智通财经11月21日讯（记者 刘梦然 刘建）钠电池商业化进程不断加速，正从示范应用向规模化商业落 地迈进，各大头部企业亦争相"押注"布局。有业内人士认为，"2026年是钠离子电池真正商业化，亦是 规模化应用的起点。" 在昨日举行的高工锂电年会上，容百科技（688005.SH）董事长白厚善表示，电池的发展趋势是非稀 有、非关键和廉价，预计到2035年磷酸铁锂电池和钠电池的比例是4:6，届时，磷酸铁锂需求量将达 1500万吨，钠电池正极材料的需求量将达2000万吨。 智通财经记者注意到，这是首次有业内人士对未来磷酸铁锂电池和钠电池市占率比例做出预测。事实 上，在此前的第四届钠离子电池产业链与标准发展论坛上，便有多位与会人士认为，钠离子电池作为极 具潜力的新兴技术正逐步展现头角。其产品性能和质量不断提升，应用领域逐步拓展，在储能、低速电 动车、通信基站备用电源等领域展现出良好的应用场景。 但需要注意的是，钠电池的能量密度水平目前还低于商用磷酸铁锂锂电池和三元锂电池，且在商业化初 期，其成本仍高于锂电池，若想达到前述预测市占率，产业仍需突破多重问题。对此，多位业内人士认 为，钠电池与锂电池并非"简单替代"和"此消彼长 ...

Core Viewpoint - The future of sodium-ion batteries is not about competing with lithium batteries but rather focusing on areas where lithium batteries struggle, presenting significant opportunities for development [1][2]. Industry Insights - Recent government policies have highlighted sodium-ion batteries, with a focus on establishing a high-quality battery storage system that includes sodium batteries as a key component [2]. - The sodium-ion battery industry is transitioning from sample validation to commercial application, with expectations for significant cost reductions and lifecycle savings for users by 2026 [3]. - The market anticipates that sodium batteries will become a crucial supplement to lithium batteries, particularly in fixed energy storage applications, due to their resource abundance and lower costs [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The sodium battery industry is experiencing rapid expansion across the supply chain, with expectations that the cost difference between lithium iron phosphate batteries and sodium batteries will reach a critical turning point next year [4]. - There is a belief that sodium battery costs could potentially decrease by half within the next two to three years, enabling sustainable commercial development [4]. Application Focus - Sodium batteries are seen as a vital direction for green energy, with strengths in high power, low-temperature performance, safety, and cost-effectiveness, making them suitable for applications such as hybrid vehicles, uninterruptible power supplies (UPS), and frequency regulation storage [6].