is entering a critical phase, with direct financing expected to surpass indirect financing, which will have multiple positive implications for economic development [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that China's financial structure is undergoing a historic shift, with a decrease in the proportion of indirect financing and an increase in direct financing [1] - Direct financing, which involves transactions directly between initial fund providers and final demanders, is becoming more prominent compared to indirect financing, which relies on financial intermediaries [1] - In the period from January to November 2025, the cumulative new social financing in China reached 33.4 trillion yuan, with indirect financing accounting for 15.2 trillion yuan (45.7%) and direct financing accounting for 15.8 trillion yuan (47.4%) [1] Group 2 - Although the stock of indirect financing still exceeds that of direct financing, it has decreased, with indirect financing stock at approximately 287.5 trillion yuan (65.3%) and direct financing stock at about 140.5 trillion yuan (31.9%) as of November 2025 [1] - The decline in household credit demand, insufficient growth in corporate credit demand, increased demand for direct financing, and accelerated corporate bond issuance are key factors driving this shift [1] - Continued fiscal expansion is providing a stable source of demand for direct financing, with accelerated government bond issuance becoming a significant driver of social financing growth [2] Group 3 - Strategic emerging industries and future industries are more suited to equity financing, with government-guided funds and industrial investment funds exceeding 12 trillion yuan, significantly boosting direct investment from social capital [4] - The increase in direct financing and decrease in indirect financing reflect a transition in China's economy from high-speed growth to high-quality development, indicating an optimization of the financial structure that will aid in economic transformation and upgrading [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the insights and predictions from the 2026 China Chief Economist Forum, highlighting the historical shift in China's financial structure and the investment opportunities during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to experience low growth as a norm by 2025, with instability arising more from structural issues than cyclical ones [2][3] - China aims to provide stability to the world economy through its own stable development, addressing external uncertainties with internal certainties [3] Group 2: Financial Structure Changes - China's financial structure is undergoing a historic transformation, with a steady increase in the proportion of direct financing compared to indirect financing, which has seen a decline [4][5] - As of November 2025, the proportion of direct financing increased by 4.7 percentage points compared to November 2019, indicating a faster growth rate than indirect financing [4] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is seen as a critical period for China to embrace a new wave of technological revolution, particularly in renewable energy and artificial intelligence [10] - Investment opportunities are identified in three main areas: AI application, large finance, and cyclical sectors, with a focus on companies that integrate AI into their business models [13] - The manufacturing sector is expected to benefit from the completion of the "Made in China 2025" initiative, with related companies entering a profit release phase [14] Group 4: Policy and Market Dynamics - The Chinese stock market is anticipated to recover steadily, supported by a surge of high-tech companies and unprecedented policy support from regulatory bodies [6][7] - The real estate market is undergoing significant changes, with a shift away from previous high-demand patterns, leading to a more stable market environment [7]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article is that China's financial structure is undergoing significant changes, with a notable shift towards direct financing, which is expected to continue growing and eventually surpass indirect financing in the coming years [1][4][6]. Group 1: Financial Structure Changes - Direct financing has been accelerating, with its incremental share steadily increasing, contrasting with the historical dominance of indirect financing [1][4]. - As of November 2025, the share of indirect financing dropped to 45.7%, while direct financing rose to 47.4%, marking a significant shift not seen in decades [4][6]. - The traditional reliance on bank credit for sectors like real estate and infrastructure is diminishing, as high-tech and strategic emerging industries are rapidly rising and require more direct financing support [1][4][6]. Group 2: Future Financing Landscape - The demand for financing in the fiscal sector is expected to remain strong, supporting market stability without significant contraction [5]. - Traditional sectors like real estate and infrastructure may see a slight rebound in financing needs, but they will not return to the previous high growth rates of 12% to 13% [5]. - The capital market is anticipated to develop positively, with a growing demand for stocks driven by high-tech industry listings and increased policy support [6]. Group 3: Implications of Direct Financing Growth - The ongoing optimization of China's financial structure is entering a critical phase, with direct financing likely to exceed 50% of the total financing landscape [6]. - This trend is expected to provide stable long-term funding, reduce financing costs, alleviate corporate debt pressure, and enhance capital allocation efficiency [6]. - The growth of direct financing may also address long-standing theoretical concerns regarding debt and leverage, potentially alleviating issues related to high M2 growth rates [6].