1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The rebound space of the black sector is limited, and attention should be paid to the spot-futures positive arbitrage opportunities. The coal and coke sectors are expected to fluctuate, and short-term trading is recommended for iron ore. [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - Last week, the black sector strengthened collectively, with coking coal leading the rise. In terms of index涨跌幅度, the strength relationship among varieties was coking coal > coke > iron ore > rebar > hot-rolled coil. [4] 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison - The overall atmosphere in the futures market was warm, with commodity prices generally rising, and the non-ferrous sector being the strongest. [4] 03 Spot Prices - Spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend, and iron ore had the largest increase. [13] 04 Profit and Valuation - Steel mill profitability remained stable, and the valuation of rebar futures was neutral. [14] 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Last week, steel production increased, demand decreased, and inventories began to accumulate, showing a seasonal weakening in the supply-demand pattern. [4][5] 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Port iron ore inventories continued to increase significantly, while steel mill iron ore inventories increased slightly. Steel mill restocking before the Spring Festival was not obvious. Iron ore shipments declined from the high level, but arrivals were still at a high level. With the resumption of steel mill production in January, pig iron production rebounded slightly from the low level, and it was expected to be in a pattern of inventory accumulation in the short term. [5] 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Last week, raw coal production rebounded, and coking coal inventories continued to accumulate. However, the news of coal mine capacity reduction boosted the market, and the near-month coking coal strengthened. [5] 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production increased slightly month-on-month, and inventories changed little. The spot price of coke remained stable last week, and the profit of coking plants was already low, with limited room for further compression. However, the premium of coke futures was already large. [5] 09 Variety Spreads - The mill's disk profit deteriorated, and the rebar-iron ore price ratio declined. [32] 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - There were various domestic and international policies, news, and events, including geopolitical events, production plans of OPEC+, regulatory adjustments of the futures exchange, and industry regulations. The EU carbon tariff was officially implemented at the beginning of 2026, which would significantly increase the cost of steel exports to the EU. [37]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 18, the coke futures market sentiment turned from weak to strong, and the main contract rebounded from a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the downstream restocking rhythm [5][34]. - On December 18, the coking coal futures market sentiment also turned from weak to strong, and the main contract rebounded from a low level. It is advisable to closely monitor whether there are new supply - favorable policies in the coal industry [5][34]. Summary of Each Section Industry News - China has re - implemented export license management for steel products after 16 years, aiming to strengthen monitoring, statistics, and analysis of steel product exports and promote high - quality development of the steel industry [7]. - On December 18, the auction prices of coking coal in the Linfen market mainly declined. The cumulative listed volume was 461,000 tons, with a non - successful bid rate of about 28.4% and an average decline of about 21 yuan/ton. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate [8]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1,570 yuan/ton | Flat | - 5.99% | - 7.10% | - 9.77% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1,430 yuan/ton | - 0.69% | - 1.38% | - 11.73% | - 12.80% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 1,125 yuan/ton | - 3.02% | - 12.11% | - 4.66% | - 8.54% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian - produced) | 1,480 yuan/ton | 1.37% | - 5.73% | - 0.67% | - 3.90% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi - produced) | 1,650 yuan/ton | Flat | - 3.51% | 7.84% | - 2.37% | [9] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Increase | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,603.5 yuan/ton | 5.39% | 1,618 yuan/ton | 1,532 yuan/ton | 21,000 | 5,447 | 12,791 | - 3,916 | | Coking Coal | | 1,126.5 points | 6.07% | 1,136.5 points | 1,057.5 points | 1,700,451 | 752,463 | 501,331 | 4,320 | [14] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to coke and coking coal inventories, as well as production and operation data of steel mills, coking plants, and coal washing plants, including 230 independent coking plant coke inventories, 247 steel mill coking plant coke inventories, port coke total inventories, etc. [15][16][19] Market Outlook - Coke: The futures market sentiment has turned from weak to strong, and the main contract has rebounded from a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the downstream restocking rhythm [5][34]. - Coking coal: The futures market sentiment has turned from weak to strong, and the main contract has rebounded from a low level. It is advisable to closely monitor whether there are new supply - favorable policies in the coal industry [5][34].