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Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing a mixed trend with weak spot prices, while the demand and supply dynamics indicate a potential for inventory adjustments and production cuts in response to market conditions [1][2][3][4][5][6] Supply - Iron element production increased by 5% year-on-year from January to September, but the growth rate narrowed in October due to environmental restrictions in Tangshan, leading to a decrease in molten iron output by 30,000 tons to 2.37 million tons [3] - The production of the five major steel products remained stable year-on-year, with a slight increase of 100,000 tons to 8.75 million tons, although the output of rebar and hot-rolled steel fell short of demand [3] Demand - Domestic demand expectations remain weak, while exports are holding at high levels, supported by low prices [4] - The total demand for steel has recovered to a year-on-year flat position, with an increase of 240,000 tons to 9.12 million tons, particularly for rebar and hot-rolled steel [4] Inventory - Inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 410,000 tons to 15.13 million tons, with rebar and hot-rolled steel inventories also declining [5] - Despite the decrease in inventory, production levels are below demand, indicating a potential for continued inventory reduction, although the rate of reduction for hot-rolled steel is slower [5] Cost and Profit - Steel profits have significantly declined from high levels, with the current profit ranking from highest to lowest being billet, hot-rolled, rebar, and cold-rolled [2] - The cost support for iron element is weak, while carbon element costs provide some support [2] Market Outlook - The steel market is expected to continue its downward trend, with the need to compress profits to curb production [6] - The focus remains on the supply side of coking coal, with rebar and hot-rolled steel expected to trade within specific price ranges [6]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Last week, the year-on-year inventories of hot-rolled coils and cold-rolled coils reached new highs in recent years, with prominent contradictions. Since the peak season this year, steel inventories have been rising, mainly due to weak demand and high production capacity, and steel profits have been continuously compressed. Due to the support of terminal demand, especially exports, the market is relatively restrained in shorting steel profits. The high steel production leads to strong demand for raw materials, providing some cost support for steel prices. Currently, steel inventories are large and terminal demand is weak. Steel may start to reduce production and enter a negative feedback loop. Even if production is not reduced, steel prices are expected to remain weak. The recommended operation strategy is to participate in short-term short positions [37]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1.1 Hot-rolled Coil Main Contract Trend - This week, the hot-rolled coil main contract showed short-term narrow-range fluctuations and continued its weak trend [9]. 1.2 Hot-rolled Coil Spot Trend - The spot market showed weak fluctuations [11]. 2.1 Hot-rolled Coil Futures-Spot Price Difference Trend - The 01 basis is 61, the 05 basis is 60, and the 10 basis is 26 [14]. 2.2 Cold-Hot Price Difference - No specific data is provided in the report. 3.1 Hot-rolled Coil Profit - The production profit is 84, the 01 contract's on-screen profit is 144, the 05 contract's on-screen profit is 110, and the 10 contract's on-screen profit is 127 [21]. 3.2 Hot-rolled Coil Production - The hot-rolled coil production is 321.84, the cold-rolled coil production is 87.41, the rebar production is 201.16, and the production of the five major steel products is 856.95 [24]. 3.3 Raw Materials - No specific data is provided in the report. 3.4 Hot-rolled Coil Inventory - The hot-rolled coil inventory is 419.19, the cold-rolled coil inventory is 183.45, the rebar inventory is 641.05, and the inventory of the five major steel products is 1582.26 [29]. 3.5 Terminal Demand - No specific data is provided in the report. 3.6 Export - Exports continued to strengthen month-on-month, and exports supported demand [34]. 4.后市展望 - The market situation and operation strategy are the same as the core view [37].

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing a decline in prices due to weak demand and increased inventory levels, with significant variations in the performance of different steel products [1][2][6]. Supply - Iron element production increased by 18 million tons year-on-year, a growth rate of 3.1%. In August, production rebounded compared to July, primarily due to a notable increase in scrap steel consumption [3]. - The production of five major steel products rose by 64,000 tons to 8.78 million tons, with rebar production decreasing by 58,000 tons to 2.15 million tons, while hot-rolled coil production increased by 96,000 tons to 3.25 million tons [3]. Demand - From January to July, the apparent demand for the five major steel products remained flat year-on-year, with a slight decrease of 0.2%, while production fell by 1.3% [4]. - Domestic demand decreased year-on-year, but external demand increased significantly, leading to an overall increase in steel demand despite a seasonal decline [4]. Inventory - There has been a significant accumulation of inventory, primarily among traders, with the total inventory of the five major steel products increasing by 250,000 tons to 14.41 million tons [5]. - Rebar inventory rose by 200,000 tons to 6.07 million tons, indicating a mismatch between supply and demand [5]. Price Trends - The steel market sentiment has weakened, leading to a decline in steel prices, with rebar prices falling more than hot-rolled coil prices due to a noticeable drop in demand for rebar [6]. - The price difference between rebar and hot-rolled coil has narrowed, indicating a shift in market dynamics [6].