6月份的时候，中国买家买入了3万吨阿根廷豆粕的消息，惊动了市场。 豆粕是大豆提取豆油以后的副产品，但我们过去由于种种原因，全力保种三大主粮，而大豆呢则主要依 赖进口。 但后来生活水平提高了，家家都吃上了猪肉，于是对豆粕的消费也就激增，大豆的进口量也就越来越 高。 现在平均每年的进口量几乎近亿吨。 大豆这个东西不像玉米和小麦，在全球广泛种植，大豆的种植相对比较集中，主要就在美洲地区，就是 美国和南美的巴西、阿根廷等，所以一直以来，这三个国家也成为我国进口大豆的主要来源。 南美大豆的出口季节主要集中在 5月到9月，而美豆的出口旺季则是10月到次年2月，就形成了一个完美 衔接。 但是今年出事了。 原因是这是自2019年中阿签订协议，准许阿根廷大豆及豆粕入华以后中国的首笔订单。 也就是说，协议生效以后，阿根廷豆粕并没有马上对华出口，但在6年以后，它来了。 为啥这时候来了呢？ 当然是有原因的。 所以这足以让美豆着急了。 一是阿根廷豆粕出口潜力巨大。 中美贸易战再次打响，虽然上半年不是美豆出口旺季，但是中美贸易关系直接关系着下半年或者说是四 季度大豆的供应。 当前中美仍处于暂停关税状态，也就是说，后续美豆能否正常供应中国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities suggests that both gold and Bitcoin are preferred assets in the context of financial order reconstruction and risk aversion scenarios, with Bitcoin potentially outperforming gold in certain market conditions [1][10]. Group 1: Market Context and Trends - Recent concerns regarding sovereign debt, particularly in Japan and the U.S., highlight the risks associated with national credit, while gold and Bitcoin have shown stronger performance compared to other assets since the trade war began [2]. - The historical price movements of Bitcoin and gold reveal their commonalities and differences, providing insights into their current allocation value and future trends [2]. Group 2: Historical Performance of Bitcoin - Bitcoin has experienced two distinct eras since its inception in 2009, characterized by four market cycles, with the current phase being the fourth bull market [3]. - The first era (2009-2018) was marked by limited growth, while the second era (2019-present) has seen widespread adoption and acceptance of Bitcoin as a payment method [3]. Group 3: Historical Performance of Gold - Gold has undergone three bull markets and one bear market since 2009, with a general upward trend in prices [4]. - The first bull market (2009-2011) saw gold prices rise from $900 to nearly $1900 per ounce, while the second bear market (2012-2015) saw prices drop from $1895 to $1049.4 per ounce, a total decline of 44.6% [4]. Group 4: Commonalities and Differences between Bitcoin and Gold - Both Bitcoin and gold share characteristics of scarcity and serve as borderless currencies, which have driven their price trends since 2009 [5][6]. - The supply of gold is limited by annual mining output, while Bitcoin's supply is capped and undergoes halving every four years [6]. Group 5: Pricing Logic and Sensitivity - The value of both assets is sensitive to global liquidity conditions, with their relative value increasing during periods of liquidity expansion and decreasing during contractions [7]. - Bitcoin and gold serve as hedges against instability in sovereign currencies, with their decentralized nature allowing them to mitigate the effects of sovereign credit risks [7]. Group 6: Future Outlook for Bitcoin and Gold - Both gold and Bitcoin are expected to perform well in scenarios of financial order reconstruction, with Bitcoin's growth potential suggesting a higher price ceiling compared to gold [10][15]. - The ongoing trade tensions and the restructuring of global financial markets may lead to an expansion in the market value of both gold and Bitcoin [14].

Group 1 - The article highlights the significant shift in trade dynamics between the US and China, illustrated by American LPG carriers rerouting to Southeast Asia instead of China due to escalating tariff conflicts [1][3] - Despite a temporary agreement reached in mid-May to gradually dismantle tariffs, Chinese companies have already established new partnerships with suppliers from Canada and the Middle East, indicating a long-term shift away from US goods [3][12] - The retention of a 20% "fentanyl tariff" by the Trump administration has exacerbated distrust among American businesses, leading to concerns about the stability of future trade relations [7][11] Group 2 - The article discusses the implications of the trade agreement signed in Geneva in May 2025, which aims to eliminate 95% of tariffs on goods, but also notes the hidden challenges posed by the retained tariffs [8][9] - The article points out that American companies are facing significant losses due to reduced exports to China, with soybean exports dropping by 16.3% [16] - Chinese companies are actively restructuring their global supply chains, reducing reliance on US suppliers, as seen in the shift towards sourcing from countries like Russia, Brazil, and the Middle East [12][17] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the resilience of Chinese companies in the lithium battery sector, with exports to the US reaching a record high of $15.315 billion, despite US sanctions [19] - It highlights the challenges faced by American companies in finding alternatives to Chinese manufacturing, as many industries remain heavily dependent on China's production capabilities [22][24] - The article concludes with the notion that the ongoing trade war may lead to significant economic repercussions for the US, with potential losses in various sectors, including agriculture and semiconductors [24][28]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in supply chain dynamics due to escalating trade tensions, with retailers like Luke Therrien opting to bypass American middlemen and establish direct connections with Chinese suppliers, aiming for a more sustainable and cost-effective supply chain [1][3]. Group 1: Supply Chain Changes - Retailers are increasingly seeking direct relationships with Chinese suppliers to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs and trade tensions [1][3]. - The shift to direct sourcing may lead to longer procurement times and logistical challenges, but it is seen as beneficial in the long run from a pricing perspective [1][3]. Group 2: Impact of U.S. Trade Policies - U.S. tariffs and unpredictable trade policies have created chaos in the American market, leading to confusion among exporters regarding customs and tax obligations [3][4]. - Exporters who previously relied heavily on the U.S. market are now considering diversifying their markets due to the instability caused by U.S. trade policies [4][5]. Group 3: Currency and Economic Confidence - The dominance of the U.S. dollar as a trade currency remains significant, providing exporters with predictable payment methods, despite increasing risks [4][5]. - Recent economic turmoil and criticism of U.S. trade policies have shaken confidence in the dollar, with notable figures like Warren Buffett expressing concerns about investing in a currency perceived as unstable [5][6]. Group 4: China’s Response to Trade Tensions - China has taken a firm stance against U.S. unilateral tariff measures, emphasizing its commitment to defending its economic interests while remaining open to dialogue [6]. - The Chinese government has indicated a willingness to engage in discussions with the U.S. regarding tariff adjustments, reflecting a strategic approach to international trade relations [6].

Group 1 - Mark Mobius holds 95% of his fund in cash, indicating a cautious approach due to trade uncertainties that may last up to six months [1] - Mobius believes that emerging markets like India will perform well once uncertainties stabilize, but he emphasizes the need to wait for clearer conditions [1] - A recent Bank of America survey shows that investor sentiment regarding the economic outlook is at its lowest in 30 years, reflecting increased risk due to tariff tensions [1] Group 2 - Mobius manages approximately $300 million in assets and expects India to benefit from the U.S. seeking to reshape global supply chains away from reliance on China [3] - He is optimistic about Indian stocks related to software and electronic hardware, while also holding a small amount of S&P 500 index funds to track the market [3] - Mobius anticipates that the S&P 500 index will recover by the end of the year as investor confidence in U.S. investments improves [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for companies in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area to build a more resilient and collaborative international supply chain system in response to the complexities of global supply chain restructuring and rising protectionism [1][2] - The meeting highlighted structural issues such as insufficient industry chain collaboration, logistics and customs efficiency, and the urgent need to enhance companies' "soft capabilities" as they accelerate their international expansion [1][2] - Companies are urged to transition from a single-point breakthrough strategy to a systematic approach for international expansion, focusing on resilience, flexibility, and collaboration within their supply chains [1][2] Group 2 - The current global economic turmoil and geopolitical conflicts are driving regional and localized adjustments in international supply chains, presenting greater uncertainties and complexities for companies in the Greater Bay Area [2] - Companies are facing new trade barriers and regulatory challenges, necessitating the establishment of a composite capability that integrates technology, regulations, and branding to support the stability of their overseas supply chains [2] - The restructuring of supply chains requires companies to not only address logistics and market development but also to rebuild their entire supply chain system to possess cross-cycle and cross-market collaborative capabilities [2] Group 3 - The case of a PCB manufacturing company illustrates the need for a flexible model of "local manufacturing + overseas delivery," which aims to diversify production bases and mitigate external risks [3] - The Greater Bay Area cities are attempting to create "stable chain" hubs through institutional openness, with Zhuhai making significant strides in cross-border logistics system development [3][4] - The construction of new trade channels, such as the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge and the upcoming Huangmaohai Cross-Sea Channel, is expected to enhance trade efficiency and stability in the global supply chain [3][4] Group 4 - The Hengqin Guangdong-Macao Deep Cooperation Zone is implementing a "line management" model that offers tax incentives and facilitates cross-border e-commerce and international trade, thereby reducing tax barriers for companies [4] - Hong Kong is positioned as a "super connector" for Greater Bay Area companies, leveraging its global resource network and regulatory experience to assist in international market expansion [5] - Macau aims to strengthen its role as a hub for Portuguese-speaking countries, utilizing its cultural and legal connections to build a cross-border supply chain network [6] Group 5 - The 2024 Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Exhibition Industry Development Report indicates a 1.32% year-on-year increase in exhibition events, with total area surpassing 31 million square meters, showcasing the region's potential in trade platforms and temporary industrial clusters [6] - Bay Area exhibitions are evolving into critical points for supply chain convergence and initial economic activities, enhancing companies' visibility and negotiation power in international markets [6]