Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the cryptocurrency market, specifically Bitcoin and stablecoins, and their relationship with traditional assets like gold. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Comparison between Bitcoin and Gold**: - Both Bitcoin and gold share attributes such as scarcity, borderless nature, and decentralization, serving as hedges against risks in the international payment system. However, Bitcoin exhibits superior growth potential and payment convenience compared to gold, albeit facing stricter regulations [1][2][8]. 2. **Pricing Logic Sensitivity**: - The pricing of both Bitcoin and gold is sensitive to liquidity conditions. They tend to appreciate relative to fiat currencies during global liquidity expansion and depreciate during liquidity tightening. Both assets also hedge against the instability of sovereign currencies [1][9]. 3. **Market Trends and Drivers**: - From 2009 to 2021, the price trends of Bitcoin and gold were primarily driven by international liquidity expansion. Since 2022, the decoupling of the international payment system has become a more significant driver [1][10]. 4. **Bitcoin's Market Cycles**: - Bitcoin has experienced several bull and bear cycles since its inception in 2009, with notable peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021, driven by various factors including regulatory changes and market sentiment [3][4]. 5. **Stablecoin Development**: - The growth of stablecoins is influenced by policies from the U.S. and Hong Kong, aimed at promoting their expansion to support the U.S. dollar and short-term U.S. debt. The underlying logic is to address the signs of decoupling in the dollar's international payment system [1][6][19]. 6. **Trust Consensus in Stablecoins**: - The stability of stablecoins relies on trust consensus, where holders believe they can redeem their holdings for equivalent fiat currency or collateral. This requires high liquidity in reserve assets and regular disclosure of asset reserves [14][18]. 7. **Regulatory Framework**: - The U.S. and Hong Kong are establishing regulatory frameworks to enhance trust in stablecoins by defining qualified digital currencies, standardizing reserve asset lists, and mandating regular disclosures [18]. 8. **Impact of Trade Wars**: - Bitcoin and gold have shown strong performance since the trade wars began, attributed to their roles as alternative currencies that provide a hedge against the risks associated with sovereign currency credit [2][11]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Volatility and Risk Compensation**: - Bitcoin's volatility is significantly higher than gold's, but this does not negate its status as a quality hedge asset. Its smaller market size and high growth potential contribute to this volatility [11]. 2. **Future of Stablecoins**: - The future trajectory of stablecoins is closely tied to the health of the U.S. dollar and U.S. debt. The development of stablecoins is seen as a potential remedy for the weakening dollar and U.S. debt market [12][19]. 3. **Types of Stablecoins**: - Stablecoins can be categorized into three types: fiat-collateralized, crypto-collateralized, and algorithmic stablecoins, each with different mechanisms for maintaining stability [13][17]. 4. **Examples of Trust Issues**: - Historical examples illustrate the importance of trust in stablecoins, such as USDT's initial instability and subsequent regulatory compliance, and USDC's recovery from a temporary de-pegging event [15][16]. 5. **Potential for Dollar Support**: - Stablecoins are viewed as a bridge between fiat and digital currencies, with the potential to support the U.S. dollar and U.S. debt, especially as they are predominantly pegged to the dollar [19].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities suggests that both gold and Bitcoin are preferred assets in the context of financial order reconstruction and risk aversion scenarios, with Bitcoin potentially outperforming gold in certain market conditions [1][10]. Group 1: Market Context and Trends - Recent concerns regarding sovereign debt, particularly in Japan and the U.S., highlight the risks associated with national credit, while gold and Bitcoin have shown stronger performance compared to other assets since the trade war began [2]. - The historical price movements of Bitcoin and gold reveal their commonalities and differences, providing insights into their current allocation value and future trends [2]. Group 2: Historical Performance of Bitcoin - Bitcoin has experienced two distinct eras since its inception in 2009, characterized by four market cycles, with the current phase being the fourth bull market [3]. - The first era (2009-2018) was marked by limited growth, while the second era (2019-present) has seen widespread adoption and acceptance of Bitcoin as a payment method [3]. Group 3: Historical Performance of Gold - Gold has undergone three bull markets and one bear market since 2009, with a general upward trend in prices [4]. - The first bull market (2009-2011) saw gold prices rise from $900 to nearly $1900 per ounce, while the second bear market (2012-2015) saw prices drop from $1895 to $1049.4 per ounce, a total decline of 44.6% [4]. Group 4: Commonalities and Differences between Bitcoin and Gold - Both Bitcoin and gold share characteristics of scarcity and serve as borderless currencies, which have driven their price trends since 2009 [5][6]. - The supply of gold is limited by annual mining output, while Bitcoin's supply is capped and undergoes halving every four years [6]. Group 5: Pricing Logic and Sensitivity - The value of both assets is sensitive to global liquidity conditions, with their relative value increasing during periods of liquidity expansion and decreasing during contractions [7]. - Bitcoin and gold serve as hedges against instability in sovereign currencies, with their decentralized nature allowing them to mitigate the effects of sovereign credit risks [7]. Group 6: Future Outlook for Bitcoin and Gold - Both gold and Bitcoin are expected to perform well in scenarios of financial order reconstruction, with Bitcoin's growth potential suggesting a higher price ceiling compared to gold [10][15]. - The ongoing trade tensions and the restructuring of global financial markets may lead to an expansion in the market value of both gold and Bitcoin [14].