Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, steel prices fluctuated weakly due to the accumulation of industrial contradictions in the steel market during the holiday and the return of the trading logic to the industrial end [4][11][126] - Steel inventories continued to accumulate, with significant increases in all varieties but varying growth rates. Construction steel inventories had the most obvious increase, while plate inventories were also at the highest level in the same lunar period in recent years [4][24][28] - During the Spring Festival, the production of long - and short - process steel mills differed. Short - process steel mills' shutdown led to a decline in construction steel production, while long - process steel mills maintained stable production, and plate supply increased steadily. After the festival, short - process steel mills will resume production, but the probability of a significant increase in production is not high [4][49][57] - Steel demand continued to weaken, with all varieties experiencing a decline in demand but varying amplitudes. After the festival, steel demand will improve marginally, and there will be differences in performance between varieties. Infrastructure investment is expected to be optimistic, bringing an increase in construction steel demand, but the real estate fundamentals are weak. Plate demand still has concerns [4][72][126] - Although the industrial contradictions in the steel market during the holiday have accumulated and steel prices are still prone to pressure, the downstream demand is recovering, the steel market fundamentals will improve marginally, and with the fermentation of policy expectations, steel prices may stabilize and rebound in the peak season [5][13][127] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Steel prices fluctuated weakly in February - Due to the holiday, the industrial contradictions in the steel market accumulated, the trading logic returned to the industrial end, and steel prices were under pressure. As of February 27, the futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts decreased by 1.95% and 2.22% respectively compared with the end of last month, and the spot prices also declined [11] - In February, steel - related price differences changed. The basis strengthened, the futures price curve remained in a contango pattern but with a lower premium than in previous years, the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar shrank, and the regional spread of building materials returned to normal [12] - Looking forward, steel prices are still under pressure due to accumulated contradictions, but they are at a relatively low level. As demand recovers and policy expectations are strong, steel prices may stabilize and rebound in the peak season [13] 2. Steel inventories increased significantly - As of the week of February 27, the total inventory of the five major steel products increased by 44.40% month - on - month and 10.47% year - on - year. Construction steel and plate inventories both increased, with construction steel having a more significant increase [24][28] - Both steel social and factory inventories increased. Social inventory increased by 45.47% month - on - month, and factory inventory increased by 41.93% month - on - month [29] - Rebar inventory increased significantly during the holiday, and the de - stocking pressure increased. The total rebar inventory increased by 68.36% month - on - month, and the inventory - to - sales ratio was at a relatively high level. The social inventory of rebar had obvious regional differentiation [36][37] - Hot - rolled coil inventory remained high, and the pressure needed to be relieved. The total hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 27.16% month - on - month and year - on - year, and the inventories of its main downstream products also increased significantly [45] 3. Steel supply increased steadily - In 2026, steel mill production was relatively stable, and steel supply increased steadily. The daily average crude steel production of key steel enterprises in January increased significantly compared with the previous month but was still lower than the same period last year [49] - High - frequency data showed that steel mill production was stable, and supply increased steadily, with obvious differences between varieties. Due to the shutdown of short - process steel mills during the holiday, the output of construction steel decreased, while the output of plates increased steadily [52][56] - Steel mill profitability did not improve. The proportion of profitable steel mills was relatively low, and the profitability of different regions was also differentiated. After the festival, short - process steel mills will resume production, but the probability of a significant increase in production is not high [57] - Rebar production was low during the holiday but is expected to increase after the festival, and the supply pressure may increase. Hot - rolled coil production remained high, and the supply pressure needed to be relieved [62][67] 4. Steel demand improved marginally 4.1 High - frequency indicators showed seasonal weakness - Due to the holiday, steel demand weakened, and high - frequency indicators showed a seasonal decline. In February, the total steel demand decreased by 18.90% month - on - month and 11.66% year - on - year. The demand for construction steel decreased more significantly [72] - Rebar demand will improve marginally, but the performance of downstream industries varies, and the quality of peak - season demand needs further observation. Hot - rolled coil demand was weak and stable, and there were still concerns about demand [78][85] 4.2 Steel exports faced challenges - In 2025, China's steel exports were strong. In December, the export volume reached a monthly record high, and the annual export volume also refreshed the record. The export of some varieties showed significant growth, and the export destinations were also differentiated [92][93][95] - In 2026, although there is still arbitrage momentum for direct steel exports, the output impulse may face more policy restrictions, and there is a risk of a decline in direct exports [95] 4.3 The domestic economy showed resilience - In January 2026, the core CPI showed a "good start" sign of inflation, and the PPI was supported by input factors, but the manufacturing PMI declined, and the "good start" of credit was not satisfactory [100][101][103] - In the real estate market, sales were under pressure year - on - year, and the improvement of real estate enterprise funds was limited, but positive policies were continuously introduced, and the downward drag effect may weaken. Infrastructure investment is expected to be optimistic, and there may be an inflection point in the industry, which may bring an increase in steel demand [104][108][118] 5. Conclusion - The industrial contradictions in the steel market accumulated during the holiday, and steel prices fluctuated weakly in February. Steel inventories increased significantly, supply was stable with variety differentiation, and demand continued to weaken but will improve marginally after the festival [126] - Although steel prices are still under pressure, with the recovery of demand and the fermentation of policy expectations, steel prices may stabilize and rebound in the peak season, and attention should be paid to demand performance and domestic policies [127]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The investment growth rate of the steel industry has declined across the board, leading to an increased expectation of policy easing. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with the weakness on the demand side being more evident. It is expected that the short - term steel plate will fluctuate within a narrow range [4][166][167] - For iron ore, the molten iron output continues to rise, and attention should be paid to the demand situation of steel products [169] Summary by Directory Steel Products Price - This week, black - series commodities rose across the board, with coking coal and coke prices leading the increase. The increase of rebar prices was greater than that of hot - rolled coils. In the international market, hot - rolled coil prices in the US, EU, Japan, and India decreased slightly, while most other markets showed a stable - to - rising trend. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils, as well as various price spreads, changed to different extents [6][7] Supply - In August, the daily average output of crude steel and pig iron continued to decline. In the current week, the weekly output of rebar decreased, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased, and the output of five major steel products decreased. The blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and molten iron output increased slightly, while the electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate decreased [42][50][66] Demand - In August, the investment growth rate in the real estate and infrastructure sectors continued to decline, while the growth rate of automobile sales increased, and the growth rate of excavator sales decreased. The national building materials trading volume, cement mill operating rate, and rebar apparent demand increased, while the hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased [81][88][92] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 5.13 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 137.51 million tons. The total rebar inventory decreased by 3.58 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 184.82 million tons. The total hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 4.67 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 43.74 million tons [124][129][142] Profit - This week, the on - screen profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils narrowed, the profits of long - process steelmaking increased, and the losses of short - process steel mills widened [149][151] Trading Data - This week, the positions and settled funds of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased, while the trading volume decreased slightly [152] Options - Data on rebar options, including historical volatility, historical volatility cones, and put - call ratios of positions and trading volumes, are presented [156][160] Iron Ore Price - This week, the on - screen price of iron ore increased, and the closing price of the main contract i2601 was 807.5 yuan/ton. The spot prices at ports showed mixed trends, with the spread between high - and medium - grade ores widening and the spread between medium - and low - grade ores narrowing [171][177][182] Supply - The shipping volumes from Australia and Brazil increased significantly, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 860,000 tons compared with the previous period [170] Demand - The molten iron output increased to 2.4102 million tons, and the pig iron output in August was 69.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1% [170] Inventory - The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 143.8168 million tons, a decrease of 744,400 tons compared with the previous period. The steel mill inventory increased by 3.16 million tons to 93.09 million tons, and the consumption ratio of imported ore inventory was 31.2 [170] Profit - The profits of long - process rebar production increased, while the profits of short - process steel mills continued to decline [170]

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing a decline in prices due to weak demand and increased inventory levels, with significant variations in the performance of different steel products [1][2][6]. Supply - Iron element production increased by 18 million tons year-on-year, a growth rate of 3.1%. In August, production rebounded compared to July, primarily due to a notable increase in scrap steel consumption [3]. - The production of five major steel products rose by 64,000 tons to 8.78 million tons, with rebar production decreasing by 58,000 tons to 2.15 million tons, while hot-rolled coil production increased by 96,000 tons to 3.25 million tons [3]. Demand - From January to July, the apparent demand for the five major steel products remained flat year-on-year, with a slight decrease of 0.2%, while production fell by 1.3% [4]. - Domestic demand decreased year-on-year, but external demand increased significantly, leading to an overall increase in steel demand despite a seasonal decline [4]. Inventory - There has been a significant accumulation of inventory, primarily among traders, with the total inventory of the five major steel products increasing by 250,000 tons to 14.41 million tons [5]. - Rebar inventory rose by 200,000 tons to 6.07 million tons, indicating a mismatch between supply and demand [5]. Price Trends - The steel market sentiment has weakened, leading to a decline in steel prices, with rebar prices falling more than hot-rolled coil prices due to a noticeable drop in demand for rebar [6]. - The price difference between rebar and hot-rolled coil has narrowed, indicating a shift in market dynamics [6].

Core Viewpoint - The steel market shows signs of price increases driven by rising costs and demand recovery, with specific price movements noted in various steel products [1][2][4]. Supply - Iron element production from January to July increased by 18 million tons, a growth rate of 3.1%, with production in July remaining stable compared to June [3] - The production of rebar rose by 100,000 tons to 2.21 million tons, indicating a notable recovery in rebar production [3] - Hot-rolled steel production decreased by 79,000 tons to 3.14 million tons, showing a significant decline [3] Demand - From January to July, the apparent demand for the five major steel products remained nearly flat, with a slight decrease of 0.2%, while production fell by 1.3% [4] - Domestic demand decreased year-on-year, but external demand increased significantly, with direct and indirect steel exports rising [4] - The apparent demand for rebar increased by 74,000 tons to 2.108 million tons, while hot-rolled steel demand decreased by 138,000 tons to 3.06 million tons [4] Inventory - Inventory levels have increased for two consecutive weeks, primarily due to rising trader inventories, while steel mill inventory growth was not significant [5] - The inventory of the five major steel products rose by 235,000 tons to 13.754 million tons, with rebar inventory increasing by 103,900 tons to 5.567 million tons [5] - The supply-demand balance for rebar has improved, while the supply-demand situation for plate products remains weak [5]