Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but low operability on the trading floor) [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but low operability on the trading floor) [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend, with poor operability on the current trading floor, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Coke: ★☆★ (The meaning is not clearly defined in the given content) [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but low operability on the trading floor) [1] - Silicon Manganese: Not provided in the given content - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but low operability on the trading floor) [1] Core Views of the Report - The overall demand for steel is weak, but the supply pressure is gradually easing. The steel market has the momentum to rebound and repair the basis, but the upside is restricted by weak demand [2]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are relatively loose, and the market is expected to fluctuate mainly [3]. - Coke and coking coal prices are likely to fluctuate weakly due to abundant carbon supply, seasonal decline in iron - water production, and strong price - squeezing sentiment from steel mills [4][6]. - For silicon manganese, the bottom - support expectation has shifted downward due to factors such as the expected decrease in power cost and chemical coke price and the slow increase in inventory [7]. - For ferrosilicon, the bottom - support strength will be tested as the supply remains at a high level, although the overall demand still has some resilience [8]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market continued to rebound today. The apparent demand for thread improved, production increased, and inventory decreased. The demand for hot - rolled coil recovered, production increased slightly, and inventory began to decline [2]. - Downstream acceptance capacity is insufficient, steel mills are in a loss state, and there is a high possibility of further blast - furnace production cuts. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of environmental protection production restrictions in Tangshan and other places [2]. - Real - estate investment decline continued to expand, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to decline. Domestic demand is still weak, and steel exports have declined from the high level. The spot price is relatively firm, and the futures market has the momentum to rebound and repair the basis, but weak demand restricts the upside [2]. Iron Ore - The iron - ore futures market fluctuated today. The global shipment decreased month - on - month but was still stronger than the same period. The domestic arrival volume rebounded significantly to the highest level this year, and the port inventory decreased last week and is expected to resume the accumulation trend this week [3]. - The apparent demand for steel rebounded from a low level last week, but it has entered the off - season, and steel mills' profitability is still weakening. Pig - iron production is in a seasonal decline trend, and the decline rate has slowed down. Attention should be paid to whether there will be favorable policies at the macro level [3]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are relatively loose, and the market is expected to fluctuate mainly [3]. Coke - The coke price fluctuated during the day. Coking profits are average, and daily production is slightly decreasing. Coke inventory has increased slightly, downstream purchases on a small scale as needed, and inventory changes are not significant. Traders' purchasing willingness is average [4]. - The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream pig - iron production is still at a high level, but inventory has decreased slightly. The total inventory of coking coal decreased slightly month - on - month, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. Although there is a seasonal decline in pig - iron production, the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. Steel mills' profitability is average, and they have a strong sentiment to squeeze raw - material prices. The coke futures market is at a premium, and the price is likely to fluctuate weakly [4]. Coking Coal - The coking - coal price fluctuated weakly during the day. Attention should be paid to whether the number of Mongolian coal customs - clearance vehicles will remain low due to weather factors [6]. - Coking - coal mine production has decreased slightly, spot auction transactions are average, and transaction prices are mainly falling. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream pig - iron production is still at a high level, but inventory has decreased slightly. The total inventory of coking coal decreased slightly month - on - month, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. Although there is a seasonal decline in pig - iron production, the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. Steel mills' profitability is average, and they have a strong sentiment to squeeze raw - material prices. The coking - coal futures market is at a discount to Mongolian coal, and the price is likely to fluctuate weakly [6]. Silicon Manganese - The silicon - manganese price fluctuated during the day. The market's expectation of coal - mine supply guarantee has increased, and there is an expected decrease in power cost and chemical coke price [7]. - Pig - iron production has rebounded to a high - level range. Silicon - manganese weekly production has decreased slightly but is still at a relatively high level, and silicon - manganese inventory is slowly increasing. Spot ore prices have mixed trends, with high - grade oxidized ore rising slightly and semi - carbonate ore falling slightly. Manganese ore inventory has increased slightly, and the contradiction is not prominent. The bottom - support expectation has shifted downward [7]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price fluctuated during the day. The market's expectation of coal - mine supply guarantee has increased, and there is an expected decrease in power cost and blue - charcoal price [8]. - Pig - iron production has rebounded to a high - level range. Export demand has decreased to above 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has increased month - on - month, and secondary demand has increased marginally. The overall demand still has some resilience. Ferrosilicon supply remains at a high level, and the bottom - support strength will be tested [8].

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing a mixed trend with weak spot prices, while the demand and supply dynamics indicate a potential for inventory adjustments and production cuts in response to market conditions [1][2][3][4][5][6] Supply - Iron element production increased by 5% year-on-year from January to September, but the growth rate narrowed in October due to environmental restrictions in Tangshan, leading to a decrease in molten iron output by 30,000 tons to 2.37 million tons [3] - The production of the five major steel products remained stable year-on-year, with a slight increase of 100,000 tons to 8.75 million tons, although the output of rebar and hot-rolled steel fell short of demand [3] Demand - Domestic demand expectations remain weak, while exports are holding at high levels, supported by low prices [4] - The total demand for steel has recovered to a year-on-year flat position, with an increase of 240,000 tons to 9.12 million tons, particularly for rebar and hot-rolled steel [4] Inventory - Inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 410,000 tons to 15.13 million tons, with rebar and hot-rolled steel inventories also declining [5] - Despite the decrease in inventory, production levels are below demand, indicating a potential for continued inventory reduction, although the rate of reduction for hot-rolled steel is slower [5] Cost and Profit - Steel profits have significantly declined from high levels, with the current profit ranking from highest to lowest being billet, hot-rolled, rebar, and cold-rolled [2] - The cost support for iron element is weak, while carbon element costs provide some support [2] Market Outlook - The steel market is expected to continue its downward trend, with the need to compress profits to curb production [6] - The focus remains on the supply side of coking coal, with rebar and hot-rolled steel expected to trade within specific price ranges [6]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Last week, the year-on-year inventories of hot-rolled coils and cold-rolled coils reached new highs in recent years, with prominent contradictions. Since the peak season this year, steel inventories have been rising, mainly due to weak demand and high production capacity, and steel profits have been continuously compressed. Due to the support of terminal demand, especially exports, the market is relatively restrained in shorting steel profits. The high steel production leads to strong demand for raw materials, providing some cost support for steel prices. Currently, steel inventories are large and terminal demand is weak. Steel may start to reduce production and enter a negative feedback loop. Even if production is not reduced, steel prices are expected to remain weak. The recommended operation strategy is to participate in short-term short positions [37]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1.1 Hot-rolled Coil Main Contract Trend - This week, the hot-rolled coil main contract showed short-term narrow-range fluctuations and continued its weak trend [9]. 1.2 Hot-rolled Coil Spot Trend - The spot market showed weak fluctuations [11]. 2.1 Hot-rolled Coil Futures-Spot Price Difference Trend - The 01 basis is 61, the 05 basis is 60, and the 10 basis is 26 [14]. 2.2 Cold-Hot Price Difference - No specific data is provided in the report. 3.1 Hot-rolled Coil Profit - The production profit is 84, the 01 contract's on-screen profit is 144, the 05 contract's on-screen profit is 110, and the 10 contract's on-screen profit is 127 [21]. 3.2 Hot-rolled Coil Production - The hot-rolled coil production is 321.84, the cold-rolled coil production is 87.41, the rebar production is 201.16, and the production of the five major steel products is 856.95 [24]. 3.3 Raw Materials - No specific data is provided in the report. 3.4 Hot-rolled Coil Inventory - The hot-rolled coil inventory is 419.19, the cold-rolled coil inventory is 183.45, the rebar inventory is 641.05, and the inventory of the five major steel products is 1582.26 [29]. 3.5 Terminal Demand - No specific data is provided in the report. 3.6 Export - Exports continued to strengthen month-on-month, and exports supported demand [34]. 4.后市展望 - The market situation and operation strategy are the same as the core view [37].

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing a decline in prices due to weak demand and increased inventory levels, with significant variations in the performance of different steel products [1][2][6]. Supply - Iron element production increased by 18 million tons year-on-year, a growth rate of 3.1%. In August, production rebounded compared to July, primarily due to a notable increase in scrap steel consumption [3]. - The production of five major steel products rose by 64,000 tons to 8.78 million tons, with rebar production decreasing by 58,000 tons to 2.15 million tons, while hot-rolled coil production increased by 96,000 tons to 3.25 million tons [3]. Demand - From January to July, the apparent demand for the five major steel products remained flat year-on-year, with a slight decrease of 0.2%, while production fell by 1.3% [4]. - Domestic demand decreased year-on-year, but external demand increased significantly, leading to an overall increase in steel demand despite a seasonal decline [4]. Inventory - There has been a significant accumulation of inventory, primarily among traders, with the total inventory of the five major steel products increasing by 250,000 tons to 14.41 million tons [5]. - Rebar inventory rose by 200,000 tons to 6.07 million tons, indicating a mismatch between supply and demand [5]. Price Trends - The steel market sentiment has weakened, leading to a decline in steel prices, with rebar prices falling more than hot-rolled coil prices due to a noticeable drop in demand for rebar [6]. - The price difference between rebar and hot-rolled coil has narrowed, indicating a shift in market dynamics [6].