金瑞期货：短期内贵金属暂缺趋势性行情的驱动 华泰期货：黄金维持偏震荡市场静候议息会议 Kitco Metals：贸易局势进展提振美元打压金价但黄金仍表现出潜在弹性 瑞士宝盛银行：短期金价的盘整仍将延续 【机构观点分析】 华泰期货表示，目前黄金价格仍然维持偏震荡格局，由于此前市场风险情绪有所滋生，致使金银比价出 现回归。本周将会面临美联储议息会议，当下市场对于美联储降息的计价相对有限，因此倘若美联储意 外降息，则对于行情影响或将较大。同时美联储主席鲍威尔与总统特朗普冲突似有加剧之态，若鲍威尔 果真被免职，则避险需求仍将加大，届时将再度利好黄金价格，目前操作上黄金仍然建议以逢低买入套 保为主。 Kitco Metals分析师Gary Wagner在最新点评文章中写道，近期黄金市场波动的主要催化剂来自于贸易领 域。国际贸易谈判的最新进展推动美元走强并削弱对传统避险资产的需求，黄金价格震荡下挫。同时， 美元的强势进一步受到货币政策预期的支撑，因为美联储即将召开的会议显示降息的可能性很小。但要 注意到的是，尽管隔夜美元升值了超1%，但金价仅下跌0.74%左右，整体走势展现出一些潜在的弹性。 这种差异表明，尽管美元走强带 ...

Group 1 - Silver prices have been on the rise since July, becoming a focal point in the global commodity market, with a significant increase of 18% in Q1 2025, reaching $34 per ounce [1] - As of July, silver prices peaked at over $39 per ounce, marking a 14-year high, with an annual increase exceeding 35%, outpacing gold's performance [1] - The rise in silver prices is attributed to a combination of safe-haven demand and industrial needs, with geopolitical risks and trade tensions driving investment towards silver as a "gold alternative" [1] Group 2 - Industrial demand is a major factor in the rising silver prices, with a projected increase of 4% in industrial demand for 2024, reaching 680.5 million ounces, driven by green economy applications [2] - Historically, silver has been recognized as a valuable element, used as currency since 700 BC, and has maintained its status as a store of value across various cultures [2] - Silver's intrinsic value remains significant, securing its place in diverse investment portfolios [2] Group 3 - Silver and gold, both precious metals, differ in their attributes; gold has stronger financial properties while silver has greater commodity attributes [3] - Gold's demand is primarily from physical consumption and financial investment, whereas silver's price is more influenced by industrial demand and supply factors [3] - Silver's market is more susceptible to volatility due to its smaller market size and liquidity compared to gold, leading to stronger speculative tendencies [3]

Group 1: Silver Price Dynamics - Silver prices have seen a significant increase, with a year-to-date rise of 30.85%, surpassing gold's increase of 26.91% [1] - On July 14, the London silver spot price reached $39 per ounce, marking a nearly 13-year high since September 2011 [1] Group 2: Short-term Drivers of Silver Price Increase - The decline in the US dollar index since June 5 has positively impacted silver's monetary attributes [3] - Increased risk appetite due to better-than-expected job growth in the US has favored silver over gold, leading to a decrease in the gold-silver ratio [3] - Silver's smaller trading volume compared to gold makes it more susceptible to capital flows, with daily trading volume for silver at $119.5 billion, only 10.7% of gold's $1,119.9 billion [3] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Global silver supply is projected to reach approximately 31,574 tons in 2024, a 1.7% increase year-on-year [5] - The supply of silver is highly concentrated, with the top five producing countries (Mexico, China, Peru, Bolivia, and Chile) accounting for a significant portion of global output [5] - The supply of primary silver mines is characterized by rigidity due to declining ore grades and frequent disruptions [8][10] Group 4: Demand Trends - Global silver demand has entered a structural expansion phase, maintaining a demand level above 34,000 tons since 2021, although a slight decline of 2.9% is expected in 2024 [15] - Industrial demand for silver has been the primary driver, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.4% from 2019 to 2024 [16] - The electronics sector, particularly the photovoltaic industry, is a major contributor to silver demand, with expectations of increased consumption due to the transition to N-type solar cells [21][23] Group 5: Company Insights - China Silver Group (00815) is a key player in the silver market, with a comprehensive business model covering silver manufacturing and trading, although it reported a 20.97% decline in revenue in 2024 [28] - Zijin Mining (02899), a global mining giant, benefits from rising silver prices as silver is a byproduct of its copper and gold mining operations, showing strong financial performance in early 2025 [28] - Jiangxi Copper (00358) is the largest copper producer in China, with a stable silver output as a byproduct, which could provide additional revenue if silver prices continue to rise [29]