今年三月，美国财政部公布了一项震惊全球的数据：中国单月减持美债1829亿美元，总持仓规模降至7307亿，创下2009年以来最低。 不仅如此，中国已连续十个月增持黄金，稳步提升国家储备中的"硬通货"比例。 一抛一买，看似寻常调仓，实则意味深长。 这是一个信号，也是一种态度。 01 美元体系，正在出现裂缝。 金融市场，永远充满意外。 但真正的转折，往往早有伏笔。 中国的减持，不是起点，更不是终点。 而是一场正在发生的、静默的金融秩序重构。 02 有人质疑：美债市场深度好、流动性强，仍是全球最主流的安全资产。如此大幅度减持，是否不理智？ 但问题恰恰在于——当"安全"变得不再安全，策略就必须调整。 俄乌冲突中，俄罗斯近半数外汇储备被西方冻结，给所有新兴国家上了一课： 资产放在别人体系里，关键时刻可能只是一行数字。 尤其当这些资产，还能被"武器化"。 黄金之所以被重新青睐，不是因为它多高效，而是因为它超越政治。 它不依赖任何国家的信用，不惧怕任何形式的冻结。 它是一种"最后的支付手段"，沉默，但极具力量。 中国的举动，不是孤立事件，而是全球"去风险化"浪潮中的关键一步。 请注意，这不是"去美元化"，而是"去风险化"。 ...

美联储降息，究竟是拯救市场的灵丹妙药，还是让市场陷入深渊的毒药？全球资本市场此刻都屏住了呼 吸，静静等待着美联储这一无形的指挥棒，究竟会如何肆意挥洒其"魔力"。那么，为何此次美联储的降 息举措，会引发资本市场前所未有的高度关注呢？仅仅25个基点和50个基点之间的差异，不过0.25%， 真的值得引发如此巨大的争议吗？今天，就让我们一次性深入剖析这场被称作史上最危险的降息周期。 此次降息已然如疾风骤雨般袭来，它究竟与以往的降息周期有何本质区别？它的降临，又会怎样影响我 们每一个人的工作、生活以及钱包里的财富呢？ 我们国家刚刚圆满结束九三阅兵，展现出了与时俱进的发展速度和稳如泰山的社会状态，这恐怕是资本 市场难以抗拒的魅力所在。因此，我们有理由相信，在降息周期的影响下，我们的股市、楼市以及实体 经济都有望迎来复苏的曙光。然而，这里不得不提的是，此次股市将如何演绎这场大戏呢？这确实是一 个未知数。毕竟，早在降息预期之前，A股就已经冲高至3888点，市场早已提前消化了降息可能带来的 利好。因此，当真降息来临之时，市场或许会出现"见光死"的尴尬局面，利好反而可能变成利空。毕 竟，在历史上，这样的戏码已经不止一次地上演过。 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the cryptocurrency market, specifically Bitcoin and stablecoins, and their relationship with traditional assets like gold. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Comparison between Bitcoin and Gold**: - Both Bitcoin and gold share attributes such as scarcity, borderless nature, and decentralization, serving as hedges against risks in the international payment system. However, Bitcoin exhibits superior growth potential and payment convenience compared to gold, albeit facing stricter regulations [1][2][8]. 2. **Pricing Logic Sensitivity**: - The pricing of both Bitcoin and gold is sensitive to liquidity conditions. They tend to appreciate relative to fiat currencies during global liquidity expansion and depreciate during liquidity tightening. Both assets also hedge against the instability of sovereign currencies [1][9]. 3. **Market Trends and Drivers**: - From 2009 to 2021, the price trends of Bitcoin and gold were primarily driven by international liquidity expansion. Since 2022, the decoupling of the international payment system has become a more significant driver [1][10]. 4. **Bitcoin's Market Cycles**: - Bitcoin has experienced several bull and bear cycles since its inception in 2009, with notable peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021, driven by various factors including regulatory changes and market sentiment [3][4]. 5. **Stablecoin Development**: - The growth of stablecoins is influenced by policies from the U.S. and Hong Kong, aimed at promoting their expansion to support the U.S. dollar and short-term U.S. debt. The underlying logic is to address the signs of decoupling in the dollar's international payment system [1][6][19]. 6. **Trust Consensus in Stablecoins**: - The stability of stablecoins relies on trust consensus, where holders believe they can redeem their holdings for equivalent fiat currency or collateral. This requires high liquidity in reserve assets and regular disclosure of asset reserves [14][18]. 7. **Regulatory Framework**: - The U.S. and Hong Kong are establishing regulatory frameworks to enhance trust in stablecoins by defining qualified digital currencies, standardizing reserve asset lists, and mandating regular disclosures [18]. 8. **Impact of Trade Wars**: - Bitcoin and gold have shown strong performance since the trade wars began, attributed to their roles as alternative currencies that provide a hedge against the risks associated with sovereign currency credit [2][11]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Volatility and Risk Compensation**: - Bitcoin's volatility is significantly higher than gold's, but this does not negate its status as a quality hedge asset. Its smaller market size and high growth potential contribute to this volatility [11]. 2. **Future of Stablecoins**: - The future trajectory of stablecoins is closely tied to the health of the U.S. dollar and U.S. debt. The development of stablecoins is seen as a potential remedy for the weakening dollar and U.S. debt market [12][19]. 3. **Types of Stablecoins**: - Stablecoins can be categorized into three types: fiat-collateralized, crypto-collateralized, and algorithmic stablecoins, each with different mechanisms for maintaining stability [13][17]. 4. **Examples of Trust Issues**: - Historical examples illustrate the importance of trust in stablecoins, such as USDT's initial instability and subsequent regulatory compliance, and USDC's recovery from a temporary de-pegging event [15][16]. 5. **Potential for Dollar Support**: - Stablecoins are viewed as a bridge between fiat and digital currencies, with the potential to support the U.S. dollar and U.S. debt, especially as they are predominantly pegged to the dollar [19].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities suggests that both gold and Bitcoin are preferred assets in the context of financial order reconstruction and risk aversion scenarios, with Bitcoin potentially outperforming gold in certain market conditions [1][10]. Group 1: Market Context and Trends - Recent concerns regarding sovereign debt, particularly in Japan and the U.S., highlight the risks associated with national credit, while gold and Bitcoin have shown stronger performance compared to other assets since the trade war began [2]. - The historical price movements of Bitcoin and gold reveal their commonalities and differences, providing insights into their current allocation value and future trends [2]. Group 2: Historical Performance of Bitcoin - Bitcoin has experienced two distinct eras since its inception in 2009, characterized by four market cycles, with the current phase being the fourth bull market [3]. - The first era (2009-2018) was marked by limited growth, while the second era (2019-present) has seen widespread adoption and acceptance of Bitcoin as a payment method [3]. Group 3: Historical Performance of Gold - Gold has undergone three bull markets and one bear market since 2009, with a general upward trend in prices [4]. - The first bull market (2009-2011) saw gold prices rise from $900 to nearly $1900 per ounce, while the second bear market (2012-2015) saw prices drop from $1895 to $1049.4 per ounce, a total decline of 44.6% [4]. Group 4: Commonalities and Differences between Bitcoin and Gold - Both Bitcoin and gold share characteristics of scarcity and serve as borderless currencies, which have driven their price trends since 2009 [5][6]. - The supply of gold is limited by annual mining output, while Bitcoin's supply is capped and undergoes halving every four years [6]. Group 5: Pricing Logic and Sensitivity - The value of both assets is sensitive to global liquidity conditions, with their relative value increasing during periods of liquidity expansion and decreasing during contractions [7]. - Bitcoin and gold serve as hedges against instability in sovereign currencies, with their decentralized nature allowing them to mitigate the effects of sovereign credit risks [7]. Group 6: Future Outlook for Bitcoin and Gold - Both gold and Bitcoin are expected to perform well in scenarios of financial order reconstruction, with Bitcoin's growth potential suggesting a higher price ceiling compared to gold [10][15]. - The ongoing trade tensions and the restructuring of global financial markets may lead to an expansion in the market value of both gold and Bitcoin [14].